YVR Airport & Sea Island Developments Discussion

[Kapten]

Any chance that Air Canada or Air France will launch service to CDG from YVR?

Will Swiss someday operate YVR-ZRH?

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by Kapten

Any chance that Air Canada or Air France will launch service to CDG from YVR?

Will Swiss someday operate YVR-ZRH?

Chance is an appropriate word. Yes there is always a "chance."

I believe we will see AC launch YVR-FRA on its own metal before anything to CDG.

Edelweiss does fly summer seasonal twice weekly flights to ZRH from YVR. Swiss does code-share on this route.

[Hourglass]

^^ Agree. AC would look to FRA before CDG. Major Star Alliance hub, code-sharing with LH and all that.

Interesting to note that Delta is really building up their Asian operations in Seattle, adding HKG and ICN next year. By my count, that will give DL 42 flights/week to Asian destinations next summer. That's more than what Air Canada has out of its YVR "Asian hub" currently.

YVR still has more flights to Asia and Europe, but SEA is catching up fast.

[Spork]

Originally Posted by SFUVancouver

I haven't been to the airport in close to a year, so I haven't seen first-hand how the designer outlet mall is progressing. Could anyone who frequents the area offer an update? Are they still at the site prep stage?

Still in pre-loading stage. I don't even think they are finished delivering all of the pre-loading materials.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by Spork

Still in pre-loading stage. I don't even think they are finished delivering all of the pre-loading materials.

Not surprising. Anything being built on Sea Island requires ages for the pre-loading to settle. The joys of being on a "flood-plain."

[cyeg66]

July:

http://www.yvr.ca/Libraries/Aviation_Marketing/1992-2013_Pax_July_2013.sflb.ashx

Nice stats. Capacity boost in virtually all (most) sectors yielding results.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by cyeg66

July:

http://www.yvr.ca/Libraries/Aviation_Marketing/1992-2013_Pax_July_2013.sflb.ashx

Nice stats. Capacity boost in virtually all (most) sectors yielding results.

This doc has a good comparison to July 2012:

http://yvr.ca/Libraries/Aviation_Marketing/July_Traffic_Update.sflb.ashx

Highlights:

Highest July ever
Highest July Domestic ever
Highest July Asia Pacific ever

Domestic up 3.5%
Transborder up 4.3%
Asia Pacific up 5.9% (CA, MU, CZ increases)
Europe Scheduled up 13% (LH MUC)
Europe Charter down 13.1% (reduced TS flying)
Europe overall up 2.7%
Misc International down 12.3% (slightly lower Sun destination flying) a very minuscule sector only ~ 18-20k pax per month in summer normally. You gain or lose one weekly 738 and this blows the stats one way or the other.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by Hourglass

^^ Agree. AC would look to FRA before CDG. Major Star Alliance hub, code-sharing with LH and all that.

Interesting to note that Delta is really building up their Asian operations in Seattle, adding HKG and ICN next year. By my count, that will give DL 42 flights/week to Asian destinations next summer. That's more than what Air Canada has out of its YVR "Asian hub" currently.

YVR still has more flights to Asia and Europe, but SEA is catching up fast.

If the trend continues, will that not eclipse YVR as the "Asian gateway," esp for US passengers currently transiting through YVR? YVR's importance as an airport hinges largely on Asian connections. If we lose that primacy, what are the longer-term implications?

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

If the trend continues, will that not eclipse YVR as the "Asian gateway," esp for US passengers currently transiting through YVR? YVR's importance as an airport hinges largely on Asian connections. If we lose that primacy, what are the longer-term implications?

I don't get your approach to this?

Look at the recent pax stats. YVR just posted its highest July Asia Pacific stats ever. And this trend will continue through the winter (ie most of these recent flight increase announcements are being made permanent year-round additions). Go back through this thread and you will see that. So not only is SEA getting some great new flights/routes, but so is YVR, quite significantly. I also have some information that YVR will get some more Asian flights as well AND more European flights.

I do not understand what you mean by eclipse YVR as "the" Asian gateway. SFO and LAX are by far larger Asia Pacific markets on the west coast. In fact increases in capacity are being realised right up and down the west coast. This includes SEA, YVR, SFO and LAX.

Also, the reliance on US passengers feeding the Asian flights is much less important now compared to when CP had its large Asian operations.

The pie is a big one, it's getting bigger so plenty for everyone... so don't be so worried mate.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

I don't get your approach to this?

Look at the recent pax stats. YVR just posted its highest July Asia Pacific stats ever. And this trend will continue through the winter (ie most of these recent flight increase announcements are being made permanent year-round additions). Go back through this thread and you will see that. So not only is SEA getting some great new flights/routes, but so is YVR, quite significantly. I also have some information that YVR will get some more Asian flights as well AND more European flights.

I do not understand what you mean by eclipse YVR as "the" Asian gateway. SFO and LAX are by far larger Asia Pacific markets on the west coast. In fact increases in capacity are being realised right up and down the west coast. This includes SEA, YVR, SFO and LAX.

Also, the reliance on US passengers feeding the Asian flights is much less important now compared to when CP had its large Asian operations.

The pie is a big one, it's getting bigger so plenty for everyone... so don't be so worried mate.

Thank you for that feedback. It's reassuring. My fear was that Vancouver would be "eclipsed" by SEA-TAC in most overseas markets, but as you point out, this is surely not the case, so thanks again.

[LeftCoaster]

So what if it's eclipsed, there are more than enough passengers for multiple asian hubs, expecially when you have different alliances serving different airports.

It seems as though Vancouver is a major star alliance hub while Seattle is a major Skyteam asian hub.

Seattle LAX San Fran and Vancouver could all share the duties and still enjoy lots of growth and passengers.

It's not like there's only one hub to hop over the Atlantic to Europe.

[connect2source]

Although the July numbers are encouraging, it's been a rather lethargic and slow return to the 2008 figures, I would have thought it would have taken less than 5 years to eclipse 2008

At this rate, we're about 70K over last year's numbers so it may very well be 2014 'til be trump 2008.

[SFUVancouver]

Originally Posted by Spork

Still in pre-loading stage. I don't even think they are finished delivering all of the pre-loading materials.

Thank you.

[Hourglass]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

So what if it's eclipsed, there are more than enough passengers for multiple asian hubs, expecially when you have different alliances serving different airports.

It seems as though Vancouver is a major star alliance hub while Seattle is a major Skyteam asian hub.

Seattle LAX San Fran and Vancouver could all share the duties and still enjoy lots of growth and passengers.

It's not like there's only one hub to hop over the Atlantic to Europe.

Yes, there is enough growth from Asia to go around.

On the other hand, it's worth noting that this is a highly competitive environment. YYC is building a major terminal expansion and gunning for a share of Asian traffic. SEA has a new parallel runway. So yes, Delta setting up a major transit hub just 120 miles down the road DOES impact Vancouver.

A potential result I see is that the number of passengers from the Lower Mainland flying via SEA will increase, driven by lower fares and better connectivity to other US destinations. Canadian airports operate at a cost disadvantage relative to their US counterparts, due to higher fuel costs as well as government taxes and fees (eg. YVR paid >$39 million in ground rent to the federal government in 2012).

The other issue with SEA's proximity to YVR is that international airlines wanting to serve the Pacific Northwest might choose to serve one or the other, but not both (BA and LH being notable exceptions). Delta's strong hub in SEA makes it a more attractive choice for onward connections.

Bottom line is YVR's hub status could be affected, which impacts Vancouver not only economically, but also in terms of network diversity and frequency.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by Hourglass

Yes, there is enough growth from Asia to go around.

On the other hand, it's worth noting that this is a highly competitive environment. YYC is building a major terminal expansion and gunning for a share of Asian traffic. SEA has a new parallel runway. So yes, Delta setting up a major transit hub just 120 miles down the road DOES impact Vancouver.

A potential result I see is that the number of passengers from the Lower Mainland flying via SEA will increase, driven by lower fares and better connectivity to other US destinations. Canadian airports operate at a cost disadvantage relative to their US counterparts, due to higher fuel costs as well as government taxes and fees (eg. YVR paid >$39 million in ground rent to the federal government in 2012).

The other issue with SEA's proximity to YVR is that international airlines wanting to serve the Pacific Northwest might choose to serve one or the other, but not both (BA and LH being notable exceptions). Delta's strong hub in SEA makes it a more attractive choice for onward connections.

Bottom line is YVR's hub status could be affected, which impacts Vancouver not only economically, but also in terms of network diversity and frequency.

That's rather what I was thinking when I posted the question. YVR Asia traffic could be drawn off by lower fares on DL out of SEA TAC. And as you added, YVR's hub status could be weakened, as you say, "in terms of network diversity and frequency." And that's bad news.
[please excuse this response as contradictory to the one I just posted, but I think Hourglass hit the nail on the head here]

[twoNeurons]

Like it has been said:
YVR is Star Alliance
SEA is SkyTeam

ICN is likely because they would codeshare with Korean Airlines, which is SkyTeam and ICN is a major hub.

In other news, AC is now charging for a 2nd piece of luggage to Japan. JAL (OneWorld) still does not.

[Gordon]

A year or so back the provincial tax of aviation fuel was removed which was removed on international flights.

[deasine]

Originally Posted by twoNeurons

ICN is likely because they would codeshare with Korean Airlines, which is SkyTeam and ICN is a major hub.

Keep in mind though that DL and KE aren't on the greatest terms (no presence of an Asian JV, little flight/timing cooperations between DL/KE, many restrictions/exceptions for SkyTeam Elite Plus members travelling on KE, etc.).

Update: to further prove my point, look at this recent announcement: http://boardingarea.com/pointsmilesandma...m_medium=facebook&utm_source=twitterfeed

[Johnny Aussie]

^^^ I have been meaning to reply again about SEA but no time... here we go!

1) The airline industry has always been a highly competitive one, what industry technically isn't?
2) YYC is definitely building an amazing new international terminal which may steal some Asian traffic. Economically, one could argue YYC would have an advantage, but don't discount YVR's business ties with Asia. This is still huge. Geographically and ethnically, YVR will still garner an advantage.
3) SEA's "new" parallel runway is now 5 years old actually and SEA growth has been less than YVR mainly during this period.
4) be careful using the terms "major" and "hub" in the same sentence. Even DL does not consider SEA a hub. Adding 3 more daily international flights may make them change SEA to the definition of a mini-hub. This operation is by no means a major hub. On the same note, I do not see YVR as a major hub either. In fact, I would use the term hub for YVR quite loosely.
5) The lower fares argument. Yes, this will aways be a factor for YVR. BUT, is this anything new? No. Ever since the 1980s YVR has always had to deal with passenger spillage to the south. Recently, BLI and SEA. But again, this is nothing "new" to deal with. Crossing the border these days is not as easy as it was 12 years ago. If YVR's transborder numbers (in particular) were declining at a rapid rate, I would say the BLI/SEA effect is realy significant. Absolutely, YVR would have even more transborder traffic without BLI and SEA so close, but look at the recent growth in stats. Not bad.
6) KE, BR and DE also serve both YVR and SEA. Recently, Hainan, Icelandair and Emirates have started SEA. But China Eastern, China Southern and Sichuan have commenced YVR. Interesting to note JL, MU and CI all served both YVR and SEA at the same time, but all 3 have pulled out of SEA.

In conclusion, yes this may have an impact on YVR, but I don't think it is in the category of "doom and gloom."

[nname]

Low fare? I don't think trans-pacific flights from SEA are that cheap anymore. It used to be 5-10 years ago, but now they seems to be pretty much the same...

Just some example of some flights on October I find on Google - both YVR and SEA departures and arrivals are on the same date.

SEA-NRT: DL $1194, UA $1235, 1-stop $948
YVR-NRT: AC $1064, 1-stop $989

SEA-HKG: 1-stop $906
YVR-HKG: AC $901, 1-stop $1063

SEA-TPE: BR $1259, 1-stop $1173
YVR-TPE: CI $1254, BR $1256, 1-stop $1199

Is flying from SEA that much cheaper than YVR?