Ottawa-Gatineau Housing Market

[ars]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

$100K personal income is NOT middle class. That's rich. Making that much means you're in the wealthiest 5% of the country.

The average Canadian makes $36k a year.

My dad made over $100k before he got laid off, I can definitely tell you that we weren't rich, not in this economy.

A lot of people in my company make $100k+, but I'd consider only a handful of them to be on the high end of upper middle class and I wouldn't classify any of them as being "rich".

[Boxster]

What would you guys/gals consider a good retirement income?

Given house paid, kids independant, no work related costs.

Do you think you could live comfortably on $40K a year?

[Jamaican-Phoenix]

Originally Posted by Boxster

What would you guys/gals consider a good retirement income?

Given house paid, kids independant, no work related costs.

Do you think you could live comfortably on $40K a year?

Personally? No. Something like 50-60K a year would be more ideal for the following reasons:

-increasing costs of medicine
-treatment, hospitalizations, etc.
-assume still able to drive, so car-related costs. Go up for each vehicle.
-house troubles (pests, flooding, damage/repairs, etc.)
-inflation drives the cost of everything up.

[gjhall]

We are super off-topic, but let me blow your minds: http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Boxster

What would you guys/gals consider a good retirement income?

Given house paid, kids independant, no work related costs.

Do you think you could live comfortably on $40K a year?

Lot’ s of factors to consider so almost impossible to answer with a magic number. Are you talking $40,000 in today’s dollars or a inflation protected pension?

Current income is an important consideration. If pre-retirement income is $200K it is probably not nearly enough if it’s $50K you could probably live on $30,000.

Travel and personal care are two things that can quickly eat up a fixed income. Your estimate of your desire/need for these will be important.

[phil235]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

In terms of Real Estate family income is what is important. In Toronto even above $200K per family we are talking about a lot of families. In 2011 (would certainly be higher now) about 130,000 couples in Toronto made more than $200K (out of 1.3 Million couples (including where only one person works) so that is top 10% which is certainly upper middle class but I wouldn't say rich.

For comparison in Ottawa the ratio is even higher at 12% of couples making more than $200K.

Where is that statistic coming from? Seems high to me, but Ottawa does have a very high average income.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by phil235

Where is that statistic coming from? Seems high to me, but Ottawa does have a very high average income.

StatsCan’s site lets you break down income bands by hundreds of variables including family composition, city etc.

http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/home-accueil?lang=eng

It is easy to use and takes a few minutes to drill down and get what you are looking for.

e.g.

In 2011 in Ottawa CMA (Ontario part) there were 215,000 couple families (a couple living at the same address with or without children)

Making more than
$100,000 there were 115,900
$150,000 there were 59,640
$200,000 there were 26,740
$250,000 there were 12,750
Median total income $106,230

I was surprised Ottawa had more $200K+ than Toronto too. I would guess $300K+ is much more common in Toronto.

[phil235]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

StatsCan’s site lets you break down income bands by hundreds of variables including family composition, city etc.

http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/home-accueil?lang=eng

It is easy to use and takes a few minutes to drill down and get what you are looking for.

e.g.

In 2011 in Ottawa CMA (Ontario part) there were 215,000 couple families (a couple living at the same address with or without children)

Making more than
$100,000 there were 115,900
$150,000 there were 59,640
$200,000 there were 26,740
$250,000 there were 12,750
Median total income $106,230

I was surprised Ottawa had more $200K+ than Toronto too. I would guess $300K+ is much more common in Toronto.

Thanks for that. Very interesting numbers.

I think you are right about Toronto having far more on the very high end.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Boxster

What would you guys/gals consider a good retirement income?

Given house paid, kids independant, no work related costs.

Do you think you could live comfortably on $40K a year?

If you got rid of your cars, then yes, it should be fine. I currently make $41k a year and that's enough to pay all my living expenses plus have almost $10k a year left over to save. I live modestly, take transit (no car), bargain hunt for groceries, and don't travel.

[canabiz]

Damn, this is not pretty

The number of new homes under construction fell drastically in April as builders reacted to plummeting demand for condominium units.

According to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC), homebuilders began construction on 253 new residential units in April, down 50.9 per cent from the 515 they began building during the same month in 2013.

Almost all of that drop can be attributed to reduced condominium construction. CMHC said builders only began construction on 34 apartment units, which includes condominiums. In April 2013, builders started construction on a total of 301 apartment units.

“I can tell you that 85 per cent to 90 per cent of the apartments are condomiums,” said Sandra Pérez-Torres, senior market analyst with CMHC. “We have had so many apartment starts in the last two years. The market is just cooling down now. We’re seeing so few starts that it’s just cooling the whole market.”

A similar pattern is being seen in the resale market for the once white-hot condominium scene. So far this year, 823 condominiums have been sold, down 9.7 per cent from the 911 condo units sold during the first four months of 2013.

Read rest of article in the link below.

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/business/Condominium+market+slumps+Ottawa+April/9819611/story.html

[JM1]

Oddly enough, house prices are at a new peak in Ottawa. The condo boom is coming to an end. There will be a lot of projects that will be halted.

What happens to housing is the next question.

Originally Posted by canabiz

Damn, this is not pretty

The number of new homes under construction fell drastically in April as builders reacted to plummeting demand for condominium units.

According to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC), homebuilders began construction on 253 new residential units in April, down 50.9 per cent from the 515 they began building during the same month in 2013.

Almost all of that drop can be attributed to reduced condominium construction. CMHC said builders only began construction on 34 apartment units, which includes condominiums. In April 2013, builders started construction on a total of 301 apartment units.

“I can tell you that 85 per cent to 90 per cent of the apartments are condomiums,” said Sandra Pérez-Torres, senior market analyst with CMHC. “We have had so many apartment starts in the last two years. The market is just cooling down now. We’re seeing so few starts that it’s just cooling the whole market.”

A similar pattern is being seen in the resale market for the once white-hot condominium scene. So far this year, 823 condominiums have been sold, down 9.7 per cent from the 911 condo units sold during the first four months of 2013.

Read rest of article in the link below.

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/business/Condominium+market+slumps+Ottawa+April/9819611/story.html

[phil235]

Originally Posted by JM1

Oddly enough, house prices are at a new peak in Ottawa. The condo boom is coming to an end. There will be a lot of projects that will be halted.

What happens to housing is the next question.

The CMHC forecast is for single family housing to be pretty stable and rows and townhouses to show modest growth over the next few years. Yes, apartments are forecast to be down, but that is from a few record years. They are projected to remain well above historical averages.

[canabiz]

I just hope the Fed doesn't cut any more public servants job or take any drastic cost-cutting measures...I do agree with TOExpat earlier, this is primarily a government town...there are some bright spots in the hi-tech scene (Shopify, General Dynamics, Mitel etc) but suffice to say, it's nowhere the same as 1999 where Nortel and JDS Uniphase practically gave jobs to anyone off the street.

I guess the provincial election in a month's time and to a bigger extent the federal election in 15 months are something to keep an eye out for. I don't think the interest rates will go up anytime soon.

[acottawa]

Sort of makes you wonder who is going to shop at all these new/bigger shopping malls, drink at all these new brew pubs, etc.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by canabiz

I just hope the Fed doesn't cut any more public servants job or take any drastic cost-cutting measures...I do agree with TOExpat earlier, this is primarily a government town...there are some bright spots in the hi-tech scene (Shopify, General Dynamics, Mitel etc) but suffice to say, it's nowhere the same as 1999 where Nortel and JDS Uniphase practically gave jobs to anyone off the street.

I guess the provincial election in a month's time and to a bigger extent the federal election in 15 months are something to keep an eye out for. I don't think the interest rates will go up anytime soon.

It is not just cuts that are a concern. The slowing/freeze in hiring is almost more devastating to the condo market. I own a few rentals and 5 years ago could always count on hordes of new grads making $60K+ just starting a government job to be eager for $1500 a month condos. That has dried up. The rental market is brutal right now especially in this medium price range.

[phil235]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

It is not just cuts that are a concern. The slowing/freeze in hiring is almost more devastating to the condo market. I own a few rentals and 5 years ago could always count on hordes of new grads making $60K+ just starting a government job to be eager for $1500 a month condos. That has dried up. The rental market is brutal right now especially in this medium price range.

That's right. The budget freeze is continuing for at least a year or two more, which will impact hiring dramatically. That is the biggest drag on the market here.

[canabiz]

Tim Hudak promises to eliminate 100K public servants (provincial) job, if elected.

I know Ottawa does not have as many provincial public servants as federal or municipal but this does not sound very re-assuring, at least for the housing market. There will no doubt be a ripple effect, if that comes to fruition.

[McC]

The pledge seems to include teachers, health care workers, etc., as well, so it would cover everywhere.

[theoldv]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Sort of makes you wonder who is going to shop at all these new/bigger shopping malls, drink at all these new brew pubs, etc.

the 100k+ public servants in ottawa? the countless federal pensioners? the 60k university students?

this isn't detroit.

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by canabiz

Tim Hudak promises to eliminate 100K public servants (provincial) job, if elected.

I know Ottawa does not have as many provincial public servants as federal or municipal but this does not sound very re-assuring, at least for the housing market. There will no doubt be a ripple effect, if that comes to fruition.

100K public servants... like... politicians maybe? How about CEO of crown corporation making big "performance" bonuses when they're actually in a huge hole? How about the decision makers that couldn't come up with a good idea if it bit them in the ass?

As for the NCC moving back to Wellington; the 2011 move to WEP was only temporary during renovations of the other building.