Canada Election 2015 - Page 21

Aylmer · #**401** Posted **Sep 23, 2015, 6:47 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Well that settles it - a new Conservative minority government would be short-lived. How long does a new government have before Parliament needs to sit/before a first Speech from the Throne?

The speech from the throne is the opening of a new Parliament, so it'll be the first sitting. The government then proposes a Throne Speech Bill which can either be adopted or rejected.

That said, that wouldn't be the first opportunity for the opposition parties to form government: they would probably notify the GG that they would not support a minority CPC government and that they have drafted a governing agreement (basically a promise not to force an election for two years or whatever length of time). The GG would probably grant Harper a certain length of time to try and form a government (probably through negotiations with the NDP or LPC) before granting the second party a mandate to seek the confidence of the House.

But even if Harper gets the GG to allow him a Throne Speech and the opposition rejects it, the GG probably wouldn't declare an election so soon after one was held and will opt instead to just grant the second party a mandate.

So the chances of 'twin elections' is pretty low, but since this would be an unprecedented situation in Canada, it's hard to predict.

Migs · #**402** Posted **Sep 23, 2015, 7:03 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aylmer

The speech from the throne is the opening of a new Parliament, so it'll be the first sitting. The government then proposes a Throne Speech Bill which can either be adopted or rejected.

That said, that wouldn't be the first opportunity for the opposition parties to form government: they would probably notify the GG that they would not support a minority CPC government and that they have drafted a governing agreement (basically a promise not to force an election for two years or whatever length of time). The GG would probably grant Harper a certain length of time to try and form a government (probably through negotiations with the NDP or LPC) before granting the second party a mandate to seek the confidence of the House.

But even if Harper gets the GG to allow him a Throne Speech and the opposition rejects it, the GG probably wouldn't declare an election so soon after one was held and will opt instead to just grant the second party a mandate.

So the chances of 'twin elections' is pretty low, but since this would be an unprecedented situation in Canada, it's hard to predict.

And all these whispers of a coalition will push the Conservatives to a majority just like last time.

flar · #**403** Posted **Sep 23, 2015, 7:19 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Migs

And all these whispers of a coalition will push the Conservatives to a majority just like last time.

Most of the 60+ percent that don't like the Conservatives really don't like the Conservatives.

Aylmer · #**404** Posted **Sep 23, 2015, 7:20 PM**

No, a coalition has been ruled out by the Liberals for better or for worse. I know you'll probably roll your eyes at this, but there is indeed a difference between a coalition government and a governing agreement.

Basically this -

Coalition = different parties are in the cabinet as ministers. So you could have a NDP health minister and a LPC finance minister.

Governing agreement = ONE party forms the cabinet, but it's supported by a second party which agrees to vote WITH the government on important votes in order to avoid forcing an election (Throne Speech bill, budget, etc.) for a certain period of time.

But what the hell: COALITION LEFTIES LOSE!!! HARPER WINS UNANIMITY!!!!!!

kiwi · #**405** Posted **Sep 23, 2015, 7:29 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Migs

And all these whispers of a coalition will push the Conservatives to a majority just like last time.

In 2011 the thought of the Bloc being part of the coalition pushed some Canadians to vote for the Conservatives. People really didn't like the prospect of an NDP/Liberal/Bloc coalition.

Now Quebeckers have voted for a federalist party in the NDP. I think that Canadians don't mind an NDP/Liberal coalition government and Canadians won't be afraid to vote for either the Liberal or the NDP.

eternallyme · #**406** Posted **Sep 23, 2015, 7:35 PM**

In this case, the Coalition argument has less strength. It is likely that NDP + LPC will be greater than 170 so they would have a majority between them (something that hasn't been the case in the last four elections) so the coalition would be much more legitimate. If the Bloc Quebecois end up as potential kingmakers, then it becomes a toxic stew...but as long as they are at zero seats projected, the fear factor is not an issue.

MonctonRad · #**407** Posted **Sep 23, 2015, 8:02 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by flar

Most of the 60+ percent that don't like the Conservatives really don't like the Conservatives.

Sounds like a Yogi Berra-ism (may he rest in peace).

As Yogi would have said, "it ain't over till it's over"...........

flar · #**408** Posted **Sep 23, 2015, 8:19 PM**

Good catch, I was just reading Yogi Berra quotes before I wrote that

kwoldtimer · #**409** Posted **Sep 23, 2015, 8:31 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Migs

And all these whispers of a coalition will push the Conservatives to a majority just like last time.

The "whispers of a coalition" come from the Harperites.

Although I admit, if the result is an NDP minority, I wouldn't mind a formal NDP/Liberal coalition. It could make for a very interesting, and very talented, Cabinet.

Migs · #**410** Posted **Sep 23, 2015, 8:36 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by flar

Most of the 60+ percent that don't like the Conservatives really don't like the Conservatives.

That's funny because I heard the exact same thing several times in 2011. Do you honestly think their aren't many moderate Liberal voters who are petrified of the socialist NDP?

Migs · #**411** Posted **Sep 23, 2015, 8:39 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by kiwi

In 2011 the thought of the Bloc being part of the coalition pushed some Canadians to vote for the Conservatives. People really didn't like the prospect of an NDP/Liberal/Bloc coalition.

Now Quebeckers have voted for a federalist party in the NDP. I think that Canadians don't mind an NDP/Liberal coalition government and Canadians won't be afraid to vote for either the Liberal or the NDP.

Have the NDP commented as of yet on the Niqab or succession this campaign?

ssiguy · #**412** Posted **Sep 23, 2015, 8:42 PM**

There is a new site you can link from the CBC Polltracker that is quite interesting.

It is an interactive map of the country by riding. Most of it just says what we already know but at the top of the map you can push "swing" ridings which highlights where the real battles are going to be fought and who will win the election. It reinforces what everyone already knows.............none of the parties have a hope in hell of coming even remotely close to a majority government and this is a 3-way battle for the history books.

All the polls in the world are not going to change the outcome by a huge amount. Nanos and all the others in the last month have consistently shown that the 3 parties ratings have all been within the margin of error. There maybe more pronounced changes regionally but even those will not make a huge difference. The NDP is not going to sweep Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives are not going to sweep Quebec, the Liberals are not going to sweep Alberta, and nobody is going to sweep BC or Ontario.

kwoldtimer · #**413** Posted **Sep 23, 2015, 8:47 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Migs

Have the NDP commented as of yet on the Niqab or succession this campaign?

Mulcair supports the status quo - i.e. a woman can wear the veil while taking the oath as long as she unveils for officials prior to the oath to establish her identity.

O-tacular · #**414** Posted **Sep 23, 2015, 9:13 PM**

With comments like this it's no wonder Harper tries to muzzle his candidates. They can't seem to help themselves from making bigoted remarks.

http://www.thestar.com/news/federal-elec...agenda-in-refugee-crisis-tim-harper.html

ssiguy · #**415** Posted **Sep 23, 2015, 9:17 PM**

^ had to leave so continuing on with my last post...............

In the final stretch the Conservatives have the advantage of not losing many votes. Their support is far more secure than the other 2 parties. Far more so than the Libs/NDP, the Cons can pretty such assume that 90% of the seats they have right now with the latest riding forecasts they can pretty much bank on getting. Their security is their strongest point but also their weakest.................they have nearly no growth potential. Give or take about 10 or 15 seats, what you see is what you'll get.

This leads us to the NDP and the Liberals. For these two it will come down to that critical ABC vote and in all my years of voting I have NEVER seen anything even close to the ABC strength of what it is now. When it comes to the ABC vote it will be the Liberals who are the beneficiaries.

The NDP are extremely strong in Quebec and doing well in BC but they have plateaued in both provinces and are not making any inroads to the crucial province of Ontario. In fact much of the gain in support and riding counts in Ontario for the Liberals have been far more at the expense of the NDP than the Conservatives in the last month.

When there are tight 3 way races then people vote with their heart and conviction hoping to seize the day. When the battle is between 2 main parties and an also-ran third then people in that 3rd case plug their noses and vote strategically...........they can't get their wanted MP so they will settle for second best and that will benefit the Liberals in battleground Ontario.

The ABC vote is very strong due to those against Harper don't just dislike the guy but absolutely hate him and will do anything to make sure he doesn't win again.

With all these endless polls this is the very crucial thing that they do not reflect. They ask who you would vote for TODAY...........people answer with conviction and idealism. When it comes to casting their ballot however, people are far more pragmatic and vote for the one that is closest to their beliefs and have the best chance of winning..................they vote strategically and that will hurt Harper far more than anyone and benefit the Liberals more than anyone.

My forecast?..................a Liberal minority government.

kwoldtimer · #**416** Posted **Sep 23, 2015, 9:30 PM**

Have the media asked Harper whether the Conservatives would support a Liberal minority?

lio45 · #**417** Posted **Sep 23, 2015, 9:31 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by geotag277

This sounds like whiny baby politics to me. It's a legislative assembly. If a proposed piece of legislation is characteristic of the representation that NDP representatives agree wtih, why wouldn't they support it?

I feel like these types of immature "take my ball and go home" politics are poisonous to our democracy. I think the likely outcome of these babies obstructing governance is exactly what happened last time there was a no confidence vote, and it didn't turn out well for the opposition.

In all honesty, there is no reason why a minority government cannot be fully functional and why the parties cannot compromise with each other on providing a wide net of representation. Clearly we have strong support for all three parties in this country, which means Canadians expect to be represented in some capacity by all three.

Hows about we all grow up, talk to each other, and show some maturity by actually attempting to have a functioning minority government in this country for once.

Completely agree!

"We don't even know what they're going to suggest, but whatever it is, we can already say we'll be totally opposed to it."

Extremely silly behavior from both NDP and LPC. I'd even say unbelievable, but in politics this type of BS unfortunately doesn't surprise me.

This purely childish attitude has me thinking that both Mulcair and Trudeau are Just Not Ready. (Actually not kidding.) Is it too much to ask to have adults in Parliament? (This just said, I have to point out my home riding elected a teenager last time, ironically.)

Why would you topple the CPC immediately if they're the ones who just got the most seats from Canadians? They deserve a fair shot at policy-making... at least wait 'till they (try to) do something inacceptable to you! This advance announcement is pure nonsense.

SignalHillHiker · #**418** Posted **Sep 23, 2015, 9:37 PM**

CBC transcribed "Jesus" as "Jeez". Not what he said.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/ryan-cleary-seamus-oregan-debate-1.3239287

lio45 · #**419** Posted **Sep 23, 2015, 9:38 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Have the media asked Harper whether the Conservatives would support a Liberal minority?

If he commits in advance to banding with the NDP to immediately topple a LPC minority without even letting the party who just got the most seats attempt to govern in a way acceptable to the other two parties, then yes, that kind of infantile behavior is completely unacceptable to me as a voter and taxpayer, and I'd ask Harper to grow up, and declare he's Just Not Ready for such a serious position. (Nicely consistent hair, though.)

CanSpice · #**420** Posted **Sep 23, 2015, 9:41 PM**

I'm voting NDP (I live in Peter Julian's riding and he's pretty much a shoe-in to get in) but I'd be fine with a Liberal minority. If I lived in a riding where the NDP and Liberals were closer I'd vote more strategically so that the Conservatives don't get in, but I don't so I won't.