DENVER | Main Development Thread #6

[bcp]

Originally Posted by PLANSIT

What are your thoughts on this? Are you thinking that our population increases will start to taper off, as we become less affordable? Companies will start looking elsewhere (already have) for more affordable places for their employees and the market will correct? Just curious on other's thoughts.

nothing gloom and doom...however, there are a few things that should help this housing market cool off (much needed)

- yes, population growth will taper a bit along with job creation (unless we really become a tech focus)
- energy exploration cool off
- stock market correction (10-20%)
- for-sale supply increase at TOD and via DLL improvements
- 20 year low in homeownership rates

put them all together, and denver should become "normal-ish" again for housing costs and appreciation as these all adjust toward their historical trends...


overall, Denver is in good shape, but housing costs (as a percent of income) just won't go back to where it was 20 years ago. think of it as denver growing up from a cosmopolitan perspective, but we won't outpace our coastal peers.

[Stonemans_rowJ]

Originally Posted by bcp

nothing gloom and doom...however, there are a few things that should help this housing market cool off (much needed)

- yes, population growth will taper a bit along with job creation (unless we really become a tech focus)
- energy exploration cool off
- stock market correction (10-20%)
- for-sale supply increase at TOD and via DLL improvements
- 20 year low in homeownership rates

put them all together, and denver should become "normal-ish" again for housing costs and appreciation as these all adjust toward their historical trends...


overall, Denver is in good shape, but housing costs (as a percent of income) just won't go back to where it was 20 years ago. think of it as denver growing up from a cosmopolitan perspective, but we won't outpace our coastal peers.

Exactly. And mortgage interest rates.

[TakeFive]

Very interesting... Within Denver a $175 million retail and entertainment development - even if not in Denver. See HERE.

Originally Posted by bcp

nothing gloom and doom...however, there are a few things that should help this housing market cool off (much needed)

- stock market correction (10-20%)

put them all together, and denver should become "normal-ish" again for housing costs and appreciation as these all adjust toward their historical trends...

A 10-20% correction seems long overdue. Yet small caps, especially tech and bio-tech stocks, corrected dramatically last year and more recently energy related stocks have dramatically corrected. So while the overall market has not corrected there have been rolling corrections within the market. Hard to say... and yet the T-Bill rates have trended ever downward. We are obviously a safe haven favorite among global investors it would seem. Hard to say, hard to say.

[bcp]

Originally Posted by Stonemans_rowJ

Exactly. And mortgage interest rates.

I'm not sure on this one - even if interest rates were to double, they are still historically quite low and 7.5% wouldn't be the end of the world.

I believe we are positioned for a lifetime of relatively low interest rates - this has been reaffirmed by each president, treasury secretary and fed chairman for the last 30 years. They talk about increases...but we're talking 1/4 point moves on the upside...and those are incremental / absorb-able. there have been very few real changes to policy.

Risk is barely priced in with mortgages (see private lending for actual risk-driven rates...) as they are still predominantly subsidized by taxpayers.

[BeerAndLoathing]

I've been wondering if there have been any in-depth studies about the effect that self-driving cars will have on suburban growth and mass transit.
It sounds like there are multiple companies planning on making self-driving cars available within the next 5 to 10 years. If these cars work well and are affordable then I would imagine they will compete with some of the benefits that mass transit brings to commuters.

Are any cities including this in their 20-year plans, or is this just too new of a concept at this point?

[Denver Dweller]

http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/blog/r...bqOBYu5F%2FO7W7Amf&t=1428374728&page=all

[rds70]

UNIQLO heading to the Pavilions:

http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_27...-uniqlo-coming-denver-pavilions-downtown

The article states that the store will be 22,000 square feet, which is interesting since that might mean they are taking over the Lucky Strike or Barnes and Noble space. Those are the only spaces of that size.

[comoneymaker]

Originally Posted by Denver Dweller

http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/blog/r...bqOBYu5F%2FO7W7Amf&t=1428374728&page=all

This project has been on going for like 6 years now. Something may happen at this site but wont be what they have planned. First off $175 mill is not enough to get done what they want. A huge chunk will be used up just to buy out the Stay Bridge Hotel that just renovated last year.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by rds70

UNIQLO heading to the Pavilions:

http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_27...-uniqlo-coming-denver-pavilions-downtown

The article states that the store will be 22,000 square feet, which is interesting since that might mean they are taking over the Lucky Strike or Barnes and Noble space. Those are the only spaces of that size.

I couldn't see the Lucky Strike space being used as it's on the 3rd floor. You would assume that a retail store like this would like a ground-level presence which would point more to the Barnes and Noble site. Another possibility would be the Hard Rock Cafe space and taking a couple of the spaces adjacent to it. That would provide the best street presence for UNIQLO.

[mishko27]

Originally Posted by rds70

UNIQLO heading to the Pavilions:

http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_27...-uniqlo-coming-denver-pavilions-downtown

The article states that the store will be 22,000 square feet, which is interesting since that might mean they are taking over the Lucky Strike or Barnes and Noble space. Those are the only spaces of that size.

This is really good for the retail market here - we were not in the first expansion wave, but we're part of the second one - ahead of Chicago, Miami or Austin for example. They also seem to go the H&M route and open a number of stores in the market after the initial flagship, so we may be getting cheap Japanese clothes in a few of the malls around Denver.

If they take this big of a space though, what 20,000 sqf spaces are still *available* for possible expansion of Inditex (Zara) though? They are opening 12 new stores nationwide this year and have been rumored for 16th street around the same time as the first H&M, but it never materialized...

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by mishko27

If they take this big of a space though, what 20,000 sqf spaces are still *available* for possible expansion of Inditex (Zara) though? They are opening 12 new stores nationwide this year and have been rumored for 16th street around the same time as the first H&M, but it never materialized...

There's not much left in the Pavillions and the Civic Center end of the Mall seems to be shaping up as downtown's "fashion" district so other options need to be found. The Cottrell's building seems like an idea candidate to hold a larger fashion retailer- diagonal to the Pavillions with H&M, Forever 21, and (now) UNIQLO makes it a strong location. If would be nice if Gart Properties could acquire control of that building and expand the footprint of the Pavillions further down the Mall as the Mall really needs more of a unified retail plan that can really only be secured via having more contiguous retail ownership.

If Block 162 ever gets off the ground it could provide some great retail locations as well.

[DenvertoLA]

You can kinda see the excavation for the Kimpton Hotel from the 1601 Wewatta webcam

http://oxblue.com/open/1601Wewatta

[Denver Dweller]

http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_278611...s-more-than-two-dozen?source=most_viewed

[TakeFive]

Yikes! You wanna buy this new house in Stapleton? You've got two hours to bring a check for $6,000.

Ben Markus has a very good article at cpr.org.

Totally amazing and one would have to assume that everything under construction anywhere within Denver will be absorbed. Not sure when or how this story changes but for now it's party on.

More groundbreakings to come I'd think.

[seventwenty]

Originally Posted by DenvertoLA

You can kinda see the excavation for the Kimpton Hotel from the 1601 Wewatta webcam

http://oxblue.com/open/1601Wewatta

I now wanna find all the webcam construction spots and make a timelapse montage. Even Rocky had a montage.

[DownhomeDenver]

Originally Posted by comoneymaker

This project has been on going for like 6 years now. Something may happen at this site but wont be what they have planned. First off $175 mill is not enough to get done what they want. A huge chunk will be used up just to buy out the Stay Bridge Hotel that just renovated last year.

If this does really happen and it's successful, it will just be another sales tax siphon from Denver. I can't even see 9th and Colorado being much of a success if this gets built. All the good retailers would probably end up in Glendale.

[TakeFive]

This is a more significant shoe to be dropping

"Noble Energy to cut jobs in U.S., Colorado in 'organizational realignment'"
Apr 7, 2015 by Cathy Proctor, Denver Business Journal

Noble Energy Inc. (NYSE: NBL), one of the biggest oil and gas companies working in Colorado, on Tuesday said it “is implementing an organizational realignment of its U.S. operations,” a sweeping move that will cut jobs in Denver, Greeley, Houston...

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

This is a more significant shoe to be dropping

"Noble Energy to cut jobs in U.S., Colorado in 'organizational realignment'"
Apr 7, 2015 by Cathy Proctor, Denver Business Journal

Whatever, it's the nature of the extractive industries- you cut the fat and go lean during downturns in the market while keeping your institutional knowledge intact. Sucks if you're on the bottom rung of the ladder.

[rds70]

Some Cherry Creek news:

BMC Investments is proposing an 8 story hotel on Josephine Street between 2nd and 3rd Avenues.

It would be a 154 room Moxy Hotel.

As far as I can tell, this Marriott brand is only found in Europe at this time.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by DownhomeDenver

If this does really happen and it's successful, it will just be another sales tax siphon from Denver. I can't even see 9th and Colorado being much of a success if this gets built. All the good retailers would probably end up in Glendale.

There's always a Neighborhood Wal-Mart option for 9th & Colorado. Maybe the City will man up and shove it down the neighbors throats this time around.

Glendale has obviously had tons of trouble getting this project off the boards, it first morphed from the far more ambitious Riverwalk project to this. If you look closely, you'll also notice that there were plans for a hotel as part of this project (one of the buildings has a ton of hotel facilities in the floorplans) that has also been cut. So all that's left is an entertainment lifestyle center with shitty traffic connections. You'll see that they are aiming for a movie theater, a bowling alley (aka Lucky Strike) and a couple of large restaurants to anchor the other retail and food and beverage options. Yeah, that's going to get me to drive to the "entertainment hub of the Denver Metroplex."

Now the open beverage option where I can walk from place to place in the complex with a drink and get absolutely shit-faced before jumping back in my car certainly is an interesting idea....