Calgary Public Transit II

[DizzyEdge]

Being that land North West of Tuscany and Rocky ridge is chock full of acreages, is it expected that Tuscany station might be the extent of the NW-S LRT line for a long time to come?

Any vague notions of when the other lines will get their next stations, such as Aspen Woods and 96th Ave for the W-NE line. I'm guessing they won't even consider building to 96th until all the sections between 88th Ave, Country Hills, Metis Tr and Stoney Tr are redeveloped, of which only about 15% is right now. Seems like Aspen Woods would be filled up much sooner. The area around Silverado also seems like it will be a decade or two before it warrants LRT. It's crazy how much the LRT has "caught up" as far as the existing lines. Anyone have any inside info on guestimated timelines?

[Chadillaccc]

I think the South Line will probably be the next to be extended, probably in a decade or so though, as you said. However, this lack of needs for extensions is probably a good thing as far as our new lines go. We can focus more on building the 203 and funding that rather than these huge 2 - 3 kilometer single-station extensions.

[mersar]

Originally Posted by DizzyEdge

Being that land North West of Tuscany and Rocky ridge is chock full of acreages, is it expected that Tuscany station might be the extent of the NW-S LRT line for a long time to come?

Any vague notions of when the other lines will get their next stations, such as Aspen Woods and 96th Ave for the W-NE line. I'm guessing they won't even consider building to 96th until all the sections between 88th Ave, Country Hills, Metis Tr and Stoney Tr are redeveloped, of which only about 15% is right now. Seems like Aspen Woods would be filled up much sooner. The area around Silverado also seems like it will be a decade or two before it warrants LRT. It's crazy how much the LRT has "caught up" as far as the existing lines. Anyone have any inside info on guestimated timelines?

Tuscany Station is planned to be the terminus for the NW line for pretty much the rest of time according to every plan I've seen. Even at the open house I went to years ago I recall one of the city people there saying that there is no intention to ever build the NW LRT beyond Tuscany as there isn't ever going to be anything there. Of course things can change, but there won't likely be another Tuscany sized development past there so population densities won't warrant it, and its starting to creep into the 'freaking long time to downtown' range in terms of travel time.

In terms of other stations, 212th Ave SW we may see in the next 10 years, but I'm not even confident in that. Theres a lot of development between Walden, Legacy and Silverado but its still a bit of 'in the middle of nowhere' location for the station. The next stations on the WLRT will be a hard sell for a while, theres still enough outrage from the cost of the WLRT itself that I doubt there will be the political will to even venture there. The NE also needs a lot of development before the next stations will be justifiable IMO, where the next station at 96th Ave is on three sides is farmland still. And as much as I'd love to see the CTrain get up to Skyview Ranch and Redstone, I can't even fathom that the CTrain would be built so it runs through essentially fields for miles until development catches up.

[DizzyEdge]

Although I understand the political implications, it really seems like Aspen Woods is the only station area that might be developed enough to warrant a station in the next 5 years. Agree with Chadillaccc though, it's a good thing.

[MalcolmTucker]

Because of changes to where and how the west LRT ended, it is going to be expensive to bring it to the intended LRT site. Now with the ring road looking like it will go forward, it might be time to do a routing study, just in case we want to find out the best way to get the line over the ring road, to a P&R station. It might be better to keep the line tracking NW past Aspen so a station could access the all directions Bow Trail interchange. Or rerouting to 17th Ave might be better. Better to plan now, for action in 10 - 30 years.

[RyLucky]

Everything depends on the Green Line. Depending how things go, it will likely be the primary funding priority for the next decade. That said, Aspen, Silverado, and the NE will be ready for extensions as soon as the money is available.

The NW/S line is also closing in on another problem. That is, there is no point of extending the line if every 4-car train is totally full anyway. Rather than extend the line, it is time to move the line under 8th ave and extend stations to 5 cars. Given how much that will cost, I think there is a good chance of this line being put on the backburner until the Green Line is built. Notably, Green Line construction will demand 8th ave subway planning. Once 201 has 5-car stations and doesn't share track Downtown, we can entertain extending the line past Tuscany and Silverado.

[RyLucky]

Originally Posted by MalcolmTucker

Because of changes to where and how the west LRT ended, it is going to be expensive to bring it to the intended LRT site. Now with the ring road looking like it will go forward, it might be time to do a routing study, just in case we want to find out the best way to get the line over the ring road, to a P&R station. It might be better to keep the line tracking NW past Aspen so a station could access the all directions Bow Trail interchange. Or rerouting to 17th Ave might be better. Better to plan now, for action in 10 - 30 years.

Good point. It wouldn't hurt to at least protect a ROW.

[DizzyEdge]

Looking at the land West of 69th st station it seems there's far more opportunity for somewhat dense development along 17th ave, as you go north it's quickly all acreages.

https://maps.google.ca/maps?saddr=AB-1A+...xp=0&noal=0&sort=def&mra=ls&z=14&start=0

Putting it another way, due to existing acreages it seems like Bow Trail could only ever push futher west to 101st St, whereas in theory 17th ave could push to 141st st

[You Need A Thneed]

I suspect that the 88th Ave station, and the Skyview station on the NE line will be in high demand within 10 years.

88th Ave may be need for it's park and ride within five, but if the developer starts building in the area around that station too, it may be need for more than just it's park and ride within 5 years.

[freeweed]

Originally Posted by DizzyEdge

Being that land North West of Tuscany and Rocky ridge is chock full of acreages, is it expected that Tuscany station might be the extent of the NW-S LRT line for a long time to come?

The NW part of the city is basically built out, at least in that direction. There will be very little development in the next 20-30 years, especially with the city concentrating on densification. It would take a massive shift in public policy and a huge increase in land values to even start buying up those acreages. There's also a ton of institutional/industrial land in the area that isn't going anywhere, for a long time. Landfills, prisons, asphalt plants, etc. I just don't see much happening until Calgary gets into the 2-3 million range. It's just not where the city is going to build out in the near or medium term, there's so much more available land in other areas.

And as mersar points out, much further along and you're almost talking GO train type situation. Maybe that's a bit of an exaggeration (it's a 25 minute ride into downtown, tops) but still... eventually we're getting into rush hour commuter rail only. And I don't see Calgary paying to extend lines to stations that aren't serviced outside of rush hour, like some places do.

To be honest I'm still shocked that Tuscany station went ahead. Obviously as a Royal Oakian I'm thrilled, and as a transit fanatic, I'm stunned that we'll have stations right to the edge of the city, essentially. This is how transit should be done! Given unlimited funds, obviously - I know there's a lot of debate about whether the station makes any sense given what else the money could have been spent on.

[Ramsayfarian]

Based on my unscientific study of seeing 3 of those bendy buses jackknifed in a 6 block radius, Calgary Transit might want to rethink using them on days like today.

[sportsdude]

Does anyone have any sources or links that show the amount of common sunken costs that BRT has with LRT?

For I believe most Calgarians have an unfair stigma against bus transit and this transitway (Southeast portion) will turn into a low ridership white elephant with some deep southeast users will still drive to Somerset for the train.

Calgary needs the 8th ave subway sooner than later before it turns into a Toronto Downtown Relief Line situation and we should build the underground section of greenline at the same time aswell. I like how council views the greenline as one project vs (NC vs SE situation) however we should have some vision and plan for a large interchange station at 2nd ST S.W & 7th/8th ave that will allow Green and Red line users switch seamlessly underground while the Blue line will have a small transfer through the Dome/Home/Bankers Hall complex. This will allow for only one construction period and cheaper construction compared to a more typical reactive attitude we have seen. Build all of these stations with 6 car capacity so we can long term capacity and not deal with another platform extension mess we have seen for the last 5 years. Then the city could focus on some projects to increase frequency and shorten travel times of the South LRT and help Macleod Trail congestion which would please both transit and car commuters by finding exclusive right of way solutions at 36th Ave, 39th Ave, 50th Ave, 58th Ave, 61st Ave, Heritage Drive, James Mckevitt and 162nd Ave. Then have a BRT solution running S.E people to Somerset instead of coming up with some half-baked solution this Southeast Transitway is.

Any thoughts?

[Jimby]

Originally Posted by Ramsayfarian

Based on my unscientific study of seeing 3 of those bendy buses jackknifed in a 6 block radius, Calgary Transit might want to rethink using them on days like today.

I just came home from Inglewood and I was going to say the same thing! Was that where you saw the bendy buses?

[RyLucky]

Originally Posted by sportsdude

Does anyone have any sources or links that show the amount of common sunken costs that BRT has with LRT?

For I believe most Calgarians have an unfair stigma against bus transit and this transitway (Southeast portion) will turn into a low ridership white elephant with some deep southeast users will still drive to Somerset for the train.

Calgary needs the 8th ave subway sooner than later before it turns into a Toronto Downtown Relief Line situation and we should build the underground section of greenline at the same time aswell. I like how council views the greenline as one project vs (NC vs SE situation) however we should have some vision and plan for a large interchange station at 2nd ST S.W & 7th/8th ave that will allow Green and Red line users switch seamlessly underground while the Blue line will have a small transfer through the Dome/Home/Bankers Hall complex. This will allow for only one construction period and cheaper construction compared to a more typical reactive attitude we have seen. Build all of these stations with 6 car capacity so we can long term capacity and not deal with another platform extension mess we have seen for the last 5 years. Then the city could focus on some projects to increase frequency and shorten travel times of the South LRT and help Macleod Trail congestion which would please both transit and car commuters by finding exclusive right of way solutions at 36th Ave, 39th Ave, 50th Ave, 58th Ave, 61st Ave, Heritage Drive, James Mckevitt and 162nd Ave. Then have a BRT solution running S.E people to Somerset instead of coming up with some half-baked solution this Southeast Transitway is.

Any thoughts?

I agree with the bold part. If I had $8B, I'd buy the Green line and bury the Red Line at once. I think you're argument is a fair one (to prioritize burying the Red before Green, if I understand you correctly), but the problem is it leaves the SE with awful transit for another 20 years. BRT to Somerset (or some such plan) won't cut it.

That said, if I knew that $500M could either bury the Red Line or build a 40-km BRT route... well... I'm not sure. I think I'd still have to side with Green just because they have nothing. But I'm not sure. Either way, yes, 2nd St and 7/8 aves should be an interconnected station.

As for stigma, we all prefer train, but there are an awful lot of crush-load buses in this city. BRT won't have as many riders, but I think it's mainly because they travel time will be 1.5-2x more than LRT could be. Prior to the WLRT, the 301 "BRT" had the strongest bus ridership in the city.

[sportsdude]

I honestly believe the future of the LRT network hinges on perhaps the biggest event to the Canadian Confederation since the introduction of GST. Next year the 25 year equalization agreement expires and will most likely the system will see overall payments shrunk as Harper says he will introduce electricity as a revenue resource and have it based on the 10 province average electricity rate so Manitoba and Quebec who have been purposely undercharging their domestic markets to starve their crown corporations of profits that could be used against them in the current formula and based on numerous articles on this issue have pointed out this will put Manitoba in solid have territory and reduce Quebecs equalization payments from 70-90% depending on the source. Also currently 70ish% of Canadians are in have-not provinces which means that the system is broken as the current system does not take the fact of higher cost of living in provinces like Alberta, BC and Ontario compared to low costs in Atlantic Canada.

All indications point the overall system will be shrunk as Harper has been the first majority government to have control despite little to no Quebec seats and the ABC (Anything But Conservatives) campaign ran in Atlantic Canada means he will not pander to these areas. If anything he will gain more votes in Ontario despite being a "have not province" they still are at a net negative of 3 billion dollars collected by the federal government and would be seen as great positive as that province has kept that Canada alive along with Alberta paying the vast majority of equalizations and have finally fallen on hard times.

Why does this have to do with Calgary Public Transit? Because the federal government will have extra newfound billions and most likely increase public transit funding and also shrinking the gap of federal services provided vs taxes collected in have provinces.

[RyLucky]

I'm not so sure the electricty/equalization deally will play out the way you say... especially with the result of the Feds having billions extra to spend on public transit.

However, I can see a gradual decentralization of taxation and power happening in Canada over the next few decades. I can also foresee a growing commitment to transit infrastructure.

[MalcolmTucker]

With so much of the BRT funding going to assembling the ROW and building bridges, you'll have wasted costs on the transition, and some big headaches for conversion (hopefully only a year), but as long as the bridges are wide enough for utilities to be bolted on and heavy duty enough to handle two 150m trains, there shouldn't be much hard costs wasted. I think you should be able to rebuild the bottle necked portions in one construction season, so it should be less painful than Ottawa.

As long as the curves and elevations are engineered right the first time.

[MalcolmTucker]

Within a meaningful time frame, the only new funding for transit will be from the provincial government or self raised funds. Even a $3 billion dollar a year program from the federal government only comes out to $100 million for the city. Sure it sounds like a lot, but you can't do much with that from a grand capital project point of view. It would help, but not in a transformational way.

As for equalization - until you are sure you want no seats in all the jurisdictions impacted by a change, it won't be touched. The massive costs from interprovincial migration are already making it hard to keep up on infrastructure in Alberta and Saskatchewan, can we afford to accelerate that?

[sportsdude]

To clarify and summarize my previous post. Equalization payments formula are going to be changed this next year. It is expected that the two largest changes to the equalization formula with average cost of living adjustments (Atlantic Canada) and electricity (Manitoba, Quebec) as a resource. These two changes will greatly effect all the have not provinces and is supposed to shrink equalization by a significant amount. In 2013-2014 Canada is expected to pay 16.1 billion in these payments and lets say this new agreement conservatively shrinks this number by 50% this frees 8 billion dollars that could stop federal deficit or be used for federal spending.

The more speculative half that I left out in my first post but seems to be the sentiment of the have provinces/Ontario are going to make an argument that a certain minimum % lets say 80-90% of the tax dollars collected from their jurisdiction will have to remain and be spent in the province because recent reports are showing that the "have not" provinces have significantly better government services than the haves which was the ironic opposite intention was this program was started by Diefenbaker . This link below highlights this

http://www.fraserinstitute.org/uploadedF...incial-subsidies-in-federal-programs.pdf

Alberta has paid a net 15-20 billion dollars to the confederation for the last 10 years which turns out to be anywheres from 45-60% of the tax revenues are being spent here. This could lead to Alberta seeing an extra 5-10 billion dollars of federal spending much of it could be spent on solving the infrastructure crunch that will lead to public transit funding. The link below shows the net contribution Alberta has made to confederation and the percentage we have received of our tax dollars in federal spending.

http://www.finance.alberta.ca/publicatio...ta-net-contribution-to-confederation.pdf

[Policy Wonk]

Originally Posted by Ramsayfarian

Based on my unscientific study of seeing 3 of those bendy buses jackknifed in a 6 block radius, Calgary Transit might want to rethink using them on days like today.

I passed two of them on Berkshire Blvd, people were driving over the median into the east bound lane to get past them.