YVR Airport & Sea Island Developments Discussion

[zahav]

American Airlines has switched the two daily "US Airways Express" flights to/from LAX starting Nov. 6. They will now be "American Eagle" flights, which is American AIrlines massive regional carrier. It had a notable absence from YVR, but is big in all of AA's hubs, and has a presence at most other decent size North American airports, including YUL and YYZ. Will be nice to have American Eagle after all this time, rather than just another "US Airways Express", which we've seen for years.

[Johnny Aussie]

And there we have it.... the last 763 YVR Trans-Pacific route gone.

Effective 1 March 2015 AC63/AC64 will be replaced with the 788. YVR-HKG remains the HD 77W.

Here is the 788 introducion timeline:

YVR-PVG 26 Oct
YVR-NRT 15 Dec
YVR-PEK 01 Feb
YVR-ICN 01 Mar

I would expect that next summer some of these routes (like PEK) will be upgauged to a 77W as well.

There is also going to be a lot of 788 flights between YVR and YYZ during the winter. According to the airlineroute.net article at least once a day effective 26 Oct. I am starting to see AC uploading these flights in their schedules. Looks like mainly the noon departure AC 102. This is on top of the three daily 77Ws as well.

This is great news for YVR as competition ramps up around it.

http://airlineroute.net/2014/09/09/ac-yvricn-mar15/

[zahav]

Originally Posted by zahav

American Airlines has switched the two daily "US Airways Express" flights to/from LAX starting Nov. 6. They will now be "American Eagle" flights, which is American AIrlines massive regional carrier. It had a notable absence from YVR, but is big in all of AA's hubs, and has a presence at most other decent size North American airports, including YUL and YYZ. Will be nice to have American Eagle after all this time, rather than just another "US Airways Express", which we've seen for years.

Should add, although well known to most in this forum, this will make YVR-LAX one of the few, if not only, international routes to be operated all 4 major US carriers (low cost ie. Southwest not included): Delta, American, United, and Alaska will be operating. Very hard to find routes where all 4 compete, since their hub airports are mostly different and target different areas geographically. Nice to see YVR being the one

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by zahav

Should add, although well known to most in this forum, this will make YVR-LAX one of the few, if not only, international routes to be operated all 4 major US carriers (low cost ie. Southwest not included): Delta, American, United, and Alaska will be operating. Very hard to find routes where all 4 compete, since their hub airports are mostly different and target different areas geographically. Nice to see YVR being the one

And both major Canadian carriers too!

Although DL's nonstop flights only operate for a few weeks over the peak Xmas period, they may eventually add flights year-round.

[Johnny Aussie]

Allegiant appears to be dropping Bellingham-Hawaii altogether now.

Originally they had cut frequencies, then became seasonal... now its gone.

http://www.bellinghamherald.com/2014/09/...ps-flights-between.html?sp=/99/100/&rh=1

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

And there we have it.... the last 763 YVR Trans-Pacific route gone...........

...... {Please excuse the editing, Johnny}. ......

This is great news for YVR as competition ramps up around it.

http://airlineroute.net/2014/09/09/ac-yvricn-mar15/

Precisely where is this competion coming from? Seattle, principally? Toronto (surely not)!! If you could elaborate on this, I'd really appreciate it. Thanks once again, Johnnie.

[teriyaki]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

Precisely where is this competion coming from? Seattle, principally? Toronto (surely not)!! If you could elaborate on this, I'd really appreciate it. Thanks once again, Johnnie.

I'd take a stab to say its a nod to Seattle where Delta is getting quite aggressive with its Trans-Pac flights. A quick check into pricing for October/November flights, it looks like DL is targeting Canadian customers.

Example:

A R/T flight from YVR to PEK with a connection in Seattle on DL is pricing out substantially lower than a flight directly from Seattle to Beijing.

On the flipside, Air Canada is playing the same game.

A R/T flight from Seattle connecting on AC Metal through Vancouver to Beijing is cheaper than a direct flight from Vancouver minus the Seattle connection.

They want to make the new Seattle Hub work, and no doubt they're willing to throw money at it to get peoples attention. I've routed myself through there once already with a too-good-to-resist fare to HKG. If prices stay the way they are, they might get my business again.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

Precisely where is this competion coming from? Seattle, principally? Toronto (surely not)!! If you could elaborate on this, I'd really appreciate it. Thanks once again, Johnnie.

Basically anywhere there is competition. Nobody is sitting still. SEA ramping up its DL gateway, YYC is opening its huge new IFP, sure even YYZ a bit for connecting traffic.

Although I say it over and over, YVR has always had to deal with SEA, BLI, YYC, YYZ etc but the dynamics keep changing.

I still look at SEA stats and am just really surprised at its slack growth. This may change but for now that's a fact. In July, the entire gain of DL int'l pax growth was wiped out almost entirely by just the axed UA flight to NRT. What does that tell you? It says they just cannot be filling those new flights. These numbers would also include the new YVR-SEA flights as well. I keep saying "surprised" because there is no doubt all those new flights would have plenty of intro offers plus all that feed that DL is building up. Of course they will be enticing Vancouverites to fill those empty planes. And of course, there will be plenty that will do that. If the price is right I am sure plenty of people will fly via SEA or drive there. In the years I lived in Vancouver, I actually did that twice. Who could pass up a $99 flight from SEA-EWR. However, now, and if I still lived there, my circumstances have changed and most likely I wouldn't do that again. In any event, YVR is fortunate to have a very solid base to build from and without a doubt YVR's Asia Pacific growth is exceeding the capacity growth which is a very healthy indication of market strength. Of course yields information remains unavailable to us outsiders looking in.

[trofirhen]

Firstly, to teriyaki and Johnny, thanks for that feedback.
Johnny, interesting about the relative lack of Asia Pacific traffic from SEA-TAC compared to YVR.
*
On Another topic it was in the wind that KAL was thinking of doing
a Seoul - YVR- Lima tryout.
Hope it happens, hope it works.

OK; the tangent. Taking PAL as an example going from Manila to Lima:

May I present Exhibit A: Manila - Lima nonstop:

http://www.airmilescalculator.com/distance/mnl-to-lim/

And now Exhibit B, Manila to Lima via YVR:

http://www.airmilescalculator.com/distance3/mnl-to-yvr-lim/

The court may note that while the YVR routing is while the Vancouver routing is 424 miles longer, this routing might prove more profitable in yield

Also of interest is Manila - Sao Paulo

Nonstop:
http://www.airmilescalculator.com/distance/mnl-to-gru/ too long even for a 788

Via Jo'burg:
http://www.airmilescalculator.com/distance3/mnl-to-jnb-gru/

ok this is shorter, but is there enough O/D and connecting traffic to warrant it?
Is there a market there or elsewhere en route going east?

PAL (among others) have large markets in North America, and as Johnny, pointed out,
was surprised at the size of the Vancouver - Brazil market.

Oh, and as a last word, whereas most Asia - Brazil flights are shorter
through YYZ than YVR (except Lima): the distances of both city pairs is interesting to note here;
through YYZ, still shorter than via Vancouver:
http://www.airmilescalculator.com/distance3/mnl-to-yyz-gru/

from Vancouver:
http://www.airmilescalculator.com/distance3/mnl-to-yvr-gru/

:total distance, Vancouver loses by only 127 miles. The 8219 miles to YYZ would necessitate a 787, and that's unlikely given the cuts PAL already made there.

It seems Vancouver might have a chance at becoming a South America hinge after all.

[hollywoodnorth]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Allegiant appears to be dropping Bellingham-Hawaii altogether now.

Originally they had cut frequencies, then became seasonal... now its gone.

http://www.bellinghamherald.com/2014/09/...ps-flights-between.html?sp=/99/100/&rh=1

booooooo yaaaaa! I so want BLI to die a fast death

[Denscity]

Originally Posted by hollywoodnorth

booooooo yaaaaa! I so want BLI to die a fast death

"Like"

[Johnny Aussie]

http://theflyingsocialnetwork.com/flying...ore-flights-to-its-north-american-routes

Next summer Air NZ boosting capacity by 10%. Boosting the summer scheds to 5 weekly for about twice as long as last summer.

As previously mentioned, 6 weekly planned for the upcoming winter scheds too up from 5 last year.

Pretty soon I bet we will see daily flights in the summer and peak winter with or without the 789.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

http://theflyingsocialnetwork.com/flying...ore-flights-to-its-north-american-routes

Next summer Air NZ boosting capacity by 10%. Boosting the summer scheds to 5 weekly for about twice as long as last summer.

As previously mentioned, 6 weekly planned for the upcoming winter scheds too up from 5 last year.

Pretty soon I bet we will see daily flights in the summer and peak winter with or without the 789.

Found this in the Australian Busines Traveller. Vancouver plans by Air NZ mentioned a tad more than halfway down the page.
http://www.ausbt.com.au/air-new-zealand-maps-out-boeing-787-dreamliner-plans

[craneSpotter]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

Found this in the Australian Busines Traveller. Vancouver plans by Air NZ mentioned a tad more than halfway down the page.
http://www.ausbt.com.au/air-new-zealand-maps-out-boeing-787-dreamliner-plans

A daily 787 to AKL Hope it happens soon.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by craneSpotter

A daily 787 to AKL Hope it happens soon.

For sure! Too cool!

Seriously though, I'd love YVR to become a real hub for Oceania, viz "Down Under."
Auckland and Sydney already operational, .... AC announcing 787 to Brisbane starting in 2015... (?) .... if not, maybe Jetstar could pick up BNE and / or MEL. (Melbourne, the fastest growing city in the country, and a strong civic adhesion to the concept of Vancouverism in urban growth, FYI)

{Melbourne, Australia’s second-largest city, has just released a report calling for a boldly Vancouverist solution to its urban-sprawl problem. (The 600-page report drops the word “Vancouver” almost 300 times.) “Vancouver has succeeded in preserving its liveability,” it concludes, “through the early and creative acceptance of the need for increased residential densities.” The B.C. city “is defined by a mixed-use commercial development of medium height located at the base of a high-rise residential tower, which is recessed from the lower levels and from the streets below” – the mighty Vancouver condo.}

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-deb...ouverism-shouldnt-canada/article8981162/
(about a third of the page down)

Off topic, off thread? Not really. This is an indicator of an affinity between two cities, one mid-mid-size, the other big-mid-size. If there's a market for BNE, surely there's a market for MEL. Or am I wrong? Their economic predictions are not so good, despite the rapid increase in city size.
(I'm thinking globally of business traffic yield, by the way.)

Johnny, would you know?

http://www.whocrashedtheeconomy.com/
http://www.melbourne.org.au/cms-policy/melbourne-beyond-5-million
http://geografia.com.au/melbourne/

[Johnny Aussie]

^

Just to be clear there has been no announcements about any further YVR-Australia flights, just continuing speculation. Melbourne's economic forecast is actually anything but bad so not sure where you got that.

The thing about Australian cities is, for example, the "City of Melbourne" is just a tiny area encompassing the CBD and just a bit of the area south of the river. Not like Canada or the USA where a city is huge in area. So in the economic reports you posted that is the Melbourne they are referring.

Overall Australia outlook? Well, the mining sector is slowing down.. the brakes are on after years of out of control growth. This doesn't affect Melbourne much other than having the corp HQ of the two largest mining companies in the world. But the slow downs are being noted in intrastate travel (including significant FIFO traffic) mainly out of Perth and Brisbane. Melbourne population is continuing to grow at just crazy numbers. Just under 100,000 per year. We are approaching the 5 million mark very quickly... we just passed the 4.4 million mark and most likely will be over 4.5 million next year. Melbourne has a very solid corporate/business base as well. Many company head offices and regional head offices (for foreign companies) are located here. So population and higher yielding business traffic would be Melbourne's advantage over Brisbane. But Brisbane without a doubt has a huge geographic advantage over Melbourne (regarding a possible YVR flight). And Melbourne is the most liveable city in the world for third year straight according to the Economist anyway! But the buildup of population in and around the city centre is beginning to have more of a Vancouver feel about it.

[trofirhen]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Thank you for that feedback, Johnny !!

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Thank you for that feedback, Johnny !!

Sure thing.

And after saying all that..... the PDEW figures between YVR and MEL and BNE just don't seem high enough to warrant direct flights. Sure YVR would attract other connecting traffic from Canada but probably not enough.

And as I have also said before, AC would also have to consider the traffic lost on their current SYD flights. It would be a tough fight to make any other Austalian route viable.

If there is another direct Canadian-Australia route it would most likely be from Vancouver anyway. O&D figures sure indicate this. YVR: ~ 270,000; YYZ: ~ 140,000; YYC ~ 50,000; YUL: ~ 35,000; YEG: ~ 21,000.

[Johnny Aussie]

On top of all the international and transborder changes coming... I got some info about the upcoming domestic winter scheds.

Overall little change from last winter for most BC / Alberta markets.

Will double check later in the week (from the Singapore Grand Prix!) if any changes.

YVR HIGHLIGHTS

YYZ: 10 daily (same as 2013) 3 daily 77W (including 1 HD), a daily 788 & a daily 763 for w/b action. 70 flights per week.
YUL: additional 2 flights per week to 27 pw. The daily morning 333 remains.
YOW: 2 daily (same as 2013). Both flights are 320s. Last year there was a 320/319 mix.
YYC: additional 5 weekly flights to 15 daily (13 on Saturdays, 11 on Sundays)
YLW: increasing from 9 to 10 daily (includes one daily mainline E90)
YXT: increasing from 4 to 5 daily (all DH3s)
YQR: increasing from 1 to 2 daily (both CRJs) - transferred capacity from YEG

There do not appear to be any YVR domestic routes with any declines of frequency or capacity.

Overall, AC operations are increasing by a rather substantial 40 departures per week this winter at YVR.

When all the 788 international routes kick in YVR will see 5 daily AC Dreamliners and 6 AC 77Ws. Not bad for winter!

.... also got a little hint at a possible rouge surprise for next summer.... nothing confirmed yet but perhaps soon.

[Johnny Aussie]

Kidding on the part 23 bit but as we all know UA changes every few weeks.

No frequency changes (YVR and YYC escaped any cuts this round, YEG losing more ORD and DEN) but some capacity additions at YVR noted.

Last winter almost all mainline UA flights other than IAH (738) were 319s so some decent capacity bumps for the period after the Xmas peak through mid Feb.

DEN - one of two daily will be operated by 320s
ORD - one of two daily will be operated by 320s
SFO - one of the four daily will be operated by 320s
IAH - the daily flight being upgauged to a 739