DENVER | Main Development Thread #6

[Stonemans_rowJ]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

I might go ahead and suggest that we put policies in place to accommodate 80,000 new housing units.

We're missing the "middle." http://missingmiddlehousing.com/

Unfortunately large swaths of the city, including most of the old streetcar suburbs are zoned for single family. There's a lot of great older Pre War housing in Denver, but there's also a lot of mid century 🞵🞵🞵🞵 that could be redeveloped.

[Cirrus]

80,000 units by 2040 works out to 3,200 per year.

The state demography office says there are 290,496 housing units in Denver as of January 2015 (including 5,452 vacant ones). US Census said there were 281,296 units in the latter part of 2010. That's 9,200 additional units in about 4 years, or 2,300 per year.

So to meet bunt's pace we need the build about 1,000 units more per year than we're doing now. That's a lot, but it's achievable. Especially if our defacto moratorium on condos is resolved.

There's absolutely plenty of room to do it. Land is not even remotely a problem. Even assuming single-family neighborhoods will always stay single-family, industrial uses in the valley and Park Hill will move further out, so that land will be redeveloped to a higher and better use (just like at Denargo Market, and in LoDo before that). And every one-story retail building on Colfax, Broadway, Colorado, and Federal is primed to become a mixed-use mid-rise, at least.

That's how it's happened in other cities. Denver has some unique problems regarding the unbreakable political importance of mountain views, and of this condo legal issue, but the prospect of fitting 80,000 units in Denver is not physically all that daunting. It can be done and has been done in other cities.

But what's the zoning code say? What kind of residential density is allowed in the industrial areas and along the retail corridors?

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

Wasn't the Office predicting Denver County to grow at a rate of less than 1% YoY through 2020 back 2010?

Umm, no. Not at all.

Originally Posted by TakeFive

The pace of development has continued to accelerate over the last five years. Why didn't the pace start out stronger and accelerate more quickly? Simply b/c the fancy pants experts didn't have the foresight of brilliance you have when looking backwards.

Has it really accelerated, or has it just moved? In any case, this is tied to availability of capital (where we saw an unusual sort of blip), and infrastructure/entitlements/land availability. It took a decade to get Union Station built to where it could develop the way it is now. But there has never really been a period when nothing was happening down there since the first movement with the sale from Trillium a decade and a half ago. It's been consistent and non-stop since. So in other words, they did have the foresight, it just takes time. Laypeople only see the last 1/3 of the development process - when stuff goes vertical.

Originally Posted by Stonemans_rowJ

We're missing the "middle." http://missingmiddlehousing.com/

Unfortunately large swaths of the city, including most of the old streetcar suburbs are zoned for single family. There's a lot of great older Pre War housing in Denver, but there's also a lot of mid century 🞵🞵🞵🞵 that could be redeveloped.

Agree completely.

Originally Posted by Cirrus

80,000 units by 2040 works out to 3,200 per year.

The state demography office says there are 290,496 housing units in Denver as of January 2015 (including 5,452 vacant ones). US Census said there were 281,296 units in the latter part of 2010. That's 9,200 additional units in about 4 years, or 2,300 per year.

So to meet bunt's pace we need the build about 1,000 units more per year than we're doing now. That's a lot, but it's achievable. Especially if our defacto moratorium on condos is resolved.

That's how it's happened in other cities. Denver has some unique problems regarding the unbreakable political importance of mountain views, and of this condo legal issue, but the prospect of fitting 80,000 units in Denver is not physically all that daunting. It can be done and has been done in other cities.

But what's the zoning code say?

Also completely agree. The zoning code will allow for it - the zoning code is quite good. What we need are, as you point out, legal fixes that are nixing one whole market segment. And then a nudge so that we can get the politics in place to do another 1,000. Right now, the politics are such that it might push us backward by 1,000 (folks suing over relatively small 3- and 5-story projects, for example).

Basically, I think we need a YIMBY movement. For every 5 NIMBYs at a Council meeting, we need one informed YIMBY to provide political cover for Council, most of whom really do want to do the right thing. But yes, adding 1,000 per year is achievable.

EDIT: To answer the question Cirrus added... The zoning in most of these retail corridors is "Main Street" 3- or 5- story zoning. With 8- in occasional places. Most of the industrial zones are still industrial, but as they rezone we've seen mostly mixed use zoning ranging from 5- up to 12- stories permissible, lots of 8-. The giant strip mall at Broadway/Alameda is mixed use 16-. Golden triangle is all mixed use 175-feet. You've got 3-story up through most of upper Larimer/RiNo, but you get 8-story around the train station at 38th/Blake, and a lot of 8- and 12- possible up on Brighton. The zoning code is brand new, after all, and thankfully squeaked in just before a lot of this anti-growth stuff picked back up. It's the rezonings that draw the fire mostly, although West Highland was a truly egregious example of an attack on a use by right.

Of course, you're not going to build many rental projects at those heights - for those, the easy model is what we've been seeing a lot of - 5-story wood frame donuts around a parking structure. It's easy and very efficient for a rental project.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

Umm, no. Not at all.

You might want to check that. I couldn't find much but this (page 9) seems to indicate that in October of 2010, the Demographer's Office didn't forecast population growth in Denver County going above 1% YoY from 2010 to 2040. Given that the modeling indicates a general downward trend in population rates over this time they either a) had a massive spike in Denver followed by growth way below the mean, or b) growth at or below 1%. This is all a lot inference, but I do think you might want to look at the old forecasts again.

A statistician is entitled, nay required, to change their forecasts as the model, and inputs, changes, but this indicates that they might have been just a bit off on where the migration into Colorado would actually go.

[bcp]

and in those MS zone districts..there is some hope for good scale and NO parking - the original code called for no parking if lots are "under 50 feet wide"....in one of our review sessions, pointed out that it should be "50 feet or less" so that double lots were captured. (patting self on back!). This was specifically for the Colfax version, but I hope it survived into all of MS.

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

You might want to check that. I couldn't find much but this (page 9) seems to indicate that in October of 2010, the Demographer's Office didn't forecast population growth in Denver County going above 1% YoY from 2010 to 2040. Given that the modeling indicates a general downward trend in population rates over this time they either a) had a massive spike in Denver followed by growth way below the mean, or b) growth at or below 1%. This is all a lot inference, but I do think you might want to look at the old forecasts again.

A statistician is entitled, nay required, to change their forecasts as the model, and inputs, changes, but this indicates that they might have been just a bit off on where the migration into Colorado would actually go.

All right, I take that back, it looks like it is around 1% or less per year after around 2020 (it is in the 2% range now though). Of course, that could also be when we run out of greenfield development, so it could be accurate. But fine, make it 160,000 units then! Of course, price will start playing a role.

[Brainpathology]

Originally Posted by balugajames

I am pretty sure the following information will help with your concerns about future growth. Not even factoring in Greece/China's problems:

I am happy we got another 40+ highrise. Its all about to burst as I predicted months ago.

Enjoy what we got guys! Have fun with your families and try to finish that bucket list.

Pacific ocean is officially radiated/dead and its only time before its all over and our society finally notices. We will see the impacts in the coming months.

All fisheries from Monterrey -> Alaska are closed.
http://www.thebristolbaytimes.com/article/1527naknek_fishermen_cope_with_slow_opener

Ocean becoming desert
http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-ocean-i...l-life-die-offs-california-coast/5451836

Sardines/Herring Collapse (Expected huge turnout, but only 2% thus far has been found with leasions, issues.)

http://www.adn.com/article/20150702/feds-return-management-kuskokwim-state-amid-low-salmon-numbers

Largest Toxic Algea bloom in history (Closes crabbing, fishing up/down west coast)
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/toxic-algae-bloom-in-pacific-ocean-could-be-largest-ever/

http://www.king5.com/story/tech/science/...gae-bloom-domoic-acid-sea-lion/28841659/

(Official talking about expected herring numbers and real findings)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iGOj8BVwGyI&feature=youtu.be&t=2272

Jelly fish displaying fish populations by upwards of 90%
http://cpa.ds.npr.org/kuow/audio/2015/05/NEWS_20150512_jelly.mp3

http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news...y-to-hordes-of-jellyfish-in-puget-sound/

http://sfist.com/2015/07/06/multiple_marine_mammals_beached_mon.php

http://lostcoastoutpost.com/2015/jun/27/whales/

10 Dead Fin Whales found near Kodiak (Rare to see one every few years)
http://www.alaskapublic.org/2015/06/19/dead-whales-near-kodiak-island-pose-mystery/

http://digest.sialia.com/?rm=message;id=1058825

Millions animals washing ashore (Akin to fallout from Nuclear testing 40 years ago)
http://www.coastlinepilot.com/news/tn-cpt-me-0619-red-crabs-20150618,0,2656953.story

Please help spread the word. Fukashima fallout is here and if you follow the media... NO ONE IS TALKING ABOUT IT. Unlike other events characterized similarly (think Chernobyl) this is an ongoing event. Three Nuclear reactors are still melting out of control. You will read that this is caused by this years strong El Nino or Global warming, which do have some affects, coupled with on going pollution, but don't be fooled!

Great aggregator:
www.enenews.com

Good luck all! What does this have to do with Development you may ask? Don't take it for granted!

And if all that wasn't enough my partner sprained his wrist yesterday!

What does that have to do with development you might ask........

That sentence along with all the sentences about development on this thread have been written in ENGLISH!!!

If you don't see the connection there then you're just eating up all the lies the MSM is feeding you.

[Denver]

"Denargo Point" Not sure if this is just conceptual or an actual project. Anyone have some info? This looks to be pretty conceptual...All picture from http://www.sprocketdb.com

[Paulopolis]

^This looks like the next iteration of what Sprocket was calling High Iron Pointe, so maybe it's a little less conceptual (and a little more "real"?) than that project. It's big and dense!

On second thought it looks like just the northern half of the original High Iron Pointe conceptual renderings.

[LAM]

Originally Posted by Denver

"Denargo Point" Not sure if this is just conceptual or an actual project. Anyone have some info? This looks to be pretty conceptual...All picture from http://www.sprocketdb.com

Since it is attractive, dynamic, and interesting, it must be conceptual and will most likely be turned into a five story stick built basic box like every other apartment building in Denver.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by mhays

Demographers are statisticians.

'nuff said. Life is what happens while you're making other plans. It's dynamic; it's unpredictable; it's maddening; it's marvelous.

Originally Posted by mhays

Downtown Denver might overbuild housing, a bit. But it gets better every year from an urbanity and services perspective. Once the ball is rolling with downtown housing it tends to keep rolling.

It's taken decades but finally Urban Life is alive and well in downtown. Whether you want to call it hitting Critical Mass or my preference that it's become a Virtual Circle where the desire to live near or in downtown creates demand for more office space which creates demand for more residential, retail, entertainment, etc. and so on.

Originally Posted by mhays

Regarding affordability, here's a big ace in the hole: Even though construction is expensive and new units are expensive, when you add supply, older units get cheaper in relative terms.

THIS - what's unique with downtown Denver is that residential construction only became noticeable about 10 years ago.

But it wasn't until after the Great Recession - 2010 - that living downtown became a thing among the Millennial's, etc. The move into Denver by developers was timely but with the time needed for planning, permitting, funding and construction the ramp-up in apartment construction took time.

The new apartment projects quickly filled up from strong demand which has led to an accelerated pace of building. Still it all takes time. But with as many apartment units now under construction as has been finished in the previous four years there's a good chance that supply will catch up and possibly exceed demand at some point.

To your point, my point would be that the vast majority of apartments downtown are still very new or yet to be finished. There's not the depth of "old stock" as in many cities.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by Brainpathology

And if all that wasn't enough my partner sprained his wrist yesterday!

...and how is he doing now?

Originally Posted by Brainpathology

If you don't see the connection there then you're just eating up all the lies the MSM is feeding you.

You do realize that MSM is second only to Obama for being at fault?

Originally Posted by balugajames

Enjoy what we got guys! Have fun with your families and try to finish that bucket list.

I have so little knowledge of that stuff that I did enjoy reading through most of it.

The Good News is that the growing significant El Nino could really help alleviate California's drought.

Forget about my bucket list; it kicked the bucket.

[mhays]

A large percentage yes, but there are still many thousands of units from more than 10 years ago. Those should be generally cheaper than newer units. And the number of newer units will affect the quanity and cheapness of the cheap units.

It's also useful to note that "Downtown" represents a tiny percentage of the local population. Based on a reasonable radius you might be talking less than 1% of the metro. Getting to 2% (let alone 5% like Vancouver) would take multiple booms of this size. But all it takes is a shift in thinking among a small part of the 100%, a shift that's already happened to a good extent.

The idea can sell itself once people's minds are open. This would be mostly among households without kids (the majority) and generally people who work Downtown or visit frequently. No commute? No yard work? Restaurants, a hotel, and parks instead of a big dining room, guest room, and yard? Hours of additional leisure time per day? Tough life!

[TakeFive]

Easy Like Sunday Morning

The world's a funny place. It's amazing how much whacky environmentalists ultimately impact everyday life. For example consider the new $1.3 billion fertilizer plant in Enid Oklahoma. Being built by Koch Industries it's organic, it will save money by using recycled water and they just received an award for rail safety. Silly conservatives.

Can this tech bubble last?
Anywhere you go among the Business Journal family there's growing political and economic support for startups, incubators, innovation. The amounts of capital from states/cities, Venture Capitalists, Angel Investors etc. continues to grow. Will the results continue to support the investment?

It's fascinating how tech and innovation continues to move us forward. In Wichita it's about the airplane industry. Whether it's a company that specializes in repairing spindles like those commonly found in manufacturing equipment or a company that came up with a better deicer or new software that manages the supply lines or manufacturing process. In St. Louis it's innovation in various basic industries which has long been that area's strength.

And so it goes, all over the country.

What will become of DPAC?
David Hill has a nice piece in Architect Magazine (HT to Confluence Denver) titled "Reimagining the Denver Performing Arts Complex" Our good friend Michael Paglia is quoted and there's even a nod to Jane Jacobs.

[mhays]

Do you REALLY want to get into the Koch brothers and the right wing? That's not the purpose of this board, and you'd lose. SSP is full of people above 100 IQ. I'm sure that plant has a great PR machine though.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by mhays

Do you REALLY want to get into the Koch brothers and the right wing? That's not the purpose of this board, and you'd lose. SSP is full of people above 100 IQ. I'm sure that plant has a great PR machine though.

I'm always humored by life's many ironies. While "they" understand and love their bombs and bullets they can't help but rail against all the gubmint waste for R&D on libral things. Then a decade down the road they're all too happy to incorporate many of the R&D results into their own businesses.

I can't wait to see what the clustermess that is Congress comes up with for the pending transportation funding bill.

Originally Posted by wong21fr

Oh, and here's hoping for Morgan Carroll to go down in flames. I'll take Coffman any day over here tort-loving 🞵🞵🞵.

She's bitten off quite the challenge there but it matters not who wins as that race is for Congress; she'll be gone from the statehouse, gratefully.

Originally Posted by mhays

It's also useful to note that "Downtown" represents a tiny percentage of the local population. Based on a reasonable radius you might be talking less than 1% of the metro. Getting to 2% (let alone 5% like Vancouver) would take multiple booms of this size. But all it takes is a shift in thinking among a small part of the 100%, a shift that's already happened to a good extent.

Good points along with downtown currently having over 120,000 employees which will grow providing an endless pool of prospects. As you suggested Whole Foods should appeal to a different type of resident as well.

[DownhomeDenver]

Say goodbye to the uptown Tavern. According to the latest BusinessDen, The property has been sold to Southern land Company which is currently building on the old Mile High United Way site. Looks like the development will eat up a very sizable parking lot. I'm gonna miss that two story Italianate building the tavern sits in. Oh well.

[enjo13]

Originally Posted by DownhomeDenver

Say goodbye to the uptown Tavern. According to the latest BusinessDen, The property has been sold to Southern land Company which is currently building on the old Mile High United Way site. Looks like the development will eat up a very sizable parking lot. I'm gonna miss that two story Italianate building the tavern sits in. Oh well.

I know they've been having some real flooding issues in that building...

[awholeparade]

They're going to level that building?!

[corey]

Speaking of Uprown, when is that janky 🞵🞵🞵 car wash lot going to be redeveloped? Seriously. Land banking at its worst. Maybe if more of the owners of properties like this would sell to developers nice old buildings like Uptown Tavern wouldn't get torn down.