Calgary's $8 BILLION Transit Plan - The RouteAhead

[Bassic Lab]

Originally Posted by fusili

Why? We have a 30% increase in capacity happening shortly. We have a bus corridor that is way over capacity (Centre Street) on one of two quadrants of the City that have no LRT service to speak of. We have 4 hospitals (FMC, ACH, South Health and RGH) and one post-secondary institution (MRU) that has no rapid transit access at all.

I agree that the 8th avenue subway is important, but relative to it's cost and the need for other transit infrastructure, I am not sold that it should be a top priority. If you think it is, tell me what then goes down on the priority list?

It really depends on the result of four car trains. Capacity has been maxed out on 7 Ave for six years now. It is very much an open question of how much time four car trains will buy us. I could easily see 7 Ave hitting another wall before 2020. A maxed out 7 Ave is a real problem. It keeps us from being able to leverage our existing investment. TODs make a lot less sense to develop if all the trains passing by are full. Also the benefit to whole system reliability is hard to over stress. We would have far fewer disruptions and cascading failures. The benefit to north- south vehicular traffic in the core would also aid our bus system.

Comparing it to other projects is a bit of a mixed bag. The north central corridor is really in the same boat as 7 Ave. There is a real danger that bus capacity in the area will be maxed out in the same time frame. The probable choke point is also downtown which has ramifications for the whole city. Other bus routes, to areas that won't need higher order transit for sometime (17 Ave E) or ever (Elbow Drive), will be competing for limited space. So here it pretty well just comes down to circumstances. Relieving capacity constraints where ever they arise being the paramount goal. Of course the 8 Ave subway is a much cheaper way to send more people into the core than the NCLRT, so that is a factor.

I think the SELRT is an entirely different matter. I think that if it existed today, it would garner WLRT ridership but at twice the cost to build. The deep SE is probably twenty years away from being built out enough to justify it by itself. That said, the build out of employment centres along the route at Quarry Park and Seton over the next few years could seriously speed up the timeframe. For that to happen though people would need to be willing to commute to these areas via transit in numbers that significantly exceed existing suburban office parks. That is a dubious notion at present, I for one remain unconvinced, but if it panned out, then the relief to Deerfoot congestion would definitely make the project worthwhile.

No other routes really make sense to even be in this conversation. I'm ignoring incremental improvements to various BRTs because they don't really entail major capital expenditures although some might be on the border of qualifying. 17 Ave E is likely decades away from the kind of growth that would justify it being added to the list. 16 Ave N could probably make due with bus lanes for a long time. The airport doesn't make any kind of sense except politically. An inner west side circumferential line, which I'm strongly in favour of, lacks a ROW that would keep costs below astronomical. Past that and ideas start getting really thin.

So, in my mind, until we have some real evidence that IOL employees will take the train, it's pretty much a race between 7 Ave and the 301 to run out of capacity. It could go either way but, for the time being, my bet would be on the existing C-Train hitting the wall first.

[Bassic Lab]

Originally Posted by fusili

I disagree. While Chu does not want the LRT, much of his constituents do.

I agree with you that many of his constituents are for it (it was a close election after all) but I don't see how that contradicts what I said. He will likely make things awkward for the next little bit and he is an odd example of successfully running against LRT in Calgary. Advocates for transit expansion, as we both are, will need to consider that example going forward if we're to be successful.

[DizzyEdge]

At the LRT's current passenger growth, how many years before the 33% capacity increase that 4 car trains provide is used up?

[RyLucky]

Originally Posted by DizzyEdge

At the LRT's current passenger growth, how many years before the 33% capacity increase that 4 car trains provide is used up?

It depends how you look at it. Technically, we are only at/near capacity for a few hours/day and mainly in one direction (exception being between SAIT and City Hall where it is packed both directions, and for a longer duration). Even with a fourth car, there will be a few times when capacity will be topped out, but another train will always come.

Annual Ridership: (source)
2013 107.5 million
2012 102.0
2011 96.2
2010 94.4
2009 94.2
2008 95.3
2007 90.3
2006 88.7
2005 82.0
2004 80.6
2003 78.0

38% increase in 10 years. If the economy stays hot, I'd say we can expect 5% increase/year. Therefore, after 4-car trains arrive, I'd expect things will be as crowded as they are today in ~6-7 years. 2020. If the economy crashes, add a few years. Also bear in mind that Downtown's population will likely grow by around 30% in that time, and Downtown office space will grow by 10-20%. Most new Calgarians will have 50+ min commutes.

[DizzyEdge]

so let's say 7-10 years. What would be a guess for both lead/planning time and construction time to construct the 8th ave subway? I'm guessing that the underground portion will have quite a bit more longevity since the trains could be longer than 4 car?

[fusili]

The biggest winner in terms of transit investment, IMO, would be transit lanes on 5th and 6th avenue downtown, combined with a transit- and right turns-only lane reversal on Centre street and a transit-only curb lane to curb lane turn signal from 5th avenue eastbound to Centre Street northbound.

There are so many buses using downtown that I see a huge benefit to improving bus times through the downtown via a dedicated lane. The benefit is that so many routes could use the lanes. The 301, 302, 305, 1, 2 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 (just to name a few) are all routes that could make use of a dedicated transit lane downtown. Not only this, it could remove buses from regular traffic. A large part of the congestion on 5th avenue, for example, is caused by buses trying to change 4 lanes to make a left turn onto centre street and blocking traffic in the process (hence the curb-lane to curb-lane transit only turn signal).

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by fusili

The biggest winner in terms of transit investment, IMO, would be transit lanes on 5th and 6th avenue downtown, combined with a transit- and right turns-only lane reversal on Centre street and a transit-only curb lane to curb lane turn signal from 5th avenue eastbound to Centre Street northbound.

There are so many buses using downtown that I see a huge benefit to improving bus times through the downtown via a dedicated lane. The benefit is that so many routes could use the lanes. The 301, 302, 305, 1, 2 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 (just to name a few) are all routes that could make use of a dedicated transit lane downtown. Not only this, it could remove buses from regular traffic. A large part of the congestion on 5th avenue, for example, is caused by buses trying to change 4 lanes to make a left turn onto centre street and blocking traffic in the process (hence the curb-lane to curb-lane transit only turn signal).

Totally agree. I was on the 301 yesterday and it took over 1/2 hour to go from 6th st to centre st. That's nonsense. It took 50 minutes to get from 6th st to 40th ave, not a large distance by any stretch. I'd argue this route is already at capacity, as the bus left many people behind at the later stops in downtown. Not sure what the headway is on 301 but I usually don't wait more than 5 or so minutes so there isn't room for to many more. The funny thing is, I was in a rush to get home, so I took the 301 (express! ha!) instead of my usual #2.


Is Chu actually against an LRT? How did this doofus get elected? Where did he form these backwards opinions? Guy is a grade A obstructionist imbecile.

[RyLucky]

I agree too.

[Policy Wonk]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Is Chu actually against an LRT? How did this doofus get elected? Where did he form these backwards opinions? Guy is a grade A obstructionist imbecile.

He isn't against the LRT, he just thinks this current NCLRT exercise is a waste of time when an actionable proposal isn't going to come out the other side.

[technomad]

Agree with most of this, BRT as crosstown lines will suffice for a long time, and LRT to the airport is a bad way to go.

Don't think a western crescent line has to be all that cost prohibitive though, especially when it comes to ROW. Almost all of it is already city property.

Using Shaganappi ROW, from northland mall, to market, to ACH, foothills and across the river up to Sarcee.

Then down Sarcee ROW stoping at Sirocco and down to a new station/TOD/maint yard at signal hill.

Onward elevated over Glenmore with a stop for Grey Eagle development, before continuing on to MRU campus.

Continuing elevated eastward to Crowchild, south to Glenmore and over the reservoir and turning south at 14 St with a stop for Rocky View / Heritage Park.

Then south on 14th to a presumed combo LTR/flood relief tunnel under heritage drive, with an underground station linking to heritage on SLRT, and resurfacing for a hilltop deerfoot meadows station.

South again along Blackfoot, across deerfoot to future quarry west development and finally ending with a link across the river to the Quarry Park SELRT.

Lot's of elevated track for sure, and the flood tunnel makes or breaks the project IMO, but there really isn't much, if any private land acquisition required for this.

Question becomes, is linking all of those points to the rapid transit network worth the cost?

I think so

Originally Posted by Bassic Lab

No other routes really make sense to even be in this conversation. I'm ignoring incremental improvements to various BRTs because they don't really entail major capital expenditures although some might be on the border of qualifying. 17 Ave E is likely decades away from the kind of growth that would justify it being added to the list. 16 Ave N could probably make due with bus lanes for a long time. The airport doesn't make any kind of sense except politically. An inner west side circumferential line, which I'm strongly in favour of, lacks a ROW that would keep costs below astronomical. Past that and ideas start getting really thin.

[Calgarian]

When they do the 8th Ave Subway, will it be cut and cover, or will it be done with a TBM? However it's done I expect significant disruption to the businesses on Stephen Ave.

My earlier point was more about the serious lack of funding for this, so unless the province or feds pay up, it will be decades before they even seriously think about this. Personally I think there are some road projects that need to happen before the subway is built (after the SELRT and NCLRT of course) like Deerfoot at Glenmore, Heritage at MacLeod, and possibly even Crowchild.

[Fuzz]

Very roughly drafted, that's 25-30km of track. Is that more useful than spending money on the NC/SE line? Burying the downtown LRT? If we had infinite money, sure, nice route.

[Full Mountain]

Originally Posted by Bassic Lab

Ward 4 in 2013 provides a strange counter example. It might be awkward to develop NCLRT plans in the short term seeings how it would be over the objections of the alderman of much of the affected area.

Originally Posted by fusili

The biggest winner in terms of transit investment, IMO, would be transit lanes on 5th and 6th avenue downtown, combined with a transit- and right turns-only lane reversal on Centre street and a transit-only curb lane to curb lane turn signal from 5th avenue eastbound to Centre Street northbound.

There are so many buses using downtown that I see a huge benefit to improving bus times through the downtown via a dedicated lane. The benefit is that so many routes could use the lanes. The 301, 302, 305, 1, 2 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 (just to name a few) are all routes that could make use of a dedicated transit lane downtown. Not only this, it could remove buses from regular traffic. A large part of the congestion on 5th avenue, for example, is caused by buses trying to change 4 lanes to make a left turn onto centre street and blocking traffic in the process (hence the curb-lane to curb-lane transit only turn signal).

This....these lanes need to happen now as in 2014. I don't know how many times I've watched my bus take 5 minutes to go a block because of people turning right in front of it. Bus priority at all lights, with a right turn for vehicles at the end of each cycle.

There would be minimal impact to traffic from the loss of the right lane as it is primarily a transit lane anyway, and as you mentioned would prevent the buses cutting across 4-5 lanes to make a left turn

[Full Mountain]

Originally Posted by technomad

Agree with most of this, BRT as crosstown lines will suffice for a long time, and LRT to the airport is a bad way to go.

Don't think a western crescent line has to be all that cost prohibitive though, especially when it comes to ROW. Almost all of it is already city property.

Using Shaganappi ROW, from northland mall, to market, to ACH, foothills and across the river up to Sarcee.

Then down Sarcee ROW stoping at Sirocco and down to a new station/TOD/maint yard at signal hill.

Onward elevated over Glenmore with a stop for Grey Eagle development, before continuing on to MRU campus.

Continuing elevated eastward to Crowchild, south to Glenmore and over the reservoir and turning south at 14 St with a stop for Rocky View / Heritage Park.

Then south on 14th to a presumed combo LTR/flood relief tunnel under heritage drive, with an underground station linking to heritage on SLRT, and resurfacing for a hilltop deerfoot meadows station.

South again along Blackfoot, across deerfoot to future quarry west development and finally ending with a link across the river to the Quarry Park SELRT.

Lot's of elevated track for sure, and the flood tunnel makes or breaks the project IMO, but there really isn't much, if any private land acquisition required for this.

Question becomes, is linking all of those points to the rapid transit network worth the cost?

I think so

BRT for that route sure, LRT not yet. Same goes for the SE, implement a proper BRT and see how ridership does, once capacity is within a reasonable range, convert to LRT.

NC is at/near BRT capacity today, dedicated lanes is a temporary solution till the LRT is built. Center Street has the proven ridership that no other corridor in the city has at this point, the NC needs strong councillors to fight for the LRT. Chu could be the biggest asset yet he seems more focused on yapping off about topics he has no idea about, and is instead becoming a detriment to the NC area, not just his ward.

[5seconds]

Originally Posted by fusili

The biggest winner in terms of transit investment, IMO, would be transit lanes on 5th and 6th avenue downtown, combined with a transit- and right turns-only lane reversal on Centre street and a transit-only curb lane to curb lane turn signal from 5th avenue eastbound to Centre Street northbound.

There are so many buses using downtown that I see a huge benefit to improving bus times through the downtown via a dedicated lane. The benefit is that so many routes could use the lanes. The 301, 302, 305, 1, 2 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 (just to name a few) are all routes that could make use of a dedicated transit lane downtown. Not only this, it could remove buses from regular traffic. A large part of the congestion on 5th avenue, for example, is caused by buses trying to change 4 lanes to make a left turn onto centre street and blocking traffic in the process (hence the curb-lane to curb-lane transit only turn signal).

I'm not sure how valuable transit lanes along 6th ave would actually be (not that they would be bad, just that I'm not sure they would actually do much).

I use to take the 18 or 63 along 6th every day, and cars didn't often go in the curb lane there. Of course there were cars, but being stuck behind a line of buses that constantly stopped was usually enough for most cars to leave that lane. The biggest hold up along there seemed to be that every bus was behind other buses that stopped all along 6th, and that by staying in that lane, you were guaranteed to be stop at every bus stop, whether your bus actually 'stopped' there or not.

This is all anecdotal of course! And saying that, if it would help, I'm all for it.

[Policy Wonk]

Originally Posted by Full Mountain

the NC needs strong councillors to fight for the LRT.

By doing what exactly? Threatening to hold their breath until Edmonton showers us in money?

[MalcolmTucker]

Originally Posted by Calgarian

When they do the 8th Ave Subway, will it be cut and cover, or will it be done with a TBM? However it's done I expect significant disruption to the businesses on Stephen Ave.

My earlier point was more about the serious lack of funding for this, so unless the province or feds pay up, it will be decades before they even seriously think about this. Personally I think there are some road projects that need to happen before the subway is built (after the SELRT and NCLRT of course) like Deerfoot at Glenmore, Heritage at MacLeod, and possibly even Crowchild.

I wouldn't call it a serious lack of funding. In mid February we will know the minimum level of federal funding for municipal infrastructure for the next ten years (only likely to be increased by other governments). Provincially I wouldn't expect funding to decrease year over year, and either this year or next we will have a funding map through to the end of the MSI and GreenTrip envelopes, and hopefully a new follow on program announced in the budget before the next provincial election. Something may come of the City Charters thing too.

Calgary is growing so fast even with spending much higher than other parts of the country it is hard to keep up.

[Full Mountain]

Originally Posted by Policy Wonk

By doing what exactly? Threatening to hold their breath until Edmonton showers us in money?

No, by doing exactly what Keating is doing for the SE. Talk about it, I haven't heard any of the three (Carra, Farrell, or Chu) mention it or request that it occurs before the SE leg.

Edit: Center street, while one of the more important development corridors in the city is kinda in a no mans land, it's on the edge of wards 7 & 9 and ward 4 doesn't seem to give a hoot

[VIce]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Totally agree. I was on the 301 yesterday and it took over 1/2 hour to go from 6th st to centre st. That's nonsense. It took 50 minutes to get from 6th st to 40th ave, not a large distance by any stretch. I'd argue this route is already at capacity, as the bus left many people behind at the later stops in downtown. Not sure what the headway is on 301 but I usually don't wait more than 5 or so minutes so there isn't room for to many more. The funny thing is, I was in a rush to get home, so I took the 301 (express! ha!) instead of my usual #2.


Is Chu actually against an LRT? How did this doofus get elected? Where did he form these backwards opinions? Guy is a grade A obstructionist imbecile.

As far as I know, the headway on the 301 is the same as 201/202 during rush hour. 5 minutes.

[ByeByeBaby]

Originally Posted by Full Mountain

No, by doing exactly what Keating is doing for the SE. Talk about it, I haven't heard any of the three (Carra, Farrell, or Chu) mention it or request that it occurs before the SE leg.

Edit: Center street, while one of the more important development corridors in the city is kinda in a no mans land, it's on the edge of wards 7 & 9 and ward 4 doesn't seem to give a hoot

It's an interesting case of how ward boundaries can affect politics. While Tuxedo Park is in ward 9, so are Inglewood, Ramsay, Ogden and Riverbend so I can't really blame Carra for not being the outspoken NCLRT champion. And the end of the line is ward 3, but Stevenson also represents the end of the NELRT.