DENVER | Main Development Thread #6

[Denverite]

You guys seemingly have no ability to infer or quantify the current state of the economy when factoring in things based on observation and/or experience. I can't help you with that. Things are awfully fluid in Colorado, and as I already noted, you're not going to find a study that analyzes immigration due solely to MJ. Let alone, even if asked many may not admit to it.

Sam Hill, you stated "Denver's skyrocketing housing costs began long before marijuana was legalized." If by "long before" you mean only a couple years, then maybe. But I remember the housing slump rather well and it was not long ago.

Zillow is useful, but often inaccurate at micro levels.

[Denverite]

Originally Posted by The Dirt

Find us some data to back this up. This is a pretty bold and dubious claim, especially since you're tying it directly to the housing price increases, which started well before legalization. Anecdotal evidence with a pretty obvious confirmation bias isn't going to cut it.

As you can see, both rates have been declining at a much higher rate than the national average well before legalization.

Couple things - regardless of these numbers, you can't deduce the number of in-migration of people who moved here primarily to partake in the MJ industry any more than I can, but how can you deny its impact on the local economy?

Secondly, medical marijuana was the start of this. There are numerous articles discussing the migration to Colorado for people seeking cannabis treatment, which I wholly support. I don't remember what year the MMJ started, was it 2008? Regardless, it was closer to 2007-2008 that we need to start to look at migration numbers, if you want to have the debate over MJ's impact on our population and economy.

Here's what cracks me up with you guys, you fail to understand that there are tens of thousands of MJ users - both recreational and medicinal - living here, add in thousands of pot tourists. They spend hundreds of millions on MJ-related products - the weed itself, accessories, clothing, etc. Add in the industry side into the equation - all of the infrastructure, buildings, materials, advertising, and security needed to run a business like this. Then add into the mix the restaurants and bars that knew they could capitalize on the munchies. MJ's impact is H-U-G-E! To think that MJ has not had a likely deciding factor on the state or our economy - at least along the Front Range - then you just don't get it, and lack basic inference skills.

D.

[Sam Hill]

Originally Posted by Denverite

Sam Hill, you stated "Denver's skyrocketing housing costs began long before marijuana was legalized." If by "long before" you mean only a couple years, then maybe.

Yeah that's pretty much what I meant. Everything's relative. Marijuana has only been legal for a couple years.

I've met people who agree with you. I've seen the funny "re-illegalize it" t-shirts. The sentiment is out there - I'm just not buying it. I've been watching Denver's economy closely and I see a lot of very positive things happening that are driving Denver's job growth and population gains. Colorado's nascent marijuana industry is only a small part of it. We'll just have to agree to disagree I guess.

[Sam Hill]

Originally Posted by Denverite

then you just don't get it, and lack basic inference skills.

lol! I'll have to take some inference lessons.

[Denverite]

I suppose this is just all hyperbole to you...

http://www.thcmag.com/the-great-marijuana-migration/

http://www.theweedblog.com/colorados-marijuana-legalization-drawing-immigrants-and-tourists/

http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_26216037/legal-pot-blamed-some-influx-homeless-this-summer

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/20...do-following-marijuana-legalization.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/06/us/fam...-frontier-on-medical-marijuana.html?_r=0

[CherryCreek]

Originally Posted by Denverite

I suppose this is just all hyperbole to you...

http://www.thcmag.com/the-great-marijuana-migration/

http://www.theweedblog.com/colorados-marijuana-legalization-drawing-immigrants-and-tourists/

http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_26216037/legal-pot-blamed-some-influx-homeless-this-summer

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/20...do-following-marijuana-legalization.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/06/us/fam...-frontier-on-medical-marijuana.html?_r=0

I read all of the links.. There's nothing there. Nada. Lots of the usual trite media coverage of Colorado marijuana but absolutely nothing to support your suggestion that legalized marijuana is driving the increase in housing prices in Denver.

Your own link to the Denver Post suggests that marijuana has led to sharp increase in homeless persons. I'm sure that's really a big plus to persons thinking about moving to the most expensive city in the U.S. outside of the coasts and willing to spend $2,000 month for an apartment. Homeless pot smokers. Yay!

I think legalized marijuana has nothing to do with the sharp rise in housing costs. If anything, I suspect it's a drag on prices and the price increase would have been greater if marijuana had never been legalized. This "marijuana leads to housing price surge" is the fantasy of marijuana bloggers and lazy mainstream journalists looking for an easy click.

[Denverite]

Originally Posted by CherryCreek

I read all of the links.. There's nothing there. Nada. Lots of the usual trite media coverage of Colorado marijuana but absolutely nothing to support your suggestion that legalized marijuana is driving the increase in housing prices in Denver.

Your own link to the Denver Post suggests that marijuana has led to sharp increase in homeless persons. I'm sure that's really a big plus to persons thinking about moving to the most expensive city in the U.S. outside of the coasts and willing to spend $2,000 month for an apartment. Homeless pot smokers. Yay!

I think legalized marijuana has nothing to do with the sharp rise in housing costs. If anything, I suspect it's a drag on prices and the price increase would have been greater if marijuana had never been legalized. This "marijuana leads to housing price surge" is the fantasy of marijuana bloggers and lazy mainstream journalists looking for an easy click.

Ok.

Yeah, nearly a BILLION dollar industry in Colorado ALONE... and you think it's had nothing to do with our housing prices... oh, wait, you think it's had a NEGATIVE impact on housing prices. LOL. Keep em coming.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonk...on-in-sales-last-year-1-billion-by-2016/

[DownhomeDenver]

Wait I thought Denver's high housing costs were all caused by those damn Californians who moved here in droves in the 90s?!?!?! Are you telling me now it's all this damn weed. Fuck, that sucks.

So can you explain to me why the Denver metro areas housing prices have been ridiculously high in comparison to other areas of the country for decades?

[Denverite]

Originally Posted by DownhomeDenver

Wait I thought Denver's high housing costs were all caused by those damn Californians who moved here in droves in the 90s?!?!?! Are you telling me now it's all this damn weed. Fuck, that sucks.

So can you explain to me why the Denver metro areas housing prices have been ridiculously high in comparison to other areas of the country for decades?

So you admit that high home prices are based, in large part, on demand. Which is what I have been saying.

I don't know that I'd say home prices here have been "ridiculously high", except until the last couple years. It's true that Denver home prices have been on the high end for a long time when comparing similar product in other markets. I've heard various reasons for this, including the cost to ship materials out here which is transferred to the buyer, limited developable space (that is in proximity to established infrastructure and schools), premium are added for houses with good views - one home with a view could demand 10-15% more than its counterpart just down the street which may not have a view. And, yeah, Colorado is a desirable place to live. Really, there are a lot of reasons. Some have more weight than others when dictating a home price and those variables themselves can change based on market conditions.

[CherryCreek]

Originally Posted by Denverite

Ok.

Yeah, nearly a BILLION dollar industry in Colorado ALONE... and you think it's had nothing to do with our housing prices... oh, wait, you think it's had a NEGATIVE impact on housing prices. LOL. Keep em coming.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonk...on-in-sales-last-year-1-billion-by-2016/

Geeze, let's see. The govt. spent almost a billion on the vet hospital in Aurora. Maybe that's driving prices even more than pot?? At least those were all high paying construction jobs!

I have no doubt that pot is attracting some people to Colorado and have seen the higher homeless numbers myself. But the fallacy is that 20 something potheads or homeless hanging out high in Denver are driving up prices.

[RyanD]

You guys catch the sunset last night?


Centennial Gardens Sunset by Ryan Dravitz, on Flickr


Centennial Gardens - 03 by Ryan Dravitz, on Flickr


Centennial Gardens - 01 by Ryan Dravitz, on Flickr


Riverfront Park Sunset by Ryan Dravitz, on Flickr

Forgot Eliches!!! Let's tear it down and redevelop it because there aren't enough parking lots around right guys?


Elich Gardens by Ryan Dravitz, on Flickr

[Denverite]

Originally Posted by CherryCreek

Geeze, let's see. The govt. spent almost a billion on the vet hospital in Aurora. Maybe that's driving prices even more than pot?? At least those were all high paying construction jobs!

Apples and oranges. The Billion-dollar price tag for a hospital project is a lot different than a Billion-dollar industry.

Originally Posted by CherryCreek

I have no doubt that pot is attracting some people to Colorado and have seen the higher homeless numbers myself. But the fallacy is that 20 something potheads or homeless hanging out high in Denver are driving up prices.

So, I cited several articles that, while offer no hard statistics, clearly indicate the impact MJ has on our economy with actual monetary numbers and numerous stories about MJ entrepreneurs and people moving here.

You guys asked for proof to back up my claim. Now where is yours?

I think you need to ask yourself if home prices would be the same level had Recreational MJ not passed. Don't you think that subtracting out the MJ industry, including all of the MJ dispensaries (more than Starbucks, and employing more people than Starbucks) and all if their spin-off businesses, and tourism, and out of state interest in moving here would have had resulted is less of a rise in home and rental prices?

[Denverite]

Speaking of the VA, does anyone here have a solid answer as to why the VA ballooned to $2-Billion? That seems so unbelievably bloated to me. I've read several stories from poor estimating to bad engineering. The only story I heard that I felt could justify a portion of the increase was there were some unforeseen soil problems, but that's about all I heard.

[Brainpathology]

The billion dollar industry was ALREADY HERE.. it was just illegal. Marijuana wasn't invented in 2013; it was legalized and economic activity attributable to non medical use was counted then. There isn't a brand new billion dollar industry.. there's a brand new billion dollar taxable money pool.

Who would actually move here now for legalized non-medicinal pot? There would be a subset who wouldn't have the means to see a dr in the first place (for medical MJ). Such as the homeless you mentioned, stoners who wouldn't afford a house in the exurbiest of exurbs of Las Vegas in the middle of the housing collapse, let alone Denver now. A few growers probably, if they did great yeah maybe they buy a house in Denver. A doctor or two who want to specialize in pain management..there's a few houses I suppose.

There was almost certainly an uptick in tourism due to drug tourism (a small increase, as if Denver had nothing else to offer than legal weed), Because I'm sure there a millions of people affluent enough to travel but too stupid to find a local dealer to get small amount of pot to get high with. But those people don't buy houses and they don't create enough jobs that pay to afford 750k houses. The remainder of the hordes of pot smokers coming to Colorado SPECIFICALLY so they can do pot must have had some sort of debilitating condition that kept them from asking for a red card here between 2000 and 2014.

How many people had a specific situational aphasia from 2000-2014 which prevented them from saying "I have trouble sleeping" or "I have a headache" or "I have anxiety" to Drs to get a red card? Because those would be the ONLY people who would move specifically to Colorado for legal pot following 2014. I imagine it's possible, although probably case reportable, to have an infarct that causes those exact phrases to be impossible to articulate for patients when they attempt to have a Dr at a clinic prescribe them cannabis. And I also don't recall that specific group lobbying for the legalization to pass so that that terrible injustice could be righted.

But I'm sure that's what happened. Denver has a population of thousands of cannabis users, each with a tiny little stroke in the exact same part of the brain, causing the exact same symptoms described above, who ALL raced here when the barrier from them getting medicinal MJ was lifted in 2014. And THAT makes WAY more sense then the construction defect law preventing enough supply of housing.

Just how much are construction liability attorneys paying you to post here? Bunt? Are your friends behind this???

[CherryCreek]

Originally Posted by Denverite

Apples and oranges. The Billion-dollar price tag for a hospital project is a lot different than a Billion-dollar industry.



So, I cited several articles that, while offer no hard statistics, clearly indicate the impact MJ has on our economy with actual monetary numbers and numerous stories about MJ entrepreneurs and people moving here.

You guys asked for proof to back up my claim. Now where is yours?

I think you need to ask yourself if home prices would be the same level had Recreational MJ not passed. Don't you think that subtracting out the MJ industry, including all of the MJ dispensaries (more than Starbucks, and employing more people than Starbucks) and all if their spin-off businesses, and tourism, and out of state interest in moving here would have had resulted is less of a rise in home and rental prices?

Okay, here's some numbers. Per DBJ the Denver metro GDP in 2013 was almost $180 billion. So at 1 billion, the pot industry comprises a little more than 1/2 of 1 percent of the local economy (though your quote for the pot industry was for all of Colorado, not Denver).


http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/blog/f...dustry-propels-metro-denver-economy.html

Given that other areas of the local economy such as high tech and financial services are also experiencing high growth, it seems very far fetched to point to this one "billion dollar" industry as being the key factor, or even a key factor for the sharp rise in housing costs.

[Denverite]

Originally Posted by Brainpathology

The billion dollar industry was ALREADY HERE..

That's absolutely not true.

Originally Posted by Brainpathology

Marijuana wasn't invented in 2013; it was legalized and economic activity attributable to non medical use was counted then. There isn't a brand new billion dollar industry.. there's a brand new billion dollar taxable money pool.

This statement doesn't even make an ounce of sense. It's of course a billion-dollar-industry, at least in its first few years as we see more pot shops, grow operations, and spin-off business popping up. It will probably stabilize here within a few years.

Originally Posted by Brainpathology

Who would actually move here now for legalized non-medicinal pot? There would be a subset who wouldn't have the means to see a dr in the first place (for medical MJ). Such as the homeless you mentioned, stoners who wouldn't afford a house in the exurbiest of exurbs of Las Vegas in the middle of the housing collapse, let alone Denver now. A few growers probably, if they did great yeah maybe they buy a house in Denver. A doctor or two who want to specialize in pain management..there's a few houses I suppose.

You have absolutely no grip on the effect of the MJ industry.

Originally Posted by Brainpathology

But those people don't buy houses and they don't create enough jobs that pay to afford 750k houses. The remainder of the hordes of pot smokers coming to Colorado SPECIFICALLY so they can do pot must have had some sort of debilitating condition that kept them from asking for a red card here between 2000 and 2014.

Again, I'm not following... wouldn't having a debilitating condition be a compelling reason to be able to receive a red card? Also, who said anything about $750k homes? That's out of reach for most people.

Originally Posted by Brainpathology

How many people had a specific situational aphasia from 2000-2014 which prevented them from saying "I have trouble sleeping" or "I have a headache" or "I have anxiety" to Drs to get a red card? Because those would be the ONLY people who would move specifically to Colorado for legal pot following 2014.

Again, I'm not following. Are you saying that medicinal marijuana is easily accessible in every single state east of Colorado? In Kansas? Nebraska? Wyoming (to the North)? Utah (to the West)?

Originally Posted by Brainpathology

But I'm sure that's what happened. Denver has a population of thousands of cannabis users, each with a tiny little stroke in the exact same part of the brain, causing the exact same symptoms described above, who ALL raced here when the barrier from them getting medicinal MJ was lifted in 2014. And THAT makes WAY more sense then the construction defect law preventing enough supply of housing.

You may consider seeking counseling.

Originally Posted by Brainpathology

Just how much are construction liability attorneys paying you to post here? Bunt? Are your friends behind this???

Sigh. I have no agenda. I'm just discussing and debating.

[Denverite]

Originally Posted by CherryCreek

Okay, here's some numbers. Per DBJ the Denver metro GDP in 2013 was almost $180 billion. So at 1 billion, the pot industry comprises a little more than 1/2 of 1 percent of the local economy (though your quote for the pot industry was for all of Colorado, not Denver).

A Denver metro GDP does not necessarily directly correlate (probably barely at all unless there are bigger swings to GDP) to the effects of home prices that in-migration and their demand for housing in a market with low vacancy. Not to mention those who are native who are moving upward financially and looking for single-family home or a nicer condo community as well. There's a lot of competition for rooms. I just spoke with my neighbor who said someone drove past, stopped, backed up, and asked if they'd sell their house. Right there, sight unseen, and with no for-sale sign in the yard. That's not the first time I've heard that happening.

[mojiferous]

Originally Posted by RyanD

Forgot Eliches!!! Let's tear it down and redevelop it because there aren't enough parking lots around right guys?

Yes! I've been there once and hated it, so it must be terrible and the perfect place to have nothing while we build for infrastructure and find funding.

And then I will immediately bemoan its loss and reminisce how Denver once had one of the few urban amusement parks once it becomes clear that the huge area will be filled with boring stick-built buildings and disconnected from the rest of the city by a river, a highway, an elevated artery, and a sporting venue and college campus.

[Denverite]

Originally Posted by mojiferous

And then I will immediately bemoan its loss and reminisce how Denver once had one of the few urban amusement parks once it becomes clear that the huge area will be filled with boring stick-built buildings and disconnected from the rest of the city by a river, a highway, an elevated artery, and a sporting venue and college campus.

I've only been to the old Elitch's but I would miss the downtown location. I think it is important that it stays there, and I would miss it if it moved too.

[Sam Hill]

You came in here making a hyperbolic statement along the lines of, "everybody knows the legalization of marijuana is responsible for the bulk of the housing cost increases," and since then it has been meticulously proved, with real data, that your claim is an exaggeration (to put it mildly). You've chosen to completely ignore these facts and have offered nothing but anecdotes and conjecture to back up your argument. And now you have the nerve to make a statement like this:

Originally Posted by Denverite

You guys asked for proof to back up my claim. Now where is yours?

You're getting increasingly unreasonable and defiant as this argument goes along and I think at this point you're just hijacking the thread.

I would hate to see this thread degenerate into countless exhausting pages about "the marijuana thing" the way the SLC thread tends to degenerate into an endless argument about "the Mormon thing."