Wow, what a response! . Didn't think so many people would be interested in speculating about an autonomous future (though I'm glad so many of you are!)
I don't mean to hijack this thread, so this is the last time I will post anything about our blog here. But first:
1) The routes we came up with for the latest post were certainly a result of blue-sky thinking, so don't get too hung up on those. The main point was to show that a more complicated network of routes can exist, not just a hub-and-spoke layout like we currently have. I think the first post on Trax demonstrates this idea better - that drawing colored lines is an archaic way to construct a transit system, and that the future is designating major destinations throughout the network and letting autonomous vehicles, be they trains, buses, or even taxis, handle the complex traffic patterns.
2) We put such a large emphasis on exclusive right-of-way for Trax because from an operational point of view, it is much cheaper to let trains be trains and buses be buses. Rail vehicles of all types operate most economically when they are allowed to accelerate to a design cruising speed and then slow down only once. Trax in the street, crawling at slower speeds and stopping for red lights and pedestrians, is not cost effective.
3)In an autonomous future, traffic control devices designed for human drivers will not be needed - such as lanes or speed limits. Bus Rapid Transit lines will not need special lanes because the other autonomous vehicles will give them priority (sort of like how we give priority now to fire trucks, only without stopping traffic). This means that in a road environment, BRT will have some MAJOR operating advantages over LRT. We haven't posted anything about autonomous BRT on the blog yet, but it's comming soon enough.
4)The autonomous landscape will be very different than the one we have now. Self-driving cars are also self-parking cars, so parking lots can be consolidated, hidden away, or even eliminated entirely. Ride-sharing will be both more convenient and cheaper than owning and maintaining your own personal vehicle, so many people will chose never to own a car. Autonomous delivery vans will make small neighborhood grocery stores economically competitive with their big-box rivals. Road-space for cars can be reduced, giving more space for dedicated bike lanes and wider sidewalks, and even 'linear parks'. In short, dense areas will be allowed to become much more dense while still increasing the standard of living. Urban areas stand to benefit much more from this change than sprawled-out areas.
While you cannot officially plan for such a future, someone should have A plan for how transit can and should adapt to such a different landscape. That is what our blog is about.
There is also the 'Autonomous Cars' thread on the transportation page:
http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?t=211534
There. Speculative interruption over. Back to regular SLC transit news.