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Originally Posted by ByeByeBaby
I have every reason to doubt that there are serious private proposals to build HSR, because there isn't any HSR being built...
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I don’t think the government would say that if it wasn’t true. I don’t think they would have anything to gain by doing that. I suspect that the holdup is on the government’s side. They want to make sure we build the right project, after all. If we choose a 200 km/h train we’ll be stuck with it for quite some time. We couldn’t tear it out after 5 years and then put in the maglev that we really wanted, for example. I suspect the holdup is because the government believes that the faster options give us the most value, but the fast options are also the ones with the most questions.
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I'm sure there exist HSR manufacturers who are angling for a government subsidy so large that even they can make a profit on a low ridership demonstration train, and also a class of dreamers without the technical skill to actually make something happen who are all hat, no cattle. But neither of these are serious private proposals. If Talgo or Nippon Sharyo or Alstom or Hyundai want to prove that HSR works, they could fly every politician, engineer, planner and activist in North America to their home country for a hell of a lot less money than building a multi billion dollar demonstration line out of the goodness of their hearts.
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I’m sure it’s not a question of whether the technology works in a test facility. I’m sure the question is whether it works reliably in commercial use, and just as importantly whether it can be built without huge cost overruns. What’s the best way to deal with the risk of cost overruns? Shift the risk to the party that is best able to mitigate and manage it. Do you know about Strait Crossing Inc. and the Confederation Bridge in PEI? I think there are some similarities between that project and this one, and I think the BOOT contract structure that worked well there would work well will with this project as well.
As a final note, if you’re skeptical about the viability of this project please point to the parts of those reports that you don’t believe. Just saying that you don’t think it’s viable without addressing the professional analysis that shows that it is is not very convincing.