DENVER | Main Development Thread #6

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by mhays

So...you're saying there's a chance!

Every developer except the ones actually doing it.

I'm not interested in what happens for the very top-end of units that are at double the median unit price for the metro area. If your solution to a problem is to wait until housing prices literally double, then we have very different ways of thinking about the problem. I'll stick with legislation.

When I think of "builders," I generally do not mean the custom homebuilders who pull 5 or 10 permits per year. And when I think of "developers," I am not thinking of the lone wolf who does 1 or 2 projects per decade. Frankly, those do not matter in the big picture.

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Just curious. Assuming the bill gets passed what parts of the metro area would you guess would see some condo development? Obviously not everybody can live downtown especially given the price points.

South suburbs, some northwest/Boulder County, probably pockets in Lakewood and Arvada, and definitely up far north/Fort Collins area. I don't think there will be much market for the really low end suburban product like you'd see in the east, northeast, and north suburbs.

[mr1138]

Originally Posted by pregersthehobo

Not quite. I've been sitting on this because well, it's not much but...I had a meeting at the Pepsi Center administration level in October and there were site plans labeled "Pepsi Center Master Development Plan" in a stack on a filling cabinet on the way to the meeting room. They looked very similar to DI's (or was it Urbanism?) "Proposal" from awhile back. Naturally, I couldn't take a pic as I was in a meeting.

I had a follow-up in November and they were gone. I didn't see a date on them but they looked pretty recent.

Sadly, this is nothing more than rumor but Kroenke is definitely thinking, or has a one point thought about developing the parking lots at Pepsi.

Knowing the way Kroenke does business, he is going to own all of it. He might invite an investor or two but he doesn't really need them.

So there it is, I have no more info than that. But I think some of you would like to know, even if nothing comes of it.

That is interesting. This of course is an even more natural location for the next major infill neighborhood, but I always write off this part of Auraria simply because Kroenke seems like such a wild card. I don't doubt that it will happen someday, but I have no idea what kind of real estate time table Kroenke prefers to move at. He certainly can afford to wait.

There are of course other similar possible locations. The Denver Coliseum area also has a ton of vacant land fairly close-in. Or the railyards just east of there. A lot of that depends on the large institutional/industrial facilities like RTD the Pepsi bottling plant that are sitting on large parcels of land in the River North area. Facilities and organizations that need to be somewhere, but may ultimately be influenced by increased land values driven by redevelopment potential just like anyone else. Sun Valley and some of the industrial areas/railyards south of the new Metro State athletic fields seem like candidates for CPV style urban renewal too. It just feels like the Broadway/I25 is the next likely place something like that will happen.

[mhays]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

I'm not interested in what happens for the very top-end of units that are at double the median unit price for the metro area. If your solution to a problem is to wait until housing prices literally double, then we have very different ways of thinking about the problem. I'll stick with legislation.

When I think of "builders," I generally do not mean the custom homebuilders who pull 5 or 10 permits per year. And when I think of "developers," I am not thinking of the lone wolf who does 1 or 2 projects per decade. Frankly, those do not matter in the big picture.

But maybe at the $300,000 level condo values are only 2-10% too low to justify the cost and risk. The fact that projects pencil at the high end suggests they're not far from penciling at lower price points. If values increase a bit (faster than costs increase), the market should broaden as well.

[DenvertoLA]

Random question, does anyone know when the King Soopers in the Elan Union Station apartments building will open up shop?

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by mhays

But maybe at the $300,000 level condo values are only 2-10% too low to justify the cost and risk. The fact that projects pencil at the high end suggests they're not far from penciling at lower price points. If values increase a bit (faster than costs increase), the market should broaden as well.

It would seem that a demand for downtown or nearby condos is likely out there at lower price points. I'm curious the ability to build a 20+ story downtown or 8-10 story off downtown and make it work at lower prices (than high end).

Regarding financing such projects wouldn't the fact that the rental market has been so strong mitigate the risk as the developer could just rent a number of units for a period of time? I suppose in order to do this the developer would have to take title of individual units or could they get loans for a block of units for like 3-5 years?

[pablosan]

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[denconyny]

Has anyone seen this? A new condo building, called Nava Sloan's Lake, planned to be developed on the former St. Anthony's Hospital site.



http://wellcertified.com/nava-sloans-lake-condos/

So some condos are planned to be built.... although the price range of these will probably be

[Fritzdude]

Nice photos, Pablosan..

Curious to know what time of day you took those photos since there are literally no people walking around... Looks like a ghost town.

[seventwenty]

Denver Post on Buy 'n Scrapes

Demolition permits rose from slightly more than 100 a year in the mid-1990s in Denver to just shy of 400 at the peak in 2007, according to Denver's Office of Community Planning and Development.

They fell off a cliff during the housing downturn — reaching a low of 92 in 2011. But last year, they hit 373.

. . .

[S]peculators like Dave Jackson, owner of Jackson Design Build in Centennial, have rejoined the fray the past two years.

. . .


Jackson picked up a 1,760-square-foot duplex [built in 1921 in Wash Park West] for $460,000 in November 2013 and demolished it.

. . .

The units have basements, large windows and coffee-brown brick — a nod to the color scheme of the neighborhood.

Each home will list for $889,000 and offer four times the space of the previous duplex units, not to mention the energy efficiency and amenities they lacked.

. . .

Demolition permits since 2007 are heavily concentrated in northwest Denver in neighborhoods like Berkeley and Highland and running southeast to cover the park neighborhoods — Washington Park, Platt Park and University Park.

With lots harder to find in more heavily scoured areas, scrapes are spilling over into nearby areas like Sunnyside, Regis, Sloan's Lake in northwest Denver and Hilltop and South Park Hill in east Denver.

. . .

Demolitions are rare or nonexistent in Denver's southwestern and northeastern neighborhoods and out in the suburbs, although Genereux predicts Wheat Ridge might see more activity.

Scrape Map

[DenverInfill]

Originally Posted by Fritzdude

Nice photos, Pablosan..

Curious to know what time of day you took those photos since there are literally no people walking around... Looks like a ghost town.

I was going to post the same question. I was downtown much of Saturday morning and afternoon and there was a ton of people out and about everywhere I looked. I can't figure out how Pablosan managed to take so many photos with no humans in them.

[pablosan]

Last Sunday, about 9:00am-10:30am. I'm also a photo Ninja. I can make a city look like its a scene out of the walking dead.

[Dogpatch]

Great photo tour, Pablosan. Thanks for posting! You got some really nice angles. Denver's looking amazing.

[Denver Dweller]

http://insiderealestatenews.com/2015/02/07/discover-denver-launched/

[DenverPoke]

Obviously nothing definitive, but this lady with Kentwood says developers may be moving forward with high-end condo projects:

http://insiderealestatenews.com/2015/02/09/kentwood-luxury-home-sales-rise-more-homes-needed/

[The Dirt]

It looks like Skyhouse is definitely going to have a construction cam. I saw some guys installing it on the roof of the Emily Griffith high school building about an hour ago.

EDIT: well that was fast -- http://oxblue.com/open/SkyHouseApartments/

[seventwenty]

Tangentially related: Denver water use at a 40 year low

Originally Posted by Denver Post

The total amount residents used in December decreased to 3.19 billion gallons, and in January to 3.36 billion gallons — down from previous winter highs topping 4 billion gallons, utility officials said.

The last time December use dropped this low was in 1973 when Denver had 350,000 fewer people.

. . .

The low use this winter continues a trend of declining water use despite a growing population. Denver residents use 82 gallons a day per person for all indoor and outdoor purposes, utility data show. That's down from 104 gallons in 2001 and puts Denver ahead of other Western cities that are counting on conservation to avoid running dry.

Water supply has become more of a challenge around the West, with population growth and droughts projected to be more frequent and severe. The crisis in California, where mountain snowpack lags at 25 percent of normal, prompted Interior Secretary Sally Jewell to meet with Gov. Jerry Brown last week to hash out relief.

Farmers use the most water, by far, for food production — an 85 percent share in Colorado. Yet it is city dwellers who are making the greatest strides in water conservation.

Denver Water leaders last week declared a new target for 1.3 million customers: 30 gallons a day for indoor use.

The overall water conservation effort relies on a widening strategy: rebates for those who switch to water-saving appliances, tiered water rates that encourage using less, summer lawn-watering restrictions, and a rule that all new development must include soil "amendments" so that soil retains more water.

Water bills still are relatively low. Denver Water charges about $455 a year for households using less than 115,000 gallons, compared with $1,283 in Arapahoe County and $890 in Colorado Springs.

The recent low use likely resulted partly from citywide conservation projects, utility officials said — including the replacement of toilets in 140 public schools with low-flow models designed in Japan.

[Stonemans_rowJ]

I wish we had an architect/developer here in Denver like this:

http://www.dwell.com/house-tours/article/jonathan


Segal ticks off a laundry list of money-saving, better-living elements of his urban designs: “Eliminate stair towers, eliminate elevators. The whole idea of underground parking is sacrilegious to us.” Case in point: Right next to one of Segal’s larger loft buildings is a similarly sized condo box by a rival developer. Whereas Segal’s tenants enter from the street into a sunny parking court lined with crushed gravel, their neighbors descend into a dank underground garage, a barred steel gate guarding its maw. “Think of the creepiest person you’ve met,” says Segal, “then imagine being stuck in a four-by-six-foot box with them. It’s called an elevator.”

Of course, Segal didn’t invent lofts, row houses, or infill—which is kind of the idea. He’s adamant that smart, simple housing can be built for a lot less than big, bad apartment blocks, which makes him more than a little frustrated. “Our stuff is less expensive than sucky architecture,” he fumes, “but you can’t mandate good design.” And what about the arcane zoning regulations, obstreperous NIMBYs, and bureaucratic molasses that usually cut progressive urban architecture off at the knees? Segal is appropriately vague when asked how he gets the copious variances and permits that allow his more interesting ideas to flourish; one suspects it’s a combination of architect’s charm and developer’s clout.

[mhays]

This guy is....arguing for surface parking?

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by The Dirt

It looks like Skyhouse is definitely going to have a construction cam. I saw some guys installing it on the roof of the Emily Griffith high school building about an hour ago.

EDIT: well that was fast -- http://oxblue.com/open/SkyHouseApartments/

Haha, pretty amazing. Those at HQ and investors(?) love this I'd guess.