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  #1481  
Old Posted May 10, 2014, 1:25 AM
isaidso isaidso is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by esquire View Post
Maybe the Montreal thing might happen, but the others? Not a chance. That's not to say that they couldn't, it's more that the interest needed to sustain a team simply isn't there.

I can't imagine that spending $400 million or whatever to build a baseball stadium in Calgary would be remotely profitable.
The Lower Mainland is Canada's baseball factory. It produces this countries baseball talent and the sport has cultural relevance with the Canadian born population. MLB will land in Vancouver. It's more a matter of 'when' than 'if' imo.

It's hard to see Edmonton and Calgary in that light, but both will be vastly different cities by 2035. Not only will they be larger markets than a number of cities with MLB by then, but they'll also be vastly wealthier. Size matters, but money ends up deciding lots of things.

As these Alberta cities grow in stature and size vs. their north American counter parts, locals will increasingly feel that they should be part of the mix. Baseball is part of our culture. The development of the sport across Canada is something we should embrace.
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Last edited by isaidso; May 10, 2014 at 1:39 AM.
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  #1482  
Old Posted May 10, 2014, 1:32 AM
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Originally Posted by Acajack View Post
Well, I and my entourage are in the prime of our kids' elementary school years. Via family, friends, former high school mates, neighbours, workmates, current schoolmates of my kids, I know or know of hundreds of kids. Literally.

And while I don't have the exact breakdown of everything they do, I know of exactly four kids who play little league baseball. If I sat down and thought about it I could probably name 50 kids who play soccer. Just on my street there are more than a dozen kids who play soccer and none who play baseball that I know of.
That's not a good way of gauging this. Soccer has huge participation rates amongst our youth. That hasn't historically translated into support for pro soccer. Canadians tend to gravitate to the established domestic pro sports when they become adults.
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  #1483  
Old Posted May 10, 2014, 1:51 AM
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Re MLB in Canada

When was the last time the Jays were broadcast nationally in the states? I don't know the answer but I'm pretty sure it's been years and years and years. There's a reason for that > zero interest south of the border which means zero revenue for ESPN or whomever. That's about all you need to know about MLB expansion into Canada > it's a non-starter.

I'd be thrilled if we could see the return of minor-league baseball to Canada but that would require an investment in new stadiums in places like Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, London, Hamilton, Montreal and on and on and on. Highly unlikely, I'm afraid.
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  #1484  
Old Posted May 10, 2014, 3:48 AM
The S'toon Goon The S'toon Goon is offline
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I understand espn calling the shots, but if say the Expos come back and another team gets added in Vancouver maybe tsn becomes inclined to dish out some money for the rights. Even if espn doesn't care about Canadian teams I don't think MLB would care if tsn is paying the bills so-to-speak.

I don't think that the Canadian TV market is capped out with the Jays, but maybe that is the way MLB sees it?
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  #1485  
Old Posted May 10, 2014, 3:53 AM
isaidso isaidso is offline
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The NHL didn't have any interest in Canadian expansion either. That changed because there's value in putting teams here. Same goes for MLB and the NBA. Canada is under served by both of those leagues. California has the same population as Canada, but has 5 MLB teams and 4 NBA teams.

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Originally Posted by samne View Post
I noticed past couple years that Jays caps are the most worn sports swag by the under 35 crowd in Toronto by far. Something we haven't experienced before where now its more of a the "representin" thing. Theres a big hipster element to it for sure. Also the Black or urban youth who are "representin", where before would've been a Yankees cap.
True, but the team cap that's at the top when it comes to hipster pretense has to the be Expos cap. They don't even exist any more.
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Last edited by isaidso; May 10, 2014 at 4:07 AM.
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  #1486  
Old Posted May 10, 2014, 3:57 AM
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Originally Posted by Dr Awesomesauce View Post
Re MLB in Canada

When was the last time the Jays were broadcast nationally in the states? I don't know the answer but I'm pretty sure it's been years and years and years. There's a reason for that > zero interest south of the border which means zero revenue for ESPN or whomever. That's about all you need to know about MLB expansion into Canada > it's a non-starter.
That has zero bearing. Teams that are contenders get on national tv, teams out of the playoff picture do not. It has nothing to do with Canada.
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  #1487  
Old Posted May 10, 2014, 4:45 AM
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Originally Posted by isaidso View Post
That has zero bearing. Teams that are contenders get on national tv, teams out of the playoff picture do not. It has nothing to do with Canada.
Actually it does have bearing. National television contracts in the US (regardless of who's playing in a given game) are split evenly amongst MLB teams. FOX and ESPN are naturally inclined to air New York and Boston games but Kansas City and Milwaukee still benefit from the shared revenue. Adding more Canadian teams doesn't add to MLB valuations when negotiating with the US broadcasters in the same way adding new American markets does. The Sportsnet deal with the Blue Jays is a local contract -- the (relatively paltry) $40 million or so the Blue Jays bring goes to them alone not the rest of MLB.

I could imagine a scenario in which the big Canadian broadcasters start adding more value to MLB's bottom line. But as it stands there's no incentive to bring on more Canadian teams.

Last edited by Barnard's Star; May 10, 2014 at 4:59 AM.
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  #1488  
Old Posted May 10, 2014, 5:07 AM
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Originally Posted by isaidso View Post
That has zero bearing. Teams that are contenders get on national tv, teams out of the playoff picture do not. It has nothing to do with Canada.
When the Jays are 'in it' again, ESPN will grudgingly feature them on Sunday Night Baseball or some other venue > they have to, right? But when that happens, ESPN takes a serious financial hit thus my use of the word 'grudgingly.' There's no local audience for the Blue Jays as there's no ESPN Canada. There's also no national audience for the Jays in the US, so they're left with the local audience for the opposing team only. That means less revenue and that's why it doesn't happen. Ratings, ratings, ratings > that's all ESPN cares about.

What bearing does that have on expansion to Canada? Not sure, to be frank. I just happen to think there's no market for another team in Canada. I mean, I'd say the same thing about MLB in the US. The market's tapped. Montreal? Perhaps. Vancouver? Not likely, though they do support the Jays really well on their trips out to Seattle.
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  #1489  
Old Posted May 10, 2014, 5:11 AM
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Originally Posted by The S'toon Goon View Post
I understand espn calling the shots, but if say the Expos come back and another team gets added in Vancouver maybe tsn becomes inclined to dish out some money for the rights. Even if espn doesn't care about Canadian teams I don't think MLB would care if tsn is paying the bills so-to-speak.

I don't think that the Canadian TV market is capped out with the Jays, but maybe that is the way MLB sees it?
You're right. TSN would love a team in Montreal and would shell out big bucks to be their official broadcaster. And that money would be thrown into the MLB pot, so expansion to Montreal wouldn't be without its advantages. Beyond that, dunno...
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  #1490  
Old Posted May 10, 2014, 5:16 AM
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Originally Posted by artvandelay View Post
Haven't really seen this decline in baseball that's being talked about. The Jays in the past couple years are more popular than ever, at least in western Canada. This is evidenced by the ratings they bring in, which are usually on par with the CFL.
hmmm.. I know of no one in Saskatchewan that watches/talks about/or cares about Blue Jays baseball.. the Jays' Brett Lawrie being from BC maybe draws more interest in the West than otherwise would normally be, but we can safely say CFL and Rider Nation is WAY more popular in Saskatchewan.
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  #1491  
Old Posted May 10, 2014, 8:00 AM
elly63 elly63 is offline
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Originally Posted by isaidso View Post
That's not a good way of gauging this. Soccer has huge participation rates amongst our youth. That hasn't historically translated into support for pro soccer. Canadians tend to gravitate to the established domestic pro sports when they become adults.
Never a truer word spoken. It's what I call the conundrum. Compared to soccer and basketball, far fewer kids play baseball and football and yet they are much more popular as spectator properties. Only hockey seems to match participation rates with viewer audiences.

Amongst younger fans there seems to be some myth that basketball and soccer in this country started with the Raptors and TFC. I played both over 40 years ago and they were popular then but as participation sports not viewing properties, relatively little has changed (regarding viewership). In the 70s the NASL had huge international stars: Pele, Cruyff, Beckenbauer and pundits claimed how the world sport would "take over" North America. Didn't happen then, won't happen now. Why, I don't really know, but tradition seems hard to overcome for sports properties that were not traditionally part of viewing fare in the distant past.

Yes, the Raptors drew better numbers in their short playoff run, but next year when the season opens will they be getting 54k for their season opener, as they did previously, or 800k. I think it will be closer to the 54 than the 800. it's long term growth we are looking for and it just doesn't seem to be happening. As I quoted with my FIFA U19 example, any event can capture the imagination and large numbers, but can that sustain growth?

Another conundrum, the "stodgy" traditional sport of baseball is probably the best social media marketer out there. mlb.com has done a fantastic job (and probably the best) of getting cool clips out there to their audience, and communicating to that audience. Don't take my word for it, though, look it up for yourself.

Last edited by elly63; May 10, 2014 at 9:57 AM.
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  #1492  
Old Posted May 10, 2014, 10:14 AM
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Originally Posted by isaidso View Post
That's not a good way of gauging this. Soccer has huge participation rates amongst our youth. That hasn't historically translated into support for pro soccer. Canadians tend to gravitate to the established domestic pro sports when they become adults.
True to a point. But at least in this area (Ottawa-Gatineau) there is very, very little baseball talk around the water cooler. In Ottawa the Jays are probably equal to the Raptors *before* the playoff run and only slightly above MLS. In Gatineau neither the Jays nor the Raptors are on the radar (and MLB and NBA generally even less) and are far below the Alouettes and the MLS Impact even.

Of course this area including Ottawa to large degree were traditionally Expos country and so there was a big ''switch off'' of baseball that happened when they left that the sport has never recovered from. This phenomenon is present everywhere from Ottawa going eastwards in Canada, and includes much of Atlantic Canada as well.
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  #1493  
Old Posted May 10, 2014, 10:25 AM
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Originally Posted by isaidso View Post
The Lower Mainland is Canada's baseball factory. It produces this countries baseball talent and the sport has cultural relevance with the Canadian born population. MLB will land in Vancouver. It's more a matter of 'when' than 'if' imo.

It's hard to see Edmonton and Calgary in that light, but both will be vastly different cities by 2035. Not only will they be larger markets than a number of cities with MLB by then, but they'll also be vastly wealthier. Size matters, but money ends up deciding lots of things.

As these Alberta cities grow in stature and size vs. their north American counter parts, locals will increasingly feel that they should be part of the mix. Baseball is part of our culture. The development of the sport across Canada is something we should embrace.
Good point about the growth of Canada's cities. When I was a kid and a sports fan growing up in the Ottawa area it seemed like cities that were in the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL like Buffalo, New Orleans and Milwaukee were all so much bigger than Ottawa but lo and behold Ottawa-Gatineau is now as big or even bigger than these guys and a few others that are in the bigs down in the States. This is true of Calgary and Edmonton as well.
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  #1494  
Old Posted May 10, 2014, 11:51 AM
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Originally Posted by Acajack View Post
Of course this area including Ottawa to large degree were traditionally Expos country and so there was a big ''switch off'' of baseball that happened when they left that the sport has never recovered from. This phenomenon is present everywhere from Ottawa going eastwards in Canada, and includes much of Atlantic Canada as well.
Speaking as someone from "eastwards" I very much disagree. My 25 year old nephew and his friends are very into baseball, how and why, I know not. Part of that "social media generation" that MLB has very much tapped into.

I have to say I have run into relatively few easterners who are Red Sox fans according to the oft stated myth. Yes, there are some, mostly from the days before the Expos and Jays, and also from when the Red Sox were broadcast on local cable TV but the Jays have pretty much superseded that.

I think the young people I mentioned are very typical of the area, the Raps are fairly invisible to them as viewers (aside from the swag culture perhaps) and TFC is totally non existent. I think their following of basketball is married to March Madness and that pretty much seems to include a team that is the favourite for that year not a long withstanding favourite team. Much to my chagrin they flock to the NFL and are dismissive of the CFL about which I often argue with them . Again, I think that is more of a social thing and the wrongly perceived (brainwashed) quality of the ball.

Last edited by elly63; May 10, 2014 at 12:12 PM.
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  #1495  
Old Posted May 10, 2014, 12:07 PM
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  #1496  
Old Posted May 10, 2014, 12:19 PM
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Originally Posted by elly63 View Post
Speaking as someone from "eastwards" I very much disagree. My 25 year old nephew and his friends are very into baseball, how and why, I know not. Part of that "social media generation" that MLB has very much tapped into.

I have to say I have run into relatively few easterners who are Red Sox fans according to the oft stated myth. Yes, there are some, mostly from the days before the Expos and Jays, and also from when the Red Sox were broadcast on local cable TV but the Jays have pretty much superseded that.

I think the young people I mentioned are very typical of the area, the Raps are fairly invisible to them as viewers (aside from the swag culture perhaps) and TFC is totally non existent. I think their following of basketball is married to March Madness and that pretty much seems to include a team that is the favourite for that year not a long withstanding favourite team. Much to my chagrin they flock to the NFL and are dismissive of the CFL about which I often argue with them . Again, I think that is more of a social thing and the wrongly perceived (brainwashed) quality of the ball.
Regarding baseball, I assume you are talking about Maritimers and not Quebecers...
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  #1497  
Old Posted May 10, 2014, 1:23 PM
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Regarding baseball, I assume you are talking about Maritimers and not Quebecers...
I am yes, the east.
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  #1498  
Old Posted May 13, 2014, 4:23 AM
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The NY Times has put together a map showing the favourite NBA team in every county of the US and Canada:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...50.266,-83.477

If you need more proof that Raptors fever is strictly an Ontario phenomenon, this is it.
Montreal? Winnipeg? Calgary? Edmonton? Vancouver? Raptors aren't even top 3.
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  #1499  
Old Posted May 13, 2014, 4:39 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kirjtc2 View Post
The NY Times has put together a map showing the favourite NBA team in every county of the US and Canada:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...50.266,-83.477

If you need more proof that Raptors fever is strictly an Ontario phenomenon, this is it.
Montreal? Winnipeg? Calgary? Edmonton? Vancouver? Raptors aren't even top 3.
That map just kinda proves that basketball is the most bandwagon sport in North America.

Also, I like the Raptors! Can't imagine cheering for a team in another country, although I've never been out to Toronto and have been all over the US west coast.
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  #1500  
Old Posted May 13, 2014, 10:34 AM
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Originally Posted by kirjtc2 View Post
The NY Times has put together a map showing the favourite NBA team in every county of the US and Canada:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...50.266,-83.477

If you need more proof that Raptors fever is strictly an Ontario phenomenon, this is it.
Montreal? Winnipeg? Calgary? Edmonton? Vancouver? Raptors aren't even top 3.
In some of these areas the number of likes this is based on must be miniscule.
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