Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting

[Stryker]

http://money.cnn.com/2014/02/20/news/economy/china-art-laundering/index.html?iid=EL

Here's some more.

[Stryker]

http://money.cnn.com/2014/02/09/news/economy/china-tax/index.html?iid=EL


http://money.cnn.com/2013/05/09/news/economy/china-wealth/index.html?iid=EL

Do I need to keep going?

[matthew6]

You can do whatever you like.

I asked for proof that the Vancouver housing market is being driven by Chinese who have made their wealth through corruption. I want specific evidence.

If you want to post articles about how 150 corrupt officials have fled to America then be my guest.

[Stryker]

Originally Posted by matthew6

You can do whatever you like.

I asked for proof that the Vancouver housing market is being driven by Chinese who have made their wealth through corruption. I want specific evidence.

If you want to post articles about how 150 corrupt officials have fled to America then be my guest.

When I get that specific details on record, I'll be sure to sell this info to the PRC, ain't gonna be given away that kind of info for free.

Like seriously do you not understand how hard this stuff is to track directly.

Asking for proof of an action when the entire value of the exercise is that it cannot be proven is a bit much.

Next your gonna be asking for proof most of pro sports is on steriods.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Stryker

Like seriously do you not understand how hard this stuff is to track directly.

I bet it is hard to track, but assuming this is a real issue, what can really be done about it? Maybe there are money laundering regulations that would catch criminals while letting other people purchase property.

There's an article about this general topic here: http://www.biv.com/article/2015/4/property-sales-spike-sparks-money-laundering-fears/

Either way I think that affordability is basically a separate issue, and it does seem linked to foreign buyers. Canada has not done a good job of regulating foreign real estate investment such that we can capitalize on the in-flow while still keeping housing affordable. Some other countries have rules around living in or using the property you own, and require that foreign buyers sell if they move outside the country. I don't think that is unreasonable; local residents contribute to the economy in a way that absentee owners of unused properties do not.

[Stryker]

Originally Posted by someone123

I bet it is hard to track, but assuming this is a real issue, what can really be done about it? Maybe there are money laundering regulations that would catch criminals while letting other people purchase property.

There's an article about this general topic here: http://www.biv.com/article/2015/4/property-sales-spike-sparks-money-laundering-fears/

Either way I think that affordability is basically a separate issue, and it does seem linked to foreign buyers. Canada has not done a good job of regulating foreign real estate investment such that we can capitalize on the in-flow while still keeping housing affordable. Some other countries have rules around living in or using the property you own, and require that foreign buyers sell if they move outside the country. I don't think that is unreasonable; local residents contribute to the economy in a way that absentee owners of unused properties do not.

Lots could be done I'm sure, however I don't really care to know.

I'm about pointing out the obvious.

Vancouver is a bubble, being pushed by PRC money.

If I were moving to BC, it'd be victoria as that's where my girlfriend is from.

So my interest in rain forest weather is limited, or VAN itself.

[osmo]

Originally Posted by Stryker

When I get that specific details on record, I'll be sure to sell this info to the PRC, ain't gonna be given away that kind of info for free.

Like seriously do you not understand how hard this stuff is to track directly.

Asking for proof of an action when the entire value of the exercise is that it cannot be proven is a bit much.

Next your gonna be asking for proof most of pro sports is on steriods.

It isn't hard at all. All the RE Boards in Canada have this data but don't release it publicly. Victoria's RE Board did release some data from a survey done and foreign ownership was only near 11% which mirrors national averages that have been able to be pieced together over the years of the boom.

Your only seeing significant numbers of foreign buyers in the top high end levels but for the regular market it still majority Canadian driven. The race bait myth of the Red Chinese attacking Canadian home ownership like a evading army is pure fluff created by the RE industry, especially in the lower mainland. You can find more stories of RE agents lying or making fake news versus any hard data to support this supposed rush of Chinese cash that is moving the market, which it isn't.

All this will ring true when Canada eventually has to raise rates. People with large sums of cash looking to dump it in here will not care if rates rise. People who are trying to get by of debt and loans will. If indeed the market is hot money fueled from oversees the market will march on with a rate hike...

[st7860]

Originally Posted by matthew6

You can do whatever you like.

I asked for proof that the Vancouver housing market is being driven by Chinese who have made their wealth through corruption. I want specific evidence.

If you want to post articles about how 150 corrupt officials have fled to America then be my guest.

Its common to say HOLY <bleep> the guy has a million dollars he must be corrupt. Usually though, in Canada, people need evidence before convicting someone.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by osmo

Victoria's RE Board did release some data from a survey done and foreign ownership was only near 11% which mirrors national averages that have been able to be pieced together over the years of the boom.

Your only seeing significant numbers of foreign buyers in the top high end levels but for the regular market it still majority Canadian driven. The race bait myth of the Red Chinese attacking Canadian home ownership like a evading army is pure fluff created by the RE industry, especially in the lower mainland. You can find more stories of RE agents lying or making fake news versus any hard data to support this supposed rush of Chinese cash that is moving the market, which it isn't.

Huh? Why would real estate agents invent a negative story about where their money comes from?

It also seems dubious that the 11% rate in Victoria proves anything about Vancouver. Victoria is around 11% visible minority and the city over Vancouver is over 50%. Most of these people come from abroad. Presumably, Vancouver has a much higher rate of immigration and international travel. Why wouldn't it also have a higher rate of foreign investment and property ownership?

It is impossible for me to say what the percentages are in Vancouver because I do not have access to the data, but I think that information should be public and the real estate industry should be more transparent. Those who are concerned about unfounded discrimination against foreign buyers should want this too.

[osmo]

Originally Posted by someone123

Huh? Why would real estate agents invent a negative story about where their money comes from?

It also seems dubious that the 11% rate in Victoria proves anything about Vancouver. Victoria is around 11% visible minority and the city over Vancouver is over 50%. Most of these people come from abroad. Presumably, Vancouver has a much higher rate of immigration and international travel. Why wouldn't it also have a higher rate of foreign investment and property ownership?

It is impossible for me to say what the percentages are in Vancouver because I do not have access to the data, but I think that information should be public and the real estate industry should be more transparent. Those who are concerned about unfounded discrimination against foreign buyers should want this too.

No it is just the Victoria RE Board was willing to let those numbers out, and I actually made a mistake as quoted the wrong number. The number for Victoria is only 3% for Foreign ownership. 2011 numbers for Vancouver were 6% foreign.

2014 for numbers from a CMHC on a survey study on foreign ownership:
Toronto 2.4%.
Vancouver 2.3%.
Victoria 1.1%
Montreal 1.5%.

It is actually Toronto that has the highest percentage of foreign ownership, if you just strictly look at condos, just condos.. and its ... 2.4% (CMHC, 2014). Vancouver had the highest overall numbers if you just looked at the city proper and not the over all metro. If you just look at the City of Vancouver it comes in at 5.8%.

That is sure a whole lot of Mainland Chinese, you can almost hear them roaring down from the Airport with bags of money to steal homes from Canadians..


Also, let us not forget. Toronto is 60% visible minorities, the majority are Canadian, and only 14% do not hold citizenship. I can promise you most of these citizens are looking at Toronto Community Housing versus Condos on the lake shore. Which is why beaming Condo havens such as Scarborough have the highest ratio of non-citizens to elsewhere in the city. This is all Toronto of course, because it is what I know, but I can imagine it mirrors B.C.

RE Boards pump up the hot Asian money myth as it gets Canadians mad and into racist hyperbole and in stampedes to buy homes, it also just piggy backs off the fact that the Chinese culturally like to shop and spend money (..a lot..). But that is easy when you are in the top income bracket in Canada from filling our Universities in top fields such as Medicine and Engineering, they by larger margins work hard for it. It also easy to do when culturally you stay at home longer to save money, and with your parents helping you out with a fat wad of savings to buy that first home.

Its all just racism and — hurt envy. IMO. To me I could not care less. I think its toxic to buy a home in most places in Canada right now, if people want to line up to do so I couldn't care less. Does not matter if its some Scottish-Candain guy with a family that goes back 5 generations, or some 24 year old Chinese kid who was born in Burnaby to a Chinese immigrant. All are equally as Canadian and equally as dumb for jumping into the RE market right now.

Again, people act like Vancouver is some Chinese oasis, there are large numbers in Calgary and the GTA also. If the Mainland Chinese were simply up for stashing away money in any nook of Canadian RE why would they not scamper for better deals in other Canadian cities with significant Asian roots also. Why isn't Toronto seeing the rush with HAM money? Why isn't Markham and Richmond Hill seeing the same craziness with Chinese money and RE? Markham has a higher percentage of Asians then Vancouver and only trails Richmond B.C. for the highest ratio of Chinese to other residents in Canadian city, so why isn't Markham sitting with the same lopsided market as Vancouver?

These are all logical questions to ask and all are easily answered if you stop believe the made up myth of mythical dragons from China here to ruin Canadian RE. This is a made in Canada mess with Canadian themselves carrying to much debt for them to handle. Period.

[kwoldtimer]

Meridien credit union is offering an 18 month fixed term mortgage at 1.49%, in Ontario only. 18 month fixed?! 1.49%?!

[st7860]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Meridien credit union is offering an 18 month fixed term mortgage at 1.49%, in Ontario only. 18 month fixed?! 1.49%?!

http://www.meridiancu.ca/Pages/welcome.aspx

[Xelebes]

Originally Posted by osmo

No it is just the Victoria RE Board was willing to let those numbers out, and I actually made a mistake as quoted the wrong number. The number for Victoria is only 3% for Foreign ownership. 2011 numbers for Vancouver were 6% foreign.

2014 for numbers from a CMHC on a survey study on foreign ownership:
Toronto 2.4%.
Vancouver 2.3%.
Victoria 1.1%
Montreal 1.5%.

I shall badger Dylan for a like button.

[Stryker]

Originally Posted by osmo

RE Boards pump up the hot Asian money myth as it gets Canadians mad and into racist hyperbole and in stampedes to buy homes, it also just piggy backs off the fact that the Chinese culturally like to shop and spend money (..a lot..).

Yawn
Again, people act like Vancouver is some Chinese oasis, there are large numbers in Calgary and the GTA also. If the Mainland Chinese were simply up for stashing away money in any nook of Canadian RE why would they not scamper for better deals in other Canadian cities with significant Asian roots also. Why isn't Toronto seeing the rush with HAM money? Why isn't Markham and Richmond Hill seeing the same craziness with Chinese money and RE? Markham has a higher percentage of Asians then Vancouver and only trails Richmond B.C. for the highest ratio of Chinese to other residents in Canadian city, so why isn't Markham sitting with the same lopsided market as Vancouver?

Yeah interesting question why isn't toronto effected by this and why aren't people in toronto complaining.

I couldn't imagine any possible reason for this.

Lol like are you even thinking about your saying.

Maybe because Toronto isn't the type of market for this form of money laundering, more importantly in a province where there is space to grow it's much harder for a small number of people to adversely effect the market.

Canada isn't the only country effected by this, and were talking about a massive portion of this planets gdp that is being shuffled across the globe.

Vancouver is simply an obvious victim for a certain type of activity.

[vanman]

Great post osmo! It would be nice if we could get past the fear mongering and hyperbole and dive into the real reasons why Canada's housing market is so out of control: Canadian citizens are taking on way too much debt.

[Stryker]

Originally Posted by vanman

Great post osmo! It would be nice if we could get past the fear mongering and hyperbole and dive into the real reasons why Canada's housing market is so out of control: Canadian citizens are taking on way too much debt.

I don't think anyone here is sugguesting that it's limited to PRC money.

It's just a problem that may exacerbate a crash.

Meh it's no different than the US 10 years ago.

We have this arrogance that we have no subprime issue, than completely ignore the fact that we had much longer for a bubble to develop with an economy that at best is 2nd class.

[casper]

Originally Posted by osmo

It isn't hard at all. All the RE Boards in Canada have this data but don't release it publicly. Victoria's RE Board did release some data from a survey done and foreign ownership was only near 11% which mirrors national averages that have been able to be pieced together over the years of the boom.

Your only seeing significant numbers of foreign buyers in the top high end levels but for the regular market it still majority Canadian driven. The race bait myth of the Red Chinese attacking Canadian home ownership like a evading army is pure fluff created by the RE industry, especially in the lower mainland. You can find more stories of RE agents lying or making fake news versus any hard data to support this supposed rush of Chinese cash that is moving the market, which it isn't.

All this will ring true when Canada eventually has to raise rates. People with large sums of cash looking to dump it in here will not care if rates rise. People who are trying to get by of debt and loans will. If indeed the market is hot money fueled from oversees the market will march on with a rate hike...

The real estate board data is pointless. I will give you an example, I moved from Saskatchewan back to BC and purchased in Victoria.

All the paper work my agent filed showed by address as Saskatchewan, since that was the address I lived at when I purchased the home (even though I had already sold my Saskatchewan residence and was in the process of moving out).

My Saskatchewan lawyer handled the sale of my old house, transferred the money form his trust account to my Victoria lawyer trust account who transferred it to the sellers lawyer trust account.

The real estate board paper work has no way of differentiating between someone moving to BC from outside the province and an outside investor parking money in BC.

For these type of transaction most transactions are done using lawyer trust accounts that are pretty opaque at the best of time.

.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Stryker

I don't think anyone here is sugguesting that it's limited to PRC money.

It's just a problem that may exacerbate a crash.

Meh it's no different than the US 10 years ago.

We have this arrogance that we have no subprime issue, than completely ignore the fact that we had much longer for a bubble to develop with an economy that at best is 2nd class.

The difference with the US is the property was sold to people who had no money and can not pay there mortgages.

A foreign investor looking at Canada is probably buying because it is a good price. You should be more concerned about locals who are over extended.

[vanman]

Originally Posted by Stryker

I don't think anyone here is sugguesting that it's limited to PRC money.

It's just a problem that may exacerbate a crash.

Meh it's no different than the US 10 years ago.

We have this arrogance that we have no subprime issue, than completely ignore the fact that we had much longer for a bubble to develop with an economy that at best is 2nd class.

I wouldn't call the Canadian economy 2nd class at all. Going by GDP we produce slightly more per capita than the US.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by osmo

No it is just the Victoria RE Board was willing to let those numbers out, and I actually made a mistake as quoted the wrong number. The number for Victoria is only 3% for Foreign ownership. 2011 numbers for Vancouver were 6% foreign.

2014 for numbers from a CMHC on a survey study on foreign ownership:
Toronto 2.4%.
Vancouver 2.3%.
Victoria 1.1%
Montreal 1.5%.

It is actually Toronto that has the highest percentage of foreign ownership, if you just strictly look at condos, just condos.. and its ... 2.4% (CMHC, 2014). Vancouver had the highest overall numbers if you just looked at the city proper and not the over all metro. If you just look at the City of Vancouver it comes in at 5.8%.

That is sure a whole lot of Mainland Chinese, you can almost hear them roaring down from the Airport with bags of money to steal homes from Canadians..


Also, let us not forget. Toronto is 60% visible minorities, the majority are Canadian, and only 14% do not hold citizenship. I can promise you most of these citizens are looking at Toronto Community Housing versus Condos on the lake shore. Which is why beaming Condo havens such as Scarborough have the highest ratio of non-citizens to elsewhere in the city. This is all Toronto of course, because it is what I know, but I can imagine it mirrors B.C.

RE Boards pump up the hot Asian money myth as it gets Canadians mad and into racist hyperbole and in stampedes to buy homes, it also just piggy backs off the fact that the Chinese culturally like to shop and spend money (..a lot..). But that is easy when you are in the top income bracket in Canada from filling our Universities in top fields such as Medicine and Engineering, they by larger margins work hard for it. It also easy to do when culturally you stay at home longer to save money, and with your parents helping you out with a fat wad of savings to buy that first home.

Its all just racism and — hurt envy. IMO. To me I could not care less. I think its toxic to buy a home in most places in Canada right now, if people want to line up to do so I couldn't care less. Does not matter if its some Scottish-Candain guy with a family that goes back 5 generations, or some 24 year old Chinese kid who was born in Burnaby to a Chinese immigrant. All are equally as Canadian and equally as dumb for jumping into the RE market right now.

Again, people act like Vancouver is some Chinese oasis, there are large numbers in Calgary and the GTA also. If the Mainland Chinese were simply up for stashing away money in any nook of Canadian RE why would they not scamper for better deals in other Canadian cities with significant Asian roots also. Why isn't Toronto seeing the rush with HAM money? Why isn't Markham and Richmond Hill seeing the same craziness with Chinese money and RE? Markham has a higher percentage of Asians then Vancouver and only trails Richmond B.C. for the highest ratio of Chinese to other residents in Canadian city, so why isn't Markham sitting with the same lopsided market as Vancouver?

These are all logical questions to ask and all are easily answered if you stop believe the made up myth of mythical dragons from China here to ruin Canadian RE. This is a made in Canada mess with Canadian themselves carrying to much debt for them to handle. Period.

LOL, it's an open secret to everyone in the know that those CMHC numbers aren't worth the paper they're printed on. There is no rigorous methodology behind them. Got a cousin in Canada, hey stay with him and use his address.