DENVER | Main Development Thread #6

[Wizened Variations]

Originally Posted by mhays

I don't get your point about appreciation. Why would building high-end condos increase the values of lower-priced condos? The only instance that makes sense to me is penthouses helping mixed-income buildings pencil.

I have recently read, and, I cannot remember the source (sorry), that in both NYC and Toronto, the upper end high rise condo market is appreciated the market price of the entire real estate sector.

I suspect that sales of $5 million condos inflate the price of the $1 million condos which raise the average price of single family residences.

If a very luxurious high rise condo was built in Denver and the condos sold out quickly to internationals, then wanna be's would want to flock close to them- a kind of reaction to the "gentrification" of new residential construction that is occurring in a few US and Canadian cities.

[mhays]

I bet they meant that the high-end units skewed the average, not that the high-end units made cheaper ones cost more on average.

[Wizened Variations]

Originally Posted by mhays

I bet they meant that the high-end units skewed the average, not that the high-end units made cheaper ones cost more on average.

Both.

There always is a gradation between home prices that is close to continuous in major metro areas including urban cores. The greater the market price increase in one active market segment, the greater the influence on lesser priced segments below. This continues down the price curve until the increase in price factor is cancelled out by pricing 'noise.' This price point, however, is very difficult to determine because of bargain hunters, realtors, the availability of money, zoning, etc.

And yes you are correct as the rate of this price increase influence decreases with house price, so that a $500k house in 2011 might increase 5% in market value while houses over $5 million might increase 20% in a hypothetical model.

[Stonemans_rowJ]

Originally Posted by mhays

Then reduce parking.

yep. The problem is for a small or mid size development (under 30 units) you're already on a smallish lot and then you would have to include at least .75 spots per unit which would have to go below grade. This would no doubt add tremendous cost to the units.

Why not review our neighborhood pass street parking program or have developers pay into something that would lead to a public garage. This really only applies to Core neighborhoods. Further out you probably have room for a surface lot.

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by Wizened Variations

Both.

There always is a gradation between home prices that is close to continuous in major metro areas including urban cores. The greater the market price increase in one active market segment, the greater the influence on lesser priced segments below. This continues down the price curve until the increase in price factor is cancelled out by pricing 'noise.' This price point, however, is very difficult to determine because of bargain hunters, realtors, the availability of money, zoning, etc.

And yes you are correct as the rate of this price increase influence decreases with house price, so that a $500k house in 2011 might increase 5% in market value while houses over $5 million might increase 20% in a hypothetical model.

I tend to think Wizened is right on this one. I am not convinced that there is much of a link between actual cost and selling/renting cost in this market. And it's not as if the market will leave a large gap in the middle price ranges; I think it's perfectly reasonable that rapid appreciation in the luxury segment "pulls along" prices in lower-priced segments. It's false to assume real estate is a perfect market; there's a lot of psychology involved, much of which depend on a probably-unreasonable assessment of future re-sale values. Higher priced units down the street certainly fuel those unreasonable expectations.

[RyanD]

My second time-lapse project is coming very close to completion so in the spirit of that I made a teaser:

• Video Link

[Wizened Variations]

duplicate post

[Wizened Variations]

Originally Posted by RyanD

My second time-lapse project is coming very close to completion so in the spirit of that I made a teaser:

• Video Link

You need more seconds of the "beat of the city"- speeded up night shots of I-25, the great Colfax, people entering and/or leaving Coors field, the Mall at about 5:00p on a weekday when it is really crowded around the southbound light rail station. Friday nights on the Mall are great, too, as well as the mall on Saturday afternoon when it is filled with those who do not work there, but, take their kids to look at the diverse eye candy.

You should tone down the construction shots and DO NOT show the construction of 4-5 story structures. Pull back shots of construction when you do use them, and, use the impressive backdrop of Lodo looking south as a backdrop.

The most impressive train traffic is after work and before Rockies games at DUS Light. Skip the Union Station train shed, for now, with the exception of a few great shots looking west. Go outside of Lodo and take a look at the Broadway Station, on a school day, about 5:00p. See if you can take shots from inside the C or D looking east when people are pouring out of an E train or milling around on the center platform.

You have to show DIA, taken near sunset, looking east at the Terminal. I think the red eyed stallion deserves a cameo, too.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by RyanD

My second time-lapse project is coming very close to completion so in the spirit of that I made a teaser.

I be drooling a little.

[Sam Hill]

Originally Posted by RyanD

My second time-lapse project is coming very close to completion so in the spirit of that I made a teaser:

• Video Link

It looks like this is poised to be the blockbuster of the summer.

[RyanD]

Originally Posted by Wizened Variations

... ...

Here's the thing about this project. I had a single day to shoot it which was on April 26th for the 'One Day on Earth' media campaign. No Rockies game, no convention, bad weather at night and a terrible sunset. It really was just an average day in Denver. Given I only had a single day is what makes the project unique. Planning for something like this and capturing 16 different angles of Denver through time-lapse in a single day is a huge undertaking. Also, this is a trailer and not the final video.

Originally Posted by TakeFive

I be drooling a little.

Originally Posted by Sam Hill

It looks like this is poised to be the blockbuster of the summer.

I'm excited to release the complete video!!

[Stonemans_rowJ]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

- I am at the very upper end of the millennials, and I'd now like to own something at a fixed rate that can build equity, and where I am not living at the whim of a landlord. And I have money (but not $750,000-unit-money.) I simply don't want a 4-bedroom beast with a 45 minute drive - hell, I have enough trouble keeping up with dishes, the laundry, and this forum. But unfortunately, I do not have any options in Denver - the market is not responding - so I rent out of necessity. Probably because developers like mhays are critically misjudging evolving demand. But somebody will figure it out, and make a killing when they do.

I don't understand. $300k is a good budget and should get you into any neighborhood in Denver. There are many great properties out there in this price range. Good properties listed at the proper price tend to go very quickly though. I'd look at 80204/80205 if I were you. Start building your wealth :-)

[bunt_q]

I didn't say I could afford $300k. And also, no, it really doesn't, not unless it needs a ton of work, or is missing some basics. You won't find much of anything actually selling for that. Anything in the $200s sets off a bidding war and it doesn't stay there.

[Stonemans_rowJ]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

I didn't say I could afford $300k. And also, no, it really doesn't, not unless it needs a ton of work, or is missing some basics. You won't find much of anything actually selling for that. Anything in the $200s sets off a bidding war and it doesn't stay there.

I've seen interesting lofts, vintage rowhomes, duplexes, condos in this range that did not need much or any work, and wasn't missing any basics. I can only assume you're looking for a SFH. What basics do these properties lack?

[seventwenty]

I disagree with Wizzy. Looks good, Ryan.

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by Stonemans_rowJ

I've seen interesting lofts, vintage rowhomes, duplexes, condos in this range that did not need much or any work, and wasn't missing any basics. I can only assume you're looking for a SFH. What basics do these properties lack?

No, not under $300k, not unless you're looking really far north. You're probably looking at zillow or trulia, which aren't real. I also can't live that far north since I work down south and have to reverse commute.

[denconyny]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

No, not under $300k, not unless you're looking really far north. You're probably looking at zillow or trulia, which aren't real. I also can't live that far north since I work down south and have to reverse commute.

I'd probably be the last person to know what is being sought here, or what tastes are, and with that, of course I just can't resist putting in my two cents, eh?

So..... how about Midtown?

http://www.hellomidtown.com/new-homes/midtown-portfolio-brookfield-residential

I've driven by there several times in the last few months (since a family member lives only a couple of blocks from there) and with this big new development (only about 15 minutes from DT, and even less if no traffic) I have to say that I'm not easily impressed, but the single unit houses they have there are a main level, with a complete upstairs, and full unfinished basement, 2-car garages, as well as just some outdoor living space around each house? Prices range $350-$400 thousand and this new neighborhood is growing on me after seeing those big lots there being empty for the last 60 or so years. Not exactly urban, but not exactly that far away, either, since its Adams County, but with a Denver mailing address.

Of course, I have to say that this whole development is built on land that was cleaned up after the Sunstrand plant that was once in the area did some contamination of the whole area......... but supposedly its all cleaned up now.

Anyways..... again of course just my two cents.......

[bunt_q]

That's not Denver. And it's north, would add 15-30 minutes to the commute to get through downtown to the south. And it's a client, which means I know the mill levy there is almost double what it'd be in Denver. Three strikes. Plus, $350k is like $2,400/month, I can't afford that. I'd rather live in old Englewood if it's not Denver.

Anyways, let's get back to focusing on Ryan's timelapse!

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

Anyways, let's get back to focusing on Ryan's timelapse!

Or we could focus on the fact that Union Station is now open and ask why in the hell Ryan hasn't got photos?


Denver's Union Station FB

[bunt_q]

It's soooooo sexy inside.