Canada Election 2015

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

Part 1 of 4 - here is how I would rate the ridings right now. Starting in the west.

British Columbia

Burnaby South - Safe NDP

Victoria - Leaning Green

Kudos to your work eternallyme! I will give ya a B+/A- score on your BC predictions and ya are apparently in ON. Not bad. Not bad at all.

Now I have selected 2 foregoing BC ridings for some interesting "on the ground" intel. Apparently, according to an NDP source, the Liberals are winning the "lawn" sign war, more or less, in Burnaby South.

Significant because Liberal lawn signs were not that prominent thereto during the 2008 Dion/2011 Iggy campaigns. Pre-2008, the Liberals had considerable strength in Van City proper and adjoining inner suburbs of North Shore/Burnaby/Richmond. Anecdotally it appears that Lib/CPC and Lib/NDP switchers are moving back to the Liberals there in numbers.

Even today, in Victoria, a well known BC political reporter tweeted that he has noticed a surprising number of Liberal lawn signs in Victoria recently. Liberals held the seat about a decade ago.

And the Liberals have made an apparent HUGE media buy in the Metro Van market... both TV and radio in high-rating time slots. Never seen anything like this since 2004/2006. Their internals obviously must be telling them something.

And today, the Liberals released a "Made in BC" commercial with JT, which is not too shabby:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Ac3QIli9no

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

Kudos to your work eternallyme! I will give ya a B+/A- score on your BC predictions and ya are apparently in ON. Not bad. Not bad at all.

Now I have selected 2 foregoing BC ridings for some interesting "on the ground" intel. Apparently, according to an NDP source, the Liberals are winning the "lawn" sign war, more or less, in Burnaby South.

Significant because Liberal lawn signs were not that prominent thereto during the 2008 Dion/2011 Iggy campaigns. Pre-2008, the Liberals had considerable strength in Van City proper and adjoining inner suburbs of North Shore/Burnaby/Richmond. Anecdotally it appears that Lib/CPC and Lib/NDP switchers are moving back to the Liberals there in numbers.

Even today, in Victoria, a well known BC political reporter tweeted that he has noticed a surprising number of Liberal lawn signs in Victoria recently. Liberals held the seat about a decade ago.

And the Liberals have made an apparent HUGE media buy in the Metro Van market... both TV and radio in high-rating time slots. Never seen anything like this since 2004/2006. Their internals obviously must be telling them something.

And today, the Liberals released a "Made in BC" commercial with JT, which is not too shabby:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Ac3QIli9no

Fantastic ad.

I'd like to also chime in that the boots on the ground feel in Vancouver right now favours the Liberals. Not the NDP.

I think the NDP will be very disappointed after this election.

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by flar

It's too late now, but the Liberals could have locked this up if they had come out with a vision for Canada right off the bat.

Present themselves as a Canadian party that stands for Canadian values. They should have hammered the Conservatives for destroying our reputation as peacekeepers. Scolded the Conservatives for getting us involved in ill-conceived American wars in the Middle East. Wars that have brought home terrorism and put our formerly peace-loving country at risk.

They should be sounding the alarm bells that Stephen Harper is turning us into the United States (which is basically his vision). That they are selling off our resources to foreign investors for practically nothing. They are destroying the middle class, and letting our underclass grow, which will create desperation and crime down the road. Send the message that the Conservatives are making Canada a meaner, dog-eat-dog society. Sell the vision that only the Liberals can foster Canadian values that have created our safe, fair and peaceful country.

I can think of many ways these messages could be presented that would resonate with Canadians.

Only something really good can shake off all those one-issue voters out there, people who are basically of the mindset, "I don't care what you do, just don't raise my taxes". You have to give people a reason to vote for your party.

Typical canada.
Fear mongering your opponents as pro america and you win the election.

[SteelTown]

Liberals pull ahead of NDP, as support in Ontario grows: Ipsos poll

With just four weeks to go before Canadians choose their next prime minister, burgeoning Liberal support in Ontario has pushed party support past the NDP for the first time in the campaign, according to a new Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of Global News.

Approximately 33 per cent of Canadians prefer the Liberal Party, according to the poll – three percentage points ahead of the NDP, and six points ahead of the Conservatives.

http://bit.ly/1LJx1VM

[Gresto]

If it has to be Trudeau Jr., so be it, as long as Harper and his cronies finally get the boot.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by SteelTown

Liberals pull ahead of NDP, as support in Ontario grows: Ipsos poll

With just four weeks to go before Canadians choose their next prime minister, burgeoning Liberal support in Ontario has pushed party support past the NDP for the first time in the campaign, according to a new Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of Global News.

Approximately 33 per cent of Canadians prefer the Liberal Party, according to the poll – three percentage points ahead of the NDP, and six points ahead of the Conservatives.

http://bit.ly/1LJx1VM

This is somewhat at odds with the 308/CBC Poll Tracker.

CBC pegs current support as CPC 30.5%, NDP - 29.8% and LIB - 29.6%

Current seat projections (CBC) are CPC - 126, NDP - 110 and LIB - 101

[jmt18325]

Originally Posted by flar

—?

I think you completely misunderstood my post.
:whoosh:

I'm saying that would have been a bad idea.

[VANRIDERFAN]

Originally Posted by flar

—?

I think you completely misunderstood my post.
:whoosh:

So you advocate the Liberals to completely lie and — about their involvement in current and previous Canadian foreign policy?
Well that would be par for the course for their historical election MOs.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by flar

Sell the vision that only the Liberals can foster Canadian values that have created our safe, fair and peaceful country.

FYI, 60%+ of Canadians would agree with these values... but half of them are voting for the red centerleft party, the other half for the orange centerleft party.

Worst vote split imaginable, and the FPTP system makes it even worse as some ridings will end up CPC that would've gone to a united centerleft instead.

[geotag277]

In general I think people over estimate the "left split" and under estimate the "anyone but X party split". Not even mentioning that the blue party is not actually that right wing and appeals to several leftists as well, for a person who wants to vote "Anyone but NDP" (of which there are several) and "Anyone but Liberal" (who also have their legion of haters). There are vote splits happening each and every way. The narrative that there is a left split that is unfairly helping the CPC is overblown.

[geotag277]

I also find it a bit funny that Liberals used "if we didn't vote for Bill C51 Conservatives would campaign that we are soft on terror!" BS line for voting for that bill, and yet here it is federal election time and the NDP are completely unscathed for voting against it.

I think it's safe to say that is yet another example of Liberals pulling the old say one thing do another card that we've come to expect in generation after generation of Liberal politicians. If you think Trudeau is any better, think long and hard about that move.

[Migs]

Originally Posted by Elmira Guy

No question there have been aircraft with teething problems in the past. However, none of those was going to become the sole combat aircraft for the majority of NATO air forces. Name me another aircraft with comparable teething problems that became the single standard aircraft for NATO.

The F-16 had several serious issues during development with stalling at high angles of attack. It almost lead to the U.S. Air Force purchasing the YF-17 instead (which later turned into the F-18). Over 4,500 F-16 went on to be built for over 25 countries.

What's more, several NATO members have already scaled back the size of their intended fleets because of the escalating costs and delays. Even the US Air Force is contemplating doing so.

That happens often during military procurement of a large number of units.

Don't get me wrong Migs. I'm not opposed to the F-35 because I dislike the Harper government. I oppose it because it's shaping up to be a very expensive lemon, and with no aircraft in the works at this point to supplement/replace it, that will leave a HUGE hole in NATO's capability. If I thought it was the single best aircraft for Canada, and it weren't shaping up to be a sub-par lemon, I would be in favour of acquiring it regardless of what PM did so.

To say the F-35 is a lemon when it is just entering service is no offence, asinine. Could you imagine if 30'years ago countries refused to buy F-18's & F-16's because they went through many serious issues during development? Every military aircraft goes through this, especially ones such as this that are so technically advanced. That is why the development phase is so long. Instead of listening to people who have something to gain by the F-35 failing, listen to the pilots who actually fly the plane. Listen to the military leaders of countries like Israel, UK, Australia, Italy, Norway, Denmark, Netherlands, Australia, etc who want the F-35.

A question for you if I may. Would you be touting the F-35 as loudly as you are if it had been a non-Conservative government who proposed acquiring it? I realize you will brook no criticism of PM Harper, but it is that exact type of partisan thinking that has been the bane of the CAF. Seeing it as a political means rather than something to be managed with dedication.

When it comes to equipping our military with the best possible equipment I have no political stripe.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by geotag277

In general I think people over estimate the "left split" and under estimate the "anyone but X party split". Not even mentioning that the blue party is not actually that right wing and appeals to several leftists as well, for a person who wants to vote "Anyone but NDP" (of which there are several) and "Anyone but Liberal" (who also have their legion of haters). There are vote splits happening each and every way. The narrative that there is a left split that is unfairly helping the CPC is overblown.

Well, IMO, the LPC and Mulcair's version of the NPD are generally closer to each other for their platform/politics than they are to the CPC. If the LPC disbanded I'm certain we'd get a NDP majority this fall, and if the NDP disbanded I'm certain we'd get a LPC majority this fall.

I can't prove that, of course, but I think the numbers we've seen so far show that there's much more vote-trading going on between these two than between any of them and the CPC.

The CPC's base at ~30% (maybe high 20s% to be even more conservative) seems really rock solid, and it's not communicating much with the other parties' pools of voters.


I mostly agree with you though. The left splits are pretty severe, but we're nonetheless talking about three separate parties, and there are people out there who just won't ever vote NPD or LPC but would support the other. Saying that all votes of each "left" party would automatically go to the other is an exaggeration, but saying that most would (instead of going to the CPC) is extremely likely, even all but guaranteed.

[Migs]

Originally Posted by Gresto

If it has to be Trudeau Jr., so be it, as long as Harper and his cronies finally get the boot.

So you like higher taxes and planned deficits hey. Cool.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

This is somewhat at odds with the 308/CBC Poll Tracker.

CBC pegs current support as CPC 30.5%, NDP - 29.8% and LIB - 29.6%

Current seat projections (CBC) are CPC - 126, NDP - 110 and LIB - 101

It's at odds with the latest Nanos numbers for Ontario as well...

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by Migs

So you like higher taxes and planned deficits hey. Cool.

When they make sense, like they do here, then yes. Universally opposing all tax increases and all deficit spending is out of touch and impractical.

Let me ask, are you a 1 percenter MIGS? Last I checked registered nurses weren't making over 200k salaries.

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by lio45

If the LPC disbanded I'm certain we'd get a NDP majority this fall

Sorry. Gotta disagree with ya. The NDP brand is just too politically toxic in many/most areas of the RoC and ya would wind up with a BC provincial situation where the NDP almost never wins. (Only has ever won with split vote on centre-right/right).

In fact, if the Liberals disbanded, ya would see the Cons win most seats in BC, AB, SK, MB and ON... and even possibly the Maritimes this fall IMHO.

Even in QC, the "Mount Royals" would move from Lib to Con.

As an aside, a Tweet from a well-respected, long-time BC political reporter within the last half-hour:

My read: Libs are rising, Cons are getting base back, NDP have peaked and will slide a bit. Still tight 3-way fight.

And response from a former centre-left NDP strategist now working for Liberals in BC:

that's about how I see it as well. Whether CPC or Libs win is largely dependent on how far the NDP slide.

Couldn't concur more.

PS. I will give ya an example of how toxic the NDP brand is. My lil sis has two gal pals who have contempt for Harper and will vote Liberal. But... they are also concerned about the NDP winning in their ridings and would rather vote Con to prevent an NDP win in their respective ridings.

From their perspective, the Cons are the "lesser of two evils" vis-a-vis the NDP.

[geotag277]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

The NDP brand is just too politically toxic in many/most areas of the RoC and ya would wind up with a BC provincial situation where the NDP almost never wins. (Only has ever won with split vote on centre-right/right).

I think people generally under estimate just how toxic the NDP and Liberal brands really are. People online seem to generally be anti Harper maniacs who think that the only toxic brand is the Conservatives and everyone has an "anyone but Harper" attitude. That isn't true at all. NDP and Liberals have their own legacy of BS that many people haven't forgotten.

[ssiguy]

I think true Trudeau has surprised everyone and particularly Harper and company.

The "just not ready" ads were novel at first and before the election got going people did begin to wonder that themselves. Now the ads have gone from tedious to offensive. His well thought out policies, youthful energy, well articulated passion, willingness to discuss not only 4 years of governance but also the "vision thing", and general likeability have served him well. His optimistic spirit and endearing personality are a stark contrast particularly of Harper doer persona that wreaks of the bully syndrome.

He has not only invigorated the election but equally important his party. After the catastrophy of Ignatief there was real talk of an NDP-Liberal coalition with the Liberals being the junior partner. Trudeau has brought energy{and money} back into the party and party members. He has lifted the Liberals from their 150 years low point to a potential government. In every possible metric he has been a stellar success for the Liberals.

Whether you love, hate, or are completely indifferent to Trudeau I think it's fair to say that he has done far better than the Conservatives, NDP, and general public ever thought he could.

[travis3000]

I wouldn't put much weight on that Ipsos poll. Stick with Nanos, they have the most fresh data and are very reputable with federal elections.