PHILADELPHIA | Highrise Development Thread IX

[Jonboy1983]

That skyline is going to look epic once these projects are completed!

If anyone is interested I made my latest blog post about a vacant tract of land near my home in Valley Twp. Chester County.

http://urbandesigneggshell.blogspot.com/2014/01/massive-vacant-valley-township-land.html

Stay tuned, I am thinking of appropriate wording for a post pertaining to the glass fortress that will rise on Arch Street!

[Philly-Drew]

Of course I remember you PhillyDreams. I used to go by Philly-Rocks! but at one point years ago there was a change made and I couldn't log in with the ! in my name. So I changed my name to Philly-Drew instead.

Good to see you on the boards. Thank you for your contributions in the past. The new generation is carrying the ball now.

[shadowbat2]

Pew: Despite recent "boom," millennials likely to leave Philly


Julie Shaw, Daily News Staff Writer [email protected], 215-854-2592
Last updated: Wednesday, January 22, 2014, 2:00 PM

The surge in young adults that's fueled an increase in the city's population in recent years is a "fragile boom," a new Pew Charitable Trusts report says.
In a Pew poll, "half of the 20- to 34-year-olds questioned said they definitely or probably would not be living in Philadelphia five to 10 years from now, compared with about 3 in 10 for the rest of the city's adult population," Larry Eichel, project director of Pew's Philadelphia Research Initiative, wrote in the report, released this afternoon.
For those likely to leave, 38 percent cited career reasons, 29 percent mentioned school and child-upbringing concerns, and 22 percent said they were worried about crime or public safety.
Of the young adults polled, 56 percent said they would not recommend the city as a place to raise kids, while only 36 percent said they would.
"These results suggest that the millennials' affection for Philadelphia is conditional," Eichel wrote. "And for the city, the stakes in meeting those conditions are very high."
Millennials, for the purpose of the report, are defined as people aged 20 to 34.
Eichel, in a teleconference with reporters today, said he was "not in the business of giving recommendations" to city officials, but "would just point to the report." He said many city officials are aware of the concerns raised.
The report found that the highest concentrations of millennials live in and around Center City. Specifically, the study found that zip codes in Manayunk, Center City, University City and Fairmount have more than 40 percent of its residents in the millennial age group.
Other areas — in South Philly, East Falls, Roxborough, Northern Liberties, Kensington/Fishtown, and North Philly near Temple — have populations that are 30 to 40 percent millennials.
Racially, among millennials, "whites are the largest group, representing 40 percent of the total," Eichel wrote. In comparison, for the city as a whole, blacks are the largest racial group, comprising 42 percent of the population.
The report also found that Asians in the millennial age group represented a higher percentage in 2012 (8 percent) than for Asians as a whole in the city (6 percent). The percentage of Hispanic millennials was about the same as Hispanics in general in the city (both 13 percent).
In 2006, the city's population fell to its lowest point since the 1900 census, the report said, but then began to rebound. The city's population grew by nearly 59,000 in the next six years, reaching an estimated 1,547,607.
Besides young adults, foreign immigrants also contributed to the city's population surge.


Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/news/breaki...to_leave_Philly.html#5SpzX0mWwz2kxm8f.99

[Capsule F]

Why is that article spun as bad news necessarily? I'm sure if you asked millennials a decade ago about 2 out of 10 would see themselves here in 5 to 10 years. There is nothing here to compare to, I am satisfied with half of millennials wanting to stay. This society gets more transient over time.

[acenturi]

Originally Posted by Capsule F

Why is that article spun as bad news necessarily? I'm sure if you asked millennials a decade ago about 2 out of 10 would see themselves here in 5 to 10 years. There is nothing here to compare to, I am satisfied with half of millennials wanting to stay. This society gets more transient over time.

Because that's the way they sell news. Just take a look at CNN, or most anyone else in the news media. IMO, the general populous hungers for disaster/bad news and entertainment gossip. Obviously there are some valid points in the report - as we all know too well, but to depict it as the end, without hope, is negative sensationalism. Sometimes I wonder if news media editors ever review authors content and if they do, it's for sales potential rather than community benefit.

[PhiLaw]

Originally Posted by acenturi

Because that's the way they sell news. Just take a look at CNN, or most anyone else in the news media. IMO, the general populous hungers for disaster/bad news and entertainment gossip. Obviously there are some valid points in the report - as we all know too well, but to depict it as the end, without hope, is negative sensationalism. Sometimes I wonder if news media editors ever review authors content and if they do, it's for sales potential rather than community benefit.

I see it more as a push for action on school reform and other city services. Retaining 5/10 new residents who have not grown up here and whose connections within the city are relatively new is not a bad number. Scarcely 2/10 of my friends who moved to NYC after college still live there. 5/10 is still net positive.

However, the article is pointing out a vicious cycle. Young people are prone to move out when they have families; lack of children of affluent parents lowers the school dynamics/performance; new young people in turn will me out when they have children. That's a tough nut to crack.

[JawKneeQuest]

Originally Posted by FlyersFan

Used Google Earth to show what philly will generally look like after a couple of these projects are complete.

Seeing it like that, we're definetly going to lose MBC and Liberty 1/2 from the Art Museum skyline view. They all line up not so perfectly....

However, the South Street Bridge Skyline View, Is going to be great!



Larger Version Link

[flyflyfly]

Is there any vantage point from SSB where we can see both Comcast II and the Bell Atlantic Tower? Or are we essentially swapping Bell Atlantic Tower for Comcast II?

[josef]

Originally Posted by PhiLaw

I see it more as a push for action on school reform and other city services. Retaining 5/10 new residents who have not grown up here and whose connections within the city are relatively new is not a bad number. Scarcely 2/10 of my friends who moved to NYC after college still live there. 5/10 is still net positive.

However, the article is pointing out a vicious cycle. Young people are prone to move out when they have families; lack of children of affluent parents lowers the school dynamics/performance; new young people in turn will me out when they have children. That's a tough nut to crack.

There's so much going on with this whole report and the whole idea of getting people in your city.

I think the most important thing to realize is that, like Capsule F said, society, especially young people, are very transient. It's not like they're leaving Philadelphia because they dislike the entrenched Democratic ward system machine, or because Kenny Gamble just can't get his shit together on South Street. Things just change in your life that make you move. Anyone I've ever known who went anywhere went there because of either education or a job.

Something else that I think's important is that every city faces the issue of people leaving when they have a family. Again, there are reasons outside of a city's control: wanting larger space, wanting better schools, wanting a safer area. This happens in Philly just like it happens in New York, Boston, San Francisco, all of which face an extreme dearth of affordable single-family living that some people just want. (I actually think in this respect, Philly has the upper hand. We've got a beautiful stock of single family homes or previously-single family homes that you can combine again, if you wanted to. New York's too overdeveloped and Boston and SF are too small for this.)

But if you wanna talk about what you can do to keep the net flow of young people positive, I think it's so obvious that the city's actually been making useful changes; making the city's higher education institutions attractive to non-Phillyans, and getting companies in here who will hire the newly-graduated. I feel like both things are happening. (As a related aside, I thought the timing of this article was interesting. Comcast is going to bring thousands more jobs to the city, and this report's like, we need thousands more jobs in the city!)

As for things like crime and schools, they're things to figure out too. But you can hardly figure them out with a population drain. Get people coming in, these issues will follow. Remember, no one doesn't come to Philadelphia for college because they heard the 3rd grade education isn't the best.

Also, fun fact: I'm a Millennial who left Boston, the town made up of young people.

Sorry for the lengthy post. La Colombe makes me talky.

[tsarstruck]

Originally Posted by JawKneeQuest

What a baller Lord Foster is: he's figured out a way to make his buildings invisible to reflection! I keed, I keed. What a great view that'll be.

[iamrobk]

Originally Posted by josef

There's so much going on with this whole report and the whole idea of getting people in your city.

I think the most important thing to realize is that, like Capsule F said, society, especially young people, are very transient. It's not like they're leaving Philadelphia because they dislike the entrenched Democratic ward system machine, or because Kenny Gamble just can't get his shit together on South Street. Things just change in your life that make you move. Anyone I've ever known who went anywhere went there because of either education or a job.

Something else that I think's important is that every city faces the issue of people leaving when they have a family. Again, there are reasons outside of a city's control: wanting larger space, wanting better schools, wanting a safer area. This happens in Philly just like it happens in New York, Boston, San Francisco, all of which face an extreme dearth of affordable single-family living that some people just want. (I actually think in this respect, Philly has the upper hand. We've got a beautiful stock of single family homes or previously-single family homes that you can combine again, if you wanted to. New York's too overdeveloped and Boston and SF are too small for this.)

But if you wanna talk about what you can do to keep the net flow of young people positive, I think it's so obvious that the city's actually been making useful changes; making the city's higher education institutions attractive to non-Phillyans, and getting companies in here who will hire the newly-graduated. I feel like both things are happening. (As a related aside, I thought the timing of this article was interesting. Comcast is going to bring thousands more jobs to the city, and this report's like, we need thousands more jobs in the city!)

As for things like crime and schools, they're things to figure out too. But you can hardly figure them out with a population drain. Get people coming in, these issues will follow. Remember, no one doesn't come to Philadelphia for college because they heard the 3rd grade education isn't the best.

Also, fun fact: I'm a Millennial who left Boston, the town made up of young people.

Sorry for the lengthy post. La Colombe makes me talky.

Just speaking as a 24 year old, most people I know here wanna stay here, its just the job situation still kinda sucks (in general).

Also, apropos of nothing (except that I was walking through there the other day), anyone else wish we could blow up about half the buildings around Rittenhouse? Some of them are just so ugly...

[McBane]

Re Millennials, I think we just need to distinguish two very different points that posters have brought up.

Some are moving out of the regional altogether (which is worse) and that is directly correlated with the region's job market. If you live in Philly and you are offered a job in KoP, that doesn't necessarily mean that you'll move out of the city. Maybe you move from South Philly to Manayunk to ease the commute. But others are leaving b/c their particular field doesn't offer as many opportunities here as it does in LA, NY, SF, etc.

However, others are leaving the city but staying in the region. This usually happens when a married couple starts making babies. To accommodate a family, a couple might want a bigger home, dedicated parking, better schools, more outdoor space, less noise, etc. There are a million reasons why before we even bring up taxes and crime. Not that I'm shitting on the city or saying that these points can be countered (e.g., who cares about a yard if you're walking distance of a playground or park?). But these are the types of things that young city dwellers think about.

There are some nuances when thinking about why people are leaving and where they are moving to (suburbs or different metro).

[josef]

Originally Posted by McBane

Re Millennials, I think we just need to distinguish two very different points that posters have brought up.

Some are moving out of the regional altogether (which is worse) and that is directly correlated with the region's job market. If you live in Philly and you are offered a job in KoP, that doesn't necessarily mean that you'll move out of the city. Maybe you move from South Philly to Manayunk to ease the commute. But others are leaving b/c their particular field doesn't offer as many opportunities here as it does in LA, NY, SF, etc.

However, others are leaving the city but staying in the region. This usually happens when a married couple starts making babies. To accommodate a family, a couple might want a bigger home, dedicated parking, better schools, more outdoor space, less noise, etc. There are a million reasons why before we even bring up taxes and crime. Not that I'm shitting on the city or saying that these points can be countered (e.g., who cares about a yard if you're walking distance of a playground or park?). But these are the types of things that young city dwellers think about.

There are some nuances when thinking about why people are leaving and where they are moving to (suburbs or different metro).

Absolutely agree.

Related: This exit interview on Technically Philly with Tim Quirino from P'unk Ave and Geekadelphia. Some interesting feedback in the comments as well.

[Londonee]

Originally Posted by josef

Absolutely agree.

41% of people find the pew findings useless. Is that good, is that bad? Without reading the article, what's it relative to? Did they conduct the same poll in NYC and Boston and SF and determine that our Millenials are somehow different? As someone else pointed out, did they conduct a similar survey of Millenials 15 years ago to document a particular trend?

If not, where's the critical thinking and the analysis? Where's the relative data? Without any of that, they're simply numbers without context.

Edit to Add: I would fortune a guess that, nationally, these stats are more inclined to culture and geography than they are to schools, safety, and jobs. People on the East Coast are mobile and transient; more-so than piers in the middle of the country. Almost everyone in DC is a short-termer for career reasons--does that make it worse than a non-transient, stay-in-the-same-place my whole life kinda place like Tulsa?

[Nightman]

Good news, K-Mart is out. Hopefully PREIT has plans for something better.

http://www.bizjournals.com/philadelphia/...?ana=e_du_pub&s=article_du&ed=2014-01-23

[josef]

Originally Posted by Londonee

41% of people find the pew findings useless. Is that good, is that bad? Without reading the article, what's it relative to? Did they conduct the same poll in NYC and Boston and SF and determine that our Millenials are somehow different? As someone else pointed out, did they conduct a similar survey of Millenials 15 years ago to document a particular trend?

If not, where's the critical thinking and the analysis? Where's the relative data? Without any of that, they're simply numbers without context.

Edit to Add: I would fortune a guess that, nationally, these stats are more inclined to culture and geography than they are to schools, safety, and jobs. People on the East Coast are mobile and transient; more-so than piers in the middle of the country. Almost everyone in DC is a short-termer for career reasons--does that make it worse than a non-transient, stay-in-the-same-place my whole life kinda place like Tulsa?

Excellent points. And I haven't read it either, but the Philly.com article I read on the report didn't mention it in relation to any other time or city.

[ILovePhilly]

1. on Millennials (blarg, what a name we have)
I don't know which Census file the PEW 2012 numbers came from but I looked up the 2012 ACS numbers and got the familiar 1.547 million residents. The PEW numbers are showing 1.567!! That would be major news. We won't see the 2013 July 1-year estimates for the city from the Census until March.

So using the 2012 ACS numbers I downloaded:
Looking at the numbers.... between 2000 and 2012 the largest growth has been... in residents 55 to 64 (Empty nesters, another gross name for an age cohort). That is a story we've heard over and over. That group grew by 45,067 residents - a 36% increase over 2000. Will they stay or will they go when they age into the 'second phase' of retirement. This question has as much bearing on the future population of the city as the young people question.

Young people (25-34 so not counting college students) grew by 38,873 between 2000-2012... a 17% increase. Here's the wowza part, though, ... of those 38,873 new residents aged 25-34 a full 45% (17,675) of them arrived between 2010 and 2012. That's astonishing. That shows major acceleration.

The City continues to lose children and parents (35-44 yr olds). If you look at everybody up to 84 years of age and age the 2000 cohort up 10 years we only gained ground from 15-34 years of age and we lost ground in all other age cohorts (children under 10 we don't know about, they weren't in the 2010 cohort).

So this post as gotten ahead of me by now but I just wanted to say that there is a LOT going on in the demographics of the city right now. Look at that 2012 age pyramid. What a funky shape! I would be more interested in knowing the breakdown in 25-34 year olds based on where they were living 10 years ago. Are native born Philadelphians (or Philadelphia suburbanites) more likely to want to stay or leave than new comers? That's the important part of the question that will determine whether this present growth will lead to a future shift. If locals continue the same trends as the past but new comers don't that's when you see growth.

For my part, I'm not leaving.


2. Rumor has it the KMart and Burlington Coat Factory stores at the Gallery are closing this season.
PhillyMag reports that they got a tip from a KMart employee that management told them the store is closing so make way for a higher end store. Any speculation?

[Kidphilly]

http://centercityphila.org/pressroom/developments012314.php

http://www.nreadevelopment.com/Projects/GirardSquare.aspx

News on KMART closing, Burlington Coat Factory closing and new Girard estate potential project

[hammersklavier]

FWIW reading between the lines, a repositioning's upon us. Kmarts tend to close long after the store has "died", so to speak, and it isn't like the Gallery location isn't doing brisk business. (It's probably one of the busiest Kmarts left.) BCF is a bit different--the chain is popular enough that it doesn't actually "die" the way a Kmart does--closure of its stores are historically driven by landlord repositioning.

One could say PREIT is saying what kinds of tenants it doesn't want, but that would expose them to the enormous risk of losing money--No. They're the ones who pulled the plug on the leases. They've got to have something else lined up. It's the only reason for them to.

Originally Posted by Kidphilly

http://centercityphila.org/pressroom/developments012314.php

http://www.nreadevelopment.com/Projects/GirardSquare.aspx

News on KMART closing, Burlington Coat Factory closing and new Girard estate potential project

Kid, did you notice the renders on in your second link?





These renders appear to show a pedestrianized Ludlow Street, and another internal pedestrian mall. They also show redevelopment of the Snellenburg's stump and renovations to their Men's Annex and the Stephen Girard building. Are these newer renders than the SSH ones from a couple of years ago? They don't have quite the same floorplates, but they do have much better...I dunno, a je ne sais quoi...

[Kidphilly]

Originally Posted by hammersklavier

FWIW reading between the lines, a repositioning's upon us. Kmarts tend to close long after the store has "died", so to speak, and it isn't like the Gallery location isn't doing brisk business. (It's probably one of the busiest Kmarts left.) BCF is a bit different--the chain is popular enough that it doesn't actually "die" the way a Kmart does--closure of its stores are historically driven by landlord repositioning.

One could say PREIT is saying what kinds of tenants it doesn't want, but that would expose them to the enormous risk of losing money--No. They're the ones who pulled the plug on the leases. They've got to have something else lined up. It's the only reason for them to.

Kid, did you notice the renders on in your second link?



These renders appear to show a pedestrianized Ludlow Street, and another internal pedestrian mall. They also show redevelopment of the Snellenburg's stump and renovations to their Men's Annex and the Stephen Girard building. Are these newer renders than the SSH ones from a couple of years ago? They don't have quite the same floorplates, but they do have much better...I dunno, a je ne sais quoi...

I did notice and think this is sort of significant. Time will tell and the Ludlow appears new to me and a seemingly welcome addition

I wonder if the rumors of Bloomies at the Gallery hold any truth

will be exciting as more info comes out