Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Pinion

Now quote someone that is actually from Vancouver/Vancouver Island who denies it. It's like saying Chinese people aren't moving to Vancouver - if you have eyes you know better.

My assertion was that way more Ontarians spend winter in, say, Florida, than there are Ontarians who do so in BC.

So far plenty of unrelated-to-each-other Ontarians have chimed in to all basically say they hadn't heard of any Ontarians retiring to BC, but Florida or the Caribbean, yes.

Not to mention that I KEEP bumping into other Québécois or Ontarians when in Florida during winter, much more so than I did during my weeks in BC.

So, yes, anecdotally, you might have some Ontarian retirees around where you are, but it's pretty safe that it's actually a small number of Ontarian retirees, even though it might seem large to you at first sight, compared to the number of Ontarian retirees who are doing the snowbird thing.

[someone123]

On top of the usual observer bias you need to remember that scale is important too. A lot of Vancouverites are Chinese, but there are many more Chinese people than Vancouverites, so Vancouver is a miniscule destination as far as Chinese migration is concerned. The ratio isn't as large with Ontario or even all of Canada outside of BC but the effect is similar. Analysis of the population of Vancouver tells you next to nothing about the dominant migration trends nationally or internationally. Anecdotes are, of course, much worse than even that.

I think this is why you get such diverging opinions from people who live in different places. The opinions themselves can even both be right. You can have a population that is largely unaware of another place full of their former neighbours.

[st7860]

English Bay in February. Many people move from east to BC for retirement, study, and work

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by st7860

English Bay in February. Many people move from east to BC for retirement, study, and work

yeah but...

statcan 2012-13

BC had a net negative interprovincial migration rate, along with Ontario, Quebec, and most other provinces aside from Alberta (although more recent figures will probably show a shift).

[flar]

Why would anyone move to BC for retirement? Housing costs are high and cold, rainy winters are bad for old bones. Doesn't make sense.

[urbandreamer]

I know a number of old folks that have moved to the Victoria area from Ontario. Some also are moving to Nanaimo.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by flar

Why would anyone move to BC for retirement? Housing costs are high and cold, rainy winters are bad for old bones. Doesn't make sense.

As the saying goes, Google is your friend. If you scroll down t page 3 of this pdf you'll see BMO gave seniors polled three choices when retiring: stay in home province, move to BC, move to other province. The fact that BC is the only one broken out bears out its appeal as a retirement destination, and the poll numbers back it up.

Same culture, medical coverage and outside of Vancouver its not that expensive. Even in Vancouver you find plenty of seniors who have gladly given up maintaining a house for the ease and lower cost of a 1 bedroom condo.

[matthew6]

What exactly is the argument here?

B.C is an attractive place to many Canadians because of the mild climate. That being said, most eastern Canadians prefer to winter in the south rather than in B.C.

[TownGuy]

^ BC is not mild it is just less cold. That is why most people go to Florida.

Also, and someone123 alluded to this, Ontario by being by far the most populace province probably has retirees scattered all over North America in great numbers. BC is not some hotspot. I've never even heard of it being a thing.

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by TownGuy

^ BC is not mild it is just less cold. That is why most people go to Florida.

Hmm I'd most definitely disagree with that. With an average high of over 8 degrees in the month, Going back to Vancouver in February definitely feels mild. I'm sure to a Brazilian it would be cold, but in the Canadian context Vancouver is most definitely mild.


Mild: (of weather) moderately warm, especially less cold than expected.
"it is still mild enough to work outdoors"
synonyms: warm, balmy, temperate, clement

[lio45]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

... but in the Canadian context Vancouver is most definitely mild.

FYI, no one ever disputed that. Adding that bit makes all the difference in the world. Just like of the following two statements, I will agree with one, and I will vehemently disagree with the other:

1) "Winters in Novosibirsk are warm"

2) "In a Siberian context, winters in Novosibirsk are mild"

Exact same thing here... No place in Canada is hot in winter. It goes from cool to cold to very cold. If you want to call cool "hot in a Canadian context", as long as that's clear, it's fine. But in the context of the complete set of all the places not-further-from-home-than-BC where Canadian retirees can easily choose to spend their winters after retirement, BC definitely doesn't have "warm" winters. That was the discussion, originally.




(And FWIW I'd be extremely skeptical of anyone stating something like "winters in Novosibirsk are warm, which is why retirees from all over the globe choose to relocate to Novosibirsk".)

[LeftCoaster]

Well the context of the discussion was Canadian retirees, so I don't feel as though that 'context' as you put it was too misleading. Unlike referencing Siberia.

And honestly, it's not far off from needing context. a high of 8 and an average low never going below 0 really isn't that cold, in fact the high is only a couple degrees colder than places like Charlotte or Monaco. Hardly places I'd say have "cold" winters.

[Berklon]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

And honestly, it's not far off from needing context. a high of 8 and an average low never going below 0 really isn't that cold, in fact the high is only a couple degrees colder than places like Charlotte or Monaco. Hardly places I'd say have "cold" winters.

Remember, we're talking about retirees - usually 65 years and older. 8 degrees is cold for them... even 20 is barely acceptable. That's why the majority of retired people in Canada and the Northern US move to places like California, Florida and Arizona. Do you hear of many people in New York or Minnesota retiring to Washington State or Oregon? That's the equivalent.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Well the context of the discussion was Canadian retirees, so I don't feel as though that 'context' as you put it was too misleading. Unlike referencing Siberia.

The original context of the discussion that we've been having this time has always included Florida, Arizona as places where Canadian retirees might choose to go.

And honestly, it's not far off from needing context. a high of 8 and an average low never going below 0 really isn't that cold.

It's actually pretty cold when you look at it in the context of "the list of the most common places where (Eastern) Canadian retirees choose to buy a property away from home to go and spend their winters".

Which is the appropriate context here.

[st7860]

http://www.livingin-canada.com/climate-vancouver.html
"Unusually for a Canadian city, Vancouver has relatively mild winters with little snow. The cold air from the Arctic that sweeps over the rest of Canada in winter is unable to reach Vancouver. The Rocky Mountains block it.
Combine the lack of Arctic air with the mildness of Vancouver’s location on the shores of the Pacific Ocean and it’s not surprising that Vancouver is the warmest of Canada’s major metropolitan cities in winter by far"

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Berklon

Remember, we're talking about retirees - usually 65 years and older. 8 degrees is cold for them... even 20 is barely acceptable. That's why the majority of retired people in Canada and the Northern US move to places like California, Florida and Arizona. Do you hear of many people in New York or Minnesota retiring to Washington State or Oregon? That's the equivalent.

8 degrees... as the daily HIGH... and often rainy... several thousands km away from home... with nearly the most expensive real estate on the continent...

Sure, sign me up for that retirement paradise...

[LeftCoaster]

I can't imagine too many would retire in Vancouver, especially when places are much cheaper and warmer down south, be it Florida, the Caribbean, Arizona etc... Never said that. All I said was that calling Vancouver mild is hardly a stretch. Given that it's not much colder than much of the US or the northern med, I'd say it's hardly a stretch even for non-Canadians.

Mild ≠ warm.

[st7860]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/canada-is-a-great-place-to-retire-2012-06-21
"I would NOT want to retire in most of Canada simply because of the lousy weather. Except, that is, for Vancouver and Victoria, in temperate British Columbia. I endured seven years of brutal Montreal winters, and it was tough, even when I was a young man. Toronto’s winters are often rated as bad as Chicago’s."

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by Berklon

Remember, we're talking about retirees - usually 65 years and older. 8 degrees is cold for them... even 20 is barely acceptable. That's why the majority of retired people in Canada and the Northern US move to places like California, Florida and Arizona. Do you hear of many people in New York or Minnesota retiring to Washington State or Oregon? That's the equivalent.

Sure, but no one says Florida or Arizona have mild winters, they say they have warm winters, which is why I would say the PNW has mild winters.

If winters in the PNW are cold, what are winters here in Toronto, or Saskatoon for that matter??

[theman23]

Originally Posted by st7860

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/canada-is-a-great-place-to-retire-2012-06-21
"I would NOT want to retire in most of Canada simply because of the lousy weather. Except, that is, for Vancouver and Victoria, in temperate British Columbia. I endured seven years of brutal Montreal winters, and it was tough, even when I was a young man. Toronto’s winters are often rated as bad as Chicago’s."

Despite all the links you've posted, there still isn't any concrete evidence that a large number of Canadians retire from the east to BC. No one 65+ is going to be moving out to BC when Ft. Lauderdale is a quicker and cheaper flight away.