Quote:
Originally Posted by atlantaguy
Sigh.
Nothing more than the your usual opinion, interjected with snarky digs and insults - in MY opinion.
You make Atlanta sound like it's the end of civilization outside of Midtown, which I find beyond ridiculous. All of this development beyond Midtown DOES NOT happen in some mysterious vacuum.
|
First of all it was my harsh criticisms of Midtown that got me "in trouble" with folks like you, and second of all I'm an equal opportunity opiner - I have positives and negatives to say about all areas and I'm hear to look at people's construction updates and join in various conversations.
But regarding this, aside from sharing the same opinion with many posters and many other folks in general, you can look at the numbers:
A) With huge swings between parcels' values in both areas, overall land prices in both areas are basically the same in the grand scheme of things. The dichotomy between either, and relative to achievable rents in either is not the same you find in many cities with much less available land to develop in the core CBDs.
- Camden's putting up a huge low density development right near E. Andrews on 36 acres in Buckhead while John Draper just put up 210 units on 2.4 acres next door and JLB put up 375 units on a few acres a half mile away - all of these will have basically the same rents ($1.85-$2.00 range). Camden paid over $1M/acre and Draper paid $2.8M/acre. Some folks have paid $5-10M/acre in Atlanta, and rents as we have seen all being relatively the same as of late, whether it's office or multifamily, only density comes up, and usually not that much as most parcels simply aren't that expensive relative to the norm. So Draper puts up 100 units/acre at $2psf rents. If Novare pays 4x for land, knowing that it will essentially achieve the same rents, it needs to put up 400 units/acre, which we are now finally seeing in bits and pieces...there's a reason why so many other cities have such crazy dense skylines that taper off sharply while Atlanta's is so spread out...
B) Available development sites are arguably more abundant in Midtown, but both have plenty of sites. The question is can Buckhead's development sites reach their highest and best use with the limitations of the infrastructure there? Again, I point to the wild swing we have in Buckhead in particular with sites. Post wants to do a 26 story tower on some wedged site near the mall while Camden is doing basically garden style on 36 acres right near the heart of Buckhead village. This tells me that developers in Buckhead are trying to "capture" a limited market that works in Buckhead (clearly neither's development is targeting Millennials - more like aged renters in their 30s, pre-families, even empty nesters). I argue that developments such as JLB's Village at Buckhead are being built to provide closer access to work for Millennials who are held captive by the FIRE industries' decision to be in Buckhead, while developments are sprouting up in Midtown like weeds (or Inman Park, the Westside) simply because the 20-something renters actually prefer to be there in general, even if they work up in Buckhead.
C) Rents for both office and multifamily are equivalent, and I would imagine hotel rates are equivalent outside of luxury (which obviously are higher in Buckhead). If office developments take hold again, they are likely to be focused on the Perimeter and in Midtown, not Buckhead. Buckhead killed a lot of lenders and people in the last cycle, and is still dominated by the not-yet-fully-recovered Atlanta FIRE industry. Midtown still attracts the silk stocking law firms who stick around for a while, the big consulting firms and accounting firms, now tech firms, etc. Perimeter seems to be attracting more 21st century growth industries as well. What big strides is Buckhead making outside of FIRE? I think the Atlanta "traffic" conversation will start to become eponymous with Buckhead if it hasn't already, and will negatively effect it. Office employment drives high end infill multifamily development. If Buckhead's not going to put up more office towers at some point, and I think there are limitations there, then there will be less demand for more of this apartment infill. If Midtown fills up and PCM's 400,000 SF fills up at a higher than average employment density of ~1:115 SF, which is normal for tech, you're talking almost 3,500 office employees in PCM and more on the way in new towers in Midtown - apartments will continue to follow in the area.
So virtually all else the same -
1) Midtown has far far far superior access, both in terms of highway, transit AND connectivity to in-demand neighborhoods where both employees and employers live (not all employers live in Buckhead or Sandy Springs any longer and the local employee profile of Buckhead only seems to suit Buckhead specific employment).
We've all worked in Atlanta, so we all know that our coworkers are coming in from all over tarnation. Buckhead is by far the least accessible business district and I don't think anyone denies that.
2) Midtown is far more convenient to Atlanta's universities and graduates, whether local graduates or transplants. Census numbers show such trends and the superior access also makes MT more convenient to grads who may be living in Smyrna or other parts of the metro.
3) Midtown has far more things going on and more amenities such as parks.
The fact also remains that developers in Midtown are focusing much more on the Millennial generation than developers in Buckhead. It's hard to argue that Buckhead will reach its peak much sooner than Midtown because the limitations are there in the short term. This is beside my conjecture of working there and how I personally do not think that Buckhead is desirable for anything other than being able to constantly valet your car wherever you are, for high end shopping, the St. Regis bar scene, feeling special, etc. That's not a dig at Atlanta, that's a dig at Buckhead.
Prev
Linear Mode
