Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting

[hipster duck]

^Cool! That map actually reveals that Toronto is not "sprawling" because its urban footprint has remained relatively constant with population growth over time.

For example, in 1945 the GTA, not including Hamilton or Oshawa, probably had a population of just under 1.5 million. Nowadays it has a population of over 6 million. But the amount of land gobbled up by development in the past 70 years is not much more than 4X what was developed then.

Compare that to Peterborough. In 1945, "Greater" Peterborough had a population of about 30,000 and today "Greater" (the area that you see coloured in - officially it's higher but that includes a lot of incorporated villages pretty far away) is about 90,000. But the land area covered today since the little black dot in 1945 is well over 3X as big. So Peterborough really sprawled.

Actually, Toronto is even more impressive because the average occupancy per housing unit was much higher back then. So Toronto increased its population 4X but it probably increased the number of dwelling units by an even higher amount. Despite that, it still occupies about 4X the land area of 1945.

[casper]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

^Cool! That map actually reveals that Toronto is not "sprawling" because its urban footprint has remained relatively constant with population growth over time.

For example, in 1945 the GTA, not including Hamilton or Oshawa, probably had a population of just under 1.5 million. Nowadays it has a population of over 6 million. But the amount of land gobbled up by development in the past 70 years is not much more than 4X what was developed then.

Compare that to Peterborough. In 1945, "Greater" Peterborough had a population of about 30,000 and today "Greater" (the area that you see coloured in - officially it's higher but that includes a lot of incorporated villages pretty far away) is about 90,000. But the land area covered today since the little black dot in 1945 is well over 3X as big. So Peterborough really sprawled.

Actually, Toronto is even more impressive because the average occupancy per housing unit was much higher back then. So Toronto increased its population 4X but it probably increased the number of dwelling units by an even higher amount. Despite that, it still occupies about 4X the land area of 1945.

I don't know. I agree it looks like the urban footprint doubled between 45 and 67 and again doubled after that.

In comparison the City of Vancouver pretty much has the same boundaries with a 150% increase in population (275k in 1941 and 600k today).

When you look at Metro Vancouver the increase is even greater and yes there has been loss of farm land to urban sprawl.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by casper

I don't know. I agree it looks like the urban footprint doubled between 45 and 67 and again doubled after that.

I have too much time on my hands so I checked a histogram of the image. The 1981-2013 built-up sections actually cover on the order of 4 times as much area as the pre-1945 ones. The increase in land consumption is more on the order of 8-10 times; it appears that land consumption per capita has gone up, which is what I would have expected. 905 belt sprawl is much worse than the pre-war building stock of the old city in terms of land consumption.

[st7860]

higher prices keep property taxes lower for everyone else

http://www.vancourier.com/opinion/govern...n-vancouver-real-estate-market-1.1941361
If you have noticed a persistent ringing in your ears lately, take heart as we all are hearing it. It is the sound of government cash registers as they rake in revenue from Vancouver’s record-breaking real estate market.

What you will certainly not hear above the din is any politician saying they will make any changes that could risk driving down housing prices. That is because they are too dependent on the dollars it brings into government coffers.

In you still think that an elected official will come to the rescue of those trying to buy into Vancouver’s hyper-inflated single-family housing market, please note the following.

There are 757 million reasons why the B.C. government will not intervene. That figure represents the total the amount in dollars the government raised in property transfer taxes in the last fiscal year. Buying and selling homes is big business in B.C., and that figure could go as high as $1 billion if 2015 sales projections hold.

There are nearly 1.9 billion reasons why Mayor Gregor Robertson will keep his mouth zipped over double-digit property assessment increases across our city. The City of Vancouver issued $1.88-billion worth of residential permits in 2014. Overall this represents a 77 per cent increase over 2008.

[casper]

Originally Posted by st7860

higher prices keep property taxes lower for everyone else

http://www.vancourier.com/opinion/govern...n-vancouver-real-estate-market-1.1941361
If you have noticed a persistent ringing in your ears lately, take heart as we all are hearing it. It is the sound of government cash registers as they rake in revenue from Vancouver’s record-breaking real estate market.

What you will certainly not hear above the din is any politician saying they will make any changes that could risk driving down housing prices. That is because they are too dependent on the dollars it brings into government coffers.

In you still think that an elected official will come to the rescue of those trying to buy into Vancouver’s hyper-inflated single-family housing market, please note the following.

There are 757 million reasons why the B.C. government will not intervene. That figure represents the total the amount in dollars the government raised in property transfer taxes in the last fiscal year. Buying and selling homes is big business in B.C., and that figure could go as high as $1 billion if 2015 sales projections hold.

There are nearly 1.9 billion reasons why Mayor Gregor Robertson will keep his mouth zipped over double-digit property assessment increases across our city. The City of Vancouver issued $1.88-billion worth of residential permits in 2014. Overall this represents a 77 per cent increase over 2008.

Municipal taxes are usually just divided up among all the properties in the municipality based on relative value. For everyone who pays less there is someone who pays more. Now if it is investment property and the owner does not quality for a homeowners grant that is different.

The transfer tax is something I was not expecting to see when I bought out here. It does not exist in Saskatchewan. I still don't quite understand why that tax exists. It sole purpose appears to be to discourage the sale of property.

[st7860]

Originally Posted by casper

Municipal taxes are usually just divided up among all the properties in the municipality based on relative value. For everyone who pays less there is someone who pays more. Now if it is investment property and the owner does not quality for a homeowners grant that is different.

The transfer tax is something I was not expecting to see when I bought out here. It does not exist in Saskatchewan. I still don't quite understand why that tax exists. It sole purpose appears to be to discourage the sale of property.

The transfer tax was brought in many years ago to supplement provincial revenue, and now it seems the Government is depending heavily on it as income taxes have been greatly reduced in the past 10 years.

[someone123]

A lucid description of what's going on in Vancouver: http://m.scmp.com/comment/blogs/article/...wrong-vancouvers-housing-market-and-time

[MolsonExport]

It is relatively easy to change the mill rate.

[dleung]

This chart:

https://postmediavancouversun.files.word...3d109c3bf058473305d29a1b.jpg?w=437&h=357

Basically 2/3rds of all millionaire immigrants to Canada went to Vancouver lol

[casper]

Originally Posted by dleung

This chart:
.....

Basically 2/3rds of all millionaire immigrants to Canada went to Vancouver lol

This is positive for Vancouver. It means we created the correct environment to attract capital into the city. This is money that is required to be invested in small business (what creates jobs and helps diversify the economy in Canada). Given there is a backlog the feds need to work on improving the process to accelerate the growth.

Ontario, Michigan, New York State and host of other regions invest a lot of money trying to attract business to relocate into there region.

Sixty years ago the waves of immigrants to Canada were from Europe (and a large proportion did not have much money) today it is China. The origin of where immigrants come from should not matter.

[st7860]

Originally Posted by casper

This is positive for Vancouver. It means we created the correct environment to attract capital into the city. This is money that is required to be invested in small business (what creates jobs and helps diversify the economy in Canada). Given there is a backlog the feds need to work on improving the process to accelerate the growth.

Ontario, Michigan, New York State and host of other regions invest a lot of money trying to attract business to relocate into there region.

Sixty years ago the waves of immigrants to Canada were from Europe (and a large proportion did not have much money) today it is China. The origin of where immigrants come from should not matter.

Exactly. However, people on other boards make a lot of noise about how it is better for a 'generic low income individual' to pay a few grand in income taxes instead of a Rich Bastard(tm) paying is more than that in other types of Canadian taxes(property tax, transfer tax, gas tax, tax on vehicles, and so on) .

Since the racially motivated anti foreigner chants of spring haven't gained much traction in Vancouver, the newest thing is to target empty homes(which in most cases have the property taxes paid and if they are not maintained the city is allowed to clean up the external areas and send them a bill)

This site is a good example of many nice cars at just one school.
http://universityofbeautifulcars.tumblr.com/

People were complaining that UBC spent 127 million to build a new school just for international students, while ignoring the fact that UBC will be getting 50 million dollars a year in tuition from 1000 students($50,000 each)
Normal foreign students pay about $25,000 a year tuition, which is 4 times the domestic rate. That saves on taxes for Canadians!
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-co...llege-canadians-need-not-apply-1.2826142

[caltrane74]

http://www.thestar.com/business/2015/05/...ners-in-it-for-the-long-haul-survey.html

Most Toronto condo owners in it for the long haul: Survey

The CMHC report dispels the view that Toronto condo owners are mostly speculators who have an eye on flipping their units for a quick profit.

Condo investors in Canada’s two biggest condo markets – Toronto and Vancouver – appear to be in it for the long haul, with plans to keep their units at least five years and rent them out, rather than flip them for a quick profit, according to a new survey by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.

The federal housing corporation surveyed 42,191 domestic condo owners in those two cities last August and September and found 83.8 per cent actually live in their unit.

The other 16.2 per cent own a primary residence and at least one condo, and about 52.3 per cent of those units were rented out. Some 33 per cent were occupied by family or friends and about 7.6 per cent were sitting empty through a combination of being for sale, yet to be rented or under renovation, says the Condominium Owners Report released Friday, an update of a survey first done in August of 2014.

About 4 per cent of those investment condos were yet to be built or under construction, according to the survey, which only looked at a portion of domestic owners and excluded foreign owners, corporate investors and Canadians who own condos in Vancouver or Toronto but live outside those cities.

[Mister F]

Originally Posted by TownGuy

The Greenbelt already runs east of Cobourg. It doesn't wrap around south to Lake Ontario though which is interesting.

That's the Oak Ridges Moraine. The Greenbelt doesn't go past Durham Region. I'm nitpicking, I know, since both plans serve similar purposes.

Originally Posted by casper

Please like Ontario don't have an agricultural land reserve. The end result is urban sprawl.

Toronto has a denser (less sprawling) urban area than Vancouver.

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by casper

This is positive for Vancouver. It means we created the correct environment to attract capital into the city. This is money that is required to be invested in small business (what creates jobs and helps diversify the economy in Canada). Given there is a backlog the feds need to work on improving the process to accelerate the growth.

Ontario, Michigan, New York State and host of other regions invest a lot of money trying to attract business to relocate into there region.

Sixty years ago the waves of immigrants to Canada were from Europe (and a large proportion did not have much money) today it is China. The origin of where immigrants come from should not matter.

The problem is not so much the number but rather their "investments". Usually their investments are nothing more than buying a house and flipping it often to clean dirty money.


Also there is NO comparison to traditional immigrants and the Chinese we get now. Immigrants use to be people who not only wanted to live in Canada but also contribute to it. This investor/real estate flippers have almost no attachment to Canada except their real estate. This is made worse by the fact that they have no desire to contribute.

Immigrants were historically {and most still are} people that have a desire to live in Canada and are here to better their lives and contribute to the country. These millionaire Chinese are not interested in becoming Canadians but rather interested in getting a Canadian passport.

Also this UBC {University of Beautiful Cars} or as most call it University of Billionaire Chinese, I don't find that anything to be proud of.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by casper

This is positive for Vancouver. It means we created the correct environment to attract capital into the city. This is money that is required to be invested in small business (what creates jobs and helps diversify the economy in Canada). Given there is a backlog the feds need to work on improving the process to accelerate the growth.

Ontario, Michigan, New York State and host of other regions invest a lot of money trying to attract business to relocate into there region.

Sixty years ago the waves of immigrants to Canada were from Europe (and a large proportion did not have much money) today it is China. The origin of where immigrants come from should not matter.

Good lord, do you honestly believe they pull their money from a low tax, low labour cost, lax environmental regulation jurisdiction to invest in a high tax, high labour cost, stringent ennvironmentally regulated place like Canada?

Their "investment" is nothing more than a house, a Bimmer for the wife and maybe a private education for the kiddies.

[st7860]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Also this UBC {University of Beautiful Cars} or as most call it University of Billionaire Chinese, I don't find that anything to be proud of.

Most now call it the University of Beautiful Cars, the source of pride and satisfaction

[st7860]

Originally Posted by caltrane74

http://www.thestar.com/business/2015/05/...ners-in-it-for-the-long-haul-survey.html

Most Toronto condo owners in it for the long haul: Survey

The CMHC report dispels the view that Toronto condo owners are mostly speculators who have an eye on flipping their units for a quick profit.

Makes sense, unlike the others making racial accusations

[st7860]

http://business.financialpost.com/news/e...hould-be-paying-more-attention-to-canada
"Construction employment as a percentage of total employment hit 7.9 per cent in February, its highest level on record.
"

[Coldrsx]

Simons: Edmonton’s contrary housing market defies expectations


BY PAULA SIMONS, EDMONTON JOURNAL

ls the sky falling?

If you’re an Edmontonian, you might be forgiven for wondering. The news these days is full of doom and gloom. Alberta’s unemployment rate is up. Our bankruptcy rate is up. The Conference Board of Canada and the CIBC are predicting a recession here. The Petroleum Labour Market Information Division of Enform predicts the loss of 185,000 Canadian jobs.

Yet here in Edmonton, CEOs are still sounding bullish, the sky is still full of construction cranes, and the public service seems to be getting a reprieve from major cuts.

It all makes for some very marked regional difference in Alberta right now.

According to a CIBC report, based on data from the Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy of Canada, insolvencies in Calgary were up roughly 10.7 per cent in April, over the same time last year. But insolvencies in Edmonton rose just 2.9 per cent in the same period.

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/opinion/S...+defies+expectations/11075883/story.html

[casper]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Good lord, do you honestly believe they pull their money from a low tax, low labour cost, lax environmental regulation jurisdiction to invest in a high tax, high labour cost, stringent ennvironmentally regulated place like Canada?

Their "investment" is nothing more than a house, a Bimmer for the wife and maybe a private education for the kiddies.

Yes, I do. If you talk to small business owners you discover they are regularly cold called by immigration lawyer and business brokers that want to arrange the sale of their company to an immigrant.

Since this is a class of immigrates that are nominated by the province, they set the rules and they are about to change them. Generally the requirements in the past require the business to have been pre-existing for a certain number of years, employee a certain number of full time employees, there needs to be a commitment to continue to employee that number + 3 etc. new jobs for Canadians. July is when the new updated rules are to be announced. Who know how they will change. http://www.welcomebc.ca/Immigrate/About-the-BC-PNP/Investing-in-B-C.aspx

The investment threshold outside of the lower mainland is lower that in Vancouver, one of the reasons for a fair bit of interest on the island.

The reason someone would pull some of there money out of China to invest in Canada is to hedge there bets and security. The government of China has a pretty poor reputation historically for recognising personal property rights.

Am I surprised that some of this people buy a local business here and then go back to China to continue to run their business over there? No, I am not.