Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting

[ssiguy]

I don't know who you are sunsetmountainland but you have been warned before about keeping your insulting and personal comments to yourself.

Ever since you have started posting your comments seem to always have a personal attack attached to them.

[sunsetmountainland]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

I don't know who you are sunsetmountainland but you have been warned before about keeping your insulting and personal comments to yourself.

Ever since you have started posting your comments seem to always have a personal attack attached to them.

There is nothing but honesty attached to my comments nothing personal! It is just facts. Sorry if the facts do not meet your understandings. Please be clear to post your facts with following credited information. You do not have facts you have thoughts and I was telling my thoughts about your thoughts so when you have facts we can have a proper conversation.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by sunsetmountainland

I agree you should buy farmland in Quebec and hope your high horses it does not separate!

Actually, the land I'm talking about is in New Hampshire, not Quebec. I have no farmland in Quebec (or even just land that isn't urban lots with buildings/parking on it) at this time. Not that it matters much...

I don't think separation would have a significant impact on farm land value anyway, so IMO that shouldn't be a factor against Quebec farmland as an investment.

[sunsetmountainland]

Originally Posted by lio45

Actually, the land I'm talking about is in New Hampshire, not Quebec. I have no farmland in Quebec (or even just land that isn't urban lots with buildings/parking on it) at this time. Not that it matters much...

I don't think separation would have a significant impact on farm land value anyway, so IMO that shouldn't be a factor against Quebec farmland as an investment.

Well that is good to hear. I thought your investments were in Quebec. New Hampshire makes sense. Also, Alberta, Saskatchewan and, to a lesser extent, Manitoba.

http://www2.jurock.com/articles/columnist.asp?id=9545

[GreaterMontréal]

BC has a lot more chance to be destroyed by an Earthquake than Quebec to separate. The Liberals have a strong majority. something similar to Alberta with the NDP.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by sunsetmountainland

Also, Alberta, Saskatchewan and, to a lesser extent, Manitoba.

http://www2.jurock.com/articles/columnist.asp?id=9545

Manitoba for farmland I could see, or SK, but for holding onto long term residential/commercial real estate (which is what the guy in your link was talking about, not farmland -- the article is also two years old, FYI, and was written with oil at ~$115 a barrel), I'd personally avoid AB/SK for being too dependent on depletable/non-renewable primary resources (if the presence of those resources wasn't built into current prices, it would be different). I think I'd prefer Vancouver Island, actually.

[1overcosc]

If Quebec separated, Ottawa would likely experience mixed effects on its real estate. My theory is office & residential would increase somewhat and retail would suffer.

All the federal offices in Gatineau would have to move across the river into Ottawa to remain in Canada, so that would cause a big spike to office real estate in Ottawa.

Some Gatinois who work for the federal government would move across the river to Ottawa to retain their employment in the federal government, so that would cause some residential growth too.

On the other hand, cutting Ottawa off from a third of its metro population would likely negatively impact the demand base for retail.

[urbandreamer]

What if you simply don't care if real estate goes up or down?

If you either a)own a home and live in it forever or b)rent beneath your means forever does the thought of a bubble even matter?

[Berklon]

Originally Posted by urbandreamer

What if you simply don't care if real estate goes up or down?

If you either a)own a home and live in it forever or b)rent beneath your means forever does the thought of a bubble even matter?

With respect to those two personal real estate scenarios, it doesn't matter directly speaking. However, a bubble should be a concern for the whole country because it's bad for the country as a whole and the negative effects trickle down to many segments of the economy. Constantly inflating RE prices are a terrible thing for a country - and we're seeing that now in Canada.

[st7860]

http://www.thestar.com/business/economy/2015/04/28/canada-not-facing-a-housing-bubble-poloz.html

[lio45]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

All the federal offices in Gatineau would have to move across the river into Ottawa to remain in Canada, so that would cause a big spike to office real estate in Ottawa.

The federal government would be downsizing to match that new, smaller Canada (in both population and land), though, mitigating the spike you're describing.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by urbandreamer

What if you simply don't care if real estate goes up or down?

If you either a)own a home and live in it forever or b)rent beneath your means forever does the thought of a bubble even matter?

I have a hard time imagining a). Even if you have no intention to sell, if your current residence is now worth millions, while similar houses in other areas of the country can be had for ten times less, it's something you'll want to know. Same thing if your current residence becomes near-worthless.

For most people, it's such a large chunk of their net worth that even though they aren't planning on moving, they'll keep an eye on it.

[urbandreamer]

Real estate represents 0% of my net worth. (Unless I happen to sell rps someday.)

I could care less what happens, especially since I've realized 95% of the real estate boom has produced absolutely hideous architecture while wrecking many historic communities.

[Berklon]

Originally Posted by st7860

http://www.thestar.com/business/economy/2015/04/28/canada-not-facing-a-housing-bubble-poloz.html

Spin spin spin... and I see you continue to be the messenger of the spin.
You must be a RE agent or have a lot of money invested in RE.

[st7860]

Originally Posted by Berklon

Spin spin spin... and I see you continue to be the messenger of the spin.
You must be a RE agent or have a lot of money invested in RE.

Takes 1 to know 1

Doesn't look like the Governor of the Bank of Canada is a politician nor an agent http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Governor_of_the_Bank_of_Canada

[lio45]

Originally Posted by urbandreamer

I could care less what happens, especially since I've realized 95% of the real estate boom has produced absolutely hideous architecture while wrecking many historic communities.

Agreed. As we all know, on our continent, many areas that are now considered precious for their architectural homogeneity and authenticity owe their survival in such a close-to-intact form to the fact that they were economically relatively stagnant while other places were booming...

That's kind of a reason to care what happens, actually. Affects you and others around you...

[urbandreamer]

^Which is why if I ever buy real estate, it'll be in a place that is cheap for exactly those reasons. Eg, rural Ontario vs Toronto.

[WhipperSnapper]

Originally Posted by urbandreamer

Real estate represents 0% of my net worth. (Unless I happen to sell rps someday.)

I could care less what happens, especially since I've realized 95% of the real estate boom has produced absolutely hideous architecture while wrecking many historic communities.

I wouldn't be that confident. Real estate will be part of any investment portfolio. It is also a core industry in Toronto. A flat out bust will leave its mark on everything and everyone. The irony is that those that have been successful at flipping property for the better part of the boom will still be better off than those that have avoided it.

[st7860]

Originally Posted by WhipperSnapper

I wouldn't be that confident. Real estate will be part of any investment portfolio. It is also a core industry in Toronto. A flat out bust will leave its mark on everything and everyone. The irony is that those that have been successful at flipping property for the better part of the boom will still be better off than those that have avoided it.

Exactly, if real estate goes way down, many jobs including those unrelated may be lost as well.

In addition, even for those that do not care about the yearly ups and downs - Its the easiest way for an average Canadian to have an unlimited tax free gain without using a registered instrument.

[urbandreamer]

^Sure. The 20% involved in the biz will always be wealthier than your average renter.

There are better ways to invest your money--eg: oil or timber stocks. Or start a business that could employ all those unemployed realtors someday...