PHILADELPHIA | Highrise Development Thread IX

[jsbrook]

Originally Posted by lwill

To say one cannot develop models to predict future growth, or in fact using past indices to do so is completely untrue. Its the whole reason inferential statistics exists.

[/IMG]

Real inferential statistical models that take into account past indices also take into account fundamental cultural and sociological changes. Yours does not seem to. With that said, I DO appreciate the renderings. So thank you for those!

[Flyers2001]

Originally Posted by cafeguy

Eds and Meds won't dry up... but research funds are dramatically down and will not be increasing or growing by any means for the foreseeable future and hospital profit is also much lower these past two years and considered to be continuing a decline as basic/small medical needs are pushed out to suburban or local hospitals while the city hospitals will focus primarily on large procedures.

So, eds and meds won't be going anywhere for the long-term, but you can definitely expect to see very VERY limited growth unless these institutions can promote entrepreneurialism to grow in other ways, find ways to cut costs, or increase admissions.

I don't agree with your statement about small procedures vs large procedures being done in or out of the city. I read am article specific to Jefferson that they plan to grow their outpatient centers within the city. Take a trip to PCAM, the surgie center is booming. hospitals realize the need for outpatient surgie centers and the revenue that they generate, they are not leaving that money on the table.

[lwill]

Originally Posted by jsbrook

Real inferential statistical models that take into account past indices also take into account fundamental cultural and sociological changes. Yours does not seem to. With that said, I DO appreciate the renderings. So thank you for those!

True! regional and international sociocultural-among many other indices-would be used in any serious statistical forecasting. Not as though anyone needs it; but it discusses this in the publication I provided a few posts ago.

Not to beat a dead drum, but my initial intention was only to give one; perhaps the simplest of variables-past performance-to add context to my post. In and of itself, it was not the amount of skyscrapers constructed in the past that was my point; it was also its relationship to the construction done in a city like Chicago. In other words, I'm suspecting a moderate correlation (R2) between pop. size and skyscraper construction.

I think if we hold the populations at a constant between Chicago and Philly; also considering regional markets etc.-barring a tidal wave that engulfs NYC- It wouldn't be radical to believe both cities will grow at their current paces up until 2045.

If it makes anyone feel better; the cubs will still not have won a world series.

[Outta here]

" If it makes anyone feel better; the cubs will still not have won a world series. " [/QUOTE]


You do realize , I am born and raised , 1060 W. Addison .

[cafeguy]

Originally Posted by Flyers2001

I don't agree with your statement about small procedures vs large procedures being done in or out of the city. I read am article specific to Jefferson that they plan to grow their outpatient centers within the city. Take a trip to PCAM, the surgie center is booming. hospitals realize the need for outpatient surgie centers and the revenue that they generate, they are not leaving that money on the table.

Yes...they would love to do this and they are trying, but insurance companies are convincing patients otherwise and they realize it is a big paradigm change moving forward in the healthcare world. I'm at Jefferson actually and go to a number of seminars that repeat and repeat and repeat this.

[Mappy]

You knew I'd have to get in on this action...



I already showed some images from what is currently under construction and proposed, and those will almost all be built within 5 years. The changes are impressive, so I think by 20 years out there should be a lot more changes, most of which you could guess about.

Tallest ones of note are "Comcast's 3rd Professional Offices" tower (aka C3PO), 22nd/JFK, 30th/Market, 9th/Market, and development on the Vine Street Greenway (capped 676 trail and parks) with a tall residential tower at 17th/Vine.

[Outta here]

Thank you Mappy . Love your rendering . I was wondering if you would reply .
....... So since all you talented projectionists are better at vision posting , how about this .
Just a few years back , Brad Maule , or someone posted a series of elevations of the proposed
American Commerce Center ( a design I personally was not up for ) . That giant was to be some
1210' to the roof and 1510 to the top of the spire . I think two of my favorites , Chicago's Trump
International Hotel & Tower , and Manhattan's Nordstrom Tower would really bang the 🞵🞵🞵🞵 out of
your 2035 rendering .
Can you take a building from another city and inject it into your rendering ?? Just for shits and giggles .
And since it's all pretty much speculative , just put the darn things anywhere ..... if it's possible .

[jberlin2334]

Saw this article today, a design firm has created a pair of skyscrapers that don't cast as strong of a shadow. Pretty neat stuff.

http://news.discovery.com/tech/gear-and-...-dont-cast-shadows-150319#mkcpgn=rssnws1

[philatonian]

Originally Posted by Mappy

You knew I'd have to get in on this action...



I already showed some images from what is currently under construction and proposed, and those will almost all be built within 5 years. The changes are impressive, so I think by 20 years out there should be a lot more changes, most of which you could guess about.

Tallest ones of note are "Comcast's 3rd Professional Offices" tower (aka C3PO), 22nd/JFK, 30th/Market, 9th/Market, and development on the Vine Street Greenway (capped 676 trail and parks) with a tall residential tower at 17th/Vine.

Awesome! What on earth is that tall building on PA Avenue?

[Austinlee]

Originally Posted by Mappy

You knew I'd have to get in on this action...



I already showed some images from what is currently under construction and proposed, and those will almost all be built within 5 years. The changes are impressive, so I think by 20 years out there should be a lot more changes, most of which you could guess about.

Tallest ones of note are "Comcast's 3rd Professional Offices" tower (aka C3PO), 22nd/JFK, 30th/Market, 9th/Market, and development on the Vine Street Greenway (capped 676 trail and parks) with a tall residential tower at 17th/Vine.

Are all of these U/C or proposed?

[hammersklavier]

Originally Posted by Insoluble

100% agreed in spirit, the rate of construction need not be constant. But just to be pedantic, in practice it would be impossible to come up with a predictive model for construction based on analysis of derivatives.

True, stochastic calculus is much better for building models out of noisier systems. It's much more difficult than doing single- or multivariable calculus of variations.

Originally Posted by Austinlee

Are all of these U/C or proposed?

Not really. Most of those are really guesses based on demand arbitrage.

[Mappy]

Originally Posted by Austinlee

Are all of these U/C or proposed?

Nope.... The earlier image includes a lot of speculative and imaginary buildings that I think could/should be build by 2035.

For example, [re: Philatonian] I dream that the City Line will become a new subway line (from 30th street station to 8th/market), and serve commuters from Brewerytown and Fairmount, which will drive real estate along PA Ave to resemble development around Central Park in NYC



...THIS is an image of all the U/C and proposed buildings which I imaging could all be built by 2025. (some of these proposals are stalled or possibly dead, but I treat them the same here)

[skyscraper]

Originally Posted by Outta here

" If it makes anyone feel better; the cubs will still not have won a world series. "

You do realize , I am born and raised , 1060 W. Addison . [/QUOTE]

OK, Mr. Blues.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HsHjW8rBRk0

[Outta here]

[philatonian]

Originally Posted by Mappy

Nope.... The earlier image includes a lot of speculative and imaginary buildings that I think could/should be build by 2035.

For example, [re: Philatonian] I dream that the City Line will become a new subway line (from 30th street station to 8th/market), and serve commuters from Brewerytown and Fairmount, which will drive real estate along PA Ave to resemble development around Central Park in NYC

I love it! I wish I knew more about the rendering software. I haven't taken an architecture class since we used drafting tables and protractors. I might have to break out the t-square.

I always felt that Brewerytown and Strawberry Mansion should be high profile neighborhoods simply because they are on the park. When you go to Strawberry Mansion (the actual mansion) it reminds me of those perspective pictures people take of landmarks that show you what it looks like from the other direction, like how the Great Pyramids of Giza look like they're in the middle of the desert until you look in the opposite direction and it's a city full of tourist traps and KFC Taco Huts.

I have to imagine the neighborhoods along Ridge Avenue and the reservoir are going to boom soon with or without a new subway line, but better transportation could put put a spike in the Central Park-ish type development you mention.

[philatonian]

Has anyone put together a new rundown on here like the one we had back in 2006-ish? There are so many proposals and so much construction going on, it'd be cool to see a breakdown of what's happening, approved, pitched, etc. PhillySkyline.com used to be on top of it but it looks like he's been tackling litter lately.

[tsarstruck]

Originally Posted by philatonian

Has anyone put together a new rundown on here like the one we had back in 2006-ish? There are so many proposals and so much construction going on, it'd be cool to see a breakdown of what's happening, approved, pitched, etc. PhillySkyline.com used to be on top of it but it looks like he's been tackling litter lately.

Looks like it hasn't been updated in a year, but this picked up where PhillySkyline's Skinny left off:

http://thephillyskinny.blogspot.com/

[philatonian]

Originally Posted by tsarstruck

Looks like it hasn't been updated in a year, but this picked up where PhillySkyline's Skinny left off:

http://thephillyskinny.blogspot.com/

Looks like they were working on a pretty cool database.

[philatonian]

I tried putting down a rundown myself. Feel free to let me know if I missed anything...

http://ilovebricks.blogspot.com/2015/03/the-rundown.html

[Outta here]

Great job . Thank you for your attention to detail . If at all possible , up-dates every six months or so , would knock this sucker out of the park .

On another note , the database lists 1919 Market to top out at 367' . I believe the original proposal listed it at something even taller ..... Your input lists it at 337' . Is this high rise shrinking as we speak ........