YVR Airport & Sea Island Developments Discussion

[teriyaki]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Possibly on the cards for late 2015.... among others. Rouge is far from finished with YVR.

....stay tuned to this station for your regular updates.

Always tuned to this station.

[Johnny Aussie]

Been some discussions lately about cargo and Canadian airports.

Most Canadian airports seem to keep their cargo stats fairly private. YVR reports monthly which appears higher than the Stats Canada figures. Stats Canada does provide some pretty decent tables.

YVR seems to be a solid #2 when it comes to cargo and some decent growth is being witnessed this year.

List ranked by total cargo in tonnes for 2012 (> 30,000 tonnes):

1) YYZ 345,826
2) YVR 193,353
3) YHM 89,563
4) YYC 81,828
5) YUL 78,555
6) YMX 69,827
7) YWG 68,608
8) YHZ 30,070

Source: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/51-203-x/2012000/t005-eng.htm

[Denscity]

This is my favourite channel Johnny love your programming!
^^^ Hamilton is punching above its weight in cargo.

[twoNeurons]

Originally Posted by craneSpotter

Air Canada Rouge modifies planned Vancouver – Osaka Service in S15

Update at 0800GMT 22OCT14

Air Canada rouge on Tuesday 21OCT14 opened reservations for planned Vancouver – Osaka Kansai service, starting 01MAY15. Based on inventory listing, rouge will offer 4 weekly flights from 01MAY15 to 24MAY15 (YVR departure), instead of 5. The 5th weekly service will be added from 26MAY15.

Flight number change is also effect.

AC1951 YVR1205 – 1455+1KIX 763 x146
AC1952 KIX1625 – 1000YVR 763 x257

Service operates Day x46 from YVR, Day x57 from KIX from 26MAY15. Previously AC planned to operate this route as AC1927/1928.

http://airlineroute.net/2014/10/22/zx-kix-s15update2/

So, what are the differences between rouge and AC regular on int'l flights? Flights starting at $897 to KIX all-in is really competitive. Looks like taxes on the flight are only $97. I wonder if this means aeroplan miles for a rouge flight would actually be cheap.

Apart from the older planes, I mean.

[trofirhen]

The location of YVR on a flat river delta island, and known to all to lie within a heighly seismic region,
would seem to necessitate earthquake-resistance engineering. What, and to how deep an extent, has been done at YVR, given the context?

[deasine]

The control tower is the only part of the airport that would survive in a large earthquake.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by deasine

The control tower is the only part of the airport that would survive in a large earthquake.

Thanks. ..... (yeeeeesh)

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by deasine

I don't think the South America option is as easy as Richmond touts it to be. If anything the TWOV would really help Air Canada increase its hubbing operation in YYZ as YYZ will definitely be going after this programme. For hubbing operations to work, it needs a strong hub carrier and YVR does not have that.

In the last 5-years, we've seen the end of many multi-carrier routes: British Airways and Qantas through their original (and arguably most iconic) Kangaroo route used to have BA operate services from LHR to BKK, HKG, and SIN, with QF picking up the rest of the way to Australia. For many reasons namely increased competition, QF opted to partner with EK instead now, and even the new EK-QF relationship is more EK sided than the equal BA-QF relationship. For YVR to become a South American hub as Richmond has envisioned, either:

• Air Canada develops South American routes which for reasons I already discussed does not seem likely to happen due to the existing availability of routes at YYZ (as it seems YVR would not have the TWOV competitive advantage for too long) and because YVR would not have enough O&D to support routes to South America
• South American carriers to be attracted to fly to YVR but this requires further feed - There are only three international airlines in Latin America/South America likely to do this: Avianca, Copa, and LAN. Avianca is part of Star Alliance and while there hasn't been too many partnerships, it would be logical to operate with AC. It could be possible for them to operate to YVR instead of YYZ to not "directly" compete with AC. However, Avianca has a lot of their hands tied right now with integration of their subsidiaries and Asia has not really been their main concentration focus (I see them likely growing in Europe first and using European hubs to feed onto Asia). Copa's niche is more for North America-South America with Panama as a centre hub rather than for international ambitions, but even if they were to expand beyond this niche market, it would most likely take form using United's vast international network. LAN could start, but this banks on them making new relationships with other carriers, most likely oneworld carriers: JAL and Cathay Pacific are the main Asian oneworld carriers, but JAL has limited presence in YVR and Cathay acts more alone in oneworld.

Everything you state is, I'm sure, right-on, Deasine, but I have a few questions if I may.
1: WHY does Vancouver not have a strong hub carrier?
2: Once the TWOV is put in place, although it will pale compared to YYZ, will it not at least serve some purpose? Surely it won't end up a white elephant, or will it?
3: I read that LAN has already expressed an interest in using YVR if the TWOV facility is built. Would this not mean at least a connection to Lima?
4: Johnny noticed a substantial O&D market between Brazil and Vancouver. Is that to be discounted?
5: Would the BC -based mining industries, and their holdings in the Andean region not figure into this?
6: KL (Skyteam) has already expressed an interest in a route leg onward from YVR to Lima. Is that not a positive sign, or is it just wishful thinking?

I guess I'm saying that I hope the YVR TWOV facility will, at least, have some purpose, even if it will be dwarfed by YYZ.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

Everything you state is, I'm sure, right-on, Deasine, but I have a few questions if I may.
1: WHY does Vancouver not have a strong hub carrier?
2: Once the TWOV is put in place, although it will pale compared to YYZ, will it not at least serve some purpose? Surely it won't end up a white elephant, or will it?
3: I read that LAN has already expressed an interest in using YVR if the TWOV facility is built. Would this not mean at least a connection to Lima?
4: Johnny noticed a substantial O&D market between Brazil and Vancouver. Is that to be discounted?
5: Would the BC -based mining industries, and their holdings in the Andean region not figure into this?
6: KL (Skyteam) has already expressed an interest in a route leg onward from YVR to Lima. Is that not a positive sign, or is it just wishful thinking?

I guess I'm saying that I hope the YVR TWOV facility will, at least, have some purpose, even if it will be dwarfed by YYZ.

Please try not to take this rude.... But....

I feel like I'm trapped in a washing machine with a repeat wash cycle.... Over and over and over and over and over (repeat 10,000 times).

What is so hard to understand.

YVR-South America is a small market.

Yes the TWOV program may help YVR a bit. But absolutely this will favour YYZ.

Yes YVR may actually nab a few flights to South America. But we are talking maybe a few weekly flights to maybe LIM, maybe SCL, maybe GRU, maybe EZE.... Maybe a total of up to maybe 7 flights a week...but that's all folks. maybe maybe maybe.

Yes there is a pretty decent YVR-Brazil market but enough to warrant frequent direct flights? No.

Yes KE (not KL) is potentially interested in flying to LIM (possibly via YVR).

So other than that I don't understand this constant questioning why YVR is not some sort of super hub to grab all this South America-Asia traffic.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

I feel like I'm trapped in a washing machine with a repeat wash cycle.... Over and over and over and over and over (repeat 10,000 times).

What is so hard to understand.

YVR-South America is a small market.

Yes the TWOV program may help YVR a bit. But absolutely this will favour YYZ.

Yes YVR may actually nab a few flights to South America. But we are talking maybe a few weekly flights to maybe LIM, maybe SCL, maybe GRU, maybe EZE.... Maybe a total of up to maybe 7 flights a week...but that's all folks. maybe maybe maybe.

Yes there is a pretty decent YVR-Brazil market but enough to warrant frequent direct flights? No.

Yes KE (not KL) is potentially interested in flying to LIM (possibly via YVR).

So other than that I don't understand this constant questioning why YVR is not some sort of super hub to grab all this South America-Asia traffic.

Your points are all well made, and now I understand .... except one thing.
WHY does YVR not have a strong hub carrier? It's the second largest airport in the country.
And by the way, I NEVER expected YVR to become a "super-hub" at all. I just hoped for a bit of route expansion, that's all.

[spaceprobe]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

Your points are all well made, and now I understand .... except one thing.
WHY does YVR not have a strong hub carrier? It's the second largest airport in the country.
And by the way, I NEVER expected YVR to become a "super-hub" at all. I just hoped for a bit of route expansion, that's all.

would the TWOV actually hurt YVR in the long run? If it allows for a much larger share of Asian traffic to go through YYZ en route to south america or elsewhere, that would increase direct flights to YYZ from Asia and reduce the necessity or number of people transferring in YVR to go to YYZ.

[casper]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

Your points are all well made, and now I understand .... except one thing.
WHY does YVR not have a strong hub carrier? It's the second largest airport in the country.
And by the way, I NEVER expected YVR to become a "super-hub" at all. I just hoped for a bit of route expansion, that's all.

YVR has a strong hub carrier and it goes by the name of "Air Canada":

Per Wikipedia. This hub carrier flies to: Beijing–Capital, Calgary, Edmonton, Hong Kong, Honolulu, Kahului, Kelowna, London–Heathrow, Mexico City, Montréal–Trudeau, Newark, Ottawa, Seoul–Incheon, Shanghai–Pudong, Sydney, Tokyo–Narita, Toronto–Pearson, Winnipeg, Castlegar, Cranbrook, Fort McMurray, Fort St. John, Kamloops, Kelowna, Nanaimo, Penticton, Portland (OR), Prince George, Prince Rupert, Regina, Sandspit, Saskatoon, Seattle/Tacoma, Smithers, Terrace, Victoria, Whitehorse,Las Vegas, Los Angeles, and San Francisco
Seasonal: Ixtapa/Zihuatanejo, Kailua-Kona, San José del Cabo, Anchorage, Osaka-Kansai, Palm Springs, Phoenix, Puerto Vallarta

It has another strong hub carrier called WestJet that is restricted to North American destinations.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by casper

YVR has a strong hub carrier and it goes by the name of "Air Canada":

Per Wikipedia. This hub carrier flies to: Beijing–Capital, Calgary, Edmonton, Hong Kong, Honolulu, Kahului, Kelowna, London–Heathrow, Mexico City, Montréal–Trudeau, Newark, Ottawa, Seoul–Incheon, Shanghai–Pudong, Sydney, Tokyo–Narita, Toronto–Pearson, Winnipeg, Castlegar, Cranbrook, Fort McMurray, Fort St. John, Kamloops, Kelowna, Nanaimo, Penticton, Portland (OR), Prince George, Prince Rupert, Regina, Sandspit, Saskatoon, Seattle/Tacoma, Smithers, Terrace, Victoria, Whitehorse,Las Vegas, Los Angeles, and San Francisco
Seasonal: Ixtapa/Zihuatanejo, Kailua-Kona, San José del Cabo, Anchorage, Osaka-Kansai, Palm Springs, Phoenix, Puerto Vallarta

It has another strong hub carrier called WestJet that is restricted to North American destinations.

Thank you.
Not to start any dispute, but this refutes DEASINE'S claim that Vancouver does NOT have a strong hub carrier. I'm at a loss what to believe. Or maybe that Air Canada will never fly from YVR to any South American destinations, and that any such flights (meagre in number, it seems) would have to be taken up by LAN, Avianca, TAM, and such, thereby presenting competition for Air Canada, and keeping YYZ in, while shutting YVR out (?)

[casper]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

Thank you.
Not to start any dispute, but this refutes DEASINE'S claim that Vancouver does NOT have a strong hub carrier. I'm at a loss what to believe. Or maybe that Air Canada will never fly from YVR to any South American destinations, and that any such flights (meagre in number, it seems) would have to be taken up by LAN, Avianca, TAM, and such, thereby presenting competition for Air Canada, and keeping YYZ in, while shutting YVR out (?)

It is just a reflection of the differences between North American and other parts of the world. Most North American airlines operate multiple hubs. Air Canada has Toronto, Vancouver Montreal and Calgary. Delta as Seattle, LA, Atlanta, MSP, etc. The European and Asian airlines mostly have just one hub.

When Air Canada adds a new route it has to decided between Toronto or Vancouver or both. If it is faster, cheaper etc. to connect Brazil with Asia through Toronto that is what they will do.

Vancouver does not have a strong international carrier that exclusively uses Vancouver as its hub.

Air Canada does have some routes it operates exclusively from Vancouver. Examples include its service to Australia, South Korea, and the new Osaka route.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by casper

It is just a reflection of the differences between North American and other parts of the world. Most North American airlines operate multiple hubs. Air Canada has Toronto, Vancouver Montreal and Calgary. Delta as Seattle, LA, Atlanta, MSP, etc. The European and Asian airlines mostly have just one hub.

When Air Canada adds a new route it has to decided between Toronto or Vancouver or both. If it is faster, cheaper etc. to connect Brazil with Asia through Toronto that is what they will do.

Vancouver does not have a strong international carrier that exclusively uses Vancouver as its hub.

Air Canada does have some routes it operates exclusively from Vancouver. Examples include its service to Australia, South Korea, and the new Osaka route.

Thank you for that clarification. Maybe this is only wishful thinking and nothing else,
but I still hope that the TWOV facility will result in something, even if only one or two otherwise-unfeasible routes.

[Cage]

First airline to blink on YVR-LAX, from airline outer.com

@airlineroute: Alaska Airlines reduces Los Angeles - Vancouver service from 3 to 1 daily, from 06JAN15

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by Cage

First airline to blink on YVR-LAX, from airline outer.com

@airlineroute: Alaska Airlines reduces Los Angeles - Vancouver service from 3 to 1 daily, from 06JAN15

Just saw that on Twitter.

Not surprised in the least. Something had to give.

Let's see what the next move is.. perhaps that's it. Will see if this gets carried into the summer. To think they were going to be adding capacity this winter to a complete reversal.

Even with that pullout the YVR-LAX market will still see more capacity than last winter.

Imagine AS used to fly about 13 daily mainline ex YVR.... and then there was 1!

And on another note I am abandoning Aeroplan. Anyone else?

[Cage]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

And on another note I am abandoning Aeroplan. Anyone else?

I left Aeroplane last year for UA. Mostly because I was flying YYC to DEN and/or IAH on monthly basis. Unlimited domestic upgrades and free E+ moved me over. However with no credit card program to deposit into UA miles, I have TD aeroplan card.

If you want to find a bunch of others leaving Aeroplan, take a gander over at flyertalk.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Cage

I left Aeroplane last year for UA. Mostly because I was flying YYC to DEN and/or IAH on monthly basis. Unlimited domestic upgrades and free E+ moved me over. However with no credit card program to deposit into UA miles, I have TD aeroplan card.

If you want to find a bunch of others leaving Aeroplan, take a gander over at flyertalk.

I use to be an Aeropalan Elete for many years. Related to Victoria and I find my self on Alaska and WestJet more frequently that Air Canada these days. I put the WestJet points into the American program and the Alaska, Delta, American and Air France points into the Alaska program. Still fly Air Canada but am far less loyal to Air Canada than in the past now I just look for the best schedule, routing comfort and price.

I can get WestJet plus for about the same as a Air Canada Economy seat that earns points. It just becomes pointless to worry about the points program.

[deasine]

Air Canada may officially call Vancouver a hub in its books, but it is very clear Air Canada favours Toronto over Vancouver in its hubbing operations. Anyone that thinks Air Canada is a strong hub-carrier in Vancouver clearly does not know the nature of Air Canada's market and their target operations. They've explicitly admitted in the past that AC will be focusing on hubbing operations in YYZ and the partnerships with GTAA already indicate this is happening and will continue to happen. And in AC's defense, why not? AC's target moving forward is the fifth freedom traffic that happens between the United States and Asia (notice not so much in Atlantic due to the previous agreements with United, Lufthansa). The majority of flights AC's existing Canada-US flights are based on the East Coast. This is why AC decided to relaunch the HND flights from YYZ and not from YVR, to target passengers on the east coast. YVR's existing AC network does not offer this and would require a lot more capacity (and thus expenditure) in order to match YYZs network.

Another issue is YVR's low yield. In the recent "rouging" of flights AC has conducted, a majority of which were to replace existing mainline routes and many of which were done on the west coast. This is indicative of a low yielding market which requires lower costs in order to remain competitive with other airlines offering such routes in the industry. The rouge routes from YYZ in the US all go to vacation/sun destinations that are low yielding, none of them were to major American cities.

The evidence suggests AC will not be the carrier to launch any flights to South American cities within the short-term. In terms of the Asian-South American market, there is nothing YVR offers over YYZ with the exception of one KIX rouge flight which was not developed to target any of this market anyways. Distance wise between Asia and South America, a transfer between YVR and YYZ is really no different. YYZ also has many more AC frequencies (notice I said AC, not Star Alliance codeshare flights) to many of the Asian destinations and have the existing flights to South America as opposed to developing a whole new network for YVR, thus incurring risk.

As I have said before, YVR knows what the target business is and they aim to attract foreign airlines to fly to YVR to stimulate its market. It never relied on one sole hub carrier. Richmond's call for the TWOV programme is aimed to target airlines like KE to add a fifth-freedom route (if they ever get approved by Transport Canada is, KE might be interested but Transport Canada is not). But a big risk for KE to add on a fifth-freedom leg to LIM as opposed to doing it via LAX is at LAX, there's also an ability to attract traffic coming from other parts of North America, but in YVR, there isn't really except for YYC and SEA which could have been done through LAX anyway.

---

Johnny I'm surprised you are on Aeroplan given that you are based in MEL. I know QF's redemption is pretty poor in its Frequent Flyer programme, but do you really make enough flights to Canada to benefit from using Aeroplan? It seems other oneworld carriers might be better options: AA for instance.