Millennium Line - Broadway Extension: Planning & Pre-Construction

[squeezied]

Originally Posted by whatnext

The percentage of low yield users U-pass users on any UBC line would be staggering. At least a Surrey line would have better cost recovery and that's the area where the popualtion growth will be.

Politically there's no also no reason for the Premier to reward the riding that shunned her.

Just because U-Pass is heavily discounted doesn't mean low yield. Everybody here knows the how heavily used this corridor is. Economies of scale, it's quite simple. There's a reason why fares are so cheap in Asian cities where transit lines are heavily used. Some transit lines even make a profit despite the low cost of fares. Economies of scale. If there's enough people using the system, there will be a high yield, despite low fares.

Surrey wouldn't have a better cost recovery. If there's a low ridership, a full-price fare isn't going to do much for cost recovery. Population growth doesn't equate to transit ridership.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by whatnext

The percentage of low yield users U-pass users on any UBC line would be staggering. At least a Surrey line would have better cost recovery and that's the area where the popualtion growth will be.

Politically there's no also no reason for the Premier to reward the riding that shunned her.

UPass users would certainly flock to the line, but what % of users would use it vs those paying for it? I know the individual cost is very low, but it needs to be looked at as a whole.

I think the Upass price should be increased at a higher rate than regular passes, but time will tell.

As for ridership and growth, we'll see what happens with Evergreen. Personally I think Skytrain to Langley would have been a smarter move, but it's too late and time will tell...

[WarrenC12]

I looked through Translink's 2012 annual report but could not find reference to the cost recovery numbers of Skytrain. I know previously I've seen something like $1.10 of fares collected per $1 of operating expenses, but could not see anything like that in the 2012 AR.

That being said, I also don't know what is captured in that operating expense number.

[jlousa]

Think the numbers showed that the expo line more then breaks even, the M-Line didn't quite break even, but the two lines combined did swing back into the black, those were 2011 numbers, think we've seen a steady increase in M-Line ridership since then as well as increases in fares and Expo line ridership. Would be safe to assume that the Skytrain line is turning a profit, it can probably even begin to cover capital costs at this point. But we'd need to show some new numbers to know for sure.
I'm more curious as to how the Canada Line is doing, we know ridership growth has slowed but it's still above original projections. Are they using the additional revenue to speed up repayment?

[jsbertram]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Didn't Todd Stone say the province would fund 1/3 of any capital transit project? I would assume that includes the Broadway Line.

Assuming the Feds can be convinced to kick in another 1/3, that's still a heck of a lot of money for Translink to come up with... I don't think they have the pockets to call Todd Stone's bluff.

Rumours are swirling that Fed budget Tues will include 'infrastructure improvements' spending again - likely the feds want to stimulate the economy again so the coming downturn isn't so severe when the Fall 2015 Fed election comes around.

How many seats in Vancouver can Harper scoop if they toss a $Billion towards Broadway-UBC Skytrain? It won't be finished in time for ribbon-cutting photo-ops for the 2015 election, but the start of construction photo-ops could be just as handy for their local election brochures.

[jlousa]

Rumour actually has it that the Feds are going to earmark money for the Surrey expansion. Guess we'll find out later this week if bad mouthing the feds is good for business.

[spm2013]

Originally Posted by jsbertram

Rumours are swirling that Fed budget Tues will include 'infrastructure improvements' spending again - likely the feds want to stimulate the economy again so the coming downturn isn't so severe when the Fall 2015 Fed election comes around.

How many seats in Vancouver can Harper scoop if they toss a $Billion towards Broadway-UBC Skytrain? It won't be finished in time for ribbon-cutting photo-ops for the 2015 election, but the start of construction photo-ops could be just as handy for their local election brochures.

Well no one in those ridings would vote for the Conservatives even if they did fund it. And I'm sure a billion could go a long way in other ridings which makes the Surrey rumour pretty interesting.

[Gordon]

If The feds give Surrey the money to build the LRT they want,where will the money come to operate it?

[queetz@home]

Originally Posted by Gordon

If The feds give Surrey the money to build the LRT they want,where will the money come to operate it?

Surrey is one of the cities here that can go it alone and can, in theory, pay for it if they wanted too.

This concept is nothing new....ugly little troll Doug McCallum once threatened to secede Surrey from Translink if the original vehicle levy was approved. Dianne Watts has indicated the desire to go it alone as well, hence why they decided to apply for the LRT funding directly to the Feds.

Its been a while since I lived in Surrey but back in 2005, I recall from a newsletter the city had a cash reserve of $400 million or so. I don't know what its finances is right now, but I believe the city itself tend to be far more fiscally responsible that most Greater Vancouver cities.

[casper]

Originally Posted by squeezied

Just because U-Pass is heavily discounted doesn't mean low yield. Everybody here knows the how heavily used this corridor is. .....

Surrey wouldn't have a better cost recovery. If there's a low ridership, a full-price fare isn't going to do much for cost recovery. Population growth doesn't equate to transit ridership.

I think the U-Pass vrs other ticket types yield issue is less critical. You want to design capacity to match demand. If because of the UPass you have a large number of people heading to UBC then you need to add capacity (such as skytrain).

You might have higher yields someone else in the system, but if you don't need the capacity to adequately service the ridership on the route then why add the extra capacity.

[Waders]

Some news report mentioned Vancouver’s Evergreen Line rapid-transit extension. We will find out in tomorrow's federal budget.

[madog222]

Originally Posted by Waders

Some news report mentioned Vancouver’s Evergreen Line rapid-transit extension. We will find out in tomorrow's federal budget.

Ah yes, the famous announce what has already been done.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by jsbertram

Rumours are swirling that Fed budget Tues will include 'infrastructure improvements' spending again - likely the feds want to stimulate the economy again so the coming downturn isn't so severe when the Fall 2015 Fed election comes around.

There's a downturn coming? Please enlighten me and the rest of North America.

Seems to be like the US is finally getting back on it's feet. The USD is on the rise, and it's back on the gravy train for another 6-10 years.

[Tetsuo]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

There's a downturn coming? Please enlighten me and the rest of North America.

Seems to be like the US is finally getting back on it's feet. The USD is on the rise, and it's back on the gravy train for another 6-10 years.

Theres word of some trouble brewing in emerging markets, with currencies being hit.

Turkey and China to watch.

[Millennium2002]

Any time I hear people say that the good times will keep rolling... I just cringe... because it's on the expectation that more and more people will consume things to infinity. That's just really silly and naive thinking when we have supply-demand-growth-decline problems all over the place.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by allan_kuan

Any time I hear people say that the good times will keep rolling... I just cringe... because it's on the expectation that more and more people will consume things to infinity. That's just really silly and naive thinking when we have supply-demand-growth-decline problems all over the place.

The economy is cyclical. We haven't squeezed everything out of this planet by a long shot.

[jsbertram]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

The economy is cyclical. We haven't squeezed everything out of this planet by a long shot.

And when we realise there's nothing left to squeeze on earth, we'll start mining asteroids, moons, and the other planets.

If Capitalists can figure out how to make a profit, they will spend whatever it takes to get there and back.

[jsbertram]

Originally Posted by Tetsuo

Theres word of some trouble brewing in emerging markets, with currencies being hit.

Turkey and China to watch.

Ukraine under watch also.
Rumours have Putin holding his tanks in check until the Olympics are over.

'Beware the Ides of March'

[red-paladin]

Let's keep the comments to the Broadway Line, and not about increasingly unlikely geopolitical events.

[WarrenC12]

Well, to come full circle, zero transit announcements in the Federal Budget today.