DENVER | Main Development Thread #6

[Parker Lewis]

Originally Posted by comoneymaker

Well Republican controlled areas tend to be lagging in the economic side cause...well lets not get into it. But it amazing how big Arizona universities are becoming. They are more like "for profit schools".

Oh, like Texas, Alaska and North Dakota? As far as growth and strong statistics, I think it's tough to find any states doing better than those highly conservative states. I might agree that North Dakota is a bubble waiting to be burst by Saudi or Bakken decline curves, but in that case you would also have to discount New York because of Wall Street. You might keep in mind that although Denver/Colorado is considered "progressive", it is still very fiscally conservative. That does seem to be changing a little as of late, but I still get the feeling a large liberal population in Denver enjoys some of the change as long as it doesn't separate them from their wallet.

[afrench]

Originally Posted by Parker Lewis

Oh, like Texas, Alaska and North Dakota?

As a current Alaskan living in Colorado, lol.

[DownhomeDenver]

Originally Posted by Parker Lewis

Oh, like Texas, Alaska and North Dakota? As far as growth and strong statistics, I think it's tough to find any states doing better than those highly conservative states. I might agree that North Dakota is a bubble waiting to be burst by Saudi or Bakken decline curves, but in that case you would also have to discount New York because of Wall Street. You might keep in mind that although Denver/Colorado is considered "progressive", it is still very fiscally conservative. That does seem to be changing a little as of late, but I still get the feeling a large liberal population in Denver enjoys some of the change as long as it doesn't separate them from their wallet.

You really can't take comoney all too seriously...

[TakeFive]

The Good News Just Keeps Rolling

"Denver apartment vacancy drops below 4%"
According to the DBJ update by Molly Ambrister on third quarter apartment vacancy and absorption HERE.

Net absorption of apartments in Denver increased quarter-over-quarter, with 4,470 units absorbed in the third quarter, compared with 3,127 last quarter.

So essentially as more units are being delivered to the market the vacancy is actually going down. These are metro numbers. Very impressive. Fricken amazing actually.

While there are still a number of projects that will finish up over the next several months, the challenge of absorbing them seems less daunting at this point. While the pace of new groundbreakings may moderate a bit, I see nothing that puts the brakes on more new apartment construction until 2016 when there shoud be a shift to Condos.

The proposed projects in the pipeline are scattered around pretty good and you can see the list HERE along with those still under construction.


Compliments of Daren Nolan

[DenverPoke]

There are 4-5 guys out at the Confluence Tower site today, mostly cutting down trees/shrubs around the old building(getting ready to knock it down?). Between the fencing, markings on the road/sidewalk and site cleanup I would say construction will be starting soon.

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

The Good News Just Keeps Rolling

How in the bloody hell is that good news? The growth is good. Everything else in that story is indicative of a serious and inevitably damaging market imbalance, which is stifling wealth growth and opportunity pretty much an entire city of people under 35, who have no opportunity to start building equity and are paying far too much of their incomes in rent than would be the case if the state legislature wasn't terribly meddlesome. Give me a break. At some point our collective desire to circle jerk over an image of cranes hovering over the skyline needs to come second to some miniscule degree of interest in the greater good.

A better take: http://insiderealestatenews.com/2014/10/25/rental-vacancies-fall-rents-set-record/

[TakeFive]

compliments of pageprogressive.com

Everybody's Doing It
What's that? Everybody is doing what everybody else is doing.

Whether I click on the local Business Journal for Buffalo or Memphis, Tampa Bay or San Antonio, Seattle or Atlanta etc. everybody is:

• Investing in and experiencing renewed interest in their downtown cores.
  Pushing for more density and sustainability.
  Promoting more mixed use and walkability.
  Generally wanting more transit in some form or fashion.

You Gotta Be In The Game
Everybody, everywhere is talking about attracting growth and how they intend to accomplish this with incentives and outreach etc. It's pretty impressive what many of these places have been able to and are accomplishing, including Buffalo and Memphis. The pace, description and density varies of course.

Denver Rocks the Rockies
Ever since Denver's own Great Recession of the late 1980's and early 1990's Denver has already been doing what many places are just now getting around to.

Many thanks and credits to those who came before
Denver has been blessed by so many who have given much time and effort in promoting downtown for decades, before it became fashionable. Denver has been blessed by a strong sense of regional pride. Such regionalism has meant that all major sports franchises are near downtown. It has resulted in cultural expansion, a great new airport, new convention center and most importantly the Fastracks transit expansion. All this has been made possible by the progressive voters of the metro area.

Thanks to commentsyard.com

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

How in the bloody hell is that good news? The growth is good. Everything else in that story is indicative of a serious and inevitably damaging market imbalance, which is stifling wealth growth and opportunity pretty much an entire city of people under 35, who have no opportunity to start building equity and are paying far too much of their incomes in rent than would be the case if the state legislature wasn't terribly meddlesome. Give me a break. At some point our collective desire to circle jerk over an image of cranes hovering over the skyline needs to come second to some miniscule degree of interest in the greater good.

A better take: http://insiderealestatenews.com/2014/10/25/rental-vacancies-fall-rents-set-record/

Thanks for the link. That's a more comprehensive look at the report. I noted the following:

Today, there are almost 50,000 more units on the market than there were in 2000, Silverstein’s research shows.

There are now just under 300,000 units on the market, a number that will soon be passed with near-record construction underway.

Seperately, research by Cary Bruteig, principal of Apartment Appraisals & Consultants, shows there are about 10,000 apartment units under construction in the metro area and 10,000 units in the pipeline. That is double the 40-year average.

I hear you. We could all wish for slower growth I suppose. Maybe Colorado/Denver should jack up taxes to see if that discourages growth? Of course the voters will have to approve of this.

Consider that a survey like this is a snapshot in time. Over the period of a decade it isn't so meaningful.

If you want to continue to build out downtown into a vibrant 24/7 city then the demand has to be there to attract more residents who make the all-important difference. The Good News is that no bubble is imminent.

I can't accept that Millennials flocking to Denver is a bad thing and according to the article that comoneymaker alluded to and that Goat12 linked to , it should be a very good thing. In any event this is not likely to last, (at the current pace) so I figure it's best to just enjoy the ride.

Earlier I was concerned there might be too much construction. Nobody could foresee the strength of Denver's in-migration. Obviously we can't control the this Millennium generation; they have a mind of their own.

For now it seems the party will continue for another 18-24 months and then who knows? I would expect to see more TOD's break ground as a result of this latest vacancy survey indicating a still healthy demand. Eventually the supply will catch up and surpass the demand and then the rules will change. Meanwhile...


compliments of chawlie.com

[Brainpathology]

Originally Posted by Parker Lewis

Oh, like Texas, Alaska and North Dakota? As far as growth and strong statistics, I think it's tough to find any states doing better than those highly conservative states. I might agree that North Dakota is a bubble waiting to be burst by Saudi or Bakken decline curves, but in that case you would also have to discount New York because of Wall Street. You might keep in mind that although Denver/Colorado is considered "progressive", it is still very fiscally conservative. That does seem to be changing a little as of late, but I still get the feeling a large liberal population in Denver enjoys some of the change as long as it doesn't separate them from their wallet.

Texas really? Parker Lewis you just lost.

[Scottk]

Originally Posted by Parker Lewis

Oh, like Texas, Alaska and North Dakota? As far as growth and strong statistics, I think it's tough to find any states doing better than those highly conservative states. I might agree that North Dakota is a bubble waiting to be burst by Saudi or Bakken decline curves, but in that case you would also have to discount New York because of Wall Street. You might keep in mind that although Denver/Colorado is considered "progressive", it is still very fiscally conservative. That does seem to be changing a little as of late, but I still get the feeling a large liberal population in Denver enjoys some of the change as long as it doesn't separate them from their wallet.

You are completely ignoring the highly republican Deep South which is riddled with shit economies and shit quality of life.

[mhays]

I can only wonder whether Texas, the Dakotas, and/or Alaska have a golden ticket of some kind. Do they have silver deposits? Or oil maybe?

[Denver]

So not sure how we missed this, but construction is underway on a second building at the Denargo Market site.

[TakeFive]

^^ There was some previous mention of activity there some time back. Could this just be site prep or is there obvious building construction?

The reason I ask is that there is no mention of anything on Cypress Real Estate Advisors web site although I couldn't access their current limited partnership offerings. Nor could I find anything on the web. I wouldn't know how to search through the SEC for offerings but I'll assume this is part of an ongoing limited partnership offering.

[derek.berardi]

Here's the referenced activity over at Denargo Market. I went past it the other day too and was a bit shocked at all the activity with no real mention that it was coming.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by derek.berardi

Here's the referenced activity over at Denargo Market. I went past it the other day too and was a bit shocked at all the activity with no real mention that it was coming.

Ah hah, guess that answers that. Props for the pics.

Soo, I'll presume maybe the whole project was part of a previous partnership offering and all the investors have been patiently waiting for a return (lol). Assuming this was a "private" offering you'd likely be up-to-date if you're one of the investors.

But No News or Renderings?

Thanks to teen.com

Surely We'll Hear Something Soon?

twitter.com

[DownhomeDenver]

Originally Posted by DenverPoke

There are 4-5 guys out at the Confluence Tower site today, mostly cutting down trees/shrubs around the old building(getting ready to knock it down?). Between the fencing, markings on the road/sidewalk and site cleanup I would say construction will be starting soon.

There is also a sign advertising the tower on the lot now. So yeh this will be under construction very soon!!

[bcp]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

^^ There was some previous mention of activity there some time back. Could this just be site prep or is there obvious building construction?

The reason I ask is that there is no mention of anything on Cypress Real Estate Advisors web site although I couldn't access their current limited partnership offerings. Nor could I find anything on the web. I wouldn't know how to search through the SEC for offerings but I'll assume this is part of an ongoing limited partnership offering.

well..not all offerings are registered (or have to be) with SEC..cyprus is one of those super-priviate RED firms, just don't do promotions. the reason you don't see the offering documents available to the public is because they include trade secrets (strategy), return estimates (financials) and risk assessment - all things that other developers / hacks will grab without paying for them to be properly researched, throught-through, and written (and paid for).

[seventwenty]

Record year for Denver Conventions

Originally Posted by Denver Biz Journal

Denver is on pace for its best convention year ever, with the number of delegates flocking to the Mile High City through the first nine months of 2014 outnumbering those who came here during the city's record-breaking 2013.

Through the end of September, 319,445 conventioneers have ate, drank and networked in Denver — a 2 percent year-to-date bump over last year, Visit Denver said Thursday.

With a number of meetings planned for October through December as well, the convention and visitors bureau estimated the city will attract about 422,000 delegates in 2014, up over the 385,292 that came here in 2013 and even over the 378,863 that visited in 2008, when Denver played host to the Democratic National Convention.

. . .

That boost in convention goers has been a main reason why downtown hotels have experienced increases in room rates and recorded record occupancy figures despite several new hotels coming online this spring and summer.

. . .

"Usually, when you add rooms to a city, you will see an overall drop in occupancy and average room rate unless you also increase demand," Scharf said. "However, this year, the demand is so significant that we have been able to absorb more than 600 new hotel rooms and still see an increase in occupancy and rate."

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by bcp

well..not all offerings are registered (or have to be) with SEC..cyprus is one of those super-priviate RED firms, just don't do promotions. the reason you don't see the offering documents available to the public is because they include trade secrets (strategy), return estimates (financials) and risk assessment - all things that other developers / hacks will grab without paying for them to be properly written (and paid for).

Thanks for clarification. I was obviously grasping... with very limited knowledge. I did see where Cypress had worked with Blackstone on a deal (I think in Austin). Guessing Blackstone provided the construction loan?

[BG918]

I noticed this long ago proposed addition to the Piranesi has started construction at 11th & Delaware. 24 more condos...for sale!!

http://denver-cityscape.com/