AUSTIN | ABIA Updates

[Austin1971]

A

[LoneStarMike]

Originally Posted by GoldenBoot

Oh, and before anyone goes crazy over the BA numbers...remember, they did not start flying until March 3, 2014 AND they were only flying 5x per week (through May 2014). From June 2014 to present time are the only complete months in which BA has executed daily flights.

So that 53% increase is pretty skewed. We'll need to wait until June to see a more true YOY number. However, I would't expect to see to much of a rise, if any. BA has not increase its frequency nor up-gauged its equipment. Furthermore, flights are averaging roughly 70%-80% full (depending on the time of year).

One thing you can look at and compare is load factor.

Post from last year:

Originally Posted by LoneStarMike

BA operated a total of 42 flights in March - 21 outbound & 21 inbound. Each plane holds 214 passengers. 214 seats times 42 total flights equals 8,988 total available seats. If BA carried 7170 passengers, that works out to an average load factor of 79.8% or about 170 passengers per flight.

For March 2014, BA operated a total of 62 flights with 13,268 available seats. If BA carried 10,993 passengers, that works out to an average load factor of 82.9% or about 177 passengers per flight. That works out to about 4.1% more passengers per flight for this March compared to last March.

Y-T-D BA has had 38,520 total available seats and has carried a total of 26,137 passengers which works out to a Y-T-D load factor of 67.9% or about 145 passengers per flight. Keep in mind that Jan. & Feb. are the two slowest months at ABIA.

[Digatisdi]

Originally Posted by DoubleC

Right, right. Did you also see the price of the flight? I believe it started at around $300 round trip? That sounds pretty pricy for a 1000 mile journey (although it's international), and I'm sure most people would consider just driving to San Antonio to find a cheaper flight.

I did not know about that. Honestly Aeromar coming to Austin was just so bizarre to me because it's a pretty small company and I vaguely remember it being marketed as an "Executive Airline" which is I always thought was silly because the vast majority people I know going to Mexico City are families—people looking for a good deal.

I mean the fact that the AUS-YYZ route is roughly twice the length of AUS-MEX and yet tickets generally can be found for less than $600 really speaks to how Aeromar was probably priced at a premium.

I would not be surprised if AeroMéxico reenters the AUS market with the possible Delta JV. I'm betting on AeroMéxico rather than Delta simply because of hub logistics.

[DoubleC]

Originally Posted by Digatisdi

I did not know about that. Honestly Aeromar coming to Austin was just so bizarre to me because it's a pretty small company and I vaguely remember it being marketed as an "Executive Airline" which is I always thought was silly because the vast majority people I know going to Mexico City are families—people looking for a good deal.

I mean the fact that the AUS-YYZ route is roughly twice the length of AUS-MEX and yet tickets generally can be found for less than $600 really speaks to how Aeromar was probably priced at a premium.

I would not be surprised if AeroMéxico reenters the AUS market with the possible Delta JV. I'm betting on AeroMéxico rather than Delta simply because of hub logistics.

I think at the minimum a seasonal route (Christmas) would work VERY well, if priced well enough. Can't tell you how many people travel from here to Mexico during that time of the year. Took the bus myself... the line of traffic at the border (on I35) made Austin traffic look like the middle of nowhere (about 12 hours waiting). That's by bus.

Also, whenever a route to a hub opens up, there's more reason to fly to that airport than wanting to travel to that city. We're talking about a major sky-team hub, and I'm sure people flying on Aeromar couldn't switch to an aeromexico plane to fly to say...Madrid? Buenos Aires? Not necessarily long-haul. The point is, lots of potential connecting flights are created through adding a hub destination.

The smallest plane they could use is a Delta Connect CRJ200 (seats 50 people). They wouldn't even have to fly it daily, and they could upgauge in the winter.

Hmm, imagine WestJet and VivaAerobus returning to Austin. You'd have cheap (frill-less) fares to Mexico and Canada.

[Digatisdi]

Originally Posted by DoubleC

Also, whenever a route to a hub opens up, there's more reason to fly to that airport than wanting to travel to that city. We're talking about a major sky-team hub, and I'm sure people flying on Aeromar couldn't switch to an aeromexico plane to fly to say...Madrid? Buenos Aires? Not necessarily long-haul. The point is, lots of potential connecting flights are created through adding a hub destination.

Exactly. I mentioned the value of hub connections in regards to KE earlier. MEX is a key transfer point to Central and South America which anecdotal evidence, including my own travel patterns suggest that many people (me included) would love to be able to go AUS-MEX-EZE, or BOG, GRU... Which by the way, Bogotá's airport is fantastic. It just makes more sense to me to not need to fly north to go to South America.

The smallest plane they could use is a Delta Connect CRJ200 (seats 50 people). They wouldn't even have to fly it daily, and they could upgauge in the winter.

I'm willing to bet it'd be a 5D (AM) ERJ, which is also a 50-seater stationed at MEX rather than a Delta CRJ because of the logistics of MEX being an AM hub whereas I'm not quite sure how Delta would be able to make that work as easily. I believe I've mentioned before I am not a fan of Delta, so my hoping for "anybody but Delta" might be clouding my better judgement.

[AUS]

WestJet flew to Austin?

[DoubleC]

@Digat: the erjs would work too. Austin doesnt see any CRJ2s anymore, not some the Memphis flight was cut. Meaning a CRJ200 arriving from MEX wouldn't have anywhere else to go.... Except maybe MEX again, but I wonder if delta would base some of its planes there.

I suppose delta and Aeromexico could allow their passengers to earn miles for either carrier when flying, much like most allies airlines.

Originally Posted by AUS

WestJet flew to Austin?

Pardon me, the "return" would be of VivaAerobus, and WestJet would simply start flying here for the first time (IF they came, which is unlikely). I only mentioned WJ since it's also a low-cost carrier like VA. Don't start any rumors .

[AUS]

Haha yea I never thought WestJet flew here. I don't think VivaAerobus will come back. I think it will be AeroMexico. Does anyone know yet about the BA plan for Austin?

[Jdawgboy]

Originally Posted by AUS

Does anyone know yet about the BA plan for Austin?

What plan?... You mean if they will be upgauging or not, or is there something else in the works I've missed?

[AUS]

Originally Posted by Jdawgboy

What plan?... You mean if they will be upgauging or not, or is there something else in the works I've missed?

Just The Upgauge plans. Some one on Airliners.net said they will know more concrete plans about a week or so ago but never shared anything lol. How about an A380 upgrade for F1 and SXSW?😉

[Austin1971]

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[DoubleC]

If the planes are only filling up 70-80%, why up-gauge to get a lower load factor? Remember what's his name mentioning that cargo doesn't drive PAX routes; it's just extra.

Originally Posted by Austin1971

TEMPORARY, PART-TIME Customer Service Agent (6 Positions)

https://www.austincityjobs.org/postings/48125

Ramping up customer service in Custom's Hall. Could this be a sign of more international service?

Nope, maybe 6 people were fired :p. I don't think they're ever too busy. The BA flight is probably their rush hour, but that's about it. Although I did see Southwest's cancun flight and the Speedbird at the gates simultaneously.

[Jdawgboy]

Says temporary positions anyways which doesn't seem to indicate there will be much if any increase in the amount of international travelers at least in the near term.

[Austin1971]

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[hookem]

Originally Posted by Austin1971

For what it's worth concerning the KE flight. What I heard today is that KE is still negotiating for a 3x weekly flight. Their plan is to reduce the IAH daily flight to 4x weekly and use that equipment to serve AUS the other 3 days of the week.

Hmm, seems like someone mentioned that idea before and was laughed at...

[Jdawgboy]

That's pretty interesting. I wonder if the Houston route is not getting the loads they were expecting. With a 7 day schedule, that would almost be like splitting half and half other than the extra day to Houston.

[Digatisdi]

I wouldn't be surprised if with the KE flight, United and ANA lowered prices connecting to ICN through Tokyo making it more attractive to connect, that and IAH is a major Star Alliance hub, so people might have been connecting through IAH on Star Alliance flights to Tokyo and then Seoul. I think that's one major advantage of KE entering Austin, we have no other nonstop routes to Asia which would give them an edge.

[Jdawgboy]

Originally Posted by Digatisdi

I wouldn't be surprised if with the KE flight, United and ANA lowered prices connecting to ICN through Tokyo making it more attractive to connect, that and IAH is a major Star Alliance hub, so people might have been connecting through IAH on Star Alliance flights to Tokyo and then Seoul. I think that's one major advantage of KE entering Austin, we have no other nonstop routes to Asia which would give them an edge.

You have a good point. If there are talks going on then it's likely they are still hammering out the details with the port which might explain why nothing happened in April.

Of course this is still all speculation....

It seems to me that airline route announcements tend to come out around mid to late summer and they typically happen in groups at least from what I've been noticing over the past couple of years. There have also been some May announcements if I remember correctly. It's possible that they might announce in September like BA did for a 2016 service start. Either way I wouldn't be suprised if we hear of more route announcements from other airlines regardless.

[Digatisdi]

I agree. I wouldn't be surprised if final preparations for the announcement take all summer.

Also, the Branson Air Express flight starts up tomorrow. I'm... Interested in seeing how it'll do.

Texas Sky seems to be doing pretty well, of course I believe Victoria is covered by EAS so that can't hurt.

[Austin1971]

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