PITTSBURGH | Development Rundown II

[Brentsters]

I don't see how Settlers Ridge is any better. It actually may be worse since it was just recently built and should have learned planning failures by now.

How many "lifestyle centers" does the parkway west corridor need? What retail are they going to provide that isn't already covered by the Robinson mall/ikea shopping center mess or Settlers Ridge? It's just going to be cannibalization.

And comparisons to the Waterfront don't inspire much confidence. I hope this never happens.

[BrianTH]

That area is not much farther from Downtown than Oakland. You'd think we could do better.

[AaronPGH]

I honestly think retail center plans like these are totally foolish wastes of money at this time. My money is that in just a few more years, Amazon is going to have it's same-day delivery up and running and most of these chain stores are toast.

We're already seeing it with Radio Shack, Staples, etc closing thousands of stores. Book stores are already gone. The suburban-style retail real-estate market is going crash super hard.

[Jonboy1983]

Originally Posted by Brentsters

I don't see how Settlers Ridge is any better. It actually may be worse since it was just recently built and should have learned planning failures by now.

How many "lifestyle centers" does the parkway west corridor need? What retail are they going to provide that isn't already covered by the Robinson mall/ikea shopping center mess or Settlers Ridge? It's just going to be cannibalization.

And comparisons to the Waterfront don't inspire much confidence. I hope this never happens.

Then what would you suggest?

I will give you that after a second glance at Settlers Ridge, that is not very impressive. I will refer back to my suggestion of Hunt Valley, MD though. Not to mention, a LRT line stops right at that complex's doorstep.

I'd even go as far to mention healthcare facilities in addition to commercial/office uses there as well considering there's already a dentist and women's health center nearby.

Face it. That land will be developed. Hopefully they'll design it with pedestrian-friendly open space characteristics in mind. I'm just trying to come up with ideas for some of the appropriate uses for this complex...

[BrianTH]

At some point the West End is going to start taking off, and then I think a reasonably high-value use will emerge. So personally, I wouldn't have a problem letting it lie fallow for a while.

[Gilamonster]

I tend to doubt the West End will "take off" or improve any more than the city is simply improving as a whole, but Kossman Development better hope so if they are planning a new mall. While not the only reason that the mall died, it is pretty well known that the retailers at the old Parkway Center Mall had serious shrinkage problems and I think a significant amount of that merchandise ended up"down the hill".

And AaronPGH, great point. On-line retail has been steadily growing for a while and it will only continue to do so even without Amazon's same day delivery program, but once that kicks in, oh would it be great to be holding a short position in retailers and commercial property owners.

[photoLith]

Originally Posted by AaronPGH

I honestly think retail center plans like these are totally foolish wastes of money at this time. My money is that in just a few more years, Amazon is going to have it's same-day delivery up and running and most of these chain stores are toast.

We're already seeing it with Radio Shack, Staples, etc closing thousands of stores. Book stores are already gone. The suburban-style retail real-estate market is going crash super hard.

I don't know, I buy an awful lot of clothes and shoes and I still like to feel and try on the things I buy before i wear them. I don't think that style of shopping is going anywhere anytime soon. Even with amazon, etc.

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by Gilamonster

I tend to doubt the West End will "take off" or improve any more than the city is simply improving as a whole

But development activity in the city currently is not evenly distributed. For example, there is way more investment going on in most of the East End than the West End.

So if all that happens in the West End is that it starts getting on a more East End-like track, that alone would represent a marked increase in activity.

I really think some sort of change of pace like that is inevitable in the West End (and inner west suburbs), simply because it is all so close to Downtown. And at that point, the idea of doing a shopping mall on one of the biggest available development sites will hopefully seem ridiculous.

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by photoLith

I don't know, I buy an awful lot of clothes and shoes and I still like to feel and try on the things I buy before i wear them. I don't think that style of shopping is going anywhere anytime soon. Even with amazon, etc.

Boutique shopping will probably stick around. But if you can get stuff at your home, try it on, and if necessary return it for free and get new stuff within a day, it will cut into an awful lot of basic clothes and shoe commerce.

[GeneW]

Originally Posted by AaronPGH

I honestly think retail center plans like these are totally foolish wastes of money at this time. My money is that in just a few more years, Amazon is going to have it's same-day delivery up and running and most of these chain stores are toast.

We're already seeing it with Radio Shack, Staples, etc closing thousands of stores. Book stores are already gone. The suburban-style retail real-estate market is going crash super hard.

I agree. I don't see much future in brick-and-mortar retail other than for food and entertainment. I doubt that either my wife or I are in an actually store more than once a month or so at this point. It's just so easy to buy online and such a total pain in the but to even attempt to buy something at a store that we don't even bother anymore.

[SkyPittsburgh]

Speaking of hotels, I have an update from a walk I took in East Liberty.
The Ace Hotel is coming along, they have removed the windows and there seems to be lots of lights on inside. On the flip side, the Hotel Indigo is slowly making progress, they have finally raised the other side of the building to the original height, but it took a while. No progress on the Odeon hotel.

[AaronPGH]

Originally Posted by photoLith

I don't know, I buy an awful lot of clothes and shoes and I still like to feel and try on the things I buy before i wear them. I don't think that style of shopping is going anywhere anytime soon. Even with amazon, etc.

I think there will always be room for some retailers that do stuff like this – mainly clothing. But think about the makeup of stuff in a mall or a shopping center for a minute. What happens if you remove everything that can be replaced with online shopping pretty easily? You have the collapse of the shopping center, regardless of whether or not some clothing stores remain successful. And even then, some people are still swapping out their brick and mortar clothes shopping for online. Most of my friends have (personal anecdote, I know). I only really shop in person at one or two local boutiques these days. The rest is online, and I deal with shipping stupidity to get more unique things.

I think they could build in some longevity by building a large residential/dining/entertainment component. I guess it comes down to whether they're going to do this in a smart fashion or not.

[Austinlee]

Originally Posted by AaronPGH

I honestly think retail center plans like these are totally foolish wastes of money at this time. My money is that in just a few more years, Amazon is going to have it's same-day delivery up and running and most of these chain stores are toast.

We're already seeing it with Radio Shack, Staples, etc closing thousands of stores. Book stores are already gone. The suburban-style retail real-estate market is going crash super hard.

Well, we have had discussions on this thread a long time ago about the cannibalistic nature of retail, suburban retail in particular. eg. Robinson Town Centre being gobbled up by surrounding development at The Pointe (North Fayette retail right next door) + the newer Settler's Ridge development, etc, etc.

It's a fucked up business and even more so fucked up thanks to the US's completely lax development patterns of building on virgin land aided by the tax payer subsidized ever expanding highway system. Honestly, that chicken is gonna come home to roost at some point via massively increased commuter/gas taxes based on how many miles you drive. That should signal a real se change in where suburbanites choose to live and drive.

Honestly, it's a pretty common fantasy of mine to live in a city in England/Mainland Europe or Japan where they actually use their BRAINS to limit uncontrolled sprawl.

*le sigh*

[Austinlee]

Originally Posted by Gilamonster

I tend to doubt the West End will "take off" or improve any more than the city is simply improving as a whole, but Kossman Development better hope so if they are planning a new mall. While not the only reason that the mall died, it is pretty well known that the retailers at the old Parkway Center Mall had serious shrinkage problems and I think a significant amount of that merchandise ended up"down the hill".

And AaronPGH, great point. On-line retail has been steadily growing for a while and it will only continue to do so even without Amazon's same day delivery program, but once that kicks in, oh would it be great to be holding a short position in retailers and commercial property owners.

I personally think the "West End business district" will spur "hip/cool growth within a mile or two around it. BUUUUT, communities such as Sheraden, Ingram, Crafton" whilst having some amazing building stock many times, just don't have very good access to amenities in my opinion. Those areas are the least attractive to re-development IMO.

Think about it. Within the city limits, the East has SO many development and things to do; The north has business districts and historic neighorhoods as well and easy transportation; The South neighborhoods (discounting the southside which is a huge draw unto itself), although you have tunnels connecting many desirable and attractive areas such as Mt Lebanon, etc has a great quality of life AND rail line; But what about the West? There you have some of the worst crime and very few amenities. I'm looking at you: McKees Rocks, Esplen, West End, Sheraden, Ingram, Crafton, Fairywood.


Am I wrong in my assessment? I wish I were.

In addition to low amount of amenities it is also slightly farther from the hot/hip neighborhoods than anywhere else in the city.

[Austinlee]

Originally Posted by AaronPGH

I honestly think retail center plans like these are totally foolish wastes of money at this time. My money is that in just a few more years, Amazon is going to have it's same-day delivery up and running and most of these chain stores are toast.

We're already seeing it with Radio Shack, Staples, etc closing thousands of stores. Book stores are already gone. The suburban-style retail real-estate market is going crash super hard.

I can't wait until the Dark Web has Amazon Prime Quadrocopters. "Yeah, just drop that kilo of coke and my new Russian bride right in the backyard" "Thanks hedonism bot!"

[designer3d712]

Originally Posted by Austinlee

There you have some of the worst crime and very few amenities. I'm looking at you: McKees Rocks, Esplen, West End, Sheraden, Ingram, Crafton Heights, Fairywood.


Am I wrong in my assessment? I wish I were.

In addition to low amount of amenities it is also slightly farther from the hot/hip neighborhoods than anywhere else in the city.

Fixed it for you. Also, I would rather go shopping at the Parkway Center Mall site, than drive out to Robinson.

[BrianTH]

I think the long-term future of the West End neighborhoods and inner west suburbs likely depends on improving their transit connections to Downtown and the rest of the City. In my ideal world that would mean completing the West Busway into Downtown as originally planned, with efficient connections in Downtown to the T, East Busway, and (future) East End BRT system. Improved connections to the West Busway could be through more local-to-express bus service (like the G31 Bridgeville Flyer), and maybe even some use of aerial gondolas.

But even without all that--short drives alone are eventually going to have a lot of appeal.

[photoLith]

Pnc from a couple minutes ago.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by Austinlee

I personally think the "West End business district" will spur "hip/cool growth within a mile or two around it.

Another issue is the "West End Village" (e.g., the West End proper) is mostly in a flood zone. This makes it almost impossible to secure financing for new construction (to infill the 50% of the district which is gone) or to buy a property with a mortgage.

Plus, as you note, the West End Village has very bad connectivity to the rest of the West End, due to being in a valley with highland neighborhoods surrounding it.

I agree overall that it seems likely the West End will become the "new ghetto" of the city as other areas improve. I'd even rate the Southern Hilltop as more likely to come back, as the neighborhoods themselves are more urban, and they form a pretty continuous band of urban development from the Slopes/Mount Washington down to Carrick.

[BrianTH]

I think the "new ghettos" of the future are destined to be mostly way farther out in the suburbs/exurbs.