Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting - Page 210

st7860 · #**4181** Posted **Sep 17, 2015, 2:48 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stryker

The kind of i<obscenity> that is trying to hide assets.

Canadian's pay no taxes when selling their primary residence. Persons without residency have taxes withheld when selling a home. There is no way to hide that. The taxes are withheld from the source(25 to 50%) and all sorts of extra paperwork is required.

st7860 · #**4182** Posted **Sep 17, 2015, 2:55 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by vanman

No, Vancouver can't just sprawl into it's hinterland. BC has had the Agricultural Land Reserve in place, the first of it's kind in North America, since the early 70s. 47,000 sqkm of the province is off limits to anything other than agricultural use. This is what it looks like in Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley:

https://vancouverflippersintrouble.files.wordpress.com/2015/05/alr_map.jpg
Almost everything outside this green zone has already been developed.

That's like taking the words out of my mouth. Like Toronto, Vancouver has a gigantic ring around it, preventing development.

here is what the people say where that map came from
"As I pointed out last month, the biggest obstacle to residential development isn’t the mountains, ocean or US border — it’s the Agricultural Land Reserve (ALR). To illustrate the point, let’s take a detailed look at the City of Richmond.

Here is an aerial shot of the city, where you can see that about 40% of the total available land has been dedicated to agricultural uses."

vanman · #**4183** Posted **Sep 17, 2015, 2:57 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stryker

So your telling me all it takes for the bubble to really pop is for more than 50 percent of the voting population in the province of BC being pissed off at an absolutely absurd law system designed to benefit the rich.

Seriously this — could only happen in BC.

So protecting arable land from development and ensuring food security doesn't make sense to you?

st7860 · #**4184** Posted **Sep 17, 2015, 3:03 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by vanman

So protecting arable land from development and ensuring food security doesn't make sense to you?

+1. Its the same kind of thinking which is why more things like the HST aren't put to vote in BC. Citizens are typically shortsighted and would chose to have a cheap house over their food security.

vanman · #**4185** Posted **Sep 17, 2015, 3:06 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by mistercorporate

I've been to some of those zones to the North of that map and even those Gulf Islands. They most certainly can handle more people. We're going to have to agree to disagree on this one. I've done my fair share of real estate development and most of that green forested area North of Vancouver (on that map) can easily and profitably be developed with ease. The issue is not lack of space, it's speculation, interest rates and money laundering.

Yes forested mountains and protected watersheds as well as Provincial parks can all be developed with the greatest of ease. You clearly know the region well.

st7860 · #**4186** Posted **Sep 17, 2015, 3:06 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by vanman

Yes forested mountains and protected watersheds as well as Provincial parks can all be developed with the greatest of ease.

and burns bog? eeew.

mistercorporate · #**4187** Posted **Sep 17, 2015, 3:15 AM**

Listen man, it's only mountains beyond a certain height, that's 100's of thousands of km's of potential new development potential beyond the city. Low lying areas even with a grade can easily be developed and profitably too. If Vancouver is truly built-out for its population (which it isn't) then expand the envelope of development. If it isn't built-out then clearly the issue is not lack of space...

someone123 · #**4188** Posted **Sep 17, 2015, 3:21 AM**

The Vancouver metro area population grew by 1.3% or so last year, according to Statistics Canada's estimates. The price of a detached house jumped 20% during this period to $1.47 million.

The land supply argument doesn't go very far toward explaining what is happening right now. The supply of land per capita is about the same this year as it was last year, but housing costs are much higher. There have to be other factors at play.

whatnext · #**4189** Posted **Sep 17, 2015, 4:10 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by someone123

The Vancouver metro area population grew by 1.3% or so last year, according to Statistics Canada's estimates. The price of a detached house jumped 20% during this period to $1.47 million.

The land supply argument doesn't go very far toward explaining what is happening right now. The supply of land per capita is about the same this year as it was last year, but housing costs are much higher. There have to be other factors at play.

You want to know what's at play: foreign real estate parasites

Julia Lau rapidly climbed to the top in Vancouver real estate, tapping her deep pool of Mainland China buyers.

Coming from Hong Kong, Lau started selling Vancouver homes in 2005. In 2008 she earned just under $400,000 in commissions. In 2009 she claimed $689,064 in annual income, putting her in the top one per cent of Metro Vancouver realtors. In the next few years, as investment from China surged, Lau’s sales reportedly accelerated to about 100 luxury homes per year.

In her Granville Street home she kept signifcant amounts of cash in a closet safe-vault standing between racks of designer jackets. She exuded prominence and wealth.

But quietly in 2015, The Province has learned, Lau voluntarily forfeited her realtor’s licence — permanently — instead of going through a disciplinary hearing with the Real Estate Council of British Columbia. The council alleges that while working for Sutton Group-West Coast Realty, Lau paid or offered to pay an unlicensed assistant to obtain sales listings. And while under investigation by the council, Lau allegedly “made or allowed to be made” false or misleading statements...
http://www.theprovince.com/business/insi...nland+chinese+buyers/11365879/story.html

geotag277 · #**4190** Posted **Sep 17, 2015, 4:21 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by someone123

The Vancouver metro area population grew by 1.3% or so last year, according to Statistics Canada's estimates. The price of a detached house jumped 20% during this period to $1.47 million.

The land supply argument doesn't go very far toward explaining what is happening right now. The supply of land per capita is about the same this year as it was last year, but housing costs are much higher. There have to be other factors at play.

One wouldn't expect scarce resources to grow nicely and linearly. Once they get to a certain point, they increase at an accelerated rate.

It's similar to the price of oil. Once demand outstrips supply, and all the easy sources of oil are gone, it gets exponentially more expensive to extract oil, and you see sudden dramatic price swings upwards - even though demand still increases in a nice linear fashion.

geotag277 · #**4191** Posted **Sep 17, 2015, 4:24 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by whatnext

You want to know what's at play: foreign real estate parasites

Julia Lau rapidly climbed to the top in Vancouver real estate, tapping her deep pool of Mainland China buyers.

Coming from Hong Kong, Lau started selling Vancouver homes in 2005. In 2008 she earned just under $400,000 in commissions. In 2009 she claimed $689,064 in annual income, putting her in the top one per cent of Metro Vancouver realtors. In the next few years, as investment from China surged, Lau’s sales reportedly accelerated to about 100 luxury homes per year.

In her Granville Street home she kept signifcant amounts of cash in a closet safe-vault standing between racks of designer jackets. She exuded prominence and wealth.

But quietly in 2015, The Province has learned, Lau voluntarily forfeited her realtor’s licence — permanently — instead of going through a disciplinary hearing with the Real Estate Council of British Columbia. The council alleges that while working for Sutton Group-West Coast Realty, Lau paid or offered to pay an unlicensed assistant to obtain sales listings. And while under investigation by the council, Lau allegedly “made or allowed to be made” false or misleading statements...
http://www.theprovince.com/business/insi...nland+chinese+buyers/11365879/story.html

I have no doubt there is a fraction of involvement of Chinese money laundering involved in Vancouver real estate. But to say it is the dominant factor is absurd. Lau was caught quite easily. If it was wide spread, there would be many more cases of it.

Real estate agents generally operate in a cut throat world that frequently bends the rules. The problem arises when people like you extrapolate these isolated cases into wide spread trends without any data to back it up.

FYI Here is a domestic money laundering scheme exposed, which by the same token could be extrapolated to generalize that Canadian money laundering is propping up the real estate market in the Bahamas.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/op...nd-laundered-funds-rcmp-allege-1.2994229

It's called selection bias.

whatnext · #**4192** Posted **Sep 17, 2015, 4:28 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by geotag277

I have no doubt there is a fraction of involvement of Chinese money laundering involved in Vancouver real estate. But to say it is the dominant factor is absurd. Lau was caught quite easily. If it was wide spread, there would be many more cases of it.

Real estate agents generally operate in a cut throat world that frequently bends the rules. The problem arises when people like you extrapolate these isolated cases into wide spread trends without any data to back it up.

FYI Here is a domestic money laundering scheme exposed, which by the same token could be extrapolated to generalize that Canadian money laundering is propping up the real estate market in the Bahamas.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/op...nd-laundered-funds-rcmp-allege-1.2994229

It's called selection bias.

I'm not sure why some posters feel such a need to deny the obvious (other than the outed real estate shills). If you don't live in Vancouver you probably don't understand the scope of the problem.

Canada's dirty money detection system ‘broken all the way through’

...Fintrac documents and a 2015 Canadian department of finance report say both the real estate and legal sectors are at risk for money laundering, specifically because “real estate transactions usually involve lawyers and their trust accounts,” and these legal trusts “can knowingly or unknowingly provide legitimacy and/or obscure the source of illegally sourced funds.”

Also, documents show the real estate and legal sectors are vulnerable to illicit foreign investment and “politically exposed persons” — which means rich foreigners with government connections.

Christine Duhaime, a Vancouver anti-money-laundering lawyer, said Canada appears to be the only developed nation that gives lawyers a pass on federal money-laundering reporting. Canadian lawyers can be wired any amount of offshore funds which can be placed in trust and used to buy Canadian assets without informing Fintrac, and with no questions asked by banks, Duhaime said.... (bold mine)
http://www.theprovince.com/business/dirty+money+detection+system+broken+through/11313474/story.html

geotag277 · #**4193** Posted **Sep 17, 2015, 6:31 AM**

To be clear, I totally 100% support investigating money laundering and improving our ability to stop it, both domestically and from foreign sources.

My contention is that if you think putting a stop to 100% of all money laundering in Canada will somehow cause single family detached housing in Vancouver to suddenly become affordable, you are 100% certifiably delusional.

Should it be a political issue in Canada? Probably. Will it move the needle at all on housing affordability? Absurd to suggest so.

I suspect the impact will be similar to discontinuing the lottery service.

Stryker · #**4194** Posted **Sep 17, 2015, 10:33 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by st7860

Canadian's pay no taxes when selling their primary residence. Persons without residency have taxes withheld when selling a home. There is no way to hide that. The taxes are withheld from the source(25 to 50%) and all sorts of extra paperwork is required.

Are you trolling I really can't tell if someone could really miss a point so Fing hard.

Stryker · #**4195** Posted **Sep 17, 2015, 10:41 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by vanman

So protecting arable land from development and ensuring food security doesn't make sense to you?

Food security?

Are you really serious?

No like really?

st7860 · #**4196** Posted **Sep 17, 2015, 1:10 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by whatnext

I'm not sure why some posters feel such a need to deny the obvious (other than the outed real estate shills). If you don't live in Vancouver you probably don't understand the scope of the problem.

Because there isn't a problem. So a guy gets a — problem, goes to Vegas, gambles even more, then somehow makes it back to Vancouver, borrows from a loan shark, and is found having passed away in the trunk of a car. And?

st7860 · #**4197** Posted **Sep 17, 2015, 1:17 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stryker

Food security?

Are you really serious?

No like really?

Yes, it's a very useful thing. A few weeks ago in Vancouver there was a large windstorm, half the region lost power, and Supermarkets were bare in a few hours.

http://www.metrovancouver.org/services/regional-planning/agriculture/about/Pages/default.aspx
"Agricultural land is the foundation for regional food security and agricultural economic development, and provides indispensable ecological services. In 2011, Metro Vancouver had 60,893 ha in the Agricultural Land Reserve (ALR), which makes up 22% of the region’s land base (the ALR is a provincial designation that protects lands for farming)."

mistercorporate · #**4198** Posted **Sep 17, 2015, 2:10 PM**

Part of the problem here is that people in this thread are not revealing their cards as far as conflict of interest is concerned. A couple of us have stated already our real estate interests, if anyone else is involved in real estate development, sales or investments they really should state so openly (without revealing their identity). It would also be nice if those with no real estate experience would state that openly too. I have a suspicion that not all of these guys on the "no problem" side are realtors, some of them may well be teenagers talking out of their a$$...

Stryker · #**4199** Posted **Sep 17, 2015, 2:13 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by st7860

Yes, it's a very useful thing. A few weeks ago in Vancouver there was a large windstorm, half the region lost power, and Supermarkets were bare in a few hours.

http://www.metrovancouver.org/services/regional-planning/agriculture/about/Pages/default.aspx
"Agricultural land is the foundation for regional food security and agricultural economic development, and provides indispensable ecological services. In 2011, Metro Vancouver had 60,893 ha in the Agricultural Land Reserve (ALR), which makes up 22% of the region’s land base (the ALR is a provincial designation that protects lands for farming)."

Lol and you don't think people there could import food like everywhere else.

Oh yeah I forgot Vancouver can't afford a 5 percent increase in food.

Stryker · #**4200** Posted **Sep 17, 2015, 2:17 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by mistercorporate

Part of the problem here is that people in this thread are not revealing their cards as far as conflict of interest is concerned. A couple of us have stated already our real estate interests, if anyone else is involved in real estate development, sales or investments they really should state so openly (without revealing their identity). It would also be nice if those with no real estate experience would state that openly too. I have a suspicion that not all of these guys on the "no problem" side are realtors, some of them may well be teenagers talking out of their a$$...

It's the internet buddy, what your asking just doesn't make sense unless you just want people to start lying, trust me from experience this just allows the most trollish of the bunch to keep on keeping on.

Regardless the people with little experience are the ones that have a massive effect on the validity of a bubble.

Simple math tells you home owners don't support housing markets.