Expo Line - Surrey Langley Extension: Planning & Pre-Construction

[nname]

As I posted above, using the June 2011 stat as a generalization is pretty much like using the stat from Feb 2010 - its obviously inflated.

I think a good estimation to convert annual to weekday ridership is to divide the annual number by 320-340. Canada line estimate should be closer to the high end though, as the line is busier on the weekend than the typical transit lines.

[logicbomb]

Originally Posted by xd_1771

I've been in constant contact with Surrey staff and other people involved about this and there's already a plan being moved forward to construct a stop on the near-side of the HOV ramps at an estimated cost of $300,000 for the full package (accessible stop + shelters + lighting, etc). It's just a matter of funding.

The conceptualized designs back in 2008 showed a pull-in/pull-out lane for Transit vehicles. The current design does not include that feature. Though I will admit, it's not a big issue at the moment.

[logan5]

Originally Posted by nname

The boarding for all 3 SkyTrain lines combined for that month is about 1 to 1.5 million above average for typical summer months Apr to Aug. It was the month with second-most riders ever for the system, behind Feb 2010, obviously. The third-highest was a few months later at Oct 2011, and the boarding count was more than 500k lower.

(Source)

Canuck play-off games generate a lot of ridership. The home games would generate far more than away games (there were still people gravitating downtown during away games), but the average for the 7 games in June 2011 would be 143 000 to 214 000 extra boardings on game days. The home games, and especially game 7 must have been generating close to 300 000 extra boardings per home game day.

The Canada Line share of that would be around 1/4, so the June 2011 weekday ridership should read about 10 000 less.

[paradigm4]

Re: Canada Line stats, Metro Vancouver has the numbers: http://metrovancouver.org/about/publications/Publications/TransitRidership.pdf

They have the Canada Line separate from SkyTrain (Expo and Millennium).

System Boardings for 2012:
SkyTrain = 79.6 million
Canada Line = 40.8 million

Over 365 days, that's 117,000 for Canada Line and 218,000 for SkyTrain.

[Vonny]

Originally Posted by paradigm4

Re: Canada Line stats, Metro Vancouver has the numbers: http://metrovancouver.org/about/publications/Publications/TransitRidership.pdf

They have the Canada Line separate from SkyTrain (Expo and Millennium).

System Boardings for 2012:
SkyTrain = 79.6 million
Canada Line = 40.8 million

Over 365 days, that's 117,000 for Canada Line and 218,000 for SkyTrain.

the general rule, when you want get daily ridership from annual one, is to count weekend days as half week days, so that weekday daily ridership= annual ridership/(~310)

in any case, this document gives you the detail break down
http://www.translink.ca/~/media/Document...port%20on%20Ridership%20%20Revenues.ashx

(that is the document used at the time to design the line specification, ridership numbers which have been heavily criticized to be overly optimistic, as example, see http://www.policyalternatives.ca/sites/default/files/uploads/publications/BC_Office_Pubs/rav.pdf )

You will see that in fact the Canada line ridership was already exceeding the projection done for 2021, by 2012 (but level of service is still at the 2012 target). daily ridership projection done in 2003 was

Halcrow/Tsi(2003) | PTV(2008)
2010: 83,700
2011:95,000
2012:111,600
2014: | 119,300
2021:130,060 | 134,300

They mismatch with the 2006 projection given by nname, (so I am interested to know the source for the 2006 ones)

[Rico]

Originally Posted by Vonny

the general rule, when you want get daily ridership from annual one, is to count weekend days as half week days, so that weekday daily ridership= annual ridership/(~310)

in any case, this document gives you the detail break down
http://www.translink.ca/~/media/Document...port%20on%20Ridership%20%20Revenues.ashx

(that is the document used at the time to design the line specification, ridership numbers which have been heavily criticized to be overly optimistic, as example, see http://www.policyalternatives.ca/sites/default/files/uploads/publications/BC_Office_Pubs/rav.pdf )

You will see that in fact the Canada line ridership was already exceeding the projection done for 2021, by 2012 (but level of service is still at the 2012 target). daily ridership projection done in 2003 was

Halcrow/Tsi(2003) | PTV(2008)
2010: 83,700
2011:95,000
2012:111,600
2014: | 119,300
2021:130,060 | 134,300

They mismatch with the 2006 projection given by nname, (so I am interested to know the source for the 2006 ones)

Interesting the peak demand forecast was only 5300pphpd in the report.

[logicbomb]

The 96 will see a 20% reduction (frequencies at 10min peak/15min off peak before 7:30am and after 8:45pm) in service come April, with 2 stops added in each direction. Also appears as if Surrey is losing the articulated buses.

Perhaps time to reconsider whether or not an LRT system is the best alternative? Or would it suffer a similar fate?

[GlassCity]

To me this just proves Surrey isn't ready for mass transit. While it has a very high population, it's also spread out over a very large area, so at the end of the day it's still a sprawling low-density suburb, despite the plans and potential to turn it into a real city (which I do believe will happen eventually).

While obviously the B-Line is still a bus and rail-based transit would yield better results, I think they'd still underperform. At this point I think that Skytrain would be a convenience, rather than an absolute necessity as it is on Broadway right now (note that I think the Broadway extension should have been built before the Evergreen Line). After the Evergreen Line is completed in 2016, and the Broadway Line sometime in the early 20's, Surrey will probably be the number 1 priority at that point, and will undoubtedly have become much more urban and dense to the point that it would be able to support a Skytrain extension.

[nname]

Originally Posted by logicbomb

The 96 will see a 20% reduction (frequencies at 10min peak/15min off peak before 7:30am and after 8:45pm) in service come April, with 2 stops added in each direction. Also appears as if Surrey is losing the articulated buses.

It would be mixed artic and standard buses, like the 97.

[AverageJoe]

Don't think I've seen this posted yet...

TransLink Surrey Rapid Transit Study... Narrows it to four options.
http://www.translink.ca/en/Plans-and-Pro...Projects/Surrey-Rapid-Transit-Study.aspx

[Jebby]

Originally Posted by AverageJoe

Don't think I've seen this posted yet...

TransLink Surrey Rapid Transit Study... Narrows it to four options.
http://www.translink.ca/en/Plans-and-Pro...Projects/Surrey-Rapid-Transit-Study.aspx

Here's the graphic from the page

[Henbo]

Originally Posted by AverageJoe

TransLink Surrey Rapid Transit Study... Narrows it to four options.
http://www.translink.ca/en/Plans-and-Pro...Projects/Surrey-Rapid-Transit-Study.aspx

Interesting how Surrey is pushing so hard for LRT, even though Skytrain
could give over twice as many new riders at the same capital cost.

[Meraki]

Originally Posted by Henbo

Interesting how Surrey is pushing so hard for LRT, even though Skytrain
could give over twice as many new riders at the same capital cost.

The LRT would see two lines for Surrey versus an RRT that serves Langley, that probably has something to do with it.

[jsbertram]

I was surprised to see that LRT1 (LRT on all 3 routes + BRT from Newton to White Rock) and RRT1a (RRT on Fraser Hwy + LRT on 2 other routes) were the same estimated capital cost, and nearly the same estimated annual operating cost.

However, LRT1 had the lowest estimated daily boardings and RRT1a the highest, and LRT1 had the lowest estimated daily new riders and RRT1a the highest (twice that of LRT1).


My guess is that LRT will be built on 104th, and King George to Newton, and BRT from Newton to White Rock. When costs escalate (we know they will), the Fraser Hwy LRT will be dropped entirely or changed to BRT.

By 2035, Fraser Hwy will get SkyTrain extended from King George station - not all the way to Langley, but more likely half-way there (160th or 168th) as Phase I, with Phase II to Langley by 2050.


In all of these discussions, I've heard very little about how (or if) Delta will be getting BRT /LRT /RRT that might tie into what Surrey is doing.

[SFUVancouver]

I'm still firmly in RRT 1a camp. BRT along 104 and King George Blvd to White Rock will provide a single seat ride and retain the flexibility to detour from the main street into the adjacent bus loop (Newton and the South Surrey Park and Ride, in particular) and potentially additional ones built along the corridor in the 'deep south' of the region en route to White Rock. The extension of the Expo Line to Langley City creates a one-seat ride all the way across our region and a whole lot of high quality tie-in points for local bus service (effectively every north-south street of consequence will have a SkyTrain station, bus loop, and ideally a kiss & ride/taxi loop).

I would add that the BRT corridor would allow incremental upgrade to street level LRT as demand warrants in the future.


Source: http://www.translink.ca/~/media/document...y_%20alternatives_analysis_findings.ashx

[GlassCity]

I still think Fraser Highway and Guildford should be one line and to Newton and White Rock the other. All RRT of course.

[jsbertram]

I'm wondering where the OMC will be put if Surrey chooses LRT?
Land along King George, Fraser Hwy and 104th ain't cheap.

[makr3trkr]

Originally Posted by GlassCity

I still think Fraser Highway and Guildford should be one line and to Newton and White Rock the other. All RRT of course.

I agree 100% that RRT, preferably Skytrain, would be best along Fraser Highway.

*However* tens of thousands of home owners and many, many businesses along Fraser Highway would be affected, so who knows if it would be litigated.

[GlassCity]

Originally Posted by makr3trkr

I agree 100% that RRT, preferably Skytrain, would be best along Fraser Highway.

*However* tens of thousands of home owners and many, many businesses along Fraser Highway would be affected, so who knows if it would be litigated.

Well I know it's a non-starter, but I personally would like it underground. And going even farther into the impossible opinions, I don't think rail transit is needed at all for a long time still.

[Pinion]

They live on Fraser highway. They should be able to handle RRT going by. I mean my street has forced setbacks for the condos on the south side for 50 years from now when the north shore gets RRT and it's not even as busy or a truck route.