Winnipeg Construction VIII

[Simplicity]

Originally Posted by drew

^ that's it, just get it all out now.

Feel better?

At least your post makes it clear where your bias regarding Winnipeg is, and your posts in general.

I know you don't like the sounds of it, but I do development for a living. I deal with banks and other financiers on a daily basis. The overarching opinion of those who are invested in Winnipeg real estate is that all the economics portent less than stellar things and that the market is completely overvalued.

This idea that if we just hope hard enough all of the things that define Winnipeg will go away is kind of childish, no? Why are we trying to build a city into the mould of somewhere else? People are prepared to invest in the city at rates that are justifiable; ones that account for the fact that Winnipeg is at it's peak cycle right now due in large part to very low interest rates and that it's unsustainable in the long run. Why not embrace that instead of demand that people make investments in unsustainable projects so we can all brag about still having 100 year old buildings standing? It doesn't make any sense...

[Simplicity]

Originally Posted by esquire

What if the City gets outfoxed in the end (not an unlikely prospect) and Zaifman ends up demolishing the St. Charles? Then what? Is he going to redevelop the property or simply open up downtown Winnipeg's latest and greatest surface parking lot? My money would have to be on the latter scenario... how many times has something been demolished with promises of some grand redevelopment that never materializes? You could probably list dozens of sites in that category.

I don't see how that new surface lot is a better outcome for the City than the preservation of the St. Charles, even if it takes a longer time to get there than we'd like. What is the upside to removing heritage restrictions and letting people do whatever they want with old buildings?

Besides, why doesn't Zaifman stick with plan A of turning the St. Charles into a boutique hotel? Winnipeg has high room rates and several hotels have already been either newly built (take your pick) or totally gutted/renovated (Holiday Inn on Ellice, Econo Lodges on Notre Dame and Dakota). Between the combination of the happy coincidence (as biguc pointed out) of getting a parking lot next door which was supposedly the only missing piece of the puzzle before, Winnipeg's high room rates and the heritage credits available to a project like this, why can't Zaifman make a hotel work in the same way that so many other new hotels around town appear to be able to?

Well, firstly, everybody needs to relax on the whole surface parking lot idea. Those days are over. Firstly, the city doesn't actually have the power to just unilaterally approve a surface parking lot anymore without going through council so you can imagine the hell that would break loose if this were ever approved. Moreover, the city can very easily attach a caveat to the property (assuming they filed it on time )that would require development permits by a certain time with failure resulting in a transfer of ownership to the city. There are ways around this stuff.

Secondly, Zaifman probably *would* put up a boutique hotel in that space given the opportunity. Hotels generally represent fairly good returns when stocked with bars and VLTs and restaurants, so this wouldn't be out of line with what the market could expect. The issue is that restoring the old building represents too large of a risk. For now, the only hotels in that area don't tend to attract boutique customers and it's at the fringes of the West Exchange, so I'm dubious as to whether the first 5-10 years could pump out the revenue required to service the massive debt that would come along with the development. Over time, maybe; who knows. But that debt service needs to be covered *every* month - not just the successful ones. Why doesn't everybody just relax until they see a redevelopment plan instead of just demanding the old building be remediated. If the city does its job, the new development would have to come to fruition exactly as it was approved...

[Cyro]

A newly renovated Ma Mawi Wi Chi Itata Centre opened today in Point Douglas .

The renovations add nearly 9,000 square feet of drop-in/program space.
-freep

Wasn't aware of this renovation/expansion, at 1.5 M.
Sounds like a much needed addition to the facility and more so to the area in general.

[Cyro]

"Why doesn't everybody just relax until they see a redevelopment plan instead of just demanding the old building be remediated".

People have been patient, very patient, so now he can show us the plan you speak of or move out of the picture if the "risk is to high" to re-mediate the structure. Smart developer yes, does he care, yes about his bottom line and rightly so. Sell the property and he should get a healthy margin on his investment.

All can move on and forward rather than sit on this abandoned and gutted structure.

[Phil's neighbour]

Originally Posted by Cyro

"Why doesn't everybody just relax until they see a redevelopment plan instead of just demanding the old building be remediated".

People have been patient, very patient, so now he can show us the plan you speak of or move out of the picture if the "risk is to high" to re-mediate the structure. Smart developer yes, does he care, yes about his bottom line and rightly so. Sell the property and he should get a healthy margin on his investment.

All can move on and forward rather than sit on this abandoned and gutted structure.

Smart developer? Does Zaifman have any sort of track record for developing? Serious question. Has he built anything, ever? Or is he a smart lawyer who recognizes the obvious: that a building just a short stroll from Portage and Main can turn over a good buck.

[Cyro]

Yes, Real Estate Investor,not developer, although with proper development consultation it may have been possible to use the term. The rest of the post stands as is.

[trueviking]

Originally Posted by Simplicity

Why do people feel like comparing Winnipeg with Toronto and Vancouver are appropriate things to be doing?

Vancouver real estate creeps into $700/sq ft. Toronto sells pre-sale condo units at $630/sq ft. That's because people want to live there. Toronto is one of the most dynamic economies in the world and Vancouver is amongst the most beautiful cities. Can we all just understand the differences once and for all? These are world class cities. Winnipeg is a mess of a city from top to bottom. Our highest value real estate exists on a cul-de-sac somewhere in what used to be a farmers field two years prior, our infrastructure is falling apart due to mismanagement even with some of the highest taxes in the country, we're almost literally shut-into our homes for 6 months of the year, and the *best* thing about the city is that you only have to drive an hour to get out of it! We're a have-not city in a have-not province in the middle of a flood plain that vacillates between arctic tundra and sweaty bog depending on the season and our most notable geographic feature is a prairie sunset you can watch for almost nine hours straight. What exactly are these comparisons based in?

I'm obviously kidding in some respects and I'll reiterate that I don't care for the man, but let's not get too ahead of ourselves. Ken Zaifman bought that relic for a song. In the interim, people have been convinced there's value there he's either not seeing or refusing to acknowledge. There is not. If Ken Zaifman turned around and sold the building tomorrow, he would make money. Quite a bit of it. That value increase would be based upon an incorrect market value generated by hype and poor intrinsic valuation. And then the building would sit for *another* ten years while the next greater fool uncovered all the things he already knew, which is that the building can't be feasibly restored.

Winnipeg has it's limitations. This isn't a new thing. If we were such a desirable city, people with resources would be flocking in and the economics for restoration would naturally fall into line. Instead, we have the same people who push for more investment and a greater focus on downtown being the same people virtually ensuring that the downtown never goes anywhere because of some extremely myopic vision that the city can absolutely only rebuild itself as long as it looked nearly the same as it did in 1908. This is all completely ass-backwards.

Winnipeg has its limitations. That doesn't mean we shouldn't try to leverage our assets to make the conditions better for everyone. The national historic site is a very rare attribute in a city, to simply disregard it is as relics is short sighted. It is an opportunity as a collection to make the urban and economic conditions of the city more prosperous. If zaifman is so gung ho to develop a blank slate, there is one right across the street. His building was cheap because it has heritage restrictions that prevent him from tearing it down. He has to live with that. He doesn't get to do an end around and buy a building for nothing because of those restrictions then claim he cant develop it under those conditions and then tear it down. If he cant develop it, sell it. End of story. The rules are there, just like in every city. They were there when he bought it. Fargo has heritage protection rules too, if you are so averse to comparing Winnipeg to bigger cities.

I agree that we need to be patient. Once the building is gone, the opportunity is lost and the heritage neighbourhood that is one of the few natural advantages that Winnipeg has to leverage over other cities is degraded yet again. Even a new building, if he ever built one would not contribute to that. We can be patient. If it takes ten years to redevelop the building, that fine....but there is no patience for trying to write his own rules and tear it down. Redevelop it or move along. If he can make a profit by selling it, he should.

When you own a heritage building the rules are different, like it or not. The rules are there to prevent short sighted development and promote development that will improve conditions for the common good. If he doesn't want to play the game, nobody is forcing him to.

I'm not sure if you've noticed but people are flocking in to do redevelopment in the area. I have worked in the exchange for 12 years and it has changed completely. It is the fastest growing residential neighbourhood in downtown by a long way. I'm not sure where you are getting this from that there is no development pressure. Its not Vancouver but on a Winnipeg scale, the exchange is the shining light in downtown and it is continuing to grow and prosper. There are several projects still to come. It is completely changed from a decade ago. That is only because of the 'relics'. There is no other reason.

To your suggestion that parking lots are impossible to create I will point you to the grain exchange and the yoga place on Fort...both cried that they needed surface parking to be profitable and both got their parking.

Think big picture my friend...big picture.....the building by building attitude is very Winnipeg....

[trueviking]

Originally Posted by Simplicity

I know you don't like the sounds of it, but I do development for a living.

As a developer, you should understand what creates value and what assets can be leveraged to economic advantage. An intact historic district can be as valuable monetarily to our city as vancouver's sea wall or Edmonton's river valley. It just takes big picture thinking. People are attracted to the exchange district. That is what creates value. That is why development is happening there. The more we allow the area to degrade as a collection the more we degrade the value of the asset. People are attracted to the character of the old neighbourhood. That can not be recreated with new construction.

[steveosnyder]

I don't remember who posted it, but the board of adjustments variance hearing for the Fort Richmond Mall is posted online @ http://www.winnipeg.ca/CLKDMIS/ViewDoc.a...nitUrl=/CLKDMIS/Documents/ba/2014/a13444

[trebor204]

Originally Posted by steveosnyder

I don't remember who posted it, but the board of adjustments variance hearing for the Fort Richmond Mall is posted online @ http://www.winnipeg.ca/CLKDMIS/ViewDoc.a...nitUrl=/CLKDMIS/Documents/ba/2014/a13444

Was about to post it:

They are planning to separate the Safeway from the mall and convert it to a Sobey's

Not sure about the rest of mall, however the plans have them adding more space to the south end of the mall. Could be another big box store.

- Wal-Mart? - are than going to open a new store at Pembina @ Taylor
- Target? - Doesn't Sobeys supply Target grocery's
- Home Depot, Rona? - too close to their locations by Kenaston

[Riverman]

Another small condo building going up on Henderson right beside the one built last year just south of Munroe.

[Cyro]

Originally Posted by Riverman

Another small condo building going up on Henderson right beside the one built last year just south of Munroe.

4 storey River? Haven't been down that way in sometime.

[h0twired]

Originally Posted by Riverman

Another small condo building going up on Henderson right beside the one built last year just south of Munroe.

Are they tearing down the house or building the condo in front of it?

[Simplicity]

Originally Posted by trueviking

As a developer, you should understand what creates value and what assets can be leveraged to economic advantage. An intact historic district can be as valuable monetarily to our city as vancouver's sea wall or Edmonton's river valley. It just takes big picture thinking. People are attracted to the exchange district. That is what creates value. That is why development is happening there. The more we allow the area to degrade as a collection the more we degrade the value of the asset. People are attracted to the character of the old neighbourhood. That can not be recreated with new construction.

The issue has less to do with perceived value than actual value. If Winnipeg is at or close to the supportable peak of its real estate market - something most educated accounts believe - and in a rate environment that is both historically low and totally unsustainable, then when exactly do these assets become more profitable while less expensive to develop? If you can't develop them now at a reasonable return, then how do higher rates and lower real estate prices bear out this intrinsic value you keep referring to? People have yet to be so attracted to these assets that they're willing to pay the prices that justify a developers restoration of them. What is in Winnipeg's - and ultimately Manitoba's - futures that signal the *sustainable* increase in values over today's?

The only thing we do know at this point with any certainty is that a new building - D Condo - is so far fetching the highest price per square foot of any other condo building in the city short of One Wellington. This would, in fact, indicate that people in this city are *less* attracted to restored condos than new ones. But really, who knows. It could be that parking really is that important to the value of a unit...

[Cyro]

Minor addition:
The old Esso Gas Station location between Waterloo/Ash St. on Corydon finally
has a proposal.
2 storey office space. I bring it up only to reinforce the fact that Infill development can be found in every corner of the city on any casual drive.....Positive.

The empty lot's are being filled, slowly but surely.

Location: For those not familiar with the area.
https://maps.google.ca/maps?q=waterloo+s...K_nOwVimNKeEleOhaA&cbp=12,351.91,,0,8.02

[trueviking]

Originally Posted by Simplicity

The issue has less to do with perceived value than actual value. If Winnipeg is at or close to the supportable peak of its real estate market - something most educated accounts believe - and in a rate environment that is both historically low and totally unsustainable, then when exactly do these assets become more profitable while less expensive to develop? If you can't develop them now at a reasonable return, then how do higher rates and lower real estate prices bear out this intrinsic value you keep referring to? People have yet to be so attracted to these assets that they're willing to pay the prices that justify a developers restoration of them. What is in Winnipeg's - and ultimately Manitoba's - futures that signal the *sustainable* increase in values over today's?

The only thing we do know at this point with any certainty is that a new building - D Condo - is so far fetching the highest price per square foot of any other condo building in the city short of One Wellington. This would, in fact, indicate that people in this city are *less* attracted to restored condos than new ones. But really, who knows. It could be that parking really is that important to the value of a unit...

the thing I don't get about your argument is that there are many heritage buildings being redeveloped and many more coming....you make it sound like all these buildings are empty and rotting....only the St. Charles is....if you look at the number of construction projects in the downtown over the past decade I bet a majority of them are heritage redevelopments in the Exchange....the vast majority of new housing has been conversions.....I don't really understand your premise...it doesn't seem to reflect the reality of what's happening....there are lots of developers, including large ones redeveloping.

[1ajs]

Originally Posted by Cyro

A newly renovated Ma Mawi Wi Chi Itata Centre opened today in Point Douglas .

The renovations add nearly 9,000 square feet of drop-in/program space.
-freep

Wasn't aware of this renovation/expansion, at 1.5 M.
Sounds like a much needed addition to the facility and more so to the area in general.

huh?

[Simplicity]

Originally Posted by trueviking

the thing I don't get about your argument is that there are many heritage buildings being redeveloped and many more coming....you make it sound like all these buildings are empty and rotting....only the St. Charles is....if you look at the number of construction projects in the downtown over the past decade I bet a majority of them are heritage redevelopments in the Exchange....the vast majority of new housing has been conversions.....I don't really understand your premise...it doesn't seem to reflect the reality of what's happening....there are lots of developers, including large ones redeveloping.

I'm open to hearing about which of these developments you're regarding as successful. I'm always attaching the caveat to my posts that there are certainly examples of buildings that have been renovated and repurposed in some capacity both at the expense of financial success and the City underwriting the investment, but what are we actually talking about here? I wouldn't regard any of the buildings on Princess as success stories in any capacity. You can't just disregard the fact that the city has to step in and plow money into projects in order to get them done. That's a horrible sign. It's as bad of a situation as you can have. How does this connote success?

My office is also in the Exchange. I've been there since 2003. If there's something I'm missing, I'm all ears.

[1ajs]

Originally Posted by trueviking

the thing I don't get about your argument is that there are many heritage buildings being redeveloped and many more coming....you make it sound like all these buildings are empty and rotting....only the St. Charles is....if you look at the number of construction projects in the downtown over the past decade I bet a majority of them are heritage redevelopments in the Exchange....the vast majority of new housing has been conversions.....I don't really understand your premise...it doesn't seem to reflect the reality of what's happening....there are lots of developers, including large ones redeveloping.

cough cough
only the st charles ummm

banntyne and princes theres a building rotting away

[Riverman]

Originally Posted by h0twired

Are they tearing down the house or building the condo in front of it?

The condo is being built on the front yard of the house where there was once a tennis court. I don't know these people or if they are the old owners but they used to be big ski enthusiasts. They had a ski jump and a slalom course out every summer. The house still has a railway and a boathouse for their towboat.