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Whatever expense you assume for ferry services: I'm claiming the 10% of total crowd it'll transport will not have a significant impact on the city's street and bridge traffic.
Whatever expense you assume for whatever work must be done on the peninsula: I'm claiming there is a better chance for a return on investment and a greater potential for redevelopment.
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Again I'll iterate the reminder that the 10% in this case is not the total crowd of the stadium. It is only those that would be returning to Halifax: those coming from closer by areas of Dartmouth would walk, those driving in from elsewhere in Dartmouth would disperse. Those returning to Sackville and Bedford would only congest the brief area to get immediately away from the stadium: they'll be on the Bedford bypass. Those coming in from the 118 will be similarly removed from the equation.
Transit-wise, this removes a lot of excess people very quickly because almost right away you have large segments of the population that won't be sharing the same path home, or to the stadium.
The largest segment from Halifax will share some paths. The Mackay will inevitably see more traffic. However, anyone who knows anything about the region will see that it's not a huge detour to head down to the MacDonald if traffic reports slow going on the McKay, and what's more, heading down to the MacDonald could actually be the most optimal route for a large portion of the Halifax crowd. If you live Downtown, think about it: why are you going over the MacKay? Especially if it's congested? Just head down Windmill and take the McDonald.
So even for the crowd headed back to Halifax by car, you've got two routes that would be largely used that are going in completely opposite directions.
Plus, you know, ferries.
Place that stadium on the peninsula, and you won't be seeing those routes branch off right away. The people going to Moncton will be sharing the road with those headed to Dartmouth for a considerable distance, and those headed to Clayton Park will be sharing routes with those headed to Bedford and Sackville. And with no ferry option to siphon off those additional users.
Would more people be walking on the peninsula? Well yeah, but if you placed it in the North End, I'm not sure you'd be getting all that much more people walking. I mean, I'd have walked, but I'm crazy like that (I used to walk from my work near Highfield Park back home by the Armdale Rotary just to do it). Most people living in the new downtown developments going up won't walk to the Forum/Young Street/Kempt Rd.: they'll drive. Most people that would walk would be those people actually living in the North End and the neighborhoods running south. And that's a fair number of people, but I'm not sure the benefit is all that much more -- instead of people heading home to north end condo towers, you have people heading home to Dartmouth condos on the waterfront. With a Stadium close by, I'm not sure the property values of Highfield Park are going to stay low -- despite its deserved reputation, Highfield Park actually looks kinda ok when you compare it to Spryfield or what Gottigen looked like. That land will probably start to get more density and you'd simply have those people walking to the stadium instead. And yes, that number would be lower than it would have been had you stuck the Stadium in the North End, but I think the difference in those numbers don't outweigh the benefits of being able to so easily route those large segments of the crowd in completely different directions.
Well frankly if it's just a hope, why are we even bothering to try to get a stadium? If you don't think concerts are going to come by much more often to use that as a venue, or other sporting events are unlikely to use it, then I don't think there's much point in building the stadium, be it in Dartmouth or the North End. There has to be a business case beyond the CFL, even if that's the primary function. I happen to think there is.
If you're saying there isn't, then I would say we should be having a different conversation on whether there should be a stadium at all, not where one should be.
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This residential encourage of which you speak is not likely, relative to anywhere on peninsula where spinoffs are likely, and are bigger, and hold more potential for economic growth.
Private developers will be more willing to contribute to this enterprise (perhaps with their own development proposals) with a peninsular stadium. The established density makes it easier for companies to participate -- because more properties are impacted; there are greater retail and hotel possibilies.
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Well that's why the Mayor should be speaking to private developers before writing any location in stone. If he presents an option like DmaJackson's and the private sector is willing to shell out a significant amount more just to place it on the peninsula such that it makes a difference to the bottom line: well you'd have to be a fool to insist on Shannon Park.
Thing is, I don't think they'll be so adverse just because it's not on the peninsula, or at least they won't be that much more enthusiastic if it is. Yes, Shannon Park is in Dartmouth, but it's right on the water's edge. If that makes a difference in investment, so be it: push for a peninsular location. But I anticipate that the difference won't be substantial.
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Unlike on the peninsula: a stadium in Shannon Park means a stadium that is immediately beside the MacKay Bridge. Perhaps half the population of the peninsula decides to take the Macdonald and then trek all the way through Dartmouth to the MacKay Bridge.
Oh good.
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Well yeah: that would be good -- better than having the only route be the MacKay. By the time you've subdivided that element of the crowd that far (only Halifax + south shore citizens, minus ferrygoers, divided by the two bridges) you're looking, I would think, at a somewhat more manageable traffic situation. Add to the future having possible LRT links or another bridge/tunnel across the harbor.
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Most people on the peninsula, Halifax West, much of Bedford, and the outer suburbs are going to attempt the MacKay Bridge because that is where the stadium is.
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But that doesn't really make sense: sure, Halifax West and West Bedford will be going through the MacKay -- unless people from West Bedford anticipate the bridge having heavy traffic and opt to go a little out of the way to take the bypass instead -- but those living on something like half the Peninsula would take the McDonald. What makes more sense: driving up Robie to take the McKay, or going across the McDonald and up Windmill? What makes the most sense is that people are going to take the quickest route to the stadium that they can based on where they are.
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Shannon Park already has high-capacity roads leading right past the area.
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That doesn't help the MacKay.
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Sure it does. It ensures getting other groups of people out of the way quicker so that the people who will be taking the McKay get to it quicker. Much worse to have insufficient roads and create a bottleneck before you get to the MacKay.
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People will walk if it's on the peninsula -- even if they have to walk kinda far.
The bridge takes time. It's a considerable distance. The gridlock is going to extend the time people will be forced to spend travelling by vehicle. Public transit isn't immune.
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People will walk, but they're not going to walk from the South End, from Downtown, from Armdale. If it was at Kempt Road a great deal of them might not even walk from Fairview / Clayton Park because of the heavy roads in-between (trust me, it's not like those sidewalks past the Cemetery see a lot of pedestrian activity right now). Most people walking to a north end location are going to be from the surrounding neighborhoods -- but those neighborhoods aren't particularly dense right now. They have more people, I think, than the equivalent Dartmouth ones, but before or after additional spinoff development, I don't think the difference in pedestrian traffic between the two sites would be all that substantial.