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  #341  
Old Posted Oct 2, 2013, 3:06 PM
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the conclusion I think anyone should draw is that the condo market has cooled; expect a lot less development activity over the next two or three years, especially on very large projects (by Ottawa standards).
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  #342  
Old Posted Oct 2, 2013, 3:07 PM
JackBauer24 JackBauer24 is offline
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I certainly hope not. I don't think the height of the project was the reason for the slow sales - there are many factors at play; the economy, mortgage rates, aging demographics, poor marketing, poor design, and a builder who has a checkered past in terms of quality.

But if people start pointing to the height being the issue, I hope Soho Italia sells out in weeks when it's finally launched to prove them wrong.

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Originally Posted by ars View Post
I have a feeling that the only thing developers will conclude from this is that "Ottawa doesn't want tall unique buildings, but rather short stubby boring ugly beige buildings"
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  #343  
Old Posted Oct 2, 2013, 4:05 PM
OTSkyline OTSkyline is online now
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Sad... Could the whole Little Italy plan be shelved?

Also, I find it stupid that people say there is a "cooling" of the condo market. Prices are getting ridiculously out of hand, how about just lowering prices, then you'll have lots of sales. Everyone I know who are university graduates with good/ok paying jobs can't afford to buy houses or condos therefore EVERYONE is still renting...

I, for once, would love to buy a condo but it's not do-able but I can't afford it At $250,000 for a tiny 1 bedroom (not including taxes, condo fees, hydro & heating etc..). Why not build and launch condo towers with prices like these:
1 bed: 150,000
2 bed: 200,000
3 bed: 275,000 ?

-Probably because of greedy developpers...
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  #344  
Old Posted Oct 2, 2013, 4:12 PM
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Now that they have their height approvals in the bag, maybe this pause is a chance for the various developers to sit down and integrate their plans — pedestrian circulation, public transit, access to Dows Lake, and how they fit in and function as an anchor to Little Italy. It would be nice if they pooled their community benefit to something substantial, like redesigning and rebuilding Carling station so it works better as a focal point to this area.
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  #345  
Old Posted Oct 2, 2013, 4:23 PM
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Originally Posted by OTSkyline View Post
Also, I find it stupid that people say there is a "cooling" of the condo market.
"stupid"? the pace of sales and the construction of new units are both slowing down, that is to say, the market is easing on both the supply and demand side after a period of "boom". If that's not a cooling of the market, then I welcome your suggestion of what else to call it.

The incentive to lower prices is if you have surplus supply, but we're talking about supply that doesn't exist yet, "unbuilt future supply."

Unless you need sales to meet cash-flow requirements (not the case with Claridge from what I understand), I don't think you would respond to a cooling market by slashing prices and lowering your profitability, you would put your approved plans on hold, wait out the dip, and hit the ground running when demand picks up again.
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  #346  
Old Posted Oct 2, 2013, 4:24 PM
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Which should mean good news for owners of recently built condos....as there could be a shortage when things pick up down the road.
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the conclusion I think anyone should draw is that the condo market has cooled; expect a lot less development activity over the next two or three years, especially on very large projects (by Ottawa standards).
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  #347  
Old Posted Oct 2, 2013, 4:30 PM
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Which should mean good news for owners of recently built condos....as there could be a shortage when things pick up down the road.
maybe? it's a weird business this business of finding buyers for outlines in space that might become apartments (i.e. homes) in three or four years time! I have a hard time "getting" it, guess that's why it's not the game for me, I just watch from the sidelines.

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  #348  
Old Posted Oct 2, 2013, 4:40 PM
S-Man S-Man is offline
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I have a feeling that the only thing developers will conclude from this is that "Ottawa doesn't want tall unique buildings, but rather short stubby boring ugly beige buildings"
I'm not so sure that's the case, at least on the part of the developers.

For one, those sites are already zoned for that new, taller height, and the city granted them that height. That potential height stays, even if it means waiting until an upsurge in the market (or for projects already in the pipe to be built).
Also, the state of the condo market nationwide (yes, even Toronto now) is clear to all in the bizniz, and they can see how many projects are already in the pipe in the Ottawa scene.
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  #349  
Old Posted Oct 2, 2013, 4:41 PM
JackBauer24 JackBauer24 is offline
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There are a few problems with this, and most don't have to do with "greedy" builders.

The cost of land itself. Any land that could have a condo built on it in a central location is expensive. Even once you've obtained the land, you have to go through a very expensive process with the city to get the zoning and density needed to build a condo. That process needs serious refining in Ottawa, when compared to the same process in Toronto, it's substantially more expensive - those costs get passed on to the condo purchaser through higher prices.

Next up is the lending practices of banks. Most builders have to work with a bank (or some type of lender) to get the adequate funds to build the project. But that loan doesn't cover the costs of hiring architects, building a sales office, paying for marketing materials (sales kits, radio ads, etc...) and the approval process itself. So it is possible (and has happened) that a builder forks out literally millions of dollars only to find out they can't get the zoning they need and the project never moves forward. Then the only play for the builder (unless they have deep pockets) is to sit on the land, let it increase in value and sell it off in hopes to re-coop the costs of the project that was never released. (please see Acquarello (sp??) as an example)

Now even if a builder creates the marketing, gets the zoning, opens their sales office and has their sales team start selling, they may never get the loan from their bank. With the tighter lending practices of the banks, builders now need over 70% (sometimes closer to 80%) pre-sales before the bank will lend the money - this threshold used to be 60-65% (please see Rhombus and Icon for examples).

And then comes Tarion into the equation. Tarion used to only require the developpers to come up with one date - as estimate time of completion. If that date was going to be late, the developer was allowed to push it back so long as they gave the purchasers 90 days notice. This completion date could be pushed back indefinitely without penalty as long as the 90 days notice was given. Obviously this created problems for the purchasers, they were depending on their new home being ready on X date, but that date became Y,Z, A, etc... and it was a real detriment to people looking to buy a newly constructed home. So Tarion steps in and changes the occupancy rules and adds an outside date - the latest date purchasers could take occupancy without penalty. If the occupancy date had to be pushed beyond the outside date, the purchaser than had the power to decide to move forward with the new closing date, or cancel the deal and get their money back. (please see 111 West for example) Now this new Tarion rule is fair for purchasers (and as a purchaser of a few condos myself, I have to admit I very much enjoy these new rules) but it's hardly fair for the developer. Developers can't start actually selling until they are registered with Tarion, at that time they are given the Tarion document which includes their estimated delivery date and outside date, and the clock starts ticking. So they have usually 2 years to sell, build and move people in before the outside date - in new construction delays are abundant and almost unavoidable, so it's rare that the estimated completion date will be met and far more likely the actual move in date will be the outside date. So developers risk potentially building 80% of their project, experiencing a delay (could be as simple as a shipment of supplies being late) and that could re-open all of the purchasers legal contracts and they can all run ship, leaving the Vendor with an almost completed project with no to little sales.

I know this is a long winded answer to your question, but as the price of land goes up and the banks get tighter and tighter, the cost of condos will not be dropping any time soon.

Quote:
Originally Posted by OTSkyline View Post
Sad... Could the whole Little Italy plan be shelved?

Also, I find it stupid that people say there is a "cooling" of the condo market. Prices are getting ridiculously out of hand, how about just lowering prices, then you'll have lots of sales. Everyone I know who are university graduates with good/ok paying jobs can't afford to buy houses or condos therefore EVERYONE is still renting...

I, for once, would love to buy a condo but it's not do-able but I can't afford it At $250,000 for a tiny 1 bedroom (not including taxes, condo fees, hydro & heating etc..). Why not build and launch condo towers with prices like these:
1 bed: 150,000
2 bed: 200,000
3 bed: 275,000 ?

-Probably because of greedy developpers...
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  #350  
Old Posted Oct 2, 2013, 5:20 PM
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waterloowarrior waterloowarrior is offline
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My guess on a simplistic proforma for a $310,000, 615 square foot unit in a building of this scale based on some Altus construction costs (assuming this is higher end of the spectrum), what they paid for the land ($9.022 million), and a 30% ratio for soft costs with around 10% profit. Anyone have a better guess?

$40,000 land costs
$165,000 construction cost
$70,000 soft costs (DC's/permits/marketing/lending etc)
$35,000 profit
______
$310,000
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  #351  
Old Posted Oct 2, 2013, 7:08 PM
teej1984 teej1984 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OTSkyline View Post
Sad... Could the whole Little Italy plan be shelved?

Also, I find it stupid that people say there is a "cooling" of the condo market. Prices are getting ridiculously out of hand, how about just lowering prices, then you'll have lots of sales. Everyone I know who are university graduates with good/ok paying jobs can't afford to buy houses or condos therefore EVERYONE is still renting...

I, for once, would love to buy a condo but it's not do-able but I can't afford it At $250,000 for a tiny 1 bedroom (not including taxes, condo fees, hydro & heating etc..). Why not build and launch condo towers with prices like these:
1 bed: 150,000
2 bed: 200,000
3 bed: 275,000 ?

-Probably because of greedy developpers...
As one of those young professionals with a pretty well paying job, I agree, the cost is just out of my league. Renting will suffice... guess the "dream" of not living in a suburb isn't really possible for the avg non-owner.
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  #352  
Old Posted Oct 2, 2013, 7:19 PM
JackBauer24 JackBauer24 is offline
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If you want to be more central and want new construction but find the downtown condo prices too high - check out Alta Vista Ridge. It's not a luxury downtown condo, but it's fairly central, good value and low prices.

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Originally Posted by teej1984 View Post
As one of those young professionals with a pretty well paying job, I agree, the cost is just out of my league. Renting will suffice... guess the "dream" of not living in a suburb isn't really possible for the avg non-owner.
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  #353  
Old Posted Oct 2, 2013, 7:26 PM
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Design over functionality.....my god some units have 2, 3, 4 or even 8 (Penthouse) balconies...and they do not connect.

Their oval shape does not allow you to put much on them.

And imagine this...dear meet me on balcony number 4..oh the one from the east side of the dining room or again half my guests are on balcony 7 and half of them on balcony 8, even though they may still somewhat talk amongst themselves, you are OK until one of them tries to cross over from one to the other from the outside.
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  #354  
Old Posted Oct 2, 2013, 7:31 PM
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hard to believe that brand new construction with all the mod-cons, snazzy-finishes,* and extra amenities in a downtown location would be out of the reach of a single income first-time homebuyer? damn those greedy developers; damn them all to hell!



* Jack Bauer's mileage may vary on the relative snazziness of the finishes ;-)
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  #355  
Old Posted Oct 2, 2013, 7:46 PM
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snark aside, getting on the property escalator these days is tough; kids out of school have negative net worths, and savings for a down payment shrink relative to the price of a home in Ottawa since interest/investment rates are much lower than the average growth in property values in the central parts of the City. I get that. But new construction shouldn't be the benchmark of affordability.
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  #356  
Old Posted Oct 2, 2013, 8:14 PM
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Unhappy

Most kids may have negative net worths because they were not able to manage their studies, work (if they actually worked) and social activities.

There should be no excuse here...we are not in the US.

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snark aside, getting on the property escalator these days is tough; kids out of school have negative net worths, and savings for a down payment shrink relative to the price of a home in Ottawa since interest/investment rates are much lower than the average growth in property values in the central parts of the City. I get that. But new construction shouldn't be the benchmark of affordability.
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  #357  
Old Posted Oct 2, 2013, 8:23 PM
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based on your extensive anecdotal research, no doubt.
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  #358  
Old Posted Oct 2, 2013, 8:29 PM
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Most kids may have negative net worths because they were not able to manage their studies, work (if they actually worked) and social activities.

There should be no excuse here...we are not in the US.
Just because tuition is higher and minimum wage is lower in the States doesn't mean that we have it good; just that we have it better.

Tuition is $7,500 for Ontario students, with rent being $800+ per month ($9,600+) depending on where you're living and how you're living (do you have many roommates or a significant other to share a small place with?) You have to factor in whether we're paying utilities and internet, paying for transportation, we have groceries. We also have to pay textbooks, school supplies, and every so often a computer.

On average, you'll see students spending nearly $20,000 per year to pay for all of this, and yet minimum wage working 20 hours a week may only get you half of that.

On average, you'll find we may finish an undergrad with about $25,000 in debt, but with fewer well-being jobs available, it takes a while to pay this off and have a down payment for condos.

Speaking as a student who worked really hard, it's not because we're irresponsible with our money or partying a lot. It's because things are really expensive now, and we can't afford everything.
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  #359  
Old Posted Oct 2, 2013, 8:38 PM
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Originally Posted by defishel View Post
Just because tuition is higher and minimum wage is lower in the States doesn't mean that we have it good; just that we have it better.

Tuition is $7,500 for Ontario students, with rent being $800+ per month ($9,600+) depending on where you're living and how you're living (do you have many roommates or a significant other to share a small place with?) You have to factor in whether we're paying utilities and internet, paying for transportation, we have groceries. We also have to pay textbooks, school supplies, and every so often a computer.

On average, you'll see students spending nearly $20,000 per year to pay for all of this, and yet minimum wage working 20 hours a week may only get you half of that.

Would you take less min wage if it meant College etc was cheaper?

On average, you'll find we may finish an undergrad with about $25,000 in debt, but with fewer well-being jobs available, it takes a while to pay this off and have a down payment for condos.

Speaking as a student who worked really hard, it's not because we're irresponsible with our money or partying a lot. It's because things are really expensive now, and we can't afford everything.
Would you take less min wage if it meant College etc was cheaper?
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  #360  
Old Posted Oct 2, 2013, 8:44 PM
JackBauer24 JackBauer24 is offline
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The best move I made right out of university was getting an older 3 bdrm townhouse, which I still own to this day. I was able to rent out two rooms while living there, which brought my living costs to under $300/month and built up some nice equity in 2 years. Afterwards, I rented out the whole house and I took that equity and bought another town house, lived in it for a year or two and took the equity from both to buy a new condo. And so on, and so on....

I'll admit it is difficult to get started, especially as a student with debt, but if you put aside your vision of your dream home and look at your first few homes as a way to move up the property ladder, than you'll do just fine. I find the problem with a lot of first-time buyers is that they're dreams are much bigger than their wallets and try to save up for that perfect home. If you're renting and are right out of school, you'll be saving for an awfully long time until you'll be able to buy anything.

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Originally Posted by McC View Post
snark aside, getting on the property escalator these days is tough; kids out of school have negative net worths, and savings for a down payment shrink relative to the price of a home in Ottawa since interest/investment rates are much lower than the average growth in property values in the central parts of the City. I get that. But new construction shouldn't be the benchmark of affordability.
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