Canada Election 2015

[Bcasey25raptor]

I can't remember 2011 very well let alone the build up in the last few weeks before the election.

However pouring over the numbers shows me the conservatives are almost always under report.

I think a good 1 in 3 Canadians currently plan on voting Tory.

Since
1) NDP is collapsing and are not the force they were in 2011
2) Tory support will be 4% less
3) liveral support will be again in the low to mid 30s

I think the seat totals will be similar to 2011 but with the Sears for liberals and NDP refersed.

160 Tory
130 liberal
40 NDP
3 greens
5 bloc.

Edit: friend just shared an article with me fear there are anow more seniorsin Canada then children.

Based on the numbers, vote division, harpers popularity, and older demographics, I now see the CPC as the new Natural Governing Party.

This election was the one to beat the Tories. This is as low as their popularity gets.

Knowing this I predict the next 20 years will be 75% Tory governments.

[shreddog]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

... from the navigable waters act being all but destroyed to ...

Simple question, how did/does the navigable waters act protect the environment?? (You can refer to either NPA or NWPA).

Is it Clause 20? Or how about clause 23? Seriously, can you point to something, anything in either the NWPA or the NPA that has an environmental focus. I have read both and there is nothing about chemical introduction, species destruction, turbidity impact, aquatic biological impact, temperature alteration - any of the classic indicators of environmental protection.

And more importantly, can you point to any clause in the NPA that supersedes that in Alberta's Environmental Protection and Enhancement Act or Water Act or BC's Environmental Management Act or Environmental Assessment Act?

BTW, what the Conbots did was not to neuter the Act per se but restrict it's applicability. Namely it no longer applies to rivers navigable only by kayak!

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Yes the Duffy trial is now on hiatus until after the election (thank God).

If you'd like, maybe I could text the Duff and see if he wouldn't mind wearing a niqab during his perambulations around downtown Ottawa. That might help stimulate some debate......

Lol!

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

No kidding, eh?

Téléjournal now reports TWO (2)!! women have tried to wear a niqab for a citizenship oath since 2011.

Suspect that this issue emotionally resonates with the so-called `pure laine` Québécois... but I will defer to my QC friends on here as to whether my assessment is correct or not.

Many Muslim women here are also staunchly against it, the argument being that's it's precisely the kind of oppressive 🞵🞵🞵🞵 they moved away from. (And no, those aren't buying the idea that everyone wears that of their own volition.)

Something like 93% are against it, clearly it's not only the "pure laine" but plenty others too.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

Please can we drop the niqab thing?!?!? I'm begging you guys!

Only if you drop the rhetoric and cheap shots.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by manny_santos

This niqab issue is a real distraction and I'm tired of it being such a big part of this election campaign.

It is? (in Ontario?)

Or were you just referring to... this thread?

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by lio45

Something like 93% are against it, clearly it's not only the "pure laine" but plenty others too.

Understood. But perhaps I should have clarified.

Those now moving to the Cons and BQ from the NDP in QC (if ya believe public opinion polls) are more likely those rural & small town "pure laine" types? I dunno. Just speculation and conjecture on my part.

[lio45]

Freshly updated riding projections.


TCTC: http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/canada-2015.html

132
106
97
2
1



308: http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/poll-tracker/2015/index.html

127
110
99
1
1

[ssiguy]

I don't know where you are coming up with only 40 seats for the NDP.

Just because their support is dropping in Quebec doesn't mean they will lose their seat because their support in some seats is so far ahead and even if they fall their decline will probably benefit both the BLOC and Liberals equally.

When you look at the breakdown of chances of winning a riding, anything over about 80% is pretty rock solid so I went to the site and found that the NDP has 29 seats in Quebec, 15 seats in Ontario, and 6 seats in BC which are all over 80% chance of winning. They have 3 sure wins in AC so we are at a MINIMUM of 50 seats. Again they also assumes that their decline will go to only one competitor which of course will never happen.

Also the ABC seat will overall help the Liberals more things can vary greatly on a seat by seat basis. In ridings where the Liberals don't have a chance and the NDP do you will also see Liberals switching their vote to NDP. Quebec however is a bit of an exception as they have another left wing alternative in the BLOC. The NDP could run into trouble in SK/AB as the roughly 8 seats they have a shot at none of them are very secure.

Still, I can't see the NDP, at the very minimum, getting less than 80 seats. The reality is there really are not that many seats up for grabs right now.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

Understood. But perhaps I should have clarified.

Those now moving to the Cons and BQ from the NDP in QC (if ya believe public opinion polls) are those rural & small town "pure laine" types? I dunno. Just speculation and conjecture on my part.

Small towns and "the regions", but Greater Montreal too... and midsized cities as well... basically those voters who used to regularly vote Bloc back when the NDP was not at all on the radar here (pre-Layton-Crush).

And yes, traditional Bloc voters are generally more pure laine than average. Immigrants are usually less keen on the idea of leaving Canada, and are less likely to hop on board the project of "our own country".

So if the question is, right now, the voters the NDP is likely to be leaking (back) to the Bloc, what's their profile, then yes, they're Francophone, and usually not immigrants, but not only small towns, Montreal's suburbs too.

Basically the profile of the typical Bloc voter in the previous string of elections excepted 2011. That is the (relatively new) NDP voter who might consider leaving their new adopted party over this. As I explained in an earlier post... this issue (and the ensuing clash in values) is a wake up call that really highlights the fact that the NDP isn't "our party" at all. (The way, say, the CPC is, and especially used to be, the Prairies' party.) Contrary to what some might have thought for a little while.

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by shreddog

Simple question, how did/does the navigable waters act protect the environment?? (You can refer to either NPA or NWPA).

Is it Clause 20? Or how about clause 23? Seriously, can you point to something, anything in either the NWPA or the NPA that has an environmental focus. I have read both and there is nothing about chemical introduction, species destruction, turbidity impact, aquatic biological impact, temperature alteration - any of the classic indicators of environmental protection.

And more importantly, can you point to any clause in the NPA that supersedes that in Alberta's Environmental Protection and Enhancement Act or Water Act or BC's Environmental Management Act or Environmental Assessment Act?

BTW, what the Conbots did was not to neuter the Act per se but restrict it's applicability. Namely it no longer applies to rivers navigable only by kayak!

Correct me if I'm wrong but was it not intended to trigger further environmental studies any time there was proposed construction that could impact a waterway? The act itself didn't spell out specifics about the environment but it kickstarted the process of evaluating the impacts on the river. On its own you are correct it wouldn't protect anything. The point was that it was part of a system and process that would study the effects of say, a pipeline, on every waterway it would impact. After the Conservatives ripped this to shreds though, things like the Northern Gateway pipeline no longer required study of the hundreds of creeks, rivers and lakes they would impact but only 1 or 2 designated ones. To me that's silly because there's no telling where a break could occur and simply studying what would happen at an endpoint wouldn't give you the same understanding as what would happen at say a mountain tributary that feeds into other rivers and lakes.

[Dmajackson]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

Edit: friend just shared an article with me fear there are anow more seniorsin Canada then children.

Based on the numbers, vote division, harpers popularity, and older demographics, I now see the CPC as the new Natural Governing Party.

This election was the one to beat the Tories. This is as low as their popularity gets.

Knowing this I predict the next 20 years will be 75% Tory governments.

You do realize that the region in Canada with the highest percentage of seniors is Atlantic Canada and the CPC is predicted to take 4/26 seats. While Alberta is the youngest province in Canada and the CPC is dominant there.

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by lio45

Only if you drop the rhetoric and cheap shots.

What cheap shots? Harper being a robot lizard person? come on you guys have your fun with JT's hair. Plus you have the MIGS cheer squad.

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by lio45

As I explained in an earlier post... this issue (and the ensuing clash in values) is a wake up call that really highlights the fact that the NDP isn't "our party" at all. (The way, say, the CPC is, and especially used to be, the Prairies' party.) Contrary to what some might have thought for a little while.

I will add in another analogy. Both the BQ and Reform Party `broke out concurrently` back during the 1993 election for their respective `regional` interests.

Reform basically swept both BC and AB back in 1993 (and during the 1990`s as well) as a protest vote against the status quo. The genesis for both the BQ and Reform were derived from the same `seed`.

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by Dmajackson

You do realize that the region in Canada with the highest percentage of seniors is Atlantic Canada and the CPC is predicted to take 4/26 seats. While Alberta is the youngest province in Canada and the CPC is dominant there.

Agreed with caveats. Atlantic Canada also has a very strong `Liberal` (or even red tory) tradition and unique political history.

OTOH, Alberta also has a very strong small `c` conservative political historical tradition.

It`s the 55+ age demographic in both BC and (I suspect) ON (along with the west generally) that vote skews toward the right and also has the highest voter turnout.

My 2 cents.

[shreddog]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

Correct me if I'm wrong but was it not intended to trigger further environmental studies any time there was proposed construction that could impact a waterway?

Nope - NWPA or NPA only relate to impacting navigation, it is NOT a catalyst for other studies. Claims have to be made against the relevant act. NWPA/NPA was used as a potential roadblock primarily based on clauses 20 and 23 - which have NO environmental impact.

PS. I forgot to mention in the previous post regarding the humptyback whales and the tinhat conspiracy. You do know that NOAA also removed them from the US Endangered Species Act since they too felt that since the population for Northern humps is now over 22000 (from a low of 5000) and that it's protection success story - not a conspiracy one. Who knows, maybe Harpo and Obama are buds afterall?

[Migs]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

We'll see what happens come E-day. Is the Duffy trial on hold until after then? I'm still waiting for more 🞵🞵🞵🞵 to come out.

Hoping for a wing & a prayer are ya?

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

Agreed with caveats. Atlantic Canada also has a very strong `Liberal` (or even red tory) tradition and unique political history.

OTOH, Alberta also has a very strong small `c` conservative political historical tradition.

It`s the 55+ age demographic in both BC and (I suspect) ON (along with the west generally) that vote skews toward the right and also has the highest voter turnout.

My 2 cents.

As for seniors:
Definitely not always the case in Ontario. Provincially, MANY if not most seniors voted for Kathleen Wynne and the Liberals over Tim Hudak and the PCs. Many seniors here are red-tory and centrist types who don't like politicians too far to the right or left. Another example: Remember federally when Ontario voted almost entirely Liberal (1993-2004) when the PC Party was dead as the Reform Party was too far to the right.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

I can't remember 2011 very well let alone the build up in the last few weeks before the election.

However pouring over the numbers shows me the conservatives are almost always under report.

I think a good 1 in 3 Canadians currently plan on voting Tory.

Since
1) NDP is collapsing and are not the force they were in 2011
2) Tory support will be 4% less
3) liveral support will be again in the low to mid 30s

I think the seat totals will be similar to 2011 but with the Sears for liberals and NDP refersed.

160 Tory
130 liberal
40 NDP
3 greens
5 bloc.

Edit: friend just shared an article with me fear there are anow more seniorsin Canada then children.

Based on the numbers, vote division, harpers popularity, and older demographics, I now see the CPC as the new Natural Governing Party.

This election was the one to beat the Tories. This is as low as their popularity gets.

Knowing this I predict the next 20 years will be 75% Tory governments.

I disagree that the NDP will lose that many seats. The party is still pretty strong in Quebec and will likely gain seats where I live in Northern Ontario. The Liberal name is still a pretty bad one in Quebec and I don't see many Quebeckers wanting to vote Bloc or CPC when they really think about it. The Niqab thing has been overblown and won't be on most peoples' minds on election day. The NDP will likely hang on to most of its seats.

I do agree that Conservative support is at about 35% right now. Enough to win a minority. But it remains to be seen if Conservative voters have a high voter turnout. And how efficiently their support is distributed in terms of winning seats.

I strongly disagree about the CPC being the new natural governing party. They would need to win an election with at least 45% of the total votes before they could be called that in my opinion.

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by Loco101

As for seniors:
Definitely not always the case in Ontario. Provincially, MANY if not most seniors voted for Kathleen Wynne and the Liberals over Tim Hudak and the PCs. Many seniors here are red-tory and centrist types who don't like politicians too far to the right or left. Another example: Remember federally when Ontario voted almost entirely Liberal (1993-2004) when the PC Party was dead as the Reform Party was too far to the right.

True. However Hudak would not have flown in either BC, AB, SK, or MB either in my honest opinion. His quasi-radical platform spooked too many people in ON and would have done same thing here. Certainly not old school ON PC such as Bill Davis.

And the Reform Party was also perceived suspiciously in ON, back in the 1990`s, as some unknown western-based, right-wing political animal invading their (centrist, red tory) territory. IMHO.

Even then, apparently quite a few 1990`s seat races in ON resulted in the Reform and PCs splitting the vote allowing the Liberals to sneak up the middle.

Seems to have all changed with the Conservative party becoming or perceived to be more `mainstream`, over the past decade, with many voting segments in ON IMHO.

In any event, am quite certain that ON`s 905-belt will decide this year`s election outcome.