YVR Airport & Sea Island Developments Discussion

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by craneSpotter

Hmmm:

[B]Air Canada rouge Expands Vancouver – Los Angeles Service in S15

I posted that increase on 30 Oct. ;-)

But thanks for the complete sched listing though.

Looks like AS reduction is happening. At least for the winter effective 6 Jan. Makes total sense with both DL and AA coming online as AS flew for both DL and AA code shares. So they will lose a lot of that Frequent Flyer base. And a big drawdown for AS to feed the Aussie flights on the late afternoon flight. AS is/was the main feeder for Qantas. Now you will have DL feeding DL and VA (Virgin Australia) and AA feeding QF.

And reading the airliners.net thread is mostly just doom and gloom. It's not like they are dropping the route altogether. There will be 6 airlines on that route with 11 daily flights in the winter and capacity will still be higher than last winter despite this drawdown. But of course the facts just get in the way.

[Johnny Aussie]

http://aircanada.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=43&item=823

http://aircanada.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=43&item=824

So record profits. Seem to be allocating their resources quite well.

2 777-300ER being purchased.

Consistent J product on all 787s and 777s.

The A330-300s will probably be sticking around longer as Prem Economy going to be added to them.

Replacing 8 E90s with 3 321s and 2 320s.

Etc....

Ooooh... Air Canada calls YVR a "major hub"

"The increase on transcontinental services is partly driven by the positioning of certain Boeing 777 and 787 aircraft at Air Canada's major hubs in Toronto and Vancouver."

Ha!

[craneSpotter]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

I posted that increase on 30 Oct. ;-)

But thanks for the complete sched listing though.

Looks like AS reduction is happening. At least for the winter effective 6 Jan. Makes total sense with both DL and AA coming online as AS flew for both DL and AA code shares. So they will lose a lot of that Frequent Flyer base. And a big drawdown for AS to feed the Aussie flights on the late afternoon flight. AS is/was the main feeder for Qantas. Now you will have DL feeding DL and VA (Virgin Australia) and AA feeding QF.

And reading the airliners.net thread is mostly just doom and gloom. It's not like they are dropping the route altogether. There will be 6 airlines on that route with 11 daily flights in the winter and capacity will still be higher than last winter despite this drawdown. But of course the facts just get in the way.

sorry, didn't see it.

[zahav]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

2013 keeps getting blown away! Exceeded my expectations. Some very big numbers.

Note: YVR does not include any FBO numbers in its pax counts.

http://yvr.ca/Libraries/Aviation_Mar...2014.sflb.ashx

SEPT 2014
Overall up 8.8% to 1,681,291 (up 135.5K)
Domestic up 9.6% to 893,325 (up 78.5K)
Transborder up 10.2% to 383,330 (up 35.4K)
Asia Pacific up 7.0% to 236,110 (up 15.5K)
Europe up 5.3% to 152,888 (up 7.6K)
Misc Int'l down 9.8% to 15,638 (down 1.7K)
Total Int'l (incl transborder) up 7.8% to 787,966 (up 56.9K)

YTD 2014
Overall up 8.2% to 14.9M (up 1.1M)
Domestic up 7.4% to 7.7M (up 527K)
Transborder up 9.0% to 3.7M (up 302K)
Asia Pacific up 12.0% to 2.2M (up 236K)
Europe up 5.8% to 1.1M (up 57K)
Misc Int'l 1.5% to 313K (up 4.5K)
Total Int'l (incl transborder) up 9.0% to 7.2M (up 599K)

Cargo was up 12.8% in September as well (11.5% YTD)

These are amazing numbers wow, even higher than the August growth! Even being cautiously optimistic with the numbers, this will put YVR well ahead of 2013, and is definitely the growth leader among major Canadian airports!

[Hot Rod]

19M pax for 2014?

20M+ for 2015?

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by Hot Rod

19M pax for 2014?

20M+ for 2015?

Yup. Even with slower rates through the end of the year... and there really is no indication things are slowing down...

2014 should fall into the 19.3 - 19.5 million range. It would take just under 10% growth over the last quarter to exceed 19.5 million.... highly unlikely.

And 2015 already shaping up to be pretty good across the board with forward capacity projections. 2015 should exceed 20 million.

[Johnny Aussie]

This could actually help strengthen YVR-China and perhaps help with the launch of YVR-CAN on AC.

http://aircanada.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=43&item=827

If all the hoop jumping can be done most likely this will be in effect by the end of next year.

[SFUVancouver]

Chuck Chiang: YVR looks to take its Gateway role to next level

By Chuck Chiang, Vancouver Sun Columnist November 9, 2014 12:57 PM



With Calgary’s airport undergoing a $2-billion expansion clearly aimed at attracting more international service, it would make sense if Vancouver International Airport saw YYC as a primary competitor in commercial aviation.

But that would be an incorrect assumption, according to YVR Airport Authority President and CEO Craig Richmond.

In an annual address to a Vancouver Board of Trade meeting late last month, Richmond outlined bigger plans for YVR — far beyond being Canada’s premier Asia-Pacific Gateway (a role that Calgary would no doubt try to challenge with its terminal and runway expansion).

“Well, (YYC) clearly would love to have what we have. They are spending $2 billion on it,” Richmond said. “We have to make sure we keep our landing fees as low as possible, and work hard to keep the customers’ experience at a high level when they travel through our airport. Because, if (Calgary) can get some traction, they may pull some traffic from us.”

Richmond explained that YVR is after the lucrative connection business between Asia and North American destinations, acting as a gateway between Asia and not only Canada, but also the United States, and potentially beyond.

So he has another airport in mind when he talks about competition.

“I would say the real threat is Seattle, especially with Delta Air Lines making Sea-Tac their Pacific hub.”

Richmond noted the two airports have similar geographic qualifications for servicing Asia-North American routes (and potentially future Asia- South America routes) while Seattle-Tacoma has the advantage of a government-funded financial model.

One of YVR’s top priorities under Richmond is the idea of creating a visa-free connection hub for Asia-South America traffic, a move that would both increase the number of direct-flight destinations for Vancouver travellers and businesses, as well as create a new source of revenue from passengers who otherwise would not have any contact with Canada.

Although the concept remains a fair distance from reality — there are currently no direct flights from YVR to South America — Richmond said a major hurdle will soon be removed. [emphasis added]

[snip]

http://www.vancouversun.com/Business...953/story.html

[Denscity]

Well, YVR has added AF/Paris/Europe and is the North American Asia king adding KIX and more from China. If South America gets added this will mean a third International dimension of expansion!!

[casper]

Originally Posted by SFUVancouver

http://www.vancouversun.com/Business...953/story.html

Interesting.

[Hot Rod]

big smile!!!

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by Denscity

Well, YVR has added AF/Paris/Europe and is the North American Asia king adding KIX and more from China. If South America gets added this will mean a third International dimension of expansion!!

Originally Posted by casper

Interesting.

Originally Posted by Hot Rod

big smile!!!

http://www.vancouversun.com/Business...953/story.html
The outstanding question is: will YVR get those South America flights or not.
The first one will (would) probably be to Lima, as that area has many of the mining interests based in Vancouver.
Many people believe that there is insufficient traffic to warrant YVR-South America flights, which is possibly very true.
Also, what if SEA-TAC gets on board and does the same thing? They would have no reason not to.
And DELTA would probably have no compunction in providing flights to South America, traffic warranted.
Finally what about LAN airlines, and TAM? Are they not Skyteam also? Correct me if I'm wrong.

[Klazu]

LAN is OneWorld.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by Klazu

LAN is OneWorld.

Thank you, and excuse me.

If Seattle had the same idea as YVR (and I'm thinking here of Craig Richmond's ambitions for the airport),
I wonder how readily, and how easily DELTA could launch South America flights from Sea-Tac?
If they see Vancouver doing it, isn't it natural that they'll try to muscle in and grab that business traffic, too, if the yield/load factors are there?
Yes, I know many knowledgeable people here think it's too much of a long shot anyway, and maybe it indeed is, but if it DID work .........
YVR would have some real competition, maybe even nipping us in the bud before we were to get going. (All in the subjunctive, for the moment)

[moosejaw]

Originally Posted by Klazu

LAN is OneWorld.

NOt to toot my own horn.....LAN also has a heavy heavy presence in Miami and the folks at MIA are already three steps of YVR. Mining or not. Latin Americans will like coming to places they feel familiar with. Asians also love gambling. That will also win them over in Miami. If its any airport SEA TAC and YVR have to worry about its MIA. Besides 80% (my guess, not fact)of SEA TACs travel is domestic with Alaskan, Delta and American using it as a hub. I remember running the numbers a whole back but i recall that YVR's international traffic dwarfs SEA. I honestly dont think SEA would be that great of a threat. Like Vancouver, almost half of Miami's air traffic is international.

The only benefit i see is Lima and possibly Santiago. Sao Paulo, Buenos Aires, and Rio are all out of the way. (i believe)

[Klazu]

I would think MIA and YVR/SEA being on the opposite corners of the continent, they would be way too far apart to be competitors in this space. IAH might be a bigger competitor for our corner and MIA is perhaps more competing with the likes of YYZ?

Are there even many direct flights to Asia from MIA? Ain't that Miami starting to be too far for most of the planes to reach from many parts of the Asia?

I know Miami has great South America connections and that is thanks to the city being the Latin America immigration gateway.

[trofirhen]

Judging from responses such as the ones above, it seems that YVR's upcoming TWOV facility will more probably
than not, turn out to be a 'white elephant.'
As moosejaw pointed out, the only real possibilities from here seem to be Lima and Santiago.
However, as this traffic would presumably be aimed at the Andean mining operations, with several hq's in Vancouver, maybe this is, in fact, realistic, if limited.
Another thing mentioned was that the YVR TWOV facility would also serve, and presumably add to,
destinations in the USA that YVR currently does not have. Miami seems to be a front-runner, if that is the case.

[Hot Rod]

i dont see SEA as a threat to South America at all, as there is no logistical reason for anybody to start running flights from SEA to SA. Delta is not going to since they are now focusing on LAX anyway and already have the ATL monstrosity with those connections. SEA was a gamble for Delta to capitalize on the former United and Northwest Airline's international network based at SEA; and it has mixed results. And as was noted, SEA is more of a domestic airport with one major hub (Alaska) and a gateway (Delta). SEA is not an alliance fortress and is too far off the grid to be a competitive threat for Asian to SA traffic, IMO.

Now, if Delta was to really make SEA into a true hub; having daily flights into SEA from all major US cities and then funneling them Intl, then I'd see SEA as a threat to Asia. But that isn't going to happen, SLC is the domestic hub and LAX is the International gateway. I wouldn't be surprised to see Delta scale back the SEA experiment just like it did PDX back in the day, and just maintain SEA-NRT and perhaps SEA-PEK or PVG.

[casper]

An airline like Copa Airlines to Panama city may be a viable option. Not certain if a 737 can make it Vancouver from Panama City without significant penalties. Smaller aircraft that is easier to fill, Star Alliance, onward connections to Brazil.

I have not look at how the schedules line up to more connections at both ends.

[trofirhen]

A route development person at YVR said we would probably, if anything, get Lima. The airport (ranked as the best in S.A.) is constantly growing, and is the northwest "gateway" to that continent. Sounds logical to me. I cannot see São Paulo, or anything in Brazil or Argentina from YVR.