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Originally Posted by coyotetrickster
Very shortsighted perspective. You don't build infrastructure for immediate needs. The entire structure to accommodate these changes is underway now, as the CalTrain electrification comes on line and eventually the high speed rail, this will be a goldmine for the long-term investors. Property is built and owned as long-term investments. As the building cost is amortized it turns into almost pure cashflow for the investors.
There will be plenty of 50+ stories around the terminal.
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If all the future train projects had more certainty of happening, then I'd agree. But Caltrain's extension is tenuous and HSR is even more of a pipe-dream, not to mention a boondoggle that Californians will quickly realize can't be afforded. BART and Muni currently go through Market St.--there's slim chance that they'll be rerouted through the new terminal. Also, at some point you do have to care about the time horizon. If new infrastructure doesn't materialize for 30+ years, then the transbay center was underutilized for 30+ years, which represents a major financial loss. By the time that infrastructure does materialize, the center will need to be significantly renovated, repaired, and largely rebuilt, etc. to accommodate new infrastructure
that area of transbay (and the area around it), given its location, would have been highly valuable no matter what use it was put towards--transport or just more buildings. In fact, my precise argument is that its value would have been higher both in the short and long term if it wasn't put towards this transportation terminal that will probably just house some buses for the next 20+ years.
your argument suggests that all infrastructure and development is good without a proper cost-benefit analysis considering the time frame and certainty of the actual benefits. I'm fairly pro-development, but I'm not in favor of building ghost towns or empty transit centers that are common across places like Europe and China today. There has to be some certainty that the developments will have economic pay off, and more economic pay off than alternative projects