Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting

[SignalHillHiker]

We can advertise in Ireland and the U.K. as being sunnier than home. But not in Canada, lol.

We just need people from foggy, indoor cultures. Anyone from Edinburgh, Dublin, London, etc. who is comfortable with a city our size won't really have climate concerns. We get a colder winter but more sun and better summers than most of them.

But overall agree with Lio. You have to love it here to live here. It can't just be the place you live. You have to be fine with its climate and isolation, and more importantly you have to fit in with the local culture. If you don't have the right attitude, you can't find a niche here. It's too small and too unique to have a place for the humourless, etc.

[Stryker]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

We can advertise in Ireland and the U.K. as being sunnier than home. But not in Canada, lol.

We just need people from foggy, indoor cultures. Anyone from Edinburgh, Dublin, London, etc. who is comfortable with a city our size won't really have climate concerns. We get a colder winter but more sun and better summers than most of them.

But overall agree with Lio. You have to love it here to live here. It can't just be the place you live. You have to be fine with its climate and isolation, and more importantly you have to fit in with the local culture. If you don't have the right attitude, you can't find a niche here. It's too small and too unique to have a place for the humourless, etc.

That'd be fine if it weren't for all the — snow.

Granted I love dry snow, however I doubt many people from the countries you mention do.

[Nathan]

Originally Posted by lio45

St. John's above Montreal or Ottawa is normal?

Toronto double Montreal is normal?

Regina above Winnipeg is normal?

Don't know about the others, but median family income in Regina: $91,200, Winnipeg: $75,880 (both numbers from 2012, and Saskatchewan wage growth has been higher than MB in the last few years too). So yes... it would make sense that some things would cost more in Saskatchewan (both Regina and Stoon have higher housing costs than Winnipeg).

[hipster duck]

Originally Posted by Berklon

That's the ignorant mentality of most Canadians nowadays. The idea that if you don't own a home - you've accomplished nothing and are living in fear... even though most people would probably have made more money if they rented and invested the money they saved instead of burying all their money (ie. debt) into a house they can't even afford.

It's also the reason why this country lacks innovation - because we have too great a percentage of our money tied up in the real estate industry and the things attached to it instead of diversifying our economy. The fact that Blackberry (a company that's a fraction of what it once was) is still Canada's number one tech company speaks volumes about how backwards this country is.

I'm inclined to believe this too (I don't know about the BB example, though).

It really does seem like a lot of money in this country is being locked away; I know Canadian companies are sitting on piles of cash that they aren't pumping into the economy, but this seems increasingly true of our individual homeowners.

Ironically, where we do have cash ready to be capitalized, a lot of it comes from large pension funds that would only exist because of the public sector: Caisse de Depot, Teachers', CPP, etc.

That is one of the big ironies of our times: that the source of capital to drive innovation and the free market increasingly comes from a socialist project.

[flar]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

That is one of the big ironies of our times: that the source of capital to drive innovation and the free market increasingly comes from a socialist project.

Ah, the old dialectic of capitalism, it's just as Marx predicted

[WhipperSnapper]

Rents across the board are hugely inflated in Toronto so there really isn't any extra cash flow by paying rent vs home ownership. Home prices range wildly. You can still find affordability right next to the absurd in Toronto.

There's a ton of private equity being invested in Canada. Unfortunately, like pension funds, a huge chunk is going into real estate development and resource extraction.

[hipster duck]

Originally Posted by WhipperSnapper

Rents across the board are hugely inflated in Toronto so there really isn't any extra cash flow by paying rent vs home ownership. Home prices range wildly. You can still find affordability right next to the absurd in Toronto.

There's a ton of private equity being invested in Canada. Unfortunately, like pension funds, a huge chunk is going into real estate development and resource extraction.

Oh, for sure. I'm not denying that there's a huge amount of private equity investment. I'm also not denying that pension funds invest large sums of money in segments of the economy that make us even more dependent on traditional sectors and don't really stimulate new industries.

I just find it ironic that pension funds - being redirected taxpayer money to public sector pensions - are often used to invest in new, wealth-creating projects, while private companies increasingly just hoard cash. They hoard cash because it is good to have some security in an unstable economy. I understand that. Of course, if you hoard enough cash and don't plough any back into the economy, that instability might just be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

It just tips the conventional neoliberal thinking on its head: that the government collects taxes that private companies would have used for more productive purposes.

[WhipperSnapper]

These pension funds are absolutely enormous compared to most private equity and venture capital operations in Canada. It make sense they would have the lions share of investments. That said, they also bare the brunt of Canada lacking innovation. Who knows what would be if they didn't exist and tens of thousands of more Canadians had to plan their own futures what the additional investment dollars would do.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Nathan

Don't know about the others, but median family income in Regina: $91,200, Winnipeg: $75,880 (both numbers from 2012, and Saskatchewan wage growth has been higher than MB in the last few years too). So yes... it would make sense that some things would cost more in Saskatchewan (both Regina and Stoon have higher housing costs than Winnipeg).

But my question is, do you see that as a stable, durable, lasting situation? I don't.

Apples to apples real estate (downtown lot price per sq ft, similar downtown condo, similar SFH, etc.) should normally be expected to be worth more in a 800k Canadian Prairie city & provincial capital (with two universities and a NHL team) than in a 300k Canadian Prairie city & provincial capital.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

We can advertise in Ireland and the U.K. as being sunnier than home. But not in Canada, lol.

We just need people from foggy, indoor cultures. Anyone from Edinburgh, Dublin, London, etc. who is comfortable with a city our size won't really have climate concerns. We get a colder winter but more sun and better summers than most of them.

But overall agree with Lio. You have to love it here to live here. It can't just be the place you live. You have to be fine with its climate and isolation, and more importantly you have to fit in with the local culture. If you don't have the right attitude, you can't find a niche here. It's too small and too unique to have a place for the humourless, etc.

I think I'd enjoy living there for a certain time but I'm not sure I could commit to moving there permanently and the two three big reasons for that are the isolation and the climate, and the Rooms.

[Nouvellecosse]

Saying a larger city should have higher prices than another purely on the basis of size is like complaining your cousin's BMW sold for higher price then your Chevy despite your Chevy being a larger size. Yes smaller cities are often cheaper than larger ones just like smaller cars are often cheaper but there are many other factors. The economy, growth rates, constraints on land and development, general desirability and many other things play a role.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

Saying a larger city should have higher prices than another purely on the basis of size is like complaining your cousin's BMW sold for higher price then your Chevy despite your Chevy being a larger size. Yes smaller cities are often cheaper than larger ones just like smaller cars are often cheaper but there are many other factors. The economy, growth rates, constraints on land and development, general desirability and many other things play a role.

... seems to me it was pretty clearly implicit in my post that several of those factors (land constraints, geography, climate, desirability) are pretty comparable, that's precisely why I'm comparing these two (and not Hamilton, Quebec City or Halifax). So, to reuse your analogy, I'm not finding it normal that a 2006 Aveo with standard equipment in good condition with 100k on the clock is priced higher than a 2006 Impala with standard equipment in good condition with 100k on the clock on the same used car dealership lot, and if it's the case I'm not expecting that situation to forever continue to be true.

I assume you don't have any particular knowledge of the real estate market in Quebec. Would you find it normal to learn for example that Trois-Rivières is more expensive than Quebec City?

[Nouvellecosse]

I used that analogy only to remind people that one cannot draw conclusions by looking only at a few obvious surface factors. The analogy cannot be expanded in the way you're attempting to without in-depth knowledge of both markets to determine how each city would be represented by which car and why. There's a lack of evidence that either city would be best represented by the car you mentioned rather than the reverse or something totally different.

I mean, even if you could conclude that the price difference was caused by one of the markets having unsustainable prices, what makes you assume that the difference is that one market is over-inflated rather than the other being overly cool?

In the original list, Vancouver was a severe outlier since it was 65% higher than even the next highest city on the list. The other cities were grouped much more closely and although it's possible that any of them are due for a price correction (whether cooling down or heating up) the difference is not dramatic enough to suggest a bubble.

And that's something that people constantly seem to forget. A bubble doesn't mean that prices are too high, nor does it mean that current prices need a correction. It means that prices are so high they're completely detached from the real value of the product and are mainly driven by investing based on speculation of further price increases.

[sunsetmountainland]

Originally Posted by whatnext

If you want to "go where the money is" then go. And please stay there. That obviously is your true country.

We do not want, and should not encourage, those who place making a quick buck above liberal democratic values to take out Canadian citizenship. How could we ever trust their loyalties if it came down to a dispute between Canada and their country? How could we expect them to respect our natural environment if doing so interfered with their means of enriching themselves in their true home country.

We don't need those who are "Canadian" solely by virtue of their mom conveniently popping them out in a Canadian hospital, only to return to their country a few months or years later. As we saw in the last Lebanese war, this type of "Canadian" is quick to leave, yet even quicker to insist Canada bail them out when things get bad at home. Using Canada as a convenient hidey-hole, or a place to stash cash only drives up costs for those residents who live and work here.

Well someone is a racist here! Firstly lets get some things strait. What makes a Canadian is going to be different for everyone. We are all lucky to live in such a great country.

I can understand why people will do what sacrifices they have to do to come to Canada.
I certainly do not agree with it done illegally. I was against the portuguese whom came to Canada illegally a number of years ago. They had been living in Canada for years illegally. Some said they should stay as they have been here such a long time. Fact is they had done this illegally. So if you do not send them back you cannot send the ones that come illegally today.
They had a number of boats off of the BC coast years ago.
If they were not refugees they would be sent back. So as far as your liberal ideas Canada is very fare as well as very liberal.

I certainly respect someone whom makes money abroad but has his family living in Canada.

As far, as your reflection on me to go where the money is. If it was personal I live as well as work in Canada. I was born in Canada in Victoria. I am also a white Canadian male which is one of the worst beasts alive in society today!

So beware as I am also conservative and do not care for your liberal racist views!

[sunsetmountainland]

Originally Posted by lio45

Well, I can't be expected to know more than what you choose to let us know, right?

And FYI, I'm far from the only one who would "fear" (FWIW, I really don't think it's the appropriate word) entering the Vancouver market right now. There are so many places out there where the current market values are more reliable... in fact on this continent I'd be hard pressed to find a place with worse revenue property ratios than Vancouver. Maybe Manhattan, and then again I'm not even sure. At least over there values may be skyhigh but rents were more in line with values last I checked.

The only strategy that makes sense in Van is to cross your fingers the bubble keeps growing during the entire time you're planning to hold, and sell for more than what you paid... but it's like rolling the dice. I "fear" rolling the dice with big amounts of money considering there are plenty of much safer options out there.

Please tell me why, I would tell you all of my financial details?

One thing, I understand that you do not is,you are new to learning the details of life. As well as common sense. I understand that you do not live in Vancouver as well I understand you live in Becancour QC.
Now your life is based in what you know of Canada in Becancour QC.

Would you not think someone living in Vancouver would not have a good understanding of the market in Becancour QC.

Perhaps they know a thing or two about the Vancouver market but really they do not have a clue about Becancour QC!

Now lets think this through in a different perception, just for fun.

Someone from Becancour QC what does he really know about the Vancouver market?

Sure he reads things posted he also likes German publications. Does that mean he knows the Vancouver or for that matter the Toronto Markets?

Perhaps he is just a follower who really does not know much about things in life?

[Infrequent Poster]

Originally Posted by sunsetmountainland

Please tell me why, I would tell you all of my financial details?

One thing, I understand that you do not is,you are new to learning the details of life. As well as common sense. I understand that you do not live in Vancouver as well I understand you live in Becancour QC.
Now your life is based in what you know of Canada in Becancour QC.

Would you not think someone living in Vancouver would not have a good understanding of the market in Becancour QC.

Perhaps they know a thing or two about the Vancouver market but really they do not have a clue about Becancour QC!

Now lets think this through in a different perception, just for fun.

Someone from Becancour QC what does he really know about the Vancouver market?

Sure he reads things posted he also likes German publications. Does that mean he knows the Vancouver or for that matter the Toronto Markets?

Perhaps he is just a follower who really does not know much about things in life?

You seem like the type of person who would get punched out all the time and not understand why. Now I say this because that is honestly what comes to my mind. I do not say it to bait you into an argument of any sort. In fact I have no desire to communicate with you at all. (fully realize the irony)

Its just I have read all your posts on here and many of them have an insulting and passive aggressive tone to them. (in my opinion) Not suggesting you change anything, its actually pretty entertaining reading your posts. Perhaps I'm interpreting them wrong.

[sunsetmountainland]

Originally Posted by Infrequent Poster

You seem like the type of person who would get punched out all the time and not understand why. Now I say this because that is honestly what comes to my mind. I do not say it to bait you into an argument of any sort. In fact I have no desire to communicate with you at all. (fully realize the irony)

Its just I have read all your posts on here and many of them have an insulting and passive aggressive tone to them. (in my opinion) Not suggesting you change anything, its actually pretty entertaining reading your posts. Perhaps I'm interpreting them wrong.

Now I understand the irony you do not desire to communicate with me at all but of course you have! I love your sense of humor, I also love to entertain so things seem just peachy to me. Like I said we all have our own opinions just like —!

p.s. I am a very big fellow I do not get punched out but I also know when to listen.

[mistercorporate]

Originally Posted by Infrequent Poster

You seem like the type of person who would get punched out all the time and not understand why. Now I say this because that is honestly what comes to my mind. I do not say it to bait you into an argument of any sort. In fact I have no desire to communicate with you at all. (fully realize the irony)

Its just I have read all your posts on here and many of them have an insulting and passive aggressive tone to them. (in my opinion) Not suggesting you change anything, its actually pretty entertaining reading your posts. Perhaps I'm interpreting them wrong.

Yeah, he sounds like one of those sensitive, sheltered, suburban, know-it-all ignoramuses....

P.S. I say this as a former Vancouverite, that city's housing market is way over-valued as is Toronto's.

[someone123]

Housing prices are a function of both supply and demand and there are a bunch of underlying factors that can lead to high or low prices in large or small towns. There are small towns with 5,000 people that have very expensive real estate and big cities that are comparatively cheap (e.g. Detroit). I guess this sounds like an obvious, pointless thing to say, but there is a tendency on here for people to think that city populations are everything.

Two related factors that drive up prices and don't get nearly enough attention are NIMBYism and bad planning. If new construction is banned in desirable areas, there isn't enough infrastructure to let people commute effectively, and the new greenfield construction is limited or awful then prices will be driven up in the few existing nicer areas as a city grows. I think Toronto and Vancouver both have this going on to a degree.

I'd expect parts of BC to be more expensive than other parts of Canada, all else being equal, because they have a nicer climate and better scenery. Part of the appeal of the Prairies on the other hand is that they're a relative bargain.

[ssiguy]

Nice to here I'm not the only one who is fed up with sunsetmountainland.

He didn't like one of my comments so started a personal attack about a week ago stating:

"SSIGUY moved to BC because his in-laws and boyfriend {I have neither}pays for him. He has no go goals or sense of reality outside of living in London Ontario".

Funny how we have all managed to converse about different issues for years and have disagreed on many things but keep the conversations civil and respectful. Sunsetmountain however is new to the forums and has already produced a litany of insulting personal comments and offensive attacks upon anyone who disagrees with him.

I for one am very tired of him already.