Housing market

[drpgq]

I've made this point before, but if you charged the same tax rate on multi-residential as other housing classes, you would get a lot more apartments built. This shouldn't be a surprise.

[thistleclub]

From RAHB’s November 2013 Market Report:

The REALTORS® Association of Hamilton-Burlington (RAHB) reported 1,078 properties sold through the RAHB Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) system in November. This represents an 11.1 per cent increase in sales over November of last year. There were 1,298 properties listed in November, an increase of nine per cent over the same month last year. End-of-month listing inventory is 6.1 per cent lower than last year at the same time. For the first time this year, the average sale price did not show an increase compared to the same month last year. The average sale price in the residential market was virtually the same as last November; a decrease in the average sale price in the commercial market accounted for an overall decrease in average sale price compared to last year.

Average Sale Price, Nov 2013

Flamborough $570,136
Ancaster $469,150
Waterdown $468,967
Burlington $455,145
Glanbrook $401,912
Dundas $357,132
Grimsby $354,818
Stoney Creek $340,868
Hamilton West $304,966
Hamilton Mountain $277,932
Caledonia $275,790
Hamilton East $204,900
Hamilton Centre $185,042
Dunnville $181,786

Average Sale Price Increase ($), Nov 2013 vs Nov 2012

Glanbrook $99,914
Waterdown $63,940
Stoney Creek $36,628
Hamilton Centre $19,727
Hamilton West $17,816
Ancaster $17,180
Hamilton Mountain $12,914
Burlington $8,119
Dundas $2,290
Dunnville -$1,589
Hamilton East -$7,194
Grimsby -$7,854
Caledonia -$28,523
Flamborough -$75,273

Average Sale Price Increase (%), Nov 2013 vs Nov 2012

Glanbrook 33.08%
Waterdown 15.35%
Stoney Creek 12.04%
Hamilton Centre 11.93%
Hamilton West 6.20%
Hamilton Mountain 4.87%
Ancaster 3.80%
Burlington 1.82%
Dundas 0.65%
Dunnville -0.87%
Hamilton East -3.39%
Grimsby -2.17%
Caledonia -9.37%
Flamborough -11.66%

Source: RAHB Market Reports

[thistleclub]

Residential construction apparently improves housing starts numbers.

Also, press releases can be recycled into publicly-funded news.


Via CMHC's Preliminary Housing Start Data for November:

Dwelling Starts by Urban Area, Hamilton CMA

Single Detached
Nov 2012: 94
Nov 2013: 102
Jan-Nov 2012: 1,288
Jan-Nov 2013: 1,075

Row, Apt & Other
Nov 2012: 134
Nov 2013: 126
Jan-Nov 2012: 1,505
Jan-Nov 2013: 1,497

Total Starts
Nov 2012: 228
Nov 2013: 228
Jan-Nov 2012: 2,793
Jan-Nov 2013: 2,572

[thistleclub]

The above numbers have been revised in CMHC's latest Monthly Housing Statistics:

Dwelling Starts by Urban Area, Hamilton CMA

Single Detached
Nov 2012: 96
Nov 2013: 118
Jan-Nov 2012: 1,382
Jan-Nov 2013: 1,159

Row, Apt & Other
Nov 2012: 132
Nov 2013: 110
Jan-Nov 2012: 1,411
Jan-Nov 2013: 1,413

Total Starts
Nov 2012: 228
Nov 2013: 228
Jan-Nov 2012: 2,793
Jan-Nov 2013: 2,572

[thistleclub]

Also via CMHC’s Monthly Housing Statistics, Average Unit Selling Prices of all Newly Completed and Unabsorbed Single-detached and Semi-detached Dwellings, Hamilton CMA:

Jan 2011: $413,780
Feb 2011: $401,817
Mar 2011: $426,089
Apr 2011: $461,915
May 2011: $486,606
June 2011: $493,309
July 2011: $507,325
Aug 2011: $527,701
Sept 2011: $517,521
Oct 2011: $525,793
Nov 2011: $532,496
Dec 2011: $549,030
Jan 2012: $641,059
Feb 2012: $596,388
Mar 2012: $597,322
Apr 2012: $499,183
May 2012: $492,744
June 2012: $481,346
July 2012: $487,953
Aug 2012: $490,220
Sept 2012: $527,328
Oct 2012: $533,933
Nov 2012: $618,827
Dec 2012: $650,411
Jan 2013: $532,799
Feb 2013: $537,248
Mar 2013: $525,341
Apr 2013: $521,196
May 2013: $540,558
June 2013: $533,014
July 2013: $517,496
Aug 2013: $574,615
Sept 2013: $564,880
Oct 2013: $548,169
Nov 2013: $548,472

Interesting to see the month-to-month fluctuations.

[thistleclub]

Inspired by the apartment rental tangent in the James North thread, here's a yardstick for the Hamilton CMA's average market rents, via CMHC’s Rental Market Reports from this fall and last. Some unfortunate data masking in the second table makes it less than definitive but it gives you a general idea of the variations:

Private Apartment Average Rents ($) by Zone and Bedroom Type [Table 1.1.2]

Downtown Core
Bach: 541 (Oct 2011); 546 (Oct 2012); 571 (Oct 2013)
1 BR: 668 (Oct 2011); 688 (Oct 2012); 717 (Oct 2013)
2 BR: 819 (Oct 2011); 861 (Oct 2012); 895 (Oct 2013)
Central
Bach: 475 (Oct 2011); 526 (Oct 2012); 545 (Oct 2013)
1 BR: 644 (Oct 2011); 683 (Oct 2012); 687 (Oct 2013)
2 BR: 798 (Oct 2011); 836 (Oct 2012); 864 (Oct 2013)
West End
Bach: 585 (Oct 2011); 586 (Oct 2012); 644 (Oct 2013)
1 BR: 698 (Oct 2011); 738 (Oct 2012); 789 (Oct 2013)
2 BR: 812 (Oct 2011); 889 (Oct 2012); 960 (Oct 2013)
East End
Bach: 514 (Oct 2011); 541 (Oct 2012); 575 (Oct 2013)
1 BR: 651 (Oct 2011); 672 (Oct 2012); 720 (Oct 2013)
2 BR: 730 (Oct 2011); 729 (Oct 2012); 798 (Oct 2013)
Mountain
Bach: 559 (Oct 2011); 558 (Oct 2012); 582 (Oct 2013)
1 BR: 678 (Oct 2011); 702 (Oct 2012); 739 (Oct 2013)
2 BR: 789 (Oct 2011); 840 (Oct 2012); 877 (Oct 2013)
Hamilton City (ie. Wards 1-8)
Bach: 524 (Oct 2011); 537 (Oct 2012); 558 (Oct 2013)
1 BR: 659 (Oct 2011); 687 (Oct 2012); 717 (Oct 2013)
2 BR: 780 (Oct 2011); 814 (Oct 2012); 863 (Oct 2013)
Burlington
Bach: 870 (Oct 2011); 898 (Oct 2012); 932 (Oct 2013)
1 BR: 968 (Oct 2011); 989 (Oct 2012); 1,023 (Oct 2013)
2 BR: 1,090 (Oct 2011); 1,117 (Oct 2012); 1,148 (Oct 2013)
Hamilton CMA
Bach: 549 (Oct 2011); 569 (Oct 2012); 588 (Oct 2013)
1 BR: 722 (Oct 2011); 735 (Oct 2012); 766 (Oct 2013)
2 BR: 884 (Oct 2011); 886 (Oct 2012); 932 (Oct 2013)


Private Apartment Average Rents ($) by Year of Construction and Bedroom Type, Hamilton CMA [Table 1.2.2]

Bach
Pre 1960: 500 (Oct 2011); 510 (Oct 2012); 530 (Oct 2013)
1960-1974: 600 (Oct 2011); 606 (Oct 2012); 634 (Oct 2013)
1975-1989: 666 (Oct 2011); 722 (Oct 2013); 686 (Oct 2013)
1990-1999: ** (Oct 2011); ** (Oct 2012); ** (Oct 2013)
2000+: 410 (Oct 2011); 512 (Oct 2012); ** (Oct 2013)
1BR
Pre 1960: 641 (Oct 2011); 673 (Oct 2012); 687 (Oct 2013)
1960-1974: 756 (Oct 2011); 761 (Oct 2012); 785 (Oct 2013)
1975-1989: 731 (Oct 2011); 737 (Oct 2012); 795 (Oct 2013)
1990-1999: ** (Oct 2011); ** (Oct 2012); ** (Oct 2013)
2000+: 647 (Oct 2011); 649 (Oct 2012); ** (Oct 2013)
2BR
Pre 1960: 784 (Oct 2011); 814 (Oct 2012); 835 (Oct 2013)
1960-1974: 901 (Oct 2011); 895 (Oct 2012); 945 (Oct 2013)
1975-1989: 947 (Oct 2011); 948 (Oct 2012); 978 (Oct 2013)
1990-1999: 852 (Oct 2011); 921 (Oct 2012); ** (Oct 2013)
2000+: ** (Oct 2011); 825 (Oct 2012); ** (Oct 2013)

** Data suppressed to protect confidentiality or data not statistically reliable.

[thistleclub]

Some distinctive house tours are on view over at Fresh Brick.

[Berklon]

Some fantastic homes on that site.

Although it's disturbing looking at the great homes in the US they've displayed an their prices - really shows how much we're getting ripped off here.

[Innsertnamehere]

they also aren't in the middle of a large city. If you head out to Chatham you can get some cheap victorians as well.

[thistleclub]

Transfusion in the IV: Two-floor, 1,850 square foot two bedroom/two bath/den, newly renovated by Thier + Curran Architects. $1,895 /mo (plus utilities), available Feb. 1.

TCA refers to this as the Colangelo Loft and it's located at the NW corner of King and Walnut.

[coalminecanary]

Nice conversion - it's on the NW corner - the NE corner is "cityviews"

this is what the upper floors of the blanchard buildings could look like, even if every piece of timber inside the stone shells had been burned away and had to be redone from scratch

[Frankenrogers]

Originally Posted by thistleclub

Some distinctive house tours are on view over at Fresh Brick.

Nice to see my buddy Adam's site get a shout out here although I am embarrassed that I wasn't the one to do it.

[CaptainKirk]

Originally Posted by thistleclub

Transfusion in the IV: Two-floor, 1,850 square foot two bedroom/two bath/den, newly renovated by Thier + Curran Architects. $1,895 /mo (plus utilities), available Feb. 1.

TCA refers to this as the Colangelo Loft and it's located at the NW corner of King and Walnut.

Wow!

Very cool!

[thistleclub]

From RAHB’s December 2013 Market Report:

The REALTORS® Association of Hamilton-Burlington (RAHB) reported 743 property sales were processed through the RAHB Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) system in December. This represents a 21.6 per cent increase in sales over December of last year. There were 659 properties listed in December, a decrease of nine per cent over the same month last year. End-of-month listing inventory was 11.4 per cent lower than last year at the same time. The average sale price of $369,212 was 7.1 per cent higher than last December.


Average Sale Price, Dec 2013

Burlington $506,471
Ancaster $495,704
Flamborough $472,536
Waterdown $430,490
Dundas $411,424
Grimsby $349,259
Glanbrook $333,279
Stoney Creek $331,655
Hamilton West $295,466
Hamilton Mountain $285,395
Caledonia $259,333
Hamilton East $229,837
Dunnville $209,800
Hamilton Centre $166,611

Average Sale Price Increase ($), Dec 2013 vs Dec 2012

Dundas $82,157
Burlington $60,710
Waterdown $55,863
Stoney Creek $48,430
Hamilton East $37,889
Ancaster $21,826
Hamilton Mountain $19,475
Grimsby $13,896
Dunnville $5,050
Hamilton Centre $3,998
Hamilton West $1,092
Caledonia -$1,889
Glanbrook -$37,806
Flamborough -$86,146

Average Sale Price Increase (%), Dec 2013 vs Dec 2012

Dundas 24.95%
Hamilton East 19.74%
Stoney Creek 17.10%
Waterdown 14.91%
Burlington 13.62%
Hamilton Mountain 7.32%
Ancaster 4.61%
Grimsby 4.14%
Dunnville 2.47%
Hamilton Centre 2.46%
Hamilton West 0.37%
Caledonia -0.72%
Glanbrook -10.19%
Flamborough -15.42%

Source: RAHB Market Reports

[thistleclub]

Crunching RAHB's sales numbers for January through December creates a 2013 snapshot of sale prices across the Hamilton CMA:

Average Sale Price, Jan-Dec 2013

Flamborough $530,156
Burlington $484,314
Ancaster $481,836
Waterdown $441,864
Dundas $387,044
Grimsby $356,062
Glanbrook $348,542
Stoney Creek $327,525
Hamilton West $319,253
Hamilton Mountain $281,930
Hamilton East $209,852
Hamilton Centre $177,382

Average Sale Price Increase ($), Jan-Dec 2013 vs Jan-Dec 2012

Waterdown $43,954
Flamborough $33,113
Dundas $32,027
Burlington $31,601
Hamilton West $25,779
Ancaster $19,802
Hamilton Mountain $17,912
Stoney Creek $16,567
Hamilton Centre $15,912
Hamilton East $11,050
Glanbrook $8,677
Grimsby $7,226

Average Sale Price Increase (%), Jan-Dec 2013 vs Jan-Dec 2012

Waterdown 11.05%
Hamilton Centre 9.85%
Dundas 9.33%
Hamilton West 8.78%
Burlington 6.98%
Hamilton Mountain 6.78%
Flamborough 6.66%
Hamilton East 5.56%
Stoney Creek 5.33%
Ancaster 4.29%
Glanbrook 2.55%
Grimsby 2.07%

Volume of Units Sold (%), Jan-Dec 2013 vs Jan-Dec 2012

Hamilton Mountain +19.60%
Ancaster +12.93%
Glanbrook +11.98%
Hamilton Centre +11.12%
Grimsby 2.23%
Burlington +1.54%
Waterdown +0.86%
Hamilton East -0.12%
Hamilton West -3.68%
Dundas -7.65%
Flamborough -11.39%
Stoney Creek -11.78%


Source: Collated from RAHB Market Activity Reports



NOTE: RAHB's year-end math differs with the unofficial tally above.

[thistleclub]

Via CMHC:

Preliminary Housing Start Data, Hamilton CMA, Jan-Dec 2013 (Jan-Dec 2012)

Single-Detached: 1,159 (1,389)
All Others: 1,550 (1,580)
Total: 2,439 (2,754)

17% decline in single-detached starts, 11% decline in total starts, year over year.

[thistleclub]

Teranet-National Bank house price index returns to all-time high
(Canadian Press, Jan 14 2014)

Home prices in December returned to their all-time high of October, driven by gains in Edmonton, Vancouver and Toronto, according to the Teranet National Bank national composite house price index.

The index was up 0.1 per cent from November, bringing the year-over-year gain to 3.8 per cent.

However despite the gain, the index was down in eight of the 11 markets looked at on a month-over-month basis.

It was the first gain for Edmonton in five months and the first gain for Toronto in four months.

December prices were down from the month before in Winnipeg, Calgary, Ottawa-Gatineau, Quebec City, Montreal, Hamilton, Halifax and Victoria.

"Vancouver was the only market whose prices reached a new high in December," Teranet-National Bank said in a statement.

"Toronto prices are almost back to their peak of last August. For Montreal and Quebec City, on the other hand, December was respectively the sixth and fifth month without a monthly increase."

It was the fourth monthly decline in a row for Ottawa-Gatineau and the third in a row for Victoria.

[mattgrande]

Aren't prices almost always lower in December? I'd imagine there's less people looking to move right around Christmas.

[thistleclub]

Teranet says the percentage change of the average sale price in the Hamilton CMA for December 2013 was up 3.66% vs December 2012, but down 0.58% compared to November 2013.

RAHB says the percentage change of the average sale price in the Hamilton CMA for December 2013 was up 7.1% vs December 2012, and up 5.0% compared to November 2013.

The difference may be explained by the fact that Teranet’s National Bank House Price Index measures using sales pairs: Any property that has been sold at least twice is considered in the calculation of the index. RAHB, meanwhile, tallies all sales in a given market, dividing the total dollar volume of sales by the number of sales in that month, and complicates matters by including Haldimand County markets Dunnville and Caledonia in the mix.

Both measures have obvious limitations.

Originally Posted by mattgrande

Aren't prices almost always lower in December?

From last January: "The December price index was up 3.1 per cent in 2012 — the lowest increase in three years. On a month-to-month basis, the index was down 0.4 per cent from November — marking one of the weakest Decembers on record going back 13 years."

[thistleclub]

Why Canada’s cult of home ownership is in trouble
(The Globe and Mail, Rob Carrick, Jan 21 2014)

Despite all the financial obstacles they face, young adults have been eager believers in home ownership. Now, they’re thinking more critically about houses.

That’s the sense you get from the twentysomethings in Richard Harris’s fourth-year urban housing class in the geography program at McMaster University in Hamilton. For the second year in a row, Prof. Harris has given his students a fall assignment to construct an argument for either buying a home or renting.

“Last year, in a class of 29 students, a clear majority said they would buy,” Prof. Harris wrote me in an e-mail. “I was surprised because I had spent a lot of time speaking about the dangers of price bubbles, and about the opinion of most experts that the markets in many Canadian cities had moved, or were moving, into bubble territory.”

This year, only five of 23 said they’d buy and 18 chose to rent. “Although the assignment was the same and the content of my lectures pretty much the same, the pattern of response was very different,” Prof. Harris wrote.

While the size of his class is too small to be statistically definitive, Prof. Harris considered the swing in opinion noteworthy. It’s all that and more if you want to understand where our housing market is heading in the years ahead.

As aging baby boomers start to consider downsizing their homes, young first-time buyers will become increasingly important to the housing market. They’ve certainly shown the will to buy homes in the past two decades. Despite a weak job market for young workers and high student debt levels, young adults have streamed into the housing market.

Data supplied by Steve Pomeroy, a housing consultant and research associate at Carleton University, show that home ownership rates among people aged 25 to 34 rose from 45.8 per cent in the mid-1990s to a historic peak of 52.4 per cent in 2011. Home ownership levels in the entire population also increased, but not quite as much.

“The relative success of many young households in what most perceived to be overpriced and unattainable housing markets is both surprising and remarkable,” Mr. Pomeroy wrote in a report posted on his blog.

Low mortgage rates are a major reason that young people were able to get into the market, he said. But some also benefited job-wise from the strong economy until 2009, and looser mortgage rules of the previous decade helped, too. Anyone remember 35- and 40-year mortgages?

Mr. Pomeroy said it’s important to note that only half of younger households benefited from these conditions. The rest continue to struggle to find the jobs and wages that will get them into the housing market.

Even so, Prof. Harris was just a year ago presiding over a classroom dominated by home ownership true believers.



Read it in full here.