Calgary International Airport II

Originally Posted by YYCMatt

Sorry I meant that WS diverted 10 flights, but I know AC had diversions as well.

Ahh yes, brain fart... I meant to say WS.

[Johnny Aussie]

From twitter just now:

@airlineroute: WestJet's Boeing 767-300ER is entering service on Calgary - Toronto route from 17AUG15, instead of planned 02AUG15

So many potential things could delay this so it's not surprising.

17AUG15 – 07SEP15
WS683 YYZ 0800 – 1012 YYC 76W
WS668 YYC 1300 – 1836 YYZ 76W

08SEP15 – 24OCT15
WS655 YYZ 0900 – 1112 YYC 76W
WS668 YYC 1300 – 1836 YYZ 76W

http://airlineroute.net/2015/07/14/ws-yycyyz-aug15update2/

BA 787 further delayed. Shocking.

British Airways in this week’s schedule update is delaying planned Boeing 787-8 service resumption on London Heathrow – Calgary route, which is now scheduled to begin from 05DEC15. As a result, the Boeing 767 will continue operation between 25OCT15 and 04DEC15 on daily basis.

BA103 LHR1535 – 1735YYC 788 D
BA102 YYC2015 – 1200+1LHR 788 D

[Riise]

Originally Posted by Acey

BA 787 further delayed. Shocking.

Have there been further updates regarding the addition of YEG into BA's YYC-LHR route? I'll be looking to book my Thanksgiving Trip soon and would love to fly BA again but don't want to end up going from a non-stop to a stopover in Edmonton.

No further update, and "update" kind of indicates there was any kind of official consideration which there hasn't been (BA obviously constantly evaluates the performance of all routes). Not saying an announcement won't come out of nowhere from BA but I certainly wouldn't worry about your flight being rerouted through YEG.

[Cage]

Originally Posted by Riise

Have there been further updates regarding the addition of YEG into BA's YYC-LHR route? I'll be looking to book my Thanksgiving Trip soon and would love to fly BA again but don't want to end up going from a non-stop to a stopover in Edmonton.

With the addition of LGW into WS list of cities, and the strong potential for 3x week YEG-LGW; I believe the BA into YEG idea is toast. No way BA would want to get into a three way fight with AC and WS over a small market.

Actually my prediction is that BA will exit YYC-LHR when/if WS launches YYC-LGW. YVR-LHR will stay on but with smaller aircraft (which has all ready been completed for Summer 2016).

[YYCMatt]

Do the the LGW slots need to be used year round? I assumed that it would be summer only but maybe with 4 airplanes they will keep it going in the winter too.

[Coldrsx]

Originally Posted by Cage

With the addition of LGW into WS list of cities, and the strong potential for 3x week YEG-LGW; I believe the BA into YEG idea is toast. No way BA would want to get into a three way fight with AC and WS over a small market.

Actually my prediction is that BA will exit YYC-LHR when/if WS launches YYC-LGW. YVR-LHR will stay on but with smaller aircraft (which has all ready been completed for Summer 2016).

BA into YEG has to be lost with the addition of KLM to Europe and potential of LGW. No way we can support AC, Iceland, KLM... AT or whoever to LGW and BA.

[Riise]

Thanks for the responses everyone!

[Denscity]

I keep reading LaGuardia everytime I see LGW. Lgwardia.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by Riise

Have there been further updates regarding the addition of YEG into BA's YYC-LHR route? I'll be looking to book my Thanksgiving Trip soon and would love to fly BA again but don't want to end up going from a non-stop to a stopover in Edmonton.

Originally Posted by Acey

No further update, and "update" kind of indicates there was any kind of official consideration which there hasn't been (BA obviously constantly evaluates the performance of all routes). Not saying an announcement won't come out of nowhere from BA but I certainly wouldn't worry about your flight being rerouted through YEG.

Certainly not by next October (thanksgiving)
If BA were to announce YEG, it would be for a summer start, not an October one. Also, if BA were to launch YEG, it won't be LHR-YEG-YYC. It will be a non stop terminator to both cities, because the tag on would kill any small hint of life that is left in the YYC-LHR flight. It is clearly struggling as it is, with BA still utilizing its lowest long haul config aircraft on the route, the B763, and delaying the B788 resumption.

Originally Posted by Cage

Actually my prediction is that BA will exit YYC-LHR when/if WS launches YYC-LGW.

Could very well be. But my gut says they'll stick around If the economy rebounds in the short term. If oil stays the way it is, they might exit, yes.

Originally Posted by Coldrsx

BA into YEG has to be lost with the addition of KLM to Europe and potential of LGW. No way we can support AC, Iceland, KLM... AT or whoever to LGW and BA.

Forget BA. It still hasn't been determined that you can support AC, KL and FI. It should become clear by the end of next summer. KL is still running with all those incentives in its pockets, maybe even FI as well. Once the incentives run out, then we will know what the YEG market can truly support.

Once again, loads don't equate to yields, so ppl on here saying their flight out of YEG was full doesn't necessarily mean that particular airline is making money.

One thing though that plays in YEG's favor of keeping these three carriers is the fact that they each run less than daily frequencies, even during the summer season. FI, KL and AC total only 13 weekly across the pond. That's not a lot of capacity if you think about it.

[Cage]

Okay here is my wild and crazy WestJet Widebody Summer 2016 schedule prediction:
Note I calculate that WS 763 will have approximately 24-28 round trip frequencies. (Route ~ Frequency/week)
- YEG-LGW 3x
- YYC-GLA/EDI 2x
- YYC-DUB 2x
- YYC-YYZ 7x
- YYC-TXL/SXF 2x
- YYZ-GLA/EDI 2x
- YYZ-DUB 2x
- YYZ-TXL/SXF 2x
- YYZ-LGW 2x
- YHZ-LGW 2x

I chose the LGW schedule based on WS stated desire to be primarily secondary market based, so I chose YEG, and YHZ based on this criteria. This is why I chose not to have YYC-LGW, YEG will get the traffic feed for LGW services. Plus this will have WS avoid a blood bath between AC, WS, and BA. Also I suspect that YEG-LGW announcement by WS will push AC out of the market with permanent transfer of 898/899 to 852/853.

WS would be wise to go into markets they all ready have experience with, this is why I chose DUB and GLA/EDI, but with this trial market the frequency will be low at 2-3x per week. Also decided that WS will enter the widebody market in YYZ and have planned accordingly.

Final list of European destinations is quite the shocker at TXL/SXF (Berlin for the non-avgeeks). I figure that WS will enter a major tourist market like DUB and GLA/EDI, also they will want a piece of the Germany market to further poke the bear (AC). Berlin best fits the bill as no Canadian airline flies to Berlin on consistent basis. FRA is full and MUC is dominated by LH. DUS and HAM are good choices but very close to AMS.

This of course assumes that WS will not apply for entrance into Skyteam. If they are to prepare for Skyteam entrance, or even a major codeshare with AF/KL group; then secondary markets will will be pushed aside in favour of linking up with new partners at CDG and AMS.

The above is pure conjecture.

YYC-TXL would be so badass. I wonder if they'd fly YYZ-EDI and allow the existing YYZ-YHZ-GLA to continue.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by Coldrsx

BA into YEG has to be lost with the addition of KLM to Europe and potential of LGW. No way we can support AC, Iceland, KLM... AT or whoever to LGW and BA.

Look at YEG's int'l growth for June just reported. There were approx 2100 more pax in June 2015 vs 2014. Factoring in the new KL flights, the increase in FI flights and Sunwing's additional sun flying, offset by AC's reduced flights to LHR, growth is significantly < the increase in supply. This suggests the total increase in capacity (although not that big) has been about 60% absorbed. Without breaking down where that growth went hard to tell. But I agree with you. Perhaps a better balance is being obtained there.

I still think BA is going to stick around at YYC.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by Acey

YYC-TXL would be so badass.

That's one way to put it. The problem is TXL is a very distance 4th in terms of market size YYC-Germany. FRA obviously light years ahead, followed by a distant second MUC, but HAM is larger than TXL and DUS just slightly smaller than TXL. Back in the Canada 3000 days all the YYC-Germany flights originated in YVR to make them even remotely viable. Years ago yes, and YYC has grown substantially since then but TXL is still a tiny market for YYC.

Yeah I brainstormed my own list and actually had YYC-CDG on it and not TXL, maybe WS would consider it as preemptive against AC who announced it as a potential route.

[hoboman27]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Look at YEG's int'l growth for June just reported. There were approx 2100 more pax in June 2015 vs 2014. Factoring in the new KL flights, the increase in FI flights and Sunwing's additional sun flying, offset by AC's reduced flights to LHR, growth is significantly < the increase in supply. This suggests the total increase in capacity (although not that big) has been about 60% absorbed. Without breaking down where that growth went hard to tell. But I agree with you. Perhaps a better balance is being obtained there.

I still think BA is going to stick around at YYC.

I thought it was the other way around, Growth > increased supply, probably because the World Cup helped out.

[Cage]

Originally Posted by Acey

Yeah I brainstormed my own list and actually had YYC-CDG on it and not TXL, maybe WS would consider it as preemptive against AC who announced it as a potential route.

YYC-CDG is on my list of flights that are under the assumption WS joins Skyteam or does a major joint venture operation with AF/KL.

Ws always has a problem attracting and retaining enough FAs to handle YUL and YQB; my reasoning for not including CDG was that it could hinder WS efforts on french language skills. Their current plan is to have enough french speaking FAs so that all Encore and mainline flights to/from YQB and YUL have atleast one FA(note YQM is off the list although New Brunswick has a major french speaking population). If WS were to launch CDG, they risk a attracting attention of french language regulators and having a minor PR disaster.

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

That's one way to put it. The problem is TXL is a very distance 4th in terms of market size YYC-Germany. FRA obviously light years ahead, followed by a distant second MUC, but HAM is larger than TXL and DUS just slightly smaller than TXL. Back in the Canada 3000 days all the YYC-Germany flights originated in YVR to make them even remotely viable. Years ago yes, and YYC has grown substantially since then but TXL is still a tiny market for YYC.

I though long and hard about DUS simply because its a 1 hour ICE train ride to both AMS and FRA and tickets start at 19-30 Euros. However WS to DUS might kick off a supreme fare war with both AC and KL.

The other problem for tracking traffic into/from Berlin, the train Station is the primary mode of people coming into the city. I have been to Berlin three times, but only 1 trip involved flights, and even on this trip the flights were one way and not part of my TransAt ticket.

IMHO the attraction to Berlin is precisely for the opposite to the reasons stated above. Its relatively restricted from attracting unwanted price competition. No other airline currently operates the flights. There is a tonne of things to do in the well known city, its an easy sell from the WestJet vacations angle. The city is a good launch point for number of Eastern Europe excursions. There is a huge backpacker attraction to Berlin.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by hoboman27

I thought it was the other way around, Growth > increased supply, probably because the World Cup helped out.

Growth was about 2,100 vs. increased supply of about 3,500.
Transborder down about 9,300 vs. decreased supply of about 5,000 seats.
Overall traffic is down about 28,000 pax in June.
Overall conclusion, fewer people traveling despite capacity adjustments up or down.
I really don't think the World Cup was as big a draw to Edmonton as expected, despite them having more games than other cities. Other than the opening match, some games attracted less than 20,000 spectators.