Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting

[dleung]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Or it provides people like you and st to do your "pay no attention to that man behind the curtain" schtick.

It's actually kind of sad that some strange form of ethnic loyalty prevents you from even acknowledging what's causing a big part of the affordability problem. I'm puzzled as many of my friends from HK look on the Mainland Chinese and their money as the Asian equivalent of the Beverley Hillbillies.

I'm pretty sure I said several times that we should tax the hell out of foreign property purchases and unoccupied homes. It's totally possible to ALSO acknowledge that there's an undercurrent of racism in some of the resentment expressed in this thread.

[st7860]

Originally Posted by dleung

I'm pretty sure I said several times that we should tax the hell out of foreign property purchases and unoccupied homes. It's totally possible to ALSO acknowledge that there's an undercurrent of racism in some of the resentment expressed in this thread.

Many men have affairs. Sure, they are douches. Funny thing is on this and other boards, people single out the birth country of the mayors GF. hmmmm

[esquire]

Originally Posted by rousseau

Since we're not in the business of buying and selling houses as investments, we can look on the entire process with equanimity, because most every other aspect of our situation is positive

Not to downplay what happened with the realtor, but there is such generally strong element of subjectivity (well, might as well just call it emotion) that goes into buying a home as opposed to an investment property. If the home fits the bill and you can live with the price, that seems OK to me. When I've shopped for a home I've always had a certain budget in mind, but the goal tends to be which house best meets our needs for that price point, as opposed to finding dollar for dollar the best value possible, although that's nice too.

I am also reminded that one friend of mine who got married and started a family in the mid-2000s when residential real estate values were booming on the prairies refused to pay what he deemed to be too much for a house... values kept on rising and eventually the market got to a point where he ended up buying a house around 2010 in what was definitely not his first pick of neighbourhoods for the same money that could have landed him a house in a prime area about 5 years earlier. He probably would have thanked his lucky stars had he met your slimy realtor in 2005... I guess this all goes to say that when it comes to residential real estate, it's complicated.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by esquire

I am also reminded that one friend of mine who got married and started a family in the mid-2000s when residential real estate values were booming on the prairies refused to pay what he deemed to be too much for a house... values kept on rising and eventually the market got to a point where he ended up buying a house around 2010 in what was definitely not his first pick of neighbourhoods for the same money that could have landed him a house in a prime area about 5 years earlier. He probably would have thanked his lucky stars had he met your slimy realtor in 2005...

Your friend did what he thought was best, since he had no crystal ball. He got unlucky... even though the decision made sense at the time.

Proof of that? Keep the dates but replace Winnipeg by Orlando and your friend would have thanked his lucky stars for the timing because he would have gotten about twice as much house for his money in 2010 than he would have in 2005.

[st7860]

Originally Posted by esquire

Not to downplay what happened with the realtor, but there is such generally strong element of subjectivity (well, might as well just call it emotion) that goes into buying a home as opposed to an investment property. If the home fits the bill and you can live with the price, that seems OK to me

Exactly its subjective. Canada and the USA are apples and oranges.

[lio45]

In Vancouver in 2015 I'd give esquire's friend's choice a much higher probability of being the correct bet (i.e. continuing to rent for the time being) than the other way around.

In Winnipeg in 2005, I have no idea what I'd have done, but obviously the right bet in retrospect was to buy.

[sunsetmountainland]

Originally Posted by lio45

In Vancouver in 2015 I'd give esquire's friend's choice a much higher probability of being the correct bet (i.e. continuing to rent for the time being) than the other way around.

In Winnipeg in 2005, I have no idea what I'd have done, but obviously the right bet in retrospect was to buy.

I on the other hand, I would tell him to buy! It will be like what happened to you in Winnipeg 2005. The point being is that the low interest rates will not last for ever! Also if you think that prices will go down when the interest rates go up I would tell your friend he is probably in for a surprise.

Things are looking pretty good in British Columbia even if things are not going to be so good in other parts of the country. We have a very diversified economy with trade in asia about 37% the U.S. 50.6%. Alberta is close to 90% export to the U.S. While Ontario is about 80% to the U.S.

Go ahead and hate the Chinese buyers but at least they are smart enough to buy and not rent!

http://bcbudget.gov.bc.ca/2015/highlights/2015_Highlights.pdf

http://www.conferenceboard.ca/press/news...rovinces_in_economic_growth_in_2015.aspx

[st7860]

Originally Posted by sunsetmountainland

I on the other hand, I would tell him to buy! It will be like what happened to you in Winnipeg 2005. The point being is that the low interest rates will not last for ever! Also if you think that prices will go down when the interest rates go up I would tell your friend he is probably in for a surprise.

Things are looking pretty good in British Columbia even if things are not going to be so good in other parts of the country. We have a very diversified economy with trade in asia about 37% the U.S. 50.6%. Alberta is close to 90% export to the U.S. While Ontario is about 80% to the U.S.

Go ahead and hate the Chinese buyers but at least they are smart enough to buy and not rent!

http://bcbudget.gov.bc.ca/2015/highlights/2015_Highlights.pdf

Exactly. Typically people who rent would say they are not paying their landlords taxes and mortgage.

http://www.vancitybuzz.com/2015/05/b-c-lead-canada-economic-growth-first-time-10-years/

"British Columbia is projected to lead Canada’s provinces in economic growth this year, marking the first time the westernmost province has topped the country in real GDP growth in a decade."

"When it comes to the provincial government’s finances, B.C. will be the only province to achieve a balanced budget this fiscal year. In February, the government announced a surplus of $879 million coupled with some spending increases to support new policies."

[sunsetmountainland]

Originally Posted by rousseau

We're happy in the house, so yeah, it wasn't just a bare bones financial investment. But the thing is, there was no bidding war on the place, we subsequently learned. There was no line-up of people anxious to view it. And the seller wildly overpriced the house. His family was leaving to go back to their home country. It was a perfect storm.

Stratford is small enough that the real estate agents pretty much know what's going on with every house that goes on the market, particularly if they're in the top half of the market.

Since we're not in the business of buying and selling houses as investments, we can look on the entire process with equanimity, because most every other aspect of our situation is positive

I would make it a priority to learn the market of the place you are going to buy a house. Not to be rude but the only person you can blame is yourself! Just like in life there are good and bad people there are also good and bad realtors. Buying a house is like any other investment. You need to take the time to research the market for yourself. Talk to people, go to the local police find out where are the bad areas of town. Talk to more than one agent make them work for your business.
You enjoy riding on a bike. I went to work and back on my bike for 15 years ten kilometers each way. You certainly did the do diligence to find the bike that would work for you.
Same with a house you need to get the right price the right product at the right time. The thing with a house is, it is a major investment while a bike is not.

Just my two cents

[lio45]

Originally Posted by st7860

When it comes to the provincial government’s finances, B.C. will be the only province to achieve a balanced budget this fiscal year.

http://montreal.ctvnews.ca/quebec-announces-balanced-budget-with-no-new-taxes-1.2299065

[lio45]

Originally Posted by sunsetmountainland

I would make it a priority to learn the market of the place you are going to buy a house.

Agreed and that was my advice too, but when you fall in love with a house (or a used car, or any item for which you're competing with other possible buyers) and want it badly, it comes at a price.

It's not merely an investment. It's also where you live (in rousseau's case). Better to have the house they wanted than to have a better deal that's not exactly what they wanted. Of course, for investment properties, it's the other way around.

[st7860]

The link you posted is dated in March, however the other link was dated 5 days ago.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by sunsetmountainland

I on the other hand, I would tell him to buy! It will be like what happened to you in Winnipeg 2005.

I am very very very skeptical of the idea that Vancouver in 2015 is where Winnipeg was in 2005 in terms of real estate.

Bookmark this thread, we'll revisit in ten years and see who was right

[sunsetmountainland]

Originally Posted by st7860

Exactly. Typically people who rent would say they are not paying their landlords taxes and mortgage.

http://www.vancitybuzz.com/2015/05/b-c-lead-canada-economic-growth-first-time-10-years/

"British Columbia is projected to lead Canada’s provinces in economic growth this year, marking the first time the westernmost province has topped the country in real GDP growth in a decade."

"When it comes to the provincial government’s finances, B.C. will be the only province to achieve a balanced budget this fiscal year. In February, the government announced a surplus of $879 million coupled with some spending increases to support new policies."

The thing is we have not even talked about the film industry booming here right now. Also all these projections are without LNG. What happens when or if they happen? People like What Next or Salt Spring Island guy are to be honest losers and whiners! They can not make it work because they are not smart enough or have not enough drive! They are what is called pessimistic people! Put your whining and loser attitude to work and be positive and perhaps you will like the results.

I certainly like my results. It is just like riding a bike if you fall off just get back up and ride again. Instead of oh this is too hard type rhetoric!

[lio45]

Originally Posted by st7860

The link you posted is dated in March, however the other link was dated 5 days ago.

Of course all the news articles about it will be from March; the (balanced) provincial budget for this year was tabled on Thursday March 26th. Right after that is when the media covered it. It's news that are now over 1 month old by now...

If a balanced provincial budget means Vancouver-style property prices, that's going to be good news for me, and then bye bye

[sunsetmountainland]

Originally Posted by lio45

I am very very very skeptical of the idea that Vancouver in 2015 is where Winnipeg was in 2005 in terms of real estate.

Bookmark this thread, we'll revisit in ten years and see who was right

I love this you do this all the time! Bookmark this thread! How about we bookmark our success? How will you do compared to how I will? It is like what I said about hard honest work combined with intelligence. I should have mentioned you with Salt Spring island guy and What next! Like I said they as well as you chose to lose!

[sunsetmountainland]

Originally Posted by lio45

Of course all the news articles about it will be from March; the (balanced) provincial budget for this year was tabled on Thursday March 26th. Right after that is when the media covered it. It's news that are now over 1.5 months old by now...

If a balanced provincial budget means Vancouver-style property prices, that's going to be good news for me, and then bye bye

Well at least there are news articles that have some valid statements as apposed to what your thoughts? What is that? Give some info to debate? Do some work?

[st7860]

Originally Posted by sunsetmountainland

The thing is we have not even talked about the film industry booming here right now. Also all these projections are without LNG. What happens when or if they happen? People like What Next or Salt Spring Island guy are to be honest losers and whiners! They can not make it work because they are not smart enough or have not enough drive! They are what is called pessimistic people! Put your whining and loser attitude to work and be positive and perhaps you will like the results.

I certainly like my results. It is just like riding a bike if you fall off just get back up and ride again. Instead of oh this is too hard type rhetoric!

Haters will hate. Plenty of things in Vancouver cost more than I can afford(such as penthouses or a 7 series german car)). I don't run around saying OMG! its too expensive. Hollywood North is what its known as yup. Also for people that are not of high means its not well known that in BC a person with a child and low income can get provincial assistance with his or her monthly rent(its not welfare and does not require renting social housing. Its a monthly payment towards housing costs.

Higher prices benefit the cities with property taxes keeping taxes low for everyone else.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by sunsetmountainland

How about we bookmark our success? How will you do compared to how I will?

I would be glad to compare our respective real estate portfolios but for very understandable reasons you don't really want to divulge too much to complete strangers online, and it's the same thing for me.

I don't have a sis living in Vancouver any more so I probably won't be in the area any time soon... but if you ever are out East nearby I wouldn't mind meeting you so we can discuss real estate. You were lucky with your timing in Nanaimo in the '90s. I will admit I was a bit lucky too. I had identified Sherbrooke (happens to be my hometown) as a place where downtown properties had a surprisingly good ROI in the early/mid 2000s compared to basically everywhere on this continent (the Americans were in their bubble then), and my bet was that the prices couldn't go anywhere but up... I did not expect them to actually double like they did in the downtown over the last decade. To be fair, I should get some credit (as I was pretty sure downtown Sherbrooke real estate was going to go up, and ended up being more than right; I was very over-leveraged then, so it was a bit of a gamble) but not the full credit for what actually happened.

Face it, there's a component of luck with real estate investing in any speculative/overheated market. It's not only hard work and "drive".

[sunsetmountainland]

Originally Posted by lio45

http://montreal.ctvnews.ca/quebec-announces-balanced-budget-with-no-new-taxes-1.2299065

I will state that is the first positive thing you have done so far! I think that is great. However, what happens if the Parti Québécois wants to leave Canada again? How will that be for your investments?