Metro Vancouver Transit Discussion

[nname]

Downtown Bus Service Review

I found the Downtown bus route proposal interesting. All options would eliminate #C23 and extend trolley overhead and route #6 into Yaletown.

[xd_1771]

http://www.translink.ca/~/media/document...nd_financial_and_performance_report.ashx

2013 TransLink year-end financial report is out. Nearly $50 million in surplus, and it's been announced that SkyTrain will be returning to 3/6 minute weekend frequencies (yay! Saturdays were getting horrible when 4-car Mk I trains were around :s)

[WarrenC12]

Good news. Not so good, another $40M lost on the GEB for a total of over $150M to date.

[Rico]

Not a surprise but with the previous service cuts ridership in 2013 declined. Lets hope we can line up some funding and get a reversal.....

[nname]

^ Ridership declined by 2% in 2013, the first ever decline since the strike in 2001. Fare revenue, however, rose by 7.6% due to the fare increase. Operating cost recovery increased to 55.4%.

Interesting that the reliability of WCE last year was 100.3%. Not sure what that suppose to mean...

[Meraki]

Originally Posted by xd_1771

http://www.translink.ca/~/media/document...nd_financial_and_performance_report.ashx

2013 TransLink year-end financial report is out.

What a surprise the operating cost per km for the Canada Line is almost double the other two lines. $0.251 vs. $0.130. Must be all those private sector "efficiencies."

When you then factor in the Canada Line running at a higher utilized capacity it's 380% higher per km than Expo and Millennium.

[nname]

The Canada Line operating cost includes the repayment of the capital contribution by private sector. This includes the 720M principal, interest, plus whatever profit the private sector gets, on top of the actual operating cost.

[bardak]

Originally Posted by Meraki

What a surprise the operating cost per km for the Canada Line is almost double the other two lines. $0.251 vs. $0.130. Must be all those private sector "efficiencies."

When you then factor in the Canada Line running at a higher utilized capacity it's 380% higher per km than Expo and Millennium.

Anyone who has looked at the rational around the PPP knows that it basicly moved what would have been some debt payments into operating expenses.

[Rico]

Originally Posted by Meraki

What a surprise the operating cost per km for the Canada Line is almost double the other two lines. $0.251 vs. $0.130. Must be all those private sector "efficiencies."

When you then factor in the Canada Line running at a higher utilized capacity it's 380% higher per km than Expo and Millennium.

I definitely don't want to defend this P3 but Translink is trying to pay off that debt (with a higher interest rate than they would have been able to get for themselves) as fast as possible so they are accelerating debt payments....so that makes the numbers look worse than they are. It still boggles my mind that anyone thinks it is a good idea to have the private sector contribute financing when government can get significantly lower interest rates (and at the end of the day it is still government debt).

[SFUVancouver]

P3s make a ton of sense when you monetize the risk. Consider the possibility of a design flaw in the Canada Line that only comes to light several years into operation; the P3 operator would have to absorb the cost of repair/replacement in order to ensure it meets it concessionaire contract. Being responsible for that operating risk is a strong motivator for the P3 Concessionaire to make smart choices during the design and specification phases and prioritize reliability and durability.

[Vonny]

Originally Posted by bardak

Anyone who has looked at the rational around the PPP knows that it basicly moved what would have been some debt payments into operating expenses.

yes.
both Translink/InTransitBC (Canada line operator) don't provide numbers enabling direct operating cost comparison with other transit system.

But you can compare the things on a whole life cycle (debt service+operating cost).

in fact the Canada line do pretty well at $4.30 per trip in line with the skytrain.


See numbers in this spreadsheet (also of interest, note the canada line cars productivity vs skytrain ones in line 140 of the 'operations' sheet).

[aberdeen5698]

Originally Posted by Vonny

note the canada line cars productivity vs skytrain ones in line 140 of the 'operations' sheet).

A few comments regarding this:

a) The fact that the Skytrain cars are smaller is countered by the fact that the Skytrain stations are longer.

b) Productivity of Skytrain cars is impacted by comparatively low ridership on the Millenium line - this will likely change with the opening of the Evergreen line.

c) High productivity can also be caused by insufficient capacity due to lack or rolling stock or contracted service levels.

[Rico]

Originally Posted by SFUVancouver

P3s make a ton of sense when you monetize the risk. Consider the possibility of a design flaw in the Canada Line that only comes to light several years into operation; the P3 operator would have to absorb the cost of repair/replacement in order to ensure it meets it concessionaire contract. Being responsible for that operating risk is a strong motivator for the P3 Concessionaire to make smart choices during the design phase and prioritize reliability and durability.

While I have mixed feelings about P3s I understand where a well writen P3 agreement could be superior. My comments were specifically about the financing aspect which should never be superior to government borrowing (if it is fine use it but fat chance of that ever happening....and a pretty big warning flag for the government that can't get better financing than the private sector).

[WarrenC12]

Regarding debt, didn't BC Transit take ~$900M in Expo Line Long-term Debt when Translink was formed?

Skytrain has proven to be operationally profitable, but there's a huge capital cost to getting a line up and running. Unfortunately this is the most visible part of any government spending, when really it should be the other way around.

All that said, if P3s aresuch no-brainers from the side of private industry, why didn't it work for the PMB? The government had no takers.

[Zassk]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Regarding debt, didn't BC Transit take ~$900M in Expo Line Long-term Debt when Translink was formed?

This was my understanding as well. So the Expo Line was essentially "free" to TransLink, but was definitely not free of actual long-term debt. Those Expo Line debt repayments would look very similar to the debt repayments for the Canada Line.

[SFUVancouver]

Originally Posted by Rico

While I have mixed feelings about P3s I understand where a well writen P3 agreement could be superior. My comments were specifically about the financing aspect which should never be superior to government borrowing (if it is fine use it but fat chance of that ever happening....and a pretty big warning flag for the government that can't get better financing than the private sector).

Very true about the cost of capital being higher for the private sector versus the public sector in our part of the world. If you were to do a project in, say South Africa, where the cost of capital is quite high because the Rand trades poorly against the USD and Euro, in that context a large global private sector P3 partner may well be able to access capital at lower cost than the government. In our case in BC, the BC Muncipal Finance Authority has a AAA, AAA, and AAa credit rating from Fitch, Standard & Poor's, and Moody's, respectively, while the Provincial Treasury has AAA, AAA, and Aaa from the same credit ratings firms. It is exceptionally tough for the private sector to beat the cost of capital that those ratings will garner.

[a very long weekend]

also worth noting is that the functions of the canada vs millenium lines were/are not necessarily the same. whereas a primary function of the millenium line was to guide development along a mixed industrial/future residential/commercial corridor, the canada line's primary function was to service existing population, with an important but secondary growth management function. the cost recovery on the millenium line will always be considered over the long term (50+ years), which is precisely the sort of investment that makes no sense to bring forward as a p3. the canada line, by contrast, even though i personally think it was a 🞵🞵🞵🞵 deal, did make sense as a p3 at the time, for a government that had to spend a lot of money on the olympics stuff.

that said, there should have been way more value capture. like, land around every station should have been eminent domained to minimize government exposure, especially along the cambie corridor where everyone got payouts and that.

[GlassCity]

Originally Posted by a very long weekend

also worth noting is that the functions of the canada vs millenium lines were/are not necessarily the same. whereas a primary function of the millenium line was to guide development along a mixed industrial/future residential/commercial corridor, the canada line's primary function was to service existing population, with an important but secondary growth management function. the cost recovery on the millenium line will always be considered over the long term (50+ years), which is precisely the sort of investment that makes no sense to bring forward as a p3. the canada line, by contrast, even though i personally think it was a 🞵🞵🞵🞵 deal, did make sense as a p3 at the time, for a government that had to spend a lot of money on the olympics stuff.

that said, there should have been way more value capture. like, land around every station should have been eminent domained to minimize government exposure, especially along the cambie corridor where everyone got payouts and that.

Would anybody mind telling me why the Milennium Line was built? I was very young and had just move to Canada when it was completed. Looking at it now it just seems like a really stupid place to put a rapid transit line, and the ridership reflects that.

[SFUVancouver]

Originally Posted by GlassCity

Would anybody mind telling me why the Milennium Line was built?

From Wikipedia:

The Millennium Line opened on January 2, 2002, with trains initially operating between Waterfront Station on the Expo Line and Braid Station in eastern New Westminster - this was referred to as Phase I. Service was extended to Commercial–Broadway Station (then 'Commercial Drive Station'), or Phase II of construction, on September 4, 2002. Lake City Way Station opened on November 21, 2003. Three years later, the line was extended to its present terminus, VCC–Clark Station, opening on January 6, 2006.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Line

[GlassCity]

Originally Posted by SFUVancouver

From Wikipedia:


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Line

I should've been more clear, I mean specifically the part between VCC-Clark and Lougheed. From what I understand now it was just to connect Coquitlam to Vancouver?