PITTSBURGH | Development Rundown II

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by DKNewYork

This has absolutely nothing to do with Pittsburgh development...

Today at 1:20 PM is the fiftieth anniversary of the Beatles landing at JFK on their first visit to America. And Sunday is the fiftieth anniversary of their appearance on the Ed Sullivan Show. There is much local coverage of now-middle aged women explaining how they were amongst the hordes of teenaged girls creating pandemonium at the airport and the Plaza Hotel.

Calling someone who would now have to be in their mid-60s middle aged is a bit generous.

[BrianTH]

I find with every passing year, my sense of what counts as middle-aged expands a bit on the back end.

Anyway, I'm not sure anything in that Google article was new, but collecting it all in one place still tells an impressive story--their growth just since 2010 is alone quite remarkable. And as I was saying back in 2010, and as remains true today, you really can't beat Google when it comes to branding power in a case like this.

[DKNewYork]

Originally Posted by eschaton

Calling someone who would now have to be in their mid-60s middle aged is a bit generous.

The four women on the public radio program said identified themselves as currently 63. Not middle aged? If not, what are they? Old and Elderly don't seem right.

Below is from Wikipedia. While the upper limit of middle age seems to be inching higher, it is bothersome that it is being defined at all by the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders:

According to Collins Dictionary, this is "... usually considered to occur approximately between the ages of 41 and 60". The current edition of the Oxford English Dictionary gives a similar definition but with a shorter span: "The period of life between young adulthood and old age, now usually regarded as between about forty-five and sixty." The US Census lists middle age as including both the age categories 35 to 44 and 45 to 54, while prominent psychologist Erik Erikson saw it ending a little later and defines middle adulthood as between 40 and 65. The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, the standard diagnostic manual of the American Psychiatric Association, used to define middle age as 40–60, but as of Edition IV (1994) revised the definition upwards to 45–65.

[DKNewYork]

Originally Posted by BrianTH

I find with every passing year, my sense of what counts as middle-aged expands a bit on the back end.

Anyway, I'm not sure anything in that Google article was new, but collecting it all in one place still tells an impressive story--their growth just since 2010 is alone quite remarkable. And as I was saying back in 2010, and as remains true today, you really can't beat Google when it comes to branding power in a case like this.

I would be interested to see an article that attempts to quantify the spin-off benefits of Google's presence in Pittsburgh. Not in terms of rented office space, but rather jobs/developments/initiatives that are not specifically Google but attributable to the firm being here. Companies that have put employees here to be close to Google, maybe local companies started by former Google employees, benefits to CMU and Pitt getting research dollars or certain faculty... That kind of thing.

[Captain Crash]

It seems the Slovenian Grah LED firm is pretty close to setting up shop here. They have at least an agreement to pursue a partnership with Millcraft. Could be a good early resident of the Hazelwood LTV site.

http://www.post-gazette.com/business/201...sues-Slovenian-pact/stories/201402010028

[Captain Crash]

Originally Posted by GeneW

At some point there was talk here about building a parking garage on Ridge Ave for CCAC right were they have a surface lot now (between Graybar and the Subway Sandwich). CCAC would then free up the lots on the 900 block of N. Lincoln and on top of Monument Hill for residential development. I heard this plan about five years ago though and nothing's become of it so far.

Monument hill is such a waste of a vista, there should be something up there other than a parking lot.

I remember reading somewhere awhile back about a proposal to build a large Ferris Wheel (like London, Niagara Falls, etc.) on Monument Hill to serve as an anchor for developments. The idea was to honor the Ferris Wheel's development on the North Side and take advantage of the underutilized views of the city from there, which would be sort of an anchor for commercial and residential developments around it.

Interesting but maybe not the best use of some relatively tight space.

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by DKNewYork

I would be interested to see an article that attempts to quantify the spin-off benefits of Google's presence in Pittsburgh. Not in terms of rented office space, but rather jobs/developments/initiatives that are not specifically Google but attributable to the firm being here. Companies that have put employees here to be close to Google, maybe local companies started by former Google employees, benefits to CMU and Pitt getting research dollars or certain faculty... That kind of thing.

I think it would be very difficult to control for other factors, most notably the presence of CMU and Pitt, but also all the other institutions, companies, and so on who are contributing to developing a "tech corridor" in the East End. That's not to say I don't think Google is contributing greatly, but trying to separate out which part of the overall effect is specifically attributable to Google sounds like a very difficult task to me.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by DKNewYork

The four women on the public radio program said identified themselves as currently 63. Not middle aged? If not, what are they? Old and Elderly don't seem right.

Below is from Wikipedia. While the upper limit of middle age seems to be inching higher, it is bothersome that it is being defined at all by the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders:

According to Collins Dictionary, this is "... usually considered to occur approximately between the ages of 41 and 60". The current edition of the Oxford English Dictionary gives a similar definition but with a shorter span: "The period of life between young adulthood and old age, now usually regarded as between about forty-five and sixty." The US Census lists middle age as including both the age categories 35 to 44 and 45 to 54, while prominent psychologist Erik Erikson saw it ending a little later and defines middle adulthood as between 40 and 65. The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, the standard diagnostic manual of the American Psychiatric Association, used to define middle age as 40–60, but as of Edition IV (1994) revised the definition upwards to 45–65.

I'd like to believe I'll live to be 120, but chances are I will not, hence 60 is not anywhere near the midpoint of my life. As the average male lives to 76 years of age, the point where you're middle aged is around 38.

Still, I more agree with the definition that middle age means the middle of your adulthood, not the middle of your life in general. Hence young adult is 20 to 39, middle age is 40 to 59, and elderly is 60 and up.

[DKNewYork]

Originally Posted by BrianTH

I think it would be very difficult to control for other factors, most notably the presence of CMU and Pitt, but also all the other institutions, companies, and so on who are contributing to developing a "tech corridor" in the East End. That's not to say I don't think Google is contributing greatly, but trying to separate out which part of the overall effect is specifically attributable to Google sounds like a very difficult task to me.

I agree that it would be tough to quantify Google's explicit effect on local development. Doesn't stop me from wondering though. And it's the intangible, hard-to-measure effects that interest me the most. Google's "brand" (to use your word) is an obvious plus for any city that has a Google office. As an example about what I am curious about: I've been told that Ace Hotel would not have looked at Pittsburgh but for the presence of the Google office. Not that Pittsburgh was unworthy---just that that the Ace people would never have thought to do the leg work to see if a property here made any sense had it not been for Google.

[Steel City Scotty]

Originally Posted by eschaton

I'd like to believe I'll live to be 120, but chances are I will not, hence 60 is not anywhere near the midpoint of my life. As the average male lives to 76 years of age, the point where you're middle aged is around 38.

Hey now...researchers say that the first person to live to be 150 years old has already been born.

[Don't Be That Guy]

Originally Posted by Jonboy1983

A 20-story building there would look awesome!

20,000 residents? Build more skyscrapers and not this squat crap that Continental wants to construct? Pittsburgh is neither a stagnant economy nor a lousy housing market. Both are rather strong now and are trending to get even stronger over the years. It's time to plan for it...

The problem with residential highrises is cost of construction. The difference in price per square foot of construction between a six story wood frame building and a steel frame highrise is huge. And while the market in Pittsburgh certainly isn't lousy, it's not strong enough to demand the $2,200+/unit rents a developer would need to charge to justify highrise construction, not while entire houses can be had in desirable neighborhoods for that price or less per month. So unless it's a conversion of an existing structure to residential I'd expect to see most new apartment buildings to top out at six stories.

What the urban Pittsburgh housing market is really lacking is new construction/rehabs of 3-4 bedroom 2.5 bath for-sale homes in the <$350,000 range. It was a shame to see Heartland homes shy away from their project in Lawrenceville because that is a truly underserved market segment in the city.

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by eschaton

Still, I more agree with the definition that middle age means the middle of your adulthood, not the middle of your life in general. Hence young adult is 20 to 39, middle age is 40 to 59, and elderly is 60 and up.

Ah, but average life expectancy for a U.S. female at age 60 is actually something like 84.4. 84.4-21=63.4, /3=21.1, and 84.4-21.1=63.3. So my math says a U.S. female today isn't in the last third of her adulthood until she is about 64.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by Don't Be That Guy

What the urban Pittsburgh housing market is really lacking is new construction/rehabs of 3-4 bedroom 2.5 bath for-sale homes in the <$350,000 range. It was a shame to see Heartland homes shy away from their project in Lawrenceville because that is a truly underserved market segment in the city.

From what I understand, the absolute cheapest you sell new construction SFH in Pittsburgh (without HUD money subsidizing it) is around $250,000. And in those cases we're talking about smaller houses with very low end finishes. So I'd presume if you increase the size of the house by an additional bedroom and bath it would be hard to stay under $350 - and you'd probably have a cheap siding/drywall box.

As to rehabs, one issue is so much of the city's real older "grand" real estate in places like Oakland, Highland Park, East Liberty, and Friendship, and even Shadyside have been split into apartments. Landlords don't want to give up their cash cows, and with the conversion costs, you would make less money turning them back.

Really though, you'd need another, former "gentry" neighborhood to make it in a big way to provide the supply. I can't think of any South of the Mon, except maybe Oakwood. There's certainly parts of the North Side (Brighton Heights, Observatory Hill, even Perry Hilltop) which have plenty of grand old houses which have been or could be brought back.

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by Don't Be That Guy

The problem with residential highrises is cost of construction. The difference in price per square foot of construction between a six story wood frame building and a steel frame highrise is huge. And while the market in Pittsburgh certainly isn't lousy, it's not strong enough to demand the $2,200+/unit rents a developer would need to charge to justify highrise construction, not while entire houses can be had in desirable neighborhoods for that price or less per month. So unless it's a conversion of an existing structure to residential I'd expect to see most new apartment buildings to top out at six stories.

This Piatt project at the Saks site is likely an exception, however. It is presumably going to be steel frame no matter what, and could well be priced in that range.

And it may also be a condo project--in fact I wonder if the skinnier tower with great views plan we sketched out might make the most sense for condos specifically.

[Don't Be That Guy]

Originally Posted by eschaton

From what I understand, the absolute cheapest you sell new construction SFH in Pittsburgh (without HUD money subsidizing it) is around $250,000. And in those cases we're talking about smaller houses with very low end finishes. So I'd presume if you increase the size of the house by an additional bedroom and bath it would be hard to stay under $350 - and you'd probably have a cheap siding/drywall box.

I won't comment on quality of build, only that seems to be the sweet spot for new construction in the region and you could probably sell them as fast as you built them depending upon the neighborhood.

As to rehabs, one issue is so much of the city's real older "grand" real estate in places like Oakland, Highland Park, East Liberty, and Friendship, and even Shadyside have been split into apartments. Landlords don't want to give up their cash cows, and with the conversion costs, you would make less money turning them back.

This is very true.

Really though, you'd need another, former "gentry" neighborhood to make it in a big way to provide the supply. I can't think of any South of the Mon, except maybe Oakwood. There's certainly parts of the North Side (Brighton Heights, Observatory Hill, even Perry Hilltop) which have plenty of grand old houses which have been or could be brought back.

Agreed, the supply is there. The issue is that demand is currently concentrated on a fairly small number of neighborhoods.

Peduto's vision of seeing 20,000 new residents in the City is doable. We have the infrastructure and the inventory. Making that possible however hinges upon will be in lacking newer options will whether or not these new residents will want to bother with renovations, and schools. School quality and choice in the city being the far bigger of those two issues.

[Austinlee]

Originally Posted by BrianTH

The Gardens has a live webcam (and a pretty slick one at that):

http://oxblue.com/open/TheGardens

So far just a start on a hole--but it is a start!

Also, bonus shots of PNC Tower on one side.

So there's a webcam up on the internet used to watch dirty holes? Interesting.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by Don't Be That Guy

I won't comment on quality of build, only that seems to be the sweet spot for new construction in the region and you could probably sell them as fast as you built them depending upon the neighborhood.

Keep in mind that to build a house made out of identical materials to a $350,000 suburban house would almost certainly cost more in the city, mainly because there wouldn't be the economies of scale that doing an entire subdivision at once provides. Most of the places where there are significant numbers of vacant lots which are ready for new construction are in blighted ghettos, and thus not good places for market rate housing. Lawrenceville is the only place I expect to see some significant development soon - I think it's a matter of time before empty industrial land like this starts getting developed for new housing.

Originally Posted by Don't Be That Guy

Peduto's vision of seeing 20,000 new residents in the City is doable. We have the infrastructure and the inventory. Making that possible however hinges upon will be in lacking newer options will whether or not these new residents will want to bother with renovations, and schools. School quality and choice in the city being the far bigger of those two issues.

Pittsburgh has some of the better school quality and choice of a major urban area, so I don't think this is as much of a drag as you would think.

[SkyPittsburgh]

Originally Posted by eschaton

I think it's a matter of time before empty industrial land like this starts getting developed for new housing.

According to the Allegheny Green Boulevard Plan, this will become apartments/townhouses within the next couple years. It also appears there is a road that was recently constructed on that site.

[Evergrey]

http://hosted-p0.vresp.com/1582053/7eb4244176/ARCHIVE




Hot Metal Flats - South Side - 115 units


Alphabet City - East Liberty - office/retail

[markson33]

Meh...I wish our local developers would be a little more creative. Oxford's plans are not horrible, but I'm tired of the style-less brick/metal cladding/feature wall plans.

Village Green's plans are at least a little more unique - their art deco plans on the south side at least has a basis in an architectural "style".

Non-the-less I'm psyched that Oxford is taking on the projects in general. Now we just need someone to take a risk on a modern highrise.