SAN DIEGO | Boom Rundown, Vol. 2

[dales5050]

Originally Posted by spoonman

The only time the airport is busy is during holidays? Let's not make things up here.

The airport, particularly T1, has been chronically congested, and I'm not sure what your childhood has to do with this. There are numerous reasons why people fly. Business, health, leisure, military, sports, government,etc. There may not be that many Fortune 500 companies in SoCal these days, but there are still plenty of companies creating travel demand, in addition to the other sources I mentioned.

As others have said, there are a clash of interests here.

Forward looking people see the airport, and say gee-whiz, we would have more international flights if we had a runway that didn't require long-haul flights to be weight restricted. This would be good for the city AND citizens, by offering more destinations, and bringing in more foreign travelers. With a larger facility, there would also be more room to support more overnighting, and maintenance facilities for aircraft, creating more opportunities to become a focus city for more airlines, and cargo.

Instead, many people say gee, the airport can still get me back to Timbucktoo at Christmas, so it must be meeting all of our city's needs.

I see where you're coming from and have a couple of points to add. I avoid flying SW for multiple reasons and I am a Delta flyer so take this with a grain of salt...

I think the most issues with T1 can be resolved with a new terminal similar to T2. The UT had a small blurb on moving T1 to the other side but I think they could do better than that.

What if they were to demolish the Commuter terminal and build a new T1 there? You could then move the car rental lots either between T1 and T2 or do some sort of sky bridge over N. Harbor to the existing lots. Although, it would be great if those lots and their bay views were repurposed for something better.

As for International flights...what are the odds that even if San Diego built a massive terminal say at Miramar they would come? I am no expert but I know about HUBs and how they try and funnel International flights to those. When you add in the consolidation of airlines, the odds of getting a HUB become smaller IMHO.

Personally, I think the most realistic and best plan moving forward now that $1B was spent on T2 is to rebuild T1 to keep SW customers happy and possibly expand another airline like Virgin America. Currently Virgin only goes to SFO. If they could expand to include the major HUBs like NYC, Chicago, Dallas and Boston...that would be a massive win.

[psychotron]

I think San Diego can definitely support 2 airports and don't think a new airport would signal a death of SAN. I split my time between SD and Houston, so I've flown in and out of IAH and HOU numerous times. Hobby is the home for Southwest/AirTran and JetBlue and basically revolves around domestic flights now that Bush has taken over international and cargo duties. Even with Bush, Hobby is still currently expanding and upgrading. I love flying out of Hobby because it's a lot less congested and much closer to the city center. I can see SAN becoming what Hobby is to Houston, a convenient airport that serves domestic needs through just a few airlines, while a larger airport (ideally at Miramar w/ 2050 RTP transportation) would handle international and cargo operations.

Facing reality though, my hopes for a new airport at Miramar are pretty small. Like others here, I think the focus should be on replacing T1. There is a fantastic thread on airliners.net about the future of SAN, including the placement of a rebuilt T1 and expanded operations.

http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/5900302/

[Derek]

Originally Posted by dales5050

As for International flights...what are the odds that even if San Diego built a massive terminal say at Miramar they would come? I am no expert but I know about HUBs and how they try and funnel International flights to those. When you add in the consolidation of airlines, the odds of getting a HUB become smaller IMHO.

Personally, I think the most realistic and best plan moving forward now that $1B was spent on T2 is to rebuild T1 to keep SW customers happy and possibly expand another airline like Virgin America. Currently Virgin only goes to SFO. If they could expand to include the major HUBs like NYC, Chicago, Dallas and Boston...that would be a massive win.

San Diego would certainly get at least a few more international flights if a new, larger airport were built. It's a very popular tourist for both Europeans and Asians (and Australians). I'm pretty sure SAN would never get a direct flight to Sydney, but I'd say direct flights to Paris, Frankfurt and Beijing (on those country's flag carriers) are very possible.

Portland has even had direct service to Frankfurt on Lufthansa as recently as 2009 and Mexicana had flights to Guadalajara and Mexico City as recently as 2008, but with the collapse of the economy, that service has ended. We still have non stops to Tokyo and Amsterdam on Delta, and there are talks about new Paris, China and Mexico routes as well. I'm sure if the economy picks up, we'll see a couple more international carriers in the near future. Why? Because we have the gate capacity and 2 runways of ample length to accommodate such flights.


One last thing, unless Virgin turns their finances around, they won't be flying anywhere. Just saying.

[dales5050]

Originally Posted by Derek

San Diego would certainly get at least a few more international flights if a new, larger airport were built. It's a very popular tourist for both Europeans and Asians (and Australians). I'm pretty sure SAN would never get a direct flight to Sydney, but I'd say direct flights to Paris, Frankfurt and Beijing (on those country's flag carriers) are very possible.

Don't get me wrong. I wish they moved the airport to Miramar back in the 90s (I think that's when it was a hot issue) but I just don't see a good return. It looks like the Denver Airport cost $4.8 Billion back in 96. Say the new airport would cost just $4 Billion, would that be justified by 'at least a few more' international flights? Honestly, I don't think it would.

Now if San Diego could land a HUB, with an airline like Delta or on the new combined US Airways/American, where there would be 1,000s of jobs supporting the HUB maybe.

Personally, I think a revamped Terminal 1 with just as much luxury as Terminal 2 and a very easy to access car rental facility would be more than enough to mitigate the majority of the issues.

Originally Posted by Derek

One last thing, unless Virgin turns their finances around, they won't be flying anywhere. Just saying.

Bummer. Did not know they were in trouble. By far the best domestic coach experience out there.

[SDfan]

Originally Posted by psychotron

Facing reality though, my hopes for a new airport at Miramar are pretty small. Like others here, I think the focus should be on replacing T1. There is a fantastic thread on airliners.net about the future of SAN, including the placement of a rebuilt T1 and expanded operations.

http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/5900302/

This is awesome! Thank you.

[SDfan]

Originally Posted by Urbanize_It

Agree to disagree on this one. The only reason for the limited international flights is limited demand. It is proven the flights can exist and that the runway deficiency argument is a fallacy. 100% If there were more demand there would be more international service. Period. With improved airliner efficiency (like the Dreamliner), moving of puddle jumper regional services to Palomar and major international services (south/centeral America and beyond) through TJ Lindbergh has a loooooong way to go before being maxed out.

Again, I don’t think this will happen, but completely agree that is a danger in this city under some of the current policy decisions. That said, still a way better existence than becoming LA#2!

Completely agree!

I concede that my “hope” for a real and super efficient rail network throughout Socal is a very long way off. Probably not in my lifetime. This would be an example of MY “magical thinking”.

Fair.

[eburress]

Originally Posted by dales5050

Don't get me wrong. I wish they moved the airport to Miramar back in the 90s (I think that's when it was a hot issue) but I just don't see a good return. It looks like the Denver Airport cost $4.8 Billion back in 96. Say the new airport would cost just $4 Billion, would that be justified by 'at least a few more' international flights? Honestly, I don't think it would.

Now if San Diego could land a HUB, with an airline like Delta or on the new combined US Airways/American, where there would be 1,000s of jobs supporting the HUB maybe.

Personally, I think a revamped Terminal 1 with just as much luxury as Terminal 2 and a very easy to access car rental facility would be more than enough to mitigate the majority of the issues.



Bummer. Did not know they were in trouble. By far the best domestic coach experience out there.

I think you're on the right track. It's not just the additional flights (I suspect it would be more than just a few), but the industrial aviation that would become possible as well as San Diego becoming a legitimate business destination. Landing a hub would also become a possibility (Southwest's western hub?).

[dl3000]

If Miramar doesn't happen, then we'll just have to wait until aircraft technology advances to the extent where Lindbergh's present limitations are no longer relevant, say vertical takeoff or something.

[spoonman]

Originally Posted by dales5050

Don't get me wrong. I wish they moved the airport to Miramar back in the 90s (I think that's when it was a hot issue) but I just don't see a good return. It looks like the Denver Airport cost $4.8 Billion back in 96. Say the new airport would cost just $4 Billion, would that be justified by 'at least a few more' international flights? Honestly, I don't think it would.

Now if San Diego could land a HUB, with an airline like Delta or on the new combined US Airways/American, where there would be 1,000s of jobs supporting the HUB maybe.

Personally, I think a revamped Terminal 1 with just as much luxury as Terminal 2 and a very easy to access car rental facility would be more than enough to mitigate the majority of the issues.



Bummer. Did not know they were in trouble. By far the best domestic coach experience out there.

All of the rental car facilities are being combined into a large parking structure off of Washington/PCH on the north side of the airport. This facility is curretly under construction. Once complete, it will free up many acres of space currently occupied by lots (Harbor Island, etc.). This space should allow for either more development, or more space for future terminals/parking.

[202_Cyclist]

Originally Posted by dl3000

If Miramar doesn't happen, then we'll just have to wait until aircraft technology advances to the extent where Lindbergh's present limitations are no longer relevant, say vertical takeoff or something.

Or RNAV and RNP procedures could possibly narrow the flight paths into the airport, leaving room to build taller elsewhere.

[tyleraf]

Great article on the future of San Diego's planning. I'm excited about the prospects. Fulton has mentioned raising the height limit in midway district!!!!!!! Also mention is the fixing of the uptown community plan and the removal of the interim height limits. http://m.utsandiego.com/news/2013/nov/25/planning-fulton/

[spoonman]

Originally Posted by tyleraf

Great article on the future of San Diego's planning. I'm excited about the prospects. Fulton has mentioned raising the height limit in midway district!!!!!!! Also mention is the fixing of the uptown community plan and the removal of the interim height limits. http://m.utsandiego.com/news/2013/nov/25/planning-fulton/

Wow, that touches on most everything. It is very encouraging that Fulton's plans seem to acknowledge all of the important considerations for density at each location.

[spoonman]

http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/airline-business/2013/11/san-diegos-new-mexican-gateway-tijuana/

^ According to this article, the operator of TIJ Airport is trying to use the new cross border terminal to leverage a new flight from TIJ to South Korea.

[aerogt3]

Originally Posted by eburress

What I would consider to be exciting would be a new airport built at Miramar that brings in billions of dollars and thousands of new jobs to the local economy

You realize it also TAKES billions of dollars out of the economy too, right? Where do you think the money comes from? Hint: it doesn't get dropped off free of charge from a magical direct flight from Berlin.

Originally Posted by eburress

If I were a business person, Asian or otherwise, a pedestrian bridge to a Mexican airport would further underscore/reinforce the reasons I am NOT doing business in San Diego.

Multi-million dollar decisions on where to do business are not based on the ease of a flight connection. Does it play into the equation? Yes. But international business deals are worth BIG money, and the labor expense of employees spending an extra 2 hours in transit makes up a proportional amount of the decision..... i.e., virtually zero %.

"Should we shift $100 million in manufacturing business to the TJ-SD area? Costs are much more competitive than in the greater LA area, and could save us millions."

"No, the flight that we take for annual contract negotiations to SD requires an extra connection." Right

Originally Posted by Derek

San Diego would certainly get at least a few more international flights if a new, larger airport were built. It's a very popular tourist for both Europeans and Asians (and Australians). I'm pretty sure SAN would never get a direct flight to Sydney, but I'd say direct flights to Paris, Frankfurt and Beijing (on those country's flag carriers) are very possible.

They are already possible. BA has been flying to London for what, two years now? That same service could be operated to Paris, Madrid, BCN, FRA, etc. *if there were demand.* I am pretty sure Lufthansa has done the numbers, and found that seats wouldn't be filled flying FRA to SAN. Probably because every German traveler that ever goes to San Diego, also goes to LA or SF as part of their trip. So a direct flight to San Diego isn't really providing much benefit.

I realize this is a skyscraperforum, but some people here let this "if you build it they will come" idea trump the basic principles of economics. You can build the largest airport in the world in the SD area, and you will NOT have the direct flights to any destination until there is economics demand to fill the seats.

Why? Because we have the gate capacity and 2 runways of ample length to accommodate such flights.

So does San Diego. You have AMS and Tokyo, but we have Tokyo and LHR. Again, the SAN-LHR flight could easily to be any other western European airport. You cannot compare PDX and SAN, because Portland does not have LAX, John Wayne, and Long Beach 100 only miles away.

[202_Cyclist]

aerogt3:

You realize it also TAKES billions of dollars out of the economy too, right? Where do you think the money comes from? Hint: it doesn't get dropped off free of charge from a magical direct flight from Berlin.

Correct, but the land currently used by Lindbergh could then be redeveloped. I assume this land is very valuable.

So does San Diego. You have AMS and Tokyo, but we have Tokyo and LHR. Again, the SAN-LHR flight could easily to be any other western European airport. You cannot compare PDX and SAN, because Portland does not have LAX, John Wayne, and Long Beach 100 only miles away.

Fair point but the distance from PDX - SEA is comparable (I think three hours) to SAN - LAX. Portland is also a mini-hub for Alaska Airlines, which had good code-share arrangements with Delta at Seattle. I don't think there is anything similar at San Diego, as it isn't a hub for any carrier.

[spoonman]

Up until this year, there were a few basic reasons why SAN did not have more direct long haul service. Runway length and terrain were the main reasons, as even with the possibility of high passenger demand, many long haul routes could not be profitable with weight restrictions necessary to take off from SAN. The 787 is supposed to make this a moot point once all airlines have them at their disposal. (In the next few years as more airlines take delivery of the 787, we may indeed see additional long haul routes.)

The other major reason would be lack of feeder traffic, as most regional (and national, going east) feeder traffic is routed through LAX. This is where we get into a discussion about whether or not SAN could/should be a hub.

SAN is on the way to very little compared to LAX, SFO, and other airports (think great circle to Asia, or even Europe). As such, SAN has to be a "hub" based on it's own merit (traffic volume) without the feeder traffic that many other airports have the luxury of getting.

As it stands today, I would say that there would be a better chance of pulling in feeder traffic and creating a hub if there were better aircraft overnight and maintenance facilities, and a longer runway which allowed for a greater variety of long haul aircraft. But even given that, I would expect that we wouldn't see much of a shift until the population grew further, as again, we are out of the way.

***

I'm dreaming out loud here, but the more I think about it, the more I like the idea of a true shared airport with Tijuana from a hub perspective (instead of the bridge or SAN). If you look at a map of TIJ, you can see that there is plenty of room on the northeast portion of the airport for new sterile US terminals. If sterile facilities were created, and the two governments agreed to waive customs fees depending on the origination of the flights, this could actually work. This would make TIJ a hub airport servicing an area of over 5 million people, and could seriously contend with other airports in the region, due to additional feeder traffic from Mexico and the US.

[SDCAL]

Originally Posted by spoonman

I'm dreaming out loud here, but the more I think about it, the more I like the idea of a true shared airport with Tijuana from a hub perspective (instead of the bridge or SAN). If you look at a map of TIJ, you can see that there is plenty of room on the northeast portion of the airport for new sterile US terminals. If sterile facilities were created, and the two governments agreed to waive customs fees depending on the origination of the flights, this could actually work. This would make TIJ a hub airport servicing an area of over 5 million people, and could seriously contend with other airports in the region, due to additional feeder traffic from Mexico and the US.

The only problem I see here is that having our regions main international airport in TJ would be pretty far distance-wise for north county. Are people from Carlsbad going to want to drive to the border to catch a flight? If this happened I could see the Carlsbad airport becoming a "shuttle service" up to LA for people to catch their international flights there thus defeating the point of a bi-national airport serving the entire region of 5 million people.

We would need way better mass transit that seamlessly links north county down to the border.

Let's face it, the most logical place for our airport is Miramar.

I am 100% certain that some day Miramar will be relocated. It's basic geography and demographics.

The only question is, will it be in any of our lifetimes - at minimum I would say it's 25 years into the future.

[202_Cyclist]

SDCAL:

We would need way better mass transit that seamlessly links north county down to the border.

If Amtrak can serve Vancouver, Canada, I've wondered why there couldn't either be a station right in Tijuana or right across the border in the US.

The only problem I see here is that having our regions main international airport in TJ would be pretty far distance-wise for north county. Are people from Carlsbad going to want to drive to the border to catch a flight? If this happened I could see the Carlsbad airport becoming a "shuttle service" up to LA for people to catch their international flights there thus defeating the point of a bi-national airport serving the entire region of 5 million people.

This shows, again, what a missed opportunity it was not to turn El Toro into an international airport.

I hope that California Pacific Airlines will begin operating at Palomar. Although small and offering limited service, this airline could accommodate demand in northern San Diego Co, western Riverside, and southen Orange County.

[tyleraf]

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! I hope you guys all have a nice day with your families.

[tyleraf]

San Diego's Olympic bid is gaining steam. Even Fulton has been talking about the potential benefits it would have on the city. Also, next week the County Board of Supervisors will decide whether to endorse the effort. http://www.kpbs.org/news/2013/nov/27/san-diego-olympics-2024-supervisors-committee/