Quote:
Originally Posted by poconoboy61
From your post that I responded to, I thought you were questioning the idea that Phoenix as a whole has to remain as suburban as it is. You're right, far North Phoenix isn't going to be walkable and very few people care to make it that way. However, if you look much, much closer into the core, there are still areas that many urbanists believe should have less of a suburban footprint that they currently have that still will never be urban. Long time residents of neighborhoods much closer to downtown have argued against change any time a proposal that goes against the grain has arisen. I think it is virtually impossible for the city to make any major changes to any neighborhoods (outside of the immediate downtown core and in lower income areas) without an outcry from neighborhood residents that will be so great that the city will not go forward with whatever they're proposing. It's the way Phoenix works. If residents don't like a proposal, it's not going to happen. I think Phoenix is like it is because this is what the masses want. If there was enough opposition to the low density, single family sprawl that carpets the city, there would be more high density areas with high rises. That's just not what we have.
The only way to get change in this city is to have politicians who are willing to either commit political suicide or somehow drum up enough support from local residents (again, not going to happen) to proceed with something unique to Phoenix. It is unfortunate, but it is reality. I think that the easiest way to get around this challenge is for the city to find an economically challenged neighborhood where a good number of residents would be agreeable to a neighborhood transformation to reduce crime, attract jobs, etc. and try higher density there. A good start might be along S. Central where the light rail might travel one day. I think the city could upzone areas along Central to require much higher building heights and more traditional urban design. Seeing as the city almost completely lacks this, I think if this came to fruition and was successful it might lessen resistance in other neighborhoods toward adopting this style. But in neighborhoods that are well established, with neighbors with strong political influence, strong neighborhood groups, transformation will not be happening any time soon.
The ship has long sailed away in most areas. Those neighborhoods are what they are and there will be no change. The crucial time for us was in the 1940s-1970s when the neighborhoods outside of the downtown core were being platted. They were designed the way they were and the period of retrotting them is gone. The city we have today is not a result of recent decisions. It is a direct reflection of the choices we made when we still had a chance to chart our own identity. We have decided to be suburban and that's what we'll remain.
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Excellent write up.
To my knowledge, Phoenix has been the last city in the US to build out it's freeway system: all the loops post date the 1970s, and, new loops continue to be built.
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Part of the current problem relates to the velocity of change of demographics which have occurred in virtually every US city after WWII that developed very extensive single family sprawl, and, is proportional to the rate of expansion of this sprawl and the time in which the sprawl occurred. Phoenix has been one of the last US cities to go through it's explosive suburban growth period.
This US wide process is compounded in Phoenix by the small size of the urban core built prior to this explosive suburban growth and by the lack of old small towns surrounding the core. The city of Phoenix never grew large enough in the railroad age to have extensive railroad right-of-ways available for (relatively) cheap lines. Likewise, Phoenix never had many possible potential right-of-ways connecting downtown to railroad age small towns due to the paucity of such towns.
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The problem, is, however, that suburban growth as shown in cities such as Phoenix, Dallas, Houston, and, Atlanta will not continue due to interacting factors relating to rising material and energy costs due to national and global factors beyond local control. For example, housing subsidies resulting from extraordinarily low interest rates which permit builders to purchase high priced materials while providing the purchaser with (fairly) low interest costs will end, and, housing prices will have to adjust to a more accurate mark to market pricing system. Housing costs, for the bottom 90% or more will change dramatically, perhaps morphing further into 3 to 5 story rentals, owned by corporations. Another example might be the rapid rise of air conditioning and transportation costs upon the same 90 (or so) percent, with the real costs of reconstructing the housing stock and replacing the automobile fleet greater than the ability of people to pay due, again, to global demand.
So Phoenix is stuck with what it has, and, will pay a very high price for it's mistakes. While this also can be said about all large US cities, Phoenix is afflicted with a far more severe case of the "past mistakes" than most. For example, Phoenix does not have an extensive downtown building supply to convert into "micro apartments" such as NYC, Pittsburgh, and, Chicago have. Likewise, Phoenix does not have affordable right of way to provide time efficient BRT, light rail, or commuter rail options.
Only smart thinking, combined with both the willingness and the available money to invest in energy efficient, small dwellings within an hour transportation distance of employment will save Phoenix from imploding (not so much in population but in both footprint and relative wealth).
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