DENVER | Transportation Thread

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

I keep the guns under the back seat, does that count?

Absolutely.

[Wizened Variations]

Let's assume person X lives in Southwest Denver, is employed, makes $30.00/hour after taxes (hard to pick a figure), and, wants to fly somewhere for vacation for 1 week.

What would X tend to think his or her time is worth? Well, $30.00/hour, particular during the 8x5 hours he or she normally works.

So, X takes the light rail>DIA option

A) Can X park for 1 week at a park 'n ride?

Ok, so X is taken by his wife or friend to Mineral (15 minutes)
B) Walks from car to train platform (5 minutes)
C) Waits for the C train (statistical average of 1/2 frequency of 30 minutes) 15 minutes
D) Rides to DUS Light (27 minutes)
E) Exits train and walks length of Underground, 10 minutes
F) Buys ticket in Underground, goes to platform 5 minutes
G) Waits for train (statistical average of 1/2 frequency of 30 minutes) 15 minutes
H) Rides train to DIA approximately forty minutes)

This totals around 130 minutes. Round down to 2 hours. This equals $60.00 in time.

Add:

A) Ticket to DUS Light $4.00
B) Ticket to DIA $8.00 (guess)

Total expense one way $72.00

x2 including return trip $142.00

User saves
A) Walk from car to terminal 10 minutes x2 or $10.00
B) Wear & gas for car at $.54/mile $20.00 each way or $40.00
C) Parks outside 6 nights $12.00 per day or $72.00

Total saved $122.00

And loses

1. 1 hour each way time saved Driving $60.00

Bottom line extra cost before intangibles $40.00

Intangible costs

A) Irritation due to waiting for a train while toting luggage
B) Missing trains due to stoppages or bad memory
C) Fatigue

Cost: Depends on how long one has to take to unwind afterwards.

All this is radically different if one lives 10 minutes on foot from old Union Station.

***********
EDIT: The time cost changes if one lives within 10 to 15 minutes of the DIA line, which excludes about 90% of the metro area. The I-225 line connection works out to about 1 hour less transit and waiting time total.

[seventwenty]

Welp, when you look at it that way, Wizzy makes the strongest case for Uber everywhere.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by Wizened Variations

Bottom line extra cost before intangibles $40.00

Don't you mean $80?

[Cirrus]

Originally Posted by Wizened Variations

What would X tend to think his or her time is worth? Well, $30.00/hour, particular during the 8x5 hours he or she normally works.

This person is only worth $30/hour if they're working. Their time is not worth $30/hour when they're at home asleep.

So we can either amortize their $30/hour/8 hour work day over a 24 hour period, in which case their overall time is actually worth only $10/hour, or we can count their transportation time as either work or non-work, and adjust their hourly value accordingly. That might even vary by mode if someone can work on a train but not while driving a car.

Admittedly, I'm not sure if that's how travel time savings are actually calculated. Would have to look it up.

[mhays]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

Why on God's green earth would anybody local pay $80 each way to get to the airport? That buys two weeks of close-in parking. You guys really do live in a different world, where not owning a car (and the time savings that come with having your own car) makes obvious sense to you, and $55 or $80 trips seem normal. If I had $160 to spend on an airport r/t, I'd drive. And if I didn't have it, I'd be on the $8 Skyride. Sorta makes me cheer for the next big tech crash, bring all you new-Denver folks back down to Earth.

I don't use Uber, but I find your statement ironic. Not having a car saves lots of money. Based on AAA info and the rent I charge for my parking space at home, it might cost $10,000 per year to have a car. Yes there are some added costs. Maybe a taxi every couple months, a couple transit fares every couple weeks, and sometimes walking a long way instead. Walking inflicts the added problem of better health.

As for visitors, for those staying Downtown (and not traveling far afield) it will often be useless to have one, and a sizeable cost to park. Downtown hotels tend to have small parking ratios, which is big reason you can fit 300 rooms on 15,000 sf. They can do this because a ton of visitors don't have cars. Plus it's a pain in the ass to deal with...on my last Denver visit, relatives rented a car, and had to go through a lot of hassle just to return it. (They also stayed at that horrible hotel pod by the airport....)

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by mhays

I don't use Uber, but I find your statement ironic. Not having a car saves lots of money. Based on AAA info and the rent I charge for my parking space at home, it might cost $10,000 per year to have a car. Yes there are some added costs. Maybe a taxi every couple months, a couple transit fares every couple weeks, and sometimes walking a long way instead. Walking inflicts the added problem of better health.

As for visitors, for those staying Downtown (and not traveling far afield) it will often be useless to have one, and a sizeable cost to park. Downtown hotels tend to have small parking ratios, which is big reason you can fit 300 rooms on 15,000 sf. They can do this because a ton of visitors don't have cars. Plus it's a pain in the ass to deal with...on my last Denver visit, relatives rented a car, and had to go through a lot of hassle just to return it. (They also stayed at that horrible hotel pod by the airport....)

I wasn't talking about visitors, clearly that is a different subset. Although, any visitor who is too high falootin' for a regular taxi is not one I intend to plan anything around.

As for locals, sure, it costs plenty of money to have a car. But most people do because on the whole, it makes the most sense to own one. Especially in a city that has zero non-bus intracity transit, where you'd be relying on local bus or something like car-share for just about everything (outside of bike season, I suppose). To say nothing of being stranded in the city on weekends, or having to pay to rent a car then too. Massive, massive inconvenience all around. Suitable for people who have no time constraints in their lives, but not many others.

And of course, the marginal cost of a trip to the airport for somebody who already owns a car is pretty negligible. So the uber vs. parking cost comparison is quite appropriate for the vast majority of people.

[Stonemans_rowJ]

Uber, as has been widely documented, is cutting into the taxi business. An uber to the airport is only marginally more expensive than taxi, and light years better.

I see Uber as a tool for business travelers (either individual or in a group where the cost is even more competitive with rail) coming to downtown. The train will take much longer and not be nearly as convenient. Nobody wants to wheel even a 20lb carry-on roller 10 blocks to get to the Hyatt. So you'll still need a taxi from US.

How frequently will the trains depart DIA? Every 20 minutes? More frequently?

Most Denverites will continue to do what they always do: drive to the airport, where parking is cheap and plentiful. Our garage $23/day is still cheaper than a lot of big city's shuttle lots.

[Wizened Variations]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

Don't you mean $80?

Yes, sir. Makes it even worse.

Originally Posted by Cirrus

This person is only worth $30/hour if they're working. Their time is not worth $30/hour when they're at home asleep.

So we can either amortize their $30/hour/8 hour work day over a 24 hour period, in which case their overall time is actually worth only $10/hour, or we can count their transportation time as either work or non-work, and adjust their hourly value accordingly. That might even vary by mode if someone can work on a train but not while driving a car.

Admittedly, I'm not sure if that's how travel time savings are actually calculated. Would have to look it up.

What I am calculating is 8x5 regular work hours. I do this because a) it is simpler (not having to fractionate the day) and b) because it provides a yard stick with some validity. For example, the equation is far different if we use $15.00 per hour, because while time becomes less of an issue, fixed costs such as $.54 or so per mile automobile costs (I know Bunt and I both have senior vehicles whose cost of operation is significantly less, but, I am using close to the government per mile figure) and parking costs become more significant. At one extreme, someone earning no money has a time worth of $0 per hour, and, taking the light rail and bus makes sense. At the same time, suburban Denverite whose time is amortized at $500 per hour likely will never take the DIA or the light rail.

EDIT: And that X is on paid vacation.

[DenverInfill]

Based on Wizened's analysis:

Total cost using transit: $142
Total cost driving: $182

Transit wins, even from an inconvenient location like the SW suburbs on the opposite side of the metro area from DIA. So what's the problem?

[Mulligan]

Originally Posted by Stonemans_rowJ

Uber, as has been widely documented, is cutting into the taxi business. An uber to the airport is only marginally more expensive than taxi, and light years better.

I see Uber as a tool for business travelers (either individual or in a group where the cost is even more competitive with rail) coming to downtown. The train will take much longer and not be nearly as convenient. Nobody wants to wheel even a 20lb carry-on roller 10 blocks to get to the Hyatt. So you'll still need a taxi from US.

How frequently will the trains depart DIA? Every 20 minutes? More frequently?

Most Denverites will continue to do what they always do: drive to the airport, where parking is cheap and plentiful. Our garage $23/day is still cheaper than a lot of big city's shuttle lots.

Quite the opposite. Estimated 37 minute travel time from DUS to DIA - hell of a lot faster than traffic around rush hour or in bad weather. The trains will run 15 minute headways most of the day (minus very late/very early overnight hours).

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by DenverInfill

Based on Wizened's analysis:

Total cost using transit: $142
Total cost driving: $182

Transit wins, even from an inconvenient location like the SW suburbs on the opposite side of the metro area from DIA. So what's the problem?

I think you've got an error in your math. It should be this:

Transit cost: $142
Driving cost: $122

Time cost incurred for using transit: $60

Total cost difference for transit vs driving: +$80.

[enjo13]

Originally Posted by Mulligan

Quite the opposite. Estimated 37 minute travel time from DUS to DIA - hell of a lot faster than traffic around rush hour or in bad weather. The trains will run 15 minute headways most of the day (minus very late/very early overnight hours).

This!!! I fly out of DIA once or twice a week usually. I groan every time I end up on a flight that gets in between 4-6 PM (which is often). Getting back downtown can take anywhere from 45 minutes to better than an hour.

[CPVLIVE]

Originally Posted by Stonemans rowJ

Nobody wants to wheel even a 20lb carry-on roller 10 blocks to get to the Hyatt. So you'll still need a taxi from US.

I guess no one is expected to use the free mall shuttle which takes you within a block or two of most hotels? Seems pretty easy to me.

[duderino]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

I think you've got an error in your math. It should be this:

Transit cost: $142
Driving cost: $122

Time cost incurred for using transit: $60

Total cost difference for transit vs driving: +$80.

No.

Transit total time = 4 hours = $120
Driving total time = 2 hours, 20 minutes = $70

Transit total out of pocket = $24 (tickets)
Driving total out of pocket = $40 (gas/wear) + $72 (parking)

Transit total = $144
Driving total = $182

I mean look, I don't even begin to endorse the assumptions you use, but for god's sake, do the math right if you're going to come to gross conclusions based on that shady-ness.

Single travelers will almost always win from a time-cost basis by transit (unless you view your time as worth more than $50/hour, which is not beyond the realm of possibility). Anybody that carpools (families included) will probably win by driving.

EDIT: also, that drive time is pretty optimistic I'd say.

[DenverInfill]

I don't believe I made a math error. I think Wizened did in his original analysis.

Let's look at this in a straight-forward side-by-side cost tabulation:



I modified Wizened's assumptions slightly (which actually made it worse for transit). Transit still comes out ahead.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by duderino

No.

Transit total time = 4 hours = $120
Driving total time = 2 hours, 20 minutes = $70

Transit total out of pocket = $24 (tickets)
Driving total out of pocket = $40 (gas/wear) + $72 (parking)

Transit total = $144
Driving total = $182

I mean look, I don't even begin to endorse the assumptions you use, but for god's sake, do the math right if you're going to come to gross conclusions based on that shady-ness.

Single travelers will almost always win from a time-cost basis by transit (unless you view your time as worth more than $50/hour, which is not beyond the realm of possibility). Anybody that carpools (families included) will probably win by driving.

EDIT: also, that drive time is pretty optimistic I'd say.

You're right. I added the time savings of the car-mode to the transit-mode by mistake as an additional cost and just took Wizened's totals to be accurate (they were not). Thanks for catching that.

But that drive time isn't optimistic; 1 hour is easily doable from the SW portion of the metro area, especially if you're using E-470. Which means that the additional cost of the toll needs to be included. That would be $9.85 (license toll) or $7.85 (express toll) one-way. So, either $19.70 or $15.70 round-trip.

[duderino]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

You're right. I added the time savings of the car-mode to the transit-mode by mistake as an additional cost and just took Wizened's totals to be accurate (they were not). Thanks for catching that.

But that drive time isn't optimistic; 1 hour is easily doable from the SW portion of the metro area, especially if you're using E-470. Which means that the additional cost of the toll needs to be included. That would be $9.85 (license toll) or $7.85 (express toll) one-way. So, either $19.70 or $15.70 round-trip.

Actually, I'd definitely back off my 2nd to last statement about who wins - it's clearly a wide spectrum, right? No clear winner all the time one way or the other.

No blanket statement either way is right. Transit will be better for me personally probably 50% of the time, depending on length of trip, whether I'm coming from work, whether it's a family trip, etc, etc, etc...

To speak in generalities, especially based on an analysis of one location in the metro area misses the point, wouldn't you say? The analysis turns on too many factors to capture in a simple case study.

Too logical for this forum? Let me know and I can rage on. I'm new here.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by duderino

Actually, I'd definitely back off my 2nd to last statement about who wins - it's clearly a wide spectrum, right? No clear winner all the time one way or the other.

No blanket statement either way is right. Transit will be better for me personally probably 50% of the time, depending on length of trip, whether I'm coming from work, whether it's a family trip, etc, etc, etc...

To speak in generalities, especially based on an analysis of one location in the metro area misses the point, wouldn't you say? The analysis turns on too many factors to capture in a simple case study.

Too logical for this forum? Let me know and I can rage on. I'm new here.

I wouldn't say that you were speaking in generalities in this case (or it was implied), but this is definitely an analysis with a narrow scope that only captures a small percentage of the metro populace.

BTW, the break even point in this scenario for the car versus transit user is 2 days in the economy lot, anything over that and the advantage is to transit. Assuming that E-470 is the route used.

[navyweaxguy]

Shouldn't all of this be in the transit thread, so I can go back to bitching about short towers and doubting about if projects are even going to be built?