Winnipeg Construction VIII

[steveosnyder]

Originally Posted by ctochico

i have been doing the exact same thing for the past 5 years or so...i look everyday just to see whats out there and the market. im always looking out to possibly purchase condos and rent them out..thats what i plan on doing with mine, after living in it for a bit first, its just a matter of getting more financially and picking the right ones to invest.

i believe the units downtown will still increase as the city becomes more dense. the competition out there for condos is no different from purchasing homes in other neighbourhoods, theres always going to be something better, its just a matter how much you can afford.

A bit off topic, but what sort of margins do you get buying one condo and renting it out? How much do you leverage youself to actually make a good ROI? I've been looking at the numbers and I just can't justify it.

[Cyro]

Originally Posted by esquire

Somewhat paradoxically, more supply could also end up driving prices higher by growing the market for residential properties downtown. If more construction leads to the emergence of a thriving downtown residential community, it could encourage more people to consider moving there.

Edmonton, which is a very similar city, is a good example of this phenomenon: 15 years ago, downtown living was a bit of a niche much as it is here now. Condos downtown were pretty cheap. However, a condo building boom took place in the 2000s and it gave rise to lively, safe downtown streets... the new buildings and vibrant neighbourhood appeal to a much broader segment of the population. So in the end thousands of condos were built and snapped up, but prices are actually quite a bit higher now than they were previously as far more people are interested in living downtown than before those condos were built.

Obviously the Fortress plan is just one building, but it would be great to see a residential cluster emerge along Graham Avenue (as with Edmonton's 104 St.) ... Graham's location and scale would make it a logical place to see some more condo buildings go up.

Great example of the opposite perspective Esquire.But as you mentioned this occurred in 2000. Edmontons population is still much higher today as it was in 2000. Edmontons buisness downtown community is much more developed than Winnipeg's and people may be more interested in staying close to work rather than a long commute. Urban sprawl is much more a problem in Edmonton than here.

We are just starting to experience some of the problems they have been dealing with for years, (as for safety density will help, although edmonton is having problems with downtown issues) As for the location of the project, I can't disagree with it. Very close to Winnipeg's downtown buisness community,RRC campus, etc., those most likely to purchase and live in the core.

[ctochico]

Originally Posted by steveosnyder

A bit off topic, but what sort of margins do you get buying one condo and renting it out? How much do you leverage youself to actually make a good ROI? I've been looking at the numbers and I just can't justify it.

well im looking at it from 2 possible situations,

first and hopeful situation - we can pay off the condo in 5 years, then if we rent it out...any rent would be profit

second situation - if the mortgage is not paid off yet, the ROI probably wouldnt' be much, if any, at first, i think as long as you put your renting price reasonable to at least pay off the principal, then i think its still a good investment. just gotta make sure could handle it financially. its pretty much a long term investment, at the end of it, you have someone paying of your mortgage while you just pay the interest.

[khabibulin]

Originally Posted by ctochico

well im looking at it from 2 possible situations,

first and hopeful situation - we can pay off the condo in 5 years, then if we rent it out...any rent would be profit

second situation - if the mortgage is not paid off yet, the ROI probably wouldnt' be much, if any, at first, i think as long as you put your renting price reasonable to at least pay off the principal, then i think its still a good investment. just gotta make sure could handle it financially. its pretty much a long term investment, at the end of it, you have someone paying of your mortgage while you just pay the interest.

Even with the mortgage paid off, all rent would not be profit. As a condo you will have to pay condo fees and also probably want to do some annual interior maintenance to keep the place fresh and not looking run down.

[ctochico]

Originally Posted by khabibulin

Even with the mortgage paid off, all rent would not be profit. As a condo you will have to pay condo fees and also probably want to do some annual interior maintenance to keep the place fresh and not looking run down.

well..profit as in not coming out of my pocket. the condo i purchased is brand new, so wouldn't really need much of a maintenance...just some clean up here and there assuming the tenants don't efff it up

[chrisallard5454]

Originally Posted by Authentic_City

Who knows how accurate the Free Press report is, but the latest article says fortress is "close to finalizing a leasing deal with a national grocery store chain". If this is true, it would be a coup for downtown and a real selling point for the development.

It's hard to to get excited about the proposal when it has all these goodies attached to it!

Well those were the exact words that were used during the presentation, so I would consider them to be fairly accurate.

[steveosnyder]

Originally Posted by ctochico

well..profit as in not coming out of my pocket. the condo i purchased is brand new, so wouldn't really need much of a maintenance...just some clean up here and there assuming the tenants don't efff it up

I'm going to add something to this in the Western Expresso thread, I think most of the people here don't want to read my random spoutings

[bomberjet]

Sooo, what kind of height are we looking at for Fortress? Any ideas or estimates. If everything goes forward, could we be looking at a tower approaching 600'?

[DancingDuck]

I think 550' would be a safe guess. Fortress said it's equivilant to a 55 story building, average ten feet per floor, and there you go. 600' feet is probably out of the question, unfortunately.

[bomberjet]

Originally Posted by DancingDuck

I think 550' would be a safe guess. Fortress said it's equivilant to a 55 story building, average ten feet per floor, and there you go. 600' feet is probably out of the question, unfortunately.

Ahh yes, good point. Can't really complain about a 550' tower though!

[Coldrsx]

Wonder how that roof will take snow.

[trueviking]

Originally Posted by esquire

Somewhat paradoxically, more supply could also end up driving prices higher by growing the market for residential properties downtown. If more construction leads to the emergence of a thriving downtown residential community, it could encourage more people to consider moving there.

Edmonton, which is a very similar city, is a good example of this phenomenon: 15 years ago, downtown living was a bit of a niche much as it is here now. Condos downtown were pretty cheap. However, a condo building boom took place in the 2000s and it gave rise to lively, safe downtown streets... the new buildings and vibrant neighbourhood appeal to a much broader segment of the population. So in the end thousands of condos were built and snapped up, but prices are actually quite a bit higher now than they were previously as far more people are interested in living downtown than before those condos were built.

Obviously the Fortress plan is just one building, but it would be great to see a residential cluster emerge along Graham Avenue (as with Edmonton's 104 St.) ... Graham's location and scale would make it a logical place to see some more condo buildings go up.

absolutely....there isn't a finite number of people who will live downtown and once they have all bought condos its over...the market needs to be created and that happens by building active sidewalks, walkable neighbourhoods (open portage and main) and providing the amenities that makes urban living attractive....right now the option is essentially live a suburban life in the suburbs or a suburban life in a tower downtown.....once we have an urban culture, which only comes from having people live there, the option will be urban life or suburban life and the market will stand on its own.

i always say: people don't live in downtown winnipeg because nobody lives in downtown winnipeg.

[The Jabroni]

First of all, I have to say, this is starting to get really exciting. Of course, I can't get too excited until the shovels hit the ground, but it does look promising. Bringing people to downtown should start with more people LIVING downtown.

Second, I can't imagine having a new tallest would feel like. I was only 2 years old when the TD Centre/Canwest Tower/201 Portage was opened in 1989, so it's been almost 25 years since.

Originally Posted by chrisallard5454

Regarding the grocery tenant, who owns the Independent chain? That is a major chain throughout Ontario.

That would be Loblaw Companies Limited, the same folks who own Superstore, and any remaining Extra Foods locations and future No Frills locations, the latter which is also popular in Ontario and Alberta.

Honestly, I can see Sobey's or an Extra Foods/No Frills in there as a grocery chain.

[bomberjet]

Extra foods is too cheap for this type place, imo. People with $2m condos shopping at the bargain store just doesn't seem like a thing. I shop there sometimes so don't get me wrong. But sobeys looks like a better fit to me.

[chrisallard5454]

Originally Posted by trueviking

the market needs to be created and that happens by building active sidewalks, walkable neighbourhoods (open portage and main) and providing the amenities that makes urban living attractive....

My friend and I were talking about that while walking North Bound on Donald today. If every street downtown had that kind of charm it would be hard for anyone to argue against living downtown, anyone who would naturally want to of course.

[Authentic_City]

Originally Posted by chrisallard5454

Well those were the exact words that were used during the presentation, so I would consider them to be fairly accurate.

Great to hear! I wasn't sure if the Free Press was exaggerating that detail. It all sounds very exciting!

[rrskylar]

Never has this thread been this busy since the great CMHR debates a few years back.

[1ajs]

maybe the aspers will finaly wake uwomder if the aspers will wake up

[CoryB]

In terms on the grocery chain for the Fortress development, they are reported to have said they are talking to a "national chain" which means Loblaws, Sobey's or perhaps Whole Foods.

In terms of analysis on who it might be let's start with Sobey's. They are neck deep in a major corporate acquisition (Safeway) that normally puts most organizations' expansion plans on-hold. Granted in a five-star property falls in your lap you will still try act on it. Sobey's also has a model for urban stores and they actually have some recent history in downtown Winnipeg as the supplier to the store on Donald.

In terms of Whole Foods, they have expressed interest in expanding across Canada and they have a reputation of being more up-market which could work in a building with $2 million residential units. It is hard to say if they are viewed as a national chain but they would also likely be a draw to some extent like Ikea. This is a definite long shot.

In terms of Loblaws, they have a number of different chains they operate and more than a few than could fit here which would be new to Winnipeg. Maybe my experience with Extra Foods is different than others but I have shopped there recently. My take is that the prices are roughly the same as Superstore they just have less choices in some categories and obviously most of the non-food items aren't there either. My take is that something like Extra Foods could work. A more interesting possibility though is their Nutshell brand but it is really new and might not even be around long enough to see construction though to completion. Another possibility is the Loblaw's could open an expanded format Shopper's with a greatly expanded grocery section. With the wide range of choices, I think it could be Loblaw's signing the lease on the space and committing to a specific brand closer to opening.

[roccerfeller]

Really diggin' the rendering and all the amenities. Nice stand out building from all the other ones in the Peg. If it ends up being in the 550' range that would be spectacular.

I really like their "this will be built!" attitude