DENVER | Main Development Thread #6

[PLANSIT]

Originally Posted by seventwenty

"This webpage is not available"

Not gonna fix it either.

[pablosan]

I think we're doing just fine. We update main forum as is necessary.

[Scottk]

Originally Posted by seventwenty

Plans to redo DIA's Jeppeson Terminal are back on

Really?

The security setup that currently exists seems ideal... I can't even imagine how they could redo the terminal in a way that is more efficient than what they have now.

On busy days the security area already uses up most of the space that they have on both sides

[seventwenty]

Interesting overview of Globeville, Elyria-Swansea, and the new NWSS complex masterplan

[Stonemans_rowJ]

Originally Posted by seventwenty

Yeah but at what price point? Right now the price point is close to $400,000. Not exactly affordable if you're a 20 something.

Depending on what you make, you could try for an affordable housing unit. I see them come up in Riverfront occasionally and there are units in Stapleton (I know I am not a fan either), although I would recommend a free market unit. Look for a vintage unit. I am very bullish on Central Denver.

Really, if you look at our peer cities, we are still relatively affordable.

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by Stonemans_rowJ

Really, if you look at our peer cities, we are still relatively affordable.

No, really we are not, not based on any objective metric. Not unless you narrowly define our peer cities to only include coastal cities. Plenty of metrics out there, but take the National Association of Realtors metro affordability index, because it's easy to access and pretty straightforward. We're in the top-20 for least affordable, and looking above us I see San Diego and Seattle. Portland is basically a tie. Also more expensive than us, you find the usual suspects, San Fran, LA, New York, Miami, and Boston, and their suburban standalone MSAs. But those are hardly peer cities, and you must be doing very well for yourself if you think that Denver being on-par with those cities for affordability is an acceptable place to be.

Every other metro in America is less affordable than us. There is exactly one non-coastal MSA less affordable than us on the list - Boulder. We are hands down the least affordable city between the coasts nowadays. Maybe that's okay for you, but it's not okay for me.

I don't know you, but if I had to guess, my guess would be that you're an upper middle class young white professional who already owns something in Central Denver. Of course you are bullish, you already got yours.

Originally Posted by Stonemans_rowJ

Is there a precedent for levying large tax penalties on undeveloped city property, either in Denver or other large cities?

I've always liked this idea. But at a minimum, this would require legislation. Depending on the exact structure (and I am not thinking very creatively today), probably a vote/constitutional amendment to make this litigation-proof. I am not sure how we'd legally "over-value" undeveloped property for taxation purposes. This is the constitutional provision that we'd need to overcome to make this work:

Colo. Const. Art. X, Section 3, (1)(a) Each property tax levy shall be uniform upon all real and personal property not exempt from taxation under this article located within the territorial limits of the authority levying the tax. The actual value of all real and personal property not exempt from taxation under this article shall be determined under general laws, which shall prescribe such methods and regulations as shall secure just and equalized valuations for assessments of all real and personal property not exempt from taxation under this article. Valuations for assessment shall be based on appraisals by assessing officers to determine the actual value of property in accordance with provisions of law, which laws shall provide that actual value be determined by appropriate consideration of cost approach, market approach, and income approach to appraisal. However, the actual value of residential real property shall be determined solely by consideration of cost approach and market approach to appraisal; and, however, the actual value of agricultural lands, as defined by law, shall be determined solely by consideration of the earning or productive capacity of such lands capitalized at a rate as prescribed by law.

[seventwenty]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

Arguments about affordability I agree with

And data.

[Denver]

Originally Posted by Scottk

Really?

The security setup that currently exists seems ideal... I can't even imagine how they could redo the terminal in a way that is more efficient than what they have now.

On busy days the security area already uses up most of the space that they have on both sides

Part of the South Terminal project includes a new security area. I think the DBJ article mention that it has the capacity for 18 lanes.

[Denver]

The Colorado Health Foundation recently announced that they are building a new office building in uptown on the corner of 18th Avenue and Pennsylvania Street.

DENVER – The Colorado Health Foundation today announced an agreement with the Denver Housing Authority (DHA) to purchase land in Denver’s Uptown neighborhood where it will build its new office headquarters. The building will feature "health-positiveSM" design and development standards that exceed the LEED Platinum certification by focusing on the health of visitors and employees.

http://www.coloradohealth.org/yellow.aspx?id=7139

[DownhomeDenver]

Originally Posted by Denver

The Colorado Health Foundation recently announced that they are building a new office building in uptown on the corner of 18th Avenue and Pennsylvania Street.



http://www.coloradohealth.org/yellow.aspx?id=7139

Yup on the southeast corner of 18th and Penn. The address is 1760 PENNSYLVANIA ST.

[DenverPoke]

Originally Posted by DownhomeDenver

Yup on the southeast corner of 18th and Penn. The address is 1760 PENNSYLVANIA ST.

Cool, that's another big eyesore of a lot that will be gone!

[Stonemans_rowJ]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

No, really we are not, not based on any objective metric. Not unless you narrowly define our peer cities to only include coastal cities. Plenty of metrics out there, but take the National Association of Realtors metro affordability index, because it's easy to access and pretty straightforward. We're in the top-20 for least affordable, and looking above us I see San Diego and Seattle. Portland is basically a tie. Also more expensive than us, you find the usual suspects, San Fran, LA, New York, Miami, and Boston, and their suburban standalone MSAs. But those are hardly peer cities, and you must be doing very well for yourself if you think that Denver being on-par with those cities for affordability is an acceptable place to be.

Every other metro in America is less affordable than us. There is exactly one non-coastal MSA less affordable than us on the list - Boulder. We are hands down the least affordable city between the coasts nowadays. Maybe that's okay for you, but it's not okay for me.

I don't know you, but if I had to guess, my guess would be that you're an upper middle class young white professional who already owns something in Central Denver. Of course you are bullish, you already got yours.



I've always liked this idea. But at a minimum, this would require legislation. Depending on the exact structure (and I am not thinking very creatively today), probably a vote/constitutional amendment to make this litigation-proof. I am not sure how we'd legally "over-value" undeveloped property for taxation purposes. This is the constitutional provision that we'd need to overcome to make this work:

Colo. Const. Art. X, Section 3, (1)(a) Each property tax levy shall be uniform upon all real and personal property not exempt from taxation under this article located within the territorial limits of the authority levying the tax. The actual value of all real and personal property not exempt from taxation under this article shall be determined under general laws, which shall prescribe such methods and regulations as shall secure just and equalized valuations for assessments of all real and personal property not exempt from taxation under this article. Valuations for assessment shall be based on appraisals by assessing officers to determine the actual value of property in accordance with provisions of law, which laws shall provide that actual value be determined by appropriate consideration of cost approach, market approach, and income approach to appraisal. However, the actual value of residential real property shall be determined solely by consideration of cost approach and market approach to appraisal; and, however, the actual value of agricultural lands, as defined by law, shall be determined solely by consideration of the earning or productive capacity of such lands capitalized at a rate as prescribed by law.

I generally find flaws or oversimplifications with a lot of these indices. Can you link to the one you are specifically referring to?

Not that its any of your business, but you like to promote the idea that everyone who lives near downtown is some entitled elite trustafarian. When I bought my condo in Lohi (with my wife) in 2011 I was a schoolteacher in Montbello and she was a retail buyer making about the same. We had saved for the past 7 years and had a good downpayment. We would like to move and get a different place in any number of neighborhoods but we are stuck. We ourselves are priced out of most of the neighborhoods we like for the type of dwelling we would want. I would also rent in those neighborhoods but rents are too high so I am stuck, like a lot of people.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by Stonemans_rowJ

Not that its any of your business, but you like to promote the idea that everyone who lives near downtown is some entitled elite trustafarian. When I bought my condo in Lohi (with my wife) in 2011 I was a schoolteacher in Montbello and she was a retail buyer making about the same. We had saved for the past 7 years and had a good downpayment. We would like to move and get a different place in any number of neighborhoods but we are stuck. We ourselves are priced out of most of the neighborhoods we like for the type of dwelling we would want. I would also rent in those neighborhoods but rents are too high so I am stuck, like a lot of people.

You're a DINK and are priced out of LoHi? What's the world coming to?

[mr1138]

Originally Posted by Scottk

Really?

The security setup that currently exists seems ideal... I can't even imagine how they could redo the terminal in a way that is more efficient than what they have now.

On busy days the security area already uses up most of the space that they have on both sides

I too am having a bit of trouble envisioning entirely how this would work, but the basic concept does make sense. Many airports put their security checkpoints staggered between the ticket counters to control access to the rest of the terminal (LAX in specific comes in mind, but it is hardly the only airport I've been to that does it this way). I bet there is a lot more room than people realize up there in the ticketing area now that most ticket counters are rarely ever actually open. A dispersed security setup may actually be more efficient than the current centralized system (I don't know this for sure, but I doubt this would be proposed if they hadn't looked into it... like I said, they have plenty of other airports to use as examples of this kind of setup).

It still leaves some open questions... like how access to the bathrooms will be provided if those hallways between ticketing and the great hall become restricted security pass-throughs. Or if access between the (unrestricted) baggage claim area and the great hall will need to be changed so that you can't go back into the hall after you've left (at least without going back upstairs and back through security). Or if the escalators between ticketing and baggage claim will be able to remain.

The biggest question for me... does this negate there being open access between the great hall and the new hotel and transit center outdoor plaza? Aren't there supposed to be new doors in the south wall of the old terminal enabling free access between these areas? It seems this security setup would prevent hotel guests and arrivals on the train from going into the great hall at all. The 18 new security lanes supposedly will funnel travelers straight through to the train to the concourses - bypassing the main hall.

[Stonemans_rowJ]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

You're a DINK and are priced out of LoHi? What's the world coming to?

wong, don't you live in Wash Park, or do you just shop at the Whole Foods there?

We have our first child on the way; hence wanting to get out of Lohi and no longer DINK. I am not "priced out" of Lohi in that I already own a 2bed condo, but the days of getting a bungalow in Potter Highland and moving up in the same neighborhood are over; $500k for a bungalow is not in the cards for me.

I'm looking at Whittier, City Park, Park HIll, Mayfair etc. Still pricey for us but Northwest Denver (aka "Highland" or as most people call it "The Highlands") is insane. I'm not one of those people who thinks that it is my divine right to be able to live downtown on my budget though.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by Stonemans_rowJ

wong, don't you live in Wash Park, or do you just shop at the Whole Foods there?

We have our first child on the way; hence wanting to get out of Lohi and no longer DINK. I am not "priced out" of Lohi in that I already own a 2bed condo, but the days of getting a bungalow in Potter Highland and moving up in the same neighborhood are over; $500k for a bungalow is not in the cards for me.

I'm looking at Whittier, City Park, Park HIll, Mayfair etc. Still pricey for us but Northwest Denver (aka "Highland" or as most people call it "The Highlands") is insane. I'm not one of those people who thinks that it is my divine right to be able to live downtown on my budget though.

I used to live in Wash Park in a 3-bedroom townhouse, but as a SITCOM (with just one kid) we found ourselves priced out of obtaining a single-family home that's not the size of B-hut in anyplace in the vicinity.

The desire for more than one bathroom and still being under $500K eliminated Park Hill. The school situation eliminated Whittier and City Park. So it's off to Stapleton for us.

[DenverPoke]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

I used to live in Wash Park in a 3-bedroom townhouse, but as a SITCOM (with just one kid) we found ourselves priced out of obtaining a single-family home that's not the size of B-hut in anyplace in the vicinity.

The desire for more than one bathroom and still being under $500K eliminated Park Hill. The school situation eliminated Whittier and City Park. So it's off to Stapleton for us.

Same here, moving to Northfield Stapleton later this year from Clayton. Boo! Though we have 3/2 now, schools and more space are the issues and Northfield is pretty much all there is if you want to stay under $450-$500k. We will be keeping the Clayton house as a rental if anyone is looking this winter.

[seventwenty]

Originally Posted by Stonemans_rowJ

I generally find flaws or oversimplifications with a lot of these indices.

Originally Posted by Stonemans_rowJ

I'm not one of those people who thinks that it is my divine right to be able to live downtown on my budget though.

[Stonemans_rowJ]

Originally Posted by seventwenty

I just looked at your link to the Trulia study and I don't even know where to begin. Apples to Oranges.

[TakeFive]

Stonemans_rowJ... I recalled you were anticipating a new family member. I think the tenor of some of your comments seem to indicate that price wasn't an obstacle for you. Nice to know you're just a regular guy/couple (with child on the way).


bunt_q... We've had previous discussions about the cost of downtown and various neighborhoods. I've wondered and will continue to wonder if Denver can "keep up with the Joneses." They have performed near a level of many coastal cities over the last year. I assume that part of this comes from the energy sector which tends to be higher paying jobs (I assume). Whether Denver has the cache and drivers to continue to keep up is an interesting question.

It's entirely possible that we get caught in a recession at some point. They never ring a bell in advance. Actually, it's likely to be more of a significant cooling off than a "statistical recession." But for many it will feel like a recession. While we're still the "prettiest girl" we could just get caught in a global downdraft.

Specific to Denver there could be cooling in the energy sector. Need to look out 6,9,12 months which is always tricky. Then there's the growing potential for a demand/supply imbalance with apartments downtown. So far, so good, but that can change. I could see apartment rents dropping by 25-35% (including incentives) easily at some point.

As you've previously said home prices tend to be more sticky but a 10-15% drop in resales wouldn't be hard. Since values are determined by those currently in the market (at any point in time) a change in market psychology is important.