Quote:
Originally Posted by bunt_q
Exactly. That was sort of my point in a reply to Wizened that I think got lost/never posted. But it's odd to be that we'd assume the solution to a poor India-like society is more transit, when the best transit in the world seems to be associated with the wealthy. (Although, even then, probably not the top-10%... the uber rich are a different breed altogether.)
I think a lot of that assumption comes from Wizened's view of the Delhi Metro as some sort of gold standard for effectively and comfortably moving the destitute masses. Which is a characterization that still astounds me.
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No. The point is that EVEN the new Delhi metro is better than Fastracks will be.
The Gold Standard is in Japan, which built much of it's system when it was rather poor.
My point has been all along that a large(r) percentage of transportation planning needs to deal with preparing for the "possibility" of whatever.
Here is a basic paper on US population projection and public transportation.
www4.uwm.edu/cuts/2050/demo2050.pdf
where the high versus low projection for 2050 varies between 314.7 million and 553 million for 2050. A middle projection of 404 million is discussed.
In addition, current population demographics and public transit usage are discussed.
My point here is the requirement to plan more for the maximum, as public transportation planning for that maximum will increase system efficiency regardless of what the population turns out to be in 2050. In addition, the lower the eventual population turns out to be, IMO, the higher the percentage of the population that will use it.
Now, cross correlate that with the (good) possibility that a significant percentage of whatever the population is in 2050, will have less money to spend on transportation. This illustrates the (likely) possibility that the percentage of population using public transportation in 2050 will likely be larger than in 2013, so the range of possible usage is even greater than defined by 314.7 - 553 million.
I have my opinion, as do we all.