Quote:
Originally Posted by NewWester
I think perhaps you guys are overestimating the grand exodus of shoppers from downtown. I feel like there is at least a balance of people making trips out of Vancouver to dine and shop and people heading into the city to dine and shop. I mean, I live out in New West but aside from like grocery errands am much more likely to go clothing or retail shopping downtown (since Metrotown on the weekend is not a fun place to visit) and Vancouver has a far more interesting collection of restaurant options than Burnaby or New West. (And the fact that I can get downtown easily without driving is kind of a plus for dining, since then I can actually have a few drinks.) I think the idea that people are actively being discouraged from visiting the city is unrealistic.
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I'd have to agree with your conclusions but not based on your reasoning. If you look at statistics from a few years ago, the retail business broke down:
Downtown Vancouver Service = 3,760 businesses
Metro Vancouver Service = 37,708 businesses
Downtown Vancouver Retail = 1,234 businesses
Metro Vancouver Retail = 22,730 businesses
So Downtown Service businsesses account for about 10% of all metro-vancouver services, and retail 5%. That means 90% of all service businesses aren't downtown and 95% of all retail isn't downtown.
We put Downtown up on this pedastal as where everyone goes, when the truth (including commercial/business numbers between Vancouver as a whole and the region as a whole) statistically is that downtown isn't the regional focus for a lot of things. Sure it has a lot of services you can't find anywhere else and has a lot of nice high rises giving it a look of where all the action is, but that isn't the reality and most people outside downtown even in Vancouver itself, adventure to downtown Vancouver very few times per year if ever.
So I don't think there is a grand exodus of shoppers from down town but not because as you said it is being overestimated, but rather because it already has happened years ago. People who shop downtown, shop downtown. People who don't, don't. So additional services and retail outside downtown just compensates for the population increases outside and vice versa.
Remember both areas are growing in population. If you +10,000 people in downtown and +100 retail outlets, those 100 retail outlets are to serve that +10,000 downtown. Same deal with outside downtown. If you +100,000 and +x retail, it just covers those new people.
But generally I believe the percentages remain the same per capita.
Vancouver isn't hurting retail wise though it is evolving. Vancouver is hurting industry wise but it is trying to compensate through moving towards white-collar jobs aka consultants, high-tech, finance, etc. to fill the gap. Retail is retail and people in general like to shop close to home.
Yes once in a while I will go downtown or to Metrotown to do some shopping. But I live in Surrey so 98% of my shopping is done there be it groceries, running to the store quick, going to Guildford or Walmart, or Canadian Tire for general stuff. Same goes everywhere else. Someone in Brentwood will do most of their shopping there. People living in Richmond will do most of their shopping there.