Calgary Condo Talk - Page 38

Electrical Storm · #**741** Posted **Apr 26, 2015, 8:49 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sands

Does this inventory level include new built or project still under construction? Seems only secondary market. And does Core include Beltline?

Not sure what the boundary limits would be for 'Centre' - but I would assume that this category is primarily the Beltline along with smaller adjacent communities (Lower Mount Royal et al.) as they dont use the term 'Core' but rather 'Centre'.

Surrealplaces · #**742** Posted **Apr 27, 2015, 2:50 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sands

Does this inventory level include new built or project still under construction? Seems only secondary market. And does Core include Beltline?

Yes, it would include the Beltline. I don't believe it includes units u/c, as those number are 'standing inventory', and I'm not sure what 'standing inventory' means exactly....I'm guessing it means new condos that are built but empty? Total condos available for sale would be higher than what is on the graph.

jmb · #**743** Posted **Apr 27, 2015, 8:55 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Surrealplaces

Yes, it would include the Beltline. I don't believe it includes units u/c, as those number are 'standing inventory', and I'm not sure what 'standing inventory' means exactly....I'm guessing it means new condos that are built but empty? Total condos available for sale would be higher than what is on the graph.

Yes, standing inventory is completed units still owned by the developer (not purchased). Usually mostly consisting of the ugly duckling units

suburbia · #**744** Posted **Apr 27, 2015, 11:31 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sands

Does this inventory level include new built or project still under construction? Seems only secondary market. And does Core include Beltline?

good questions, as this doesn't explain the 2,700 unit number mentioned in the article and various subsequent news reports. This chart shows city-wide only ~175 available. Odd.

It is interesting, however, that the core in this chart now represents more than half of all vacancies in the city, whereas back in 2004 it was perhaps a quarter.

[EDIT]

Some data from CREB's March update - apartment data is on pages 14 & 15
http://www.creb.com/~/media/Public/Statistics_Package/2015/March_2015.pdf

March 2014 CREB apartment listings were 783 with sales of 452 units (1.7 inventory per 1 sold in that month)
March 2015 CREB apartment listings were 1,419 with sales of 303 units (4.7 inventory per 1 sold in that month)

Looks like till now, prices are holding, but only as a result of people hanging on and not selling. This is amazing, in context of the glut of 2,700 new unsold units that the other report was talking about.

As an aside, all of this does put into question the non-referenced chart someone had posted, which suggested sales inventory of condos was less than 200. All will recall that the chart, posted without reference, was in response to the report of a 2,700 unit glut coming on-line.

Surrealplaces · #**745** Posted **Apr 28, 2015, 6:27 PM**

The chart is only standing inventory, but at least shows comparisons for different regions of the city. It was posted in response to the notion that the core was experiencing an 'epic glut'.
Looking at the chart we see that the standing inventory for the core has been steady for the past year now. It's almost where it was at Q1 2014, whereas the trend for standing inventories in the other regions...particularly the north is rising rapidly.

Quote:

Originally Posted by suburbia

good questions, as this doesn't explain the 2,700 unit number mentioned in the article and various subsequent news reports. This chart shows city-wide only ~175 available. Odd.

It is interesting, however, that the core in this chart now represents more than half of all vacancies in the city, whereas back in 2004 it was perhaps a quarter.

Surrealplaces · #**746** Posted **Apr 28, 2015, 6:32 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by suburbia

[EDIT]

Some data from CREB's March update - apartment data is on pages 14 & 15
http://www.creb.com/~/media/Public/Statistics_Package/2015/March_2015.pdf

March 2014 CREB apartment listings were 783 with sales of 452 units (1.7 inventory per 1 sold in that month)
March 2015 CREB apartment listings were 1,419 with sales of 303 units (4.7 inventory per 1 sold in that month)

Looks like till now, prices are holding, but only as a result of people hanging on and not selling. This is amazing, in context of the glut of 2,700 new unsold units that the other report was talking about.

As an aside, all of this does put into question the non-referenced chart someone had posted, which suggested sales inventory of condos was less than 200. All will recall that the chart, posted without reference, was in response to the report of a 2,700 unit glut coming on-line.

In regards to this huge condo glut that is either here, or is coming.....

This is the chart from the CREB report Page 14-15. You can see that the graph over the years, and right up to now, the tends on the chart is much the same for Single family homes as it is for condos. If there is an epic glut that's already here, than it's also the same for SFHs too.

More importantly, here are the numbers for 2015. You can see that the trend for both condos and SFHs are following pretty much the same trajectory.

Condos..........Jan..Feb.Mar
Sales............154 216 303
New Listings...745 593 671
Inventory......1,147 1,308 1,419

SFH...............Jan..Feb.Mar
Sales.............534 740 1,082
New Listings...1,836 1,673 1,776
Inventory.......2,382 2,863 3,016

suburbia · #**747** Posted **Apr 28, 2015, 6:52 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Surrealplaces

In regards to this huge condo glut that is either here, or is coming.....

This is the chart from the CREB report Page 14-15. You can see that the graph over the years, and right up to now, the tends on the chart is much the same for Single family homes as it is for condos. If there is an epic glut that's already here, than it's also the same for SFHs too.

More importantly, here are the numbers for 2015. You can see that the trend for both condos and SFHs are following pretty much the same trajectory.

Condos..........Jan..Feb.Mar
Sales............154 216 303
New Listings...745 593 671
Inventory......1,147 1,308 1,419

SFH...............Jan..Feb.Mar
Sales.............534 740 1,082
New Listings...1,836 1,673 1,776
Inventory.......2,382 2,863 3,016

You may have missed the original information. It was talking about the glut of new condos, and was showing increases in the 50 - 60% level. Instead of speaking about this, people's responses are trying to pull the convo into a red herring. Additionally, we should really focus on the topic of this thread IE condos.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/condo-sales-in-calgary-drop-to-2010-levels-1.3047707

Quote:

Calgary's new condominium market has slumped to sales numbers not seen since 2010, a new report says.

In the first quarter of 2015, sales totals were down 61 per cent compared to the first quarter of last year, the Altus Group market update says.

And so far this year sales are 53 per cent lower than the average over the past five years.

Quote:

"Sales launch activity is substantially weaker than the past few years with investors having effectively exited the market for the time being," the report says.

The available inventory of new condominium supplies is up to over 2,700 units, the highest level since 2008.

There are two excellent charts here, particularly the first one:
http://www.altusgroup.com/media/228971/Calgary-Q1-2015-New-Condo-Market-Update.pdf

Spring2008 · #**748** Posted **Apr 28, 2015, 7:53 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Surrealplaces

Nobody could have guessed the 'epic level of truly massive condo inventory glut' because it sits at less than 100 units for the whole core.The recent changes in inventory have been mostly outside of the core. You'll notice that since Q2 2014 the inventory for downtown hasn't changed much and has been steady, but in other parts of the city the inventory is rising.

Doesn't look too bad to me.

Surrealplaces · #**749** Posted **Apr 28, 2015, 8:03 PM**

Agreed about keeping this thread about condos, no need to compare to single family homes, I only pointed that out as a way of showing that if there is indeed a massive glut of condos, then there is also massive glut for all real estate in general, as SHFs have been following the same patterns as condos for the last 5 years, and still are.

Those numbers I posted were also to show that there may be a slowdown in condo sales, but not an 'epic level of the truly massive condo inventory glut' as had been mentioned.

I guess it depends on what you define as an 'epic level of the truly massive condo inventory glut', but that 50-60% drop is only in comparison to a specific point in the past. I'm sure you already know this, but stats about housing starts and sales, etc.. are always a moving target becuase are always in relation to a variable point in the past. If you look at the last three months, for example the trend is the opposite. The news headline could easily read Condo sales have doubled in the last three months or condo listings are down 30%

Quote:

Originally Posted by suburbia

You may have missed the original information. It was talking about the glut of new condos, and was showing increases in the 50 - 60% level. Instead of speaking about this, people's responses are trying to pull the convo into a red herring. Additionally, we should really focus on the topic of this thread IE condos.

Spring2008 · #**750** Posted **Apr 28, 2015, 8:07 PM**

Noticed these two graphs. Cgy new condo sales are forecasted to fall to 2011 levels (which isn't that bad relatively speaking), and the # of new condo sales in the centre have been trending at approx. 4 times higher than edm over the last decade. Prob still far behind Van & TO on a per capita basis even though, but I could be wrong. Would like to see that number continue to rise over the long run.

http://www.altusgroup.com/media/222839/Calgary-2015-Multi-Family-Outlook.pdf

http://www.altusgroup.com/media/222537/Edmonton-2015-Multi-Family-Outlook.pdf

edit looks like they put an edm photo on the cgy report - my eyes!!

Surrealplaces · #**751** Posted **Apr 28, 2015, 8:18 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spring2008

Doesn't look too bad to me.

Far and away better than 2009-2011.

suburbia · #**752** Posted **Apr 28, 2015, 10:17 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Surrealplaces

The news headline could easily read Condo sales have doubled in the last three months or condo listings are down 30%

That would have been disingenuous because January is always an extremely slow month - check any year you want - and that's why a year over year review is required. Comparing the same month over a number of years or the same quarter over a number of years.

Anyway - the 2,700 units, like I had mentioned, was not about sales on MLS that have already taken place, but rather, new units that will be coming on-line.

Spring2008 · #**753** Posted **Apr 30, 2015, 9:24 PM**

Scollen House in Mission launches next week. Not bad. Start at $220's so def more affordable. Just east of the main strip on 25th av.

http://scollenhouse.com/mission/

rooftop patio?

Sands · #**754** Posted **May 1, 2015, 3:30 PM**

http://calgaryherald.com/business/real-e...line-for-fifth-straight-month-in-calgary

April Real Estate Data is out. I see mkt is stabilizing.

The Urbanist · #**755** Posted **May 1, 2015, 3:52 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spring2008

Scollen House in Mission launches next week. Not bad. Start at $220's so def more affordable. Just east of the main strip on 25th av.

http://scollenhouse.com/mission/

rooftop patio?

Thanks for the post. I've been eagerly awaiting this proposal. The plans are pretty good for the most part and I love the roof top amenity. The only problem I foresee is the shadowing from the surrounding buildings. Great to see there is still a lot of confidence in the market.

Riise · #**756** Posted **May 1, 2015, 3:56 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spring2008

Scollen House in Mission launches next week.

Solid design and a respectable name, I like.

CalgaryAlex · #**757** Posted **May 1, 2015, 4:17 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spring2008

Scollen House in Mission launches next week. Not bad. Start at $220's so def more affordable. Just east of the main strip on 25th av.

I walk past this site a few times per week. Definitely an upgrade in both density and attractiveness from the houses that were previously there.

I love the design; will be fun to watch this one go up!

Surrealplaces · #**758** Posted **May 1, 2015, 7:48 PM**

Scollen House. Perfect scale of development for that location, and a good addition to Mission. Also reasonable starting prices.

Spring2008 · #**759** Posted **Jun 25, 2015, 6:42 PM**

Another condo project just south of 17th ave, should help that eastern stretch. They're almost done setting up a sales centre on 17th and 1st SW.

https://www.facebook.com/249526358442203...58442203/899885173406315/?type=1&theater

DizzyEdge · #**760** Posted **Jun 25, 2015, 8:08 PM**

Do you know where exactly?