Calgary Economy - Page 14

MalcolmTucker · #**261** Posted **Jan 14, 2015, 9:47 PM**

Bingo Bango Bongo.

suburbia · #**262** Posted **Jan 14, 2015, 9:53 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by MalcolmTucker

Bingo Bango Bongo.

Okay - so certainly makes sense given we'd be starting from fresh. HST of 10% split even with the feds. Let's have the courage to back this need. Don't let Rob Anders and the no-math opposition dissuade us with random accusations of terrorism by NM.

I'm also seeing more and more rumblings from banks and other orgs better informed than I that this could be more protracted than people believe. Furthermore, even after things stabilize, the ripples will keep impacting Alberta for several years to come. Finally, once things figure themselves out better, the added revenue can help build up our Lougheed era savings plans, and provide a starting point for transit and other municipal level challenges.

suburbia · #**263** Posted **Jan 15, 2015, 7:04 PM**

Interesting thoughts from Mayor Nenshi regarding economy:
http://www.cbc.ca/eyeopener/episode/2015/01/14/shell-2/

joe498 · #**264** Posted **Jan 15, 2015, 8:55 PM**

This is a good read, I have always liked the idea of consumption taxes and disliked income taxes / business taxes.

http://www.policyschool.ucalgary.ca/?q=content/enhancing-alberta-tax-advantage-harmonized-sales-tax

Fuzz · #**265** Posted **Jan 16, 2015, 3:09 AM**

CBC has a nice rundown of what various tax increases would bring in:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/ca...shi-looks-back-at-2014-1.2886598?cmp=rss

Full Mountain · #**266** Posted **Jan 16, 2015, 5:20 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fuzz

CBC has a nice rundown of what various tax increases would bring in:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/ca...shi-looks-back-at-2014-1.2886598?cmp=rss

That's not the link you're looking for

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-s-6b-budget-shortfall-running-the-numbers-1.2911788

lubicon · #**267** Posted **Jan 16, 2015, 8:14 PM**

Schlumberger is going to cut 9000 jobs, not sure how many will be in Calgary (or Canada for that matter) but obviously not that many. A few of my ex-coworkers were let go just before Christmas. Apache cut about 20% of their Canadian staff yesterday which amounts to about 40 people, and that that does not include contract employees who were also terminated. The numbers are not huge yet in Calgary but it is a steady trickle with more sure to come.

Full Mountain · #**268** Posted **Jan 16, 2015, 8:58 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by lubicon

Schlumberger is going to cut 9000 jobs, not sure how many will be in Calgary (or Canada for that matter) but obviously not that many. A few of my ex-coworkers were let go just before Christmas. Apache cut about 20% of their Canadian staff yesterday which amounts to about 40 people, and that that does not include contract employees who were also terminated. The numbers are not huge yet in Calgary but it is a steady trickle with more sure to come.

Going to be a rough ride for the upstream & drilling business. That said hydrocarbons still will come out of the wells and need to get to market, better to sell the product and make some money than to let the investment disappear.

ItsALondonThing · #**269** Posted **Jan 19, 2015, 8:08 PM**

http://m.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-b...f-an-era/article22515309/?service=mobile

Negative news or on the money?

1ajs · #**270** Posted **Jan 20, 2015, 12:56 AM**

if true then perhaps the oil comapanies need to start investing in new energy research and help get us addicted to something new so their eggs arnt in one basket

RyLucky · #**271** Posted **Jan 20, 2015, 1:18 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1ajs

if true then perhaps the oil comapanies need to start investing in new energy research and help get us addicted to something new so their eggs arnt in one basket

I was just thinking the other day that it was a smart move for so many OG players to get into ethylene and propylene production lately, especially if they're buying most/all their substrate... Just speculating - I'm no expert on this topic.

1ajs · #**272** Posted **Jan 20, 2015, 1:56 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by RyLucky

I was just thinking the other day that it was a smart move for so many OG players to get into ethylene and propylene production lately, especially if they're buying most/all their substrate... Just speculating - I'm no expert on this topic.

o interesting

MalcolmTucker · #**273** Posted **Jan 20, 2015, 2:21 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by RyLucky

I was just thinking the other day that it was a smart move for so many OG players to get into ethylene and propylene production lately, especially if they're buying most/all their substrate... Just speculating - I'm no expert on this topic.

After you see these graphs, maybe not...

Platts Global Ethylene Price Index:

Source: Platts Global Petrochemical Index

Platts Global Propylene Price Index

Source: Platts Global Petrochemical Index

Chadillaccc · #**274** Posted **Jan 20, 2015, 4:36 AM**

Ugh. How can good news (in one way) sound so totally bad (in other ways)....

Former oil exec: $5-a-gallon gas on the way

Quote:

John Hofmeister attracted national attention in 2010 when he predicted that average U.S. gasoline prices would soar to $5 a gallon in 2012, thanks to rising crude oil prices. His forecast fell short, as the cost of filling up flirted with $4 in 2012, but never went higher.

Now, with gasoline prices at $2.14, their lowest level since May 2009, the former president of Shell Oil is issuing another warning, telling motorists that their joy ride may end sooner than they think.

"The next round of high prices is likely to start later this year, as crude rebounds to the $80s and $90s, perhaps pushing to the $100 level by late in the year or early next," Hofmeister told me the other day after a trip to Calgary, where he was promoting natural gas as a transportation fuel.

"The triggering mechanism will be global demand growth relative to how much capital constraint gets baked into future plans for production this year and next. If new production capital is deferred and demand growth continues at 2% or more, we'll see capacity constraints during 2016, an election year of course, drive prices higher. Whether we reach $4 a gallon or push past, it's too early to tell."

Moreover, Hofmeister still sees $5 gas on the horizon.

"Over the next several years, as demand growth approaches 100 million barrels a day and the industry production falls short, yes, I believe later this decade we'll see $5 a gallon and possible shortages of fuel in some parts of the world," he said.

Hofmeister paints a gloomier picture of gasoline prices than many analysts, including the U.S. Energy Information Administration, which predicts U.S. gasoline prices will average $2.33 this year and $2.72 in 2016. But he also feels that the perception of a "glut" in world oil production now is overstated, with supply outpacing demand by only 1 million barrels a day or so.

Full story: http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/01/19/gas-oil-five-dollar-gallon/21865975/

joe498 · #**275** Posted **Jan 20, 2015, 4:48 AM**

Home prices fall in Calgary as real estate chill deepens

http://globalnews.ca/news/1781133/home-prices-fall-in-calgary-as-correction-begins/

milomilo · #**276** Posted **Jan 20, 2015, 4:51 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by RyLucky

I was just thinking the other day that it was a smart move for so many OG players to get into ethylene and propylene production lately, especially if they're buying most/all their substrate... Just speculating - I'm no expert on this topic.

I believe the Nova Chemicals plant at Joffre is already one of the biggest producers of ethylene/polyethylene in North America.

RyLucky · #**277** Posted **Jan 20, 2015, 7:25 AM**

Oy!

Thanks for the graph. What are the chances manufacturers could capitalize on that locally? Or do we export all our propylene? Or, do we only locally manufacture propylene products that are used in O&G anyway?

Ramsayfarian · #**278** Posted **Jan 20, 2015, 2:39 PM**

If the province wants to raise revenue they should seriously think about legalizing weed and capitalize on the marijuana tourist trade.

There's thousands of pot heads in Canada that aren't able to travel to the states that would flock here. It obviously wouldn't make up for the shortfall, but it would help.

MalcolmTucker · #**279** Posted **Jan 20, 2015, 3:19 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by RyLucky

Oy!

Thanks for the graph. What are the chances manufacturers could capitalize on that locally? Or do we export all our propylene? Or, do we only locally manufacture propylene products that are used in O&G anyway?

Well, propylene is an interesting one, because even with the price drop, the feedstock, propane, is flirting with negative prices in Edmonton.

There was talk a year ago about polypropylene plants going in near the new Williams plant. And if big enough customers went in, Williams twinning its under construction plant.

An old report on the industry: http://www.energy.alberta.ca/EnergyProcessing/pdfs/CMAI_AlbertaPP_Report.pdf

MalcolmTucker · #**280** Posted **Jan 20, 2015, 3:21 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ramsayfarian

If the province wants to raise revenue they should seriously think about legalizing weed and capitalize on the marijuana tourist trade.

There's thousands of pot heads in Canada that aren't able to travel to the states that would flock here. It obviously wouldn't make up for the shortfall, but it would help.

Unlike in the USA, criminal law is at the federal level, so can't really do it.